Cheltenham Festival
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Name your lay of the festival (with reason)
Name your lay of the festival (with reason)
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Replies: 172
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feck me, I am in complete agreement with Gabrial - must be the first time
I'll be agreeing with Budd next  |
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Didn`t we agree on Cue Card being a massive place lay in the KG Judo?  |
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Long Run - place lay.
A French thinker and when he is half way around in the GC he will remember the 3 hard races in defeat he has had and by the time he has clobbered 4/5 he will say phuck it. SWC will shovel the coal to keep him in contention but by 2 out the French thinker will be hating it and find zilch up the hill again. |
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trouble is he'll be 3.5 to be placed or higher AG
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So am I reading this correctly, the Gold Cup winner who broke the track record finds "zilch" up the hill.
Betfair forums earning its reputation with that gem |
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trouble is he'll be 3.5 to be placed or higher AG and?
The OP gave SDC as his lay. That price is bigger. |
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Byrney that was 2011. Last years race is more recent. hth
Are you still saying he was out sprinted by Synchronised from 4 out? |
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Grandouet,
Interrupted prep, 2nd run in 15 months, 1 from 4 at Cheltenham. |
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Read my analysis on other thread Gabrial.
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Long Run is attempting to regain a title and that has proven extremely difficult over many years. He is also trying to become only the second that I can see to win the following year after placing. Two extremely tough feats and that is enough for me to say he is very unlikely to win especially considering the strength of the race this year
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captain conan
I my opinon it is not good enough.Jumps great but only won last time out because the other horse stopped on the run in. Also keen to take on MTOY,very impressed last time out but that was streets ahead of anything else its shown, maybe a one hit wonder or maybe a big improver and i will be skint after the 1st. |
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MTOY, going up against a field full of improving novices. Many of whom are unexposed.
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Long Run is attempting to regain a title and that has proven extremely difficult over many years. He is also trying to become only the second that I can see to win the following year after placing. Two extremely tough feats and that is enough for me to say he is very unlikely to win especially considering the strength of the race this year
Spot on Judorick. The GC is a gruelling race and the history of the is scattered with horses who fail to recapture their peak form in the race after running failing the previous year. People will make excuses regarding pace for Long Run from the 2012 race but history tells us you need to be at a career peak to win the race. Disappoint in the race after this peak and there is no way back. Horses tell us they are not willing to go to the well again in this race. Long Run was telling us this last year. |
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Sir Des Champ is a massive improver over a trip on better ground. Don`t agree with you Howdie. 166 and will improve with conditions to suit.
Hurricane Fly is my lay of the festival - I always compare the Champion Hurdle to the 800 metres Olympic final. You need everything to fall into place unless you are different class to your opposition. Rattling off better ground i don`t think HF is in his comfort zone. You can make excuses for last year but it`s a tough race to win. I like the 800 metre analogy very good. |
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I`m pleased you comprehend the analogy Howdie.
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^^^ REPORTED
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Long Run. I think he'll run his race but will be collared by one or two of the younger horses. Silvianaco Conti and Sir Des Champs will both prove too good. Big call to oppose SDC howdi......Mullins camp like him a lot apparently.
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Sorry Howdi (without the `e`)
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Howdi's lay is my banker and I cannot have SDC beat. Crying out for the Gold Cup trip and will power home by 3l
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Captain Conan for me I think he is a bit of a boat and he might end up winning a midlands national some day.
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Howdi's special offer I'll be laying 6-1 SDC on Friday afternoon
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Think Hurricane Fly is massively underpriced. He is clearly a very possible winner but I'd want double his current price before I considered backing him.
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Hurricane Fly - ground wont suit, im also against backing horses to win their titles back as it simply doesn't pay, ran a good time last year but didnt win.
Dynaste - ground wont suit, always side with the big horrible irish bred horses in the rsa, price to short anyway, ages since a run. |
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Howdi.
really..i will be in down to balls,at that price. |
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Never thought I'd be saying this but mine is....Bobs Worth. Can't believe a horse can win the Gold Cup off the back of just one seasonal run
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indeed that is a major negative, how he remains favourite is a mystery
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Howdi - how much you laying at 6-1 and when on Friday? £1000 at 6s ok?
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Can't believe a horse can win the Gold Cup off the back of just one seasonal run
He improved 11 lb from last season on his seasonal bow. His form when fresh is right up with his best. In fact he improved 11 lb this season on his seasonal bow. Maybe a negative on trends but it is not a negative regarding Bobs Worth running up to his best mark. |
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He would be the second horse in history to win a Gold Cup with less than 6 chase starts
He would be the first horse in 22 years to win after one start. However, his record at the course is exceptional and he's won the right races. |
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I expect a huge drift on Bobs Worth as the Irish lump on Sir Des Champs and the UK get stuck into Nicholls and Walsh
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Being fresh will not stop him running to his mark. It`s whether that mark is good enough to win.
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Not sure that scrambling home from a non-stayer that was suffering from chronic bronchitis
is the best form going into the GC, SDC would be a lay for me. |
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On heavy ground Duffy.
Also take Flemenstar out of the race and SDC beat a 158 rated horse 25L. SDC is a good ground horse so anything his does in boggy Ireland is a bonus. |
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Accept the ground bit, but you can't take Flem out of the race because he was there and finishing close up at that,and I would have thought that the inconvenience suffered by SDC by way of the ground would be more than compensated for by what was working against Flem namely being a non-stayer against top quality stayers and suffering from a lung infection!
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Ok then Flemenstar beat a 158 rated animal 23L with a lung infection. They both ran up to around their marks. If the lung infection affected Flemenstar it didn`t affect his mark much over 3 miles.
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I just think that people are expecting too much from the horse by way of improvement on better ground, in relation to enabling him to actually win the race, it's a big leap of faith for me, especially when you compare him to BW who also likes good ground,also loves cheltenham, and although inexperienced through his chase runs, doesn't look it in his races, in as much that he travels jumps battles and is always at his strongest at the end of his races, and although hasn't run for a long time, is very very good when fresh.
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I agree with the effect of the "lung infection" "bronchitis", I don't think he was suffering from that sort of ailment for one minute, that was a bit of a joke, but, he doesn't stay against proper decent horses over 3 miles, and SDC should have beat him more, ground or not, SDC has got plenty of form on heavy too.
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Agree with you on BW Duffy, he has that `hard case bully` look about him. A real battler, he has everything needed to win a GC if chasing inexperience does not let him down.
I think what is in people`s minds regarding SDC is the way he travelled last at Chelts and he skipped around the course and when asked picked up with ease. What he does on heavy ground will be inferior to what he does on better ground. He does not seem to have any question marks about him being suited to the race. However BW looks more GC to me, but only just. |
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It would have to be My Tent or Yours for me.
I think is looks a very good Supreme this year, the fact last seasons Bumper Winner, who was impressive last time out is 16/1 tells you that! So I just cannot believe this horse is 13/8. Deserves to be favourite for sure, but I just cant have him this short. There is every chance he prefers it very soft imo, and the conditions on the day just might not suit him that well. Some may say I'm daft, but I also have the fact AP rides him as a negative. |
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"hard case bully", I like that description
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