Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2013 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2013 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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Tricast in the Champion Hurdle as well to boot.
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Hope it keeps going, especially in the last race!
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Great start - well done JOCI!
Interesting to see other stats threads/sites. The weighting applied to the trends appear to be equally (if not more) important than the trends themselves imo. |
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Cheers, not a bad day today. Managed to get the first 5 winners, which was my best first day ever. That also included Champagne Fever @ 23 and even better Golden Chieftain, who came top of the ratings after the overnight declarations, came in at 36! Brilliant to see Hurricane Fly come back to form, and Quevega to battle back from a seemingly impossible position. For those of you who got my spreadsheet, then hope you managed to be on a couple of the winners. The trends even called the first 2 home in a couple of races. Let's not get carried away though, as tomorrow could be a completely different proposition.
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Not bad
 very well done Joci |
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JOCI , can you tell me why Drawn N Drank is so low in your ratings for the Hunt chase when he appears to tick nearly all the boxes ? thanks
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top notch joci
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Well done for yesterday Joci, wish I'd seen the thread then would have been top of the local Nap - oh well can't complain am still in second.
Selections look good for today as well the only one I'm not sure about is Boston Bob, he's a definite lay for me, although saying that I normally have at least one wrong a day so may well be that one. |
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Another decent day today. Three winners, The New One was 100% rated, and a decent price at 6s. Then the machine, Sprinter Sacre at 1/4 and managed to find the winner of the Coral Cup, Medinas at 42/1 on the Tote (however I did back my top 5 rated in that race to spread my risk) and was concentrating on one of my other selections Ericht, when Medinas came from the clouds. Bit unlucky in the RSA as Boston Bob fell when in front at the last, but cannot be too greedy. Tomorrow I like Dynaste, Top of the Range, First Lieutenant, have backed both Reve de Sivola and Oscar Whisky, and Arabella Boy in the Cross Country. still working on the trends for the Byrne and Kim Muir, but beer getting in the way. Good luck tomorrow.
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hmmm... I dont see mention of The New One (supposedly 100% rated ?) or Medinas - what gives ?
1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150 Grin 2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25 2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3 3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP 4:00 Pendra @ 11 4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23 5:15 Purple Bay @ 44 |
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No winners on Thursday, and only a second place for First Lieutenant. The big handicaps had to wait til last minute due to time constraints of going through the large fields, but Medinas came out top rated and was backed on the day. The New One was top rated, but as I had a big fancy for Pont Alexandre, I ended up backing both. For tomorrow, we have 1:30 Far West 2:05 Undecided 2:40 At Fishers Cross 3:20 Sir Des Champs 4:00 Creevytennant and Salsify 4:40 and 5:15 Undecided. Good luck.
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1:30 Far West 76%; Our Conor 74% - have backed both
2:05 Edgardo Sol 91%; Kings Lad 91%; Brampour 86%; Abbey Lane 86%; Dan Breen 84%; Ted Veale 84% - backed Edgardo Sol, Kings Lad and Ted Veale 2:40 At Fishers Cross 86%; African Gold 73% - main bet AFC and saver AG 3:20 Sir Des Champs 94%, Long Run 89%, Silviniaco Continue 83% - backed SDC and SC 4:00 Salsify 93%, Divine Intavention 90%' Creevytennant 89% - backed all three 4:40 No trends - Backed Gevrey Chambertain 5:15 Alderwood 78%, Benefficient 77%, His Excellency 76%, Tetlami 70% - backed all four Good luck on final day. |
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ive been waiting for your county evaluation joci
Dan Breen 84% think i,ll side with this old dog  |
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Your picks have done well today. Well done.
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Very well done, joci, and modest with it, great stuff and hope you won plenty.
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Thanks. After a blank day Thursday (for some reason, usually a bad day for me), today was much better, with another five winners, making it my most successful Festival ever for winners.
The following obliged for me today: Our Connor @ 5 Ted Veale @ 11.5 At Fishers Cross @ prices between 4.1 & 6.2 Salsify @ 3.85 Alderwood @ 6.8 I didn't actually benefit from the following, but the trends also pointed out: (1) Far West & Our Connor as two top rated (finished 2nd / 1st) (2) At Fishers Cross & African Gold as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd) (3) Salsify & Divine Intavention as two top rated (finished 1st / 2nd with exacta paying over 200) Just missed out on the Placepot, with Gevrey Chambertain (in a non trends race) letting me down. So, that made a total of 14 winners for the week (6,3,0,5), which far surpassed anything I've ever managed before. The trends came up trumps this year! |
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that is an incredible return, well played
must be very satisfying piling hours into it and getting results like that |
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Was pleased it all worked out in the end, but realise it could so easily go the other way (as it did on Thursday). Another thing that was reinforced in my mind is that the trends can / should be used to narrow down the field to a manageable set of horses that are the most likely winners, then instinct and form study (especially keeping an eye on collateral form from horses that run well during the festival) shoould be used in the final selection process.
I missed Bobs Worth this week, despire everything suggesting he would run a very big race, especially his incredible record around the course. However, I deserted him, due to a number of factors like lack of recent run, relative inexperience, and lack of grade one win this season. That came back to bite me, so maybe need to be a bit more flexible in future. One pleasing thing is that trend analysis often comes up with market leaders as selections (for obvious reasons), but it can also put you on to some less obvious, big price runners that have the capacity to perform well, but which the market might have overlooked e.g. Medinas, Golden Chieftain, Divine Intavention and others. Will now have a bash at some of the key Aintree races using the same methodology, and see how it works out. If anyone would like to see copies of the final spreadsheet for each day, drop me a message and I can forward you on copies. |
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great work joci,was fun reading through the thread all week and im glad yer hard work payed off
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Excellent work, Joci, well done!
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Brilliant Joci. A lot of work put into this year. I'm not usually a trends man but you cant knock it. Good luck with Aintree. Also good to see people helping others to beat the 'enemy'.
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