Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2013 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2013 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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Grand Annual
Key Trends 9 out of 10 winners were aged 5 to 9 10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured 8 out of 10 winners were officially rated 134 or lower 9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception 5th in a grade 2) 9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August 9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days 9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 12 chases 9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer h'cap chases (3 making h'cap chase debut) 6 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 4 others had won just 1) 8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (1 exception had finished 6th in previous Grand Annual on only graded chase start & other exception had yet to run in a graded chase but had placed in three grade 1 hurdles) 7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here) 7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won) Based on tha above (weighted) trends, ehere are my rankings for the field: Lancetto41 93% Toubab13 85% Kandari42 85% Tetlami22 84% Alderwood40 84% Mad Moose48 83% Sustainability16 78% Kapga De Cerisy21 77% Vulcanite37 77% Benefficient48 76% Lambro15 76% Far Away So Close40 76% Saphir River62 76% Keki Buku14 76% Kudu Country13 75% Edgardo Sol34 75% Astracad90 75% His Excellency34 74% Ballynagour21 71% Marshal Zhukov34 71% Savello36 71% Silver Roque14 5x 71% Desert Cry40 70% Saved By John13 70% Garynella13 70% Tikawa Moirette105 70% Beeverstown22 70% Absolutlyfantastic35F 70% Ballywatt14 70% Majala34 69% Cantlow67 69% Kid Cassidy119 68% Soll69 68% Call The Police19 67% Realt Dubh19 67% Free World21 67% Shangani32 63% Viva Colonia40 62% Parsnip Pete43 62% Ulck Du Lin83 61% Anquetta40 61% Donnas Palm110 61% Ballyadam Brook19 61% Escort´men21 61% Sew On Target14 61% Gus Macrae20 60% Regal D´Estruval172 60% Tataniano105 58% Petit Robin34 58% Tatenen27 58% Wishfull Thinking34 57% French Opera34 57% Pigeon Island27 57% Drumshambo34 54% Rody62 54% Eastlake41 53% Nobunaga15 53% Green Belt Elite1135 53% Baily Green79 52% Shooters Wood34 52% Renard20 52% Stagecoach Pearl26 51% King Edmund41 50% Oiseau De Nuit20 49% Oh Crick20 49% Tanks For That34 47% Falcon Island41 42% Kumbeshwar48 40% Anay Turge21 35% Nozic21 34% Mister Matt146 26% A clear leader on the trends is Lancetto, and there are a few bunched up behind him, including Alderwood, who I will be having a close look at once running plans are finalised, as he could be one of the Festival plot horses. |
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Key Trends 34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days) 8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed) 8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out 10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August 10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts 9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle) 6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle 8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level) 2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper) 11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132 6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger. Applying these trends to the field (weighted), gives the following ranking: Champagne Fever 100% Melodic Rendezvous 91% My Tent Or Yours 86% Un Atout 86% Puffin Billy 84% Mozoltov 84% Jezki 83% Rule The World 76% Pique Sous 75% Rock Critic 74% River Maigue 65% Dodging Bullets 61% Ifandbutwhynot 56% I Shot The Sheriff 47% Cause Of Causes 37% Cheltenian 36% Flying Cross 26% Fire King 17% Ostentation 17% Selections: Champagne Fever (23/1); My Tent Or Yours (2.96) With doubts over the participation of Champagne Fever, additional insurance taken with a bet of My Tent Or Yours, based on his facile win in the former Tote Gold Trophy. |
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Why ignore the 2nd best on your rankings?
hes the winner  |
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the question is by how far MTOY wins
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buddeliea 07 Mar 13 07:43
Why ignore the 2nd best on your rankings? hes the winner Fair point, to be honest, I like the top four, but you can't back them all, and in the end, I'm swayed by MTOY's facile victory in the Tote Gold Trophy, and the fact that Melodic Rendezvous has to overcome the 'age' stat. |
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I get the impression when I see MR in action that he wants to go further.
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JLT Specialty Chase
Trends: 10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners. 7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured. All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143. 8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won) 8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start 8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers) 10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase 9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases 3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+ 7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1 And based on the above, here's the ranking of the latest field: Duke Of Lucca17 95% Cantlow64 94% 17 Golden Chieftain18 89% Monbeg Dude24 89% Saint Are24 84% 10 No Secrets21 83% 32 Carlito Brigante25F 82% 25 Monkerty Tunkerty20 82% 21 Chartreux54 82% Opening Batsman17 80% Muirhead12 78% 29 Alfie Sherrin75 78% Fruity O´Rooney45 77% 30 Loch Ba55 75% 28 Nuts N Bolts28 75% Knockara Beau34 72% Tour Des Champs24 71% Jadanli21 70% Merry King80 69% Cloudy Too24 69% 11 Mountainous25 67% 18 Summery Justice17 66% Walkon45 64% 16 Battle Group45 64% 9 Ballyoliver12 5x 64% 23 Tullamore Dew45 63% Our Mick45 62% 20 Relax25 59% Sire Collonges115 59% 22 Johns Spirit45 58% Sunnyhillboy59 58% Planet Of Sound88 57% Nadiya De La Vega45 57% Tenor Nivernais16 56% 19 White Star Line17 56% 14 Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54% 15 De Boitron37 53% The Package59 52% 31 Deal Done115 51% 27 Tartak10 51% 26 Poole Master26 51% 24 Gullinbursti45 51% Hey Big Spender10 50% 12 Billie Magern10 49% 29 Alfie Sherrin75 46% 8 Time For Spring46 46% 7 Pentiffic40 46% 5 Lively Baron24 46% Quantitativeeasing17 45% 6 Glenquest47 45% 1 Bescot Springs101 41% 13 Toner D´Oudairies44 39% Quartz De Thaix24 35% Midnight Chase45 32% 3 Riguez Dancer26 28% 4 Prophete De Guye20 21% 2 Plein Pouvoir18 21% Selections: Duke Of Lucca (22) & Cantlow (9.6) Only small interest so far, pending running plans. Will go in again once plans finalised (or not as the case may be). |
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Thats a fair point Duffy,and a soft ground Supreme may well suit a horse with good form over 2m on soft,that stays further than 2.
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National Hunt Chase
The trends: 7 and 8 year olds have won 9 of last 10 but have represented approximately 65.8% of total runners. 7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time) 10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase 9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+ 8 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days 8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases (2 exceptions were 2nd season chasers) 10 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point 5 of 8 British-trained winners (last 4) had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+ 7 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear Based on the above, and for the current slimmed down field of 30 horses, I get the following ranking: Godsmejudge 84% Itoldyou 84% Hunters Lodge 83% Emperor´s Choice 81% Benheir 76% Highland Lodge 76% So Fine 76% Fentara 76% Present To You 74% Tofino Bay 73% Hawkes Point 72% Merry King 71% Back In Focus 71% Twirling Magnet 66% Tour Des Champs 65% Court By Surprise 64% Drawn N Drank 64% Real Milan 64% Vesper Bell 64% Buddy Bolero 62% Rival D´Estruval 62% Sacred Mountain 61% Boston Bob 60% Our Island 56% Rose Of The Moon 54% Sea Of Thunder 54% Top Smart 50% Lyreen Legend 43% Scampi Boy 22% Heathyards Flyer 20% So on ratings we're looking at a shortlist of 4 horses: Godsmejudge 84% Itoldyou 84% Hunters Lodge 83% Emperor´s Choice 81% So far, I've had a wager on Godsmejudge @ 13.5 (and lost a small amount on defector Makethemostofnow), and just had a little on Hunters Lodge at 150/1. I will be having a look at the claims of others over the next few days. |
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Albert Bartlett Hurdle
8 out of 10 winners Irish / French bred 7 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers) 8 of 8 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts 7 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time 7 of 8 winners had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles in GB and Ire 6 of 8 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions placed in a grade 2) 8 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+ 7 of 8 winners (last 7) had not run on the flat (exception had run in non-thoroughbred races in France) 7 of 8 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from first 5 in the betting. Based on the above, my rankings are as follows: At Fishers Cross 86% Champagne Fever 86% Pont Alexandre 82% Shutthefrontdoor 75% African Gold 73% Gevrey Chambertin 68% Lienosus 67% Sizing Gold 67% Inish Island 66% Rule The World 66% Coneygree 61% Ballycasey 60% Cloudy Copper 60% Ardkilly Witness 59% O´Faolains Boy 59% Return Spring 59% Road To Riches 59% Virginia Ash 59% Utopie Des Bordes 59% I Shot The Sheriff 58% Our Vinnie 58% Mozoltov 56% Ballybough Pat 52% Le Bec 52% Un Atout 51% Aaim To Prosper 50% Bucking The Trend 50% Flaming Charmer 50% Loose Preformer 50% Rocknrollrambo 50% Superior Quality 50% Bondage 49% Bonisland 43% Midnight Appeal 24% The bet has to be At Fishers Cross, as the other highest rated horses have alternative engagements. Looks a real stayer, looks tough abd a battler, and has good winning Cheltenham form. Will be confident if there's a nice bit of cut in the ground. Selection: At Fishers Cross |
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Triumph Hurdle
Trends: 9 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1) 10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 45 days 8 of 10 (16/19) winners won last time out 7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs 9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on 1 hurdles run) 10 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher 7 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths 9 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts The 10 winners had collectively run in 32 hurdles race prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 28 of those 32 starts. 9 of 10 winners had run on the flat 6 of 7 (13/15) winners that ran on flat in Britain were officially rated 80 or higher 9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen 7 of the last 9 winners made their hurdling debut after November 15 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting in 7 of last 8 years. Based on the above trends, here are my rankings: Ruacana 76% Far West 76% Our Conor 74% Kashmir Peak 71% Hidden Justice 69% Diakali 68% Rolling Star 63% Swnymor 62% Somemothersdohavem 58% Chris Pea Green 58% Sametegal 52% Stocktons Wing 50% Lac Fontana 46% Masters Blazing 45% Blood Cotil 43% Cape Explorer 39% King Of Dudes 39% Uriah Heep 39% Ibsen 39% Gassin Golf 38% Vasco Du Ronceray 37% Ruacana comes out very marginally ahead of Far West in the ratings, but was exposed behind Our Connor recently, so preference is for Far West, who has done nothing wrong, posted a couple of wide margin wins at Cheltenham, and showed last time out that he possesses plenty of speed and versatility. Our Connor is very much respected, and I may also have a saver on the day (though this is not generally a race for the Irish. Selection: Far West |
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Great work all of this joci lad - but have to pull you up on the melodic rendezvous one. You can't do all those stats to just go back on it and recommend one that is 5% less. Stick to your guns.
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He was overlooked reluctantly, as I've been impressed with his wins. Worried about the age stat, but depending on what happens to Champagne Fever (will he run here), I mught still end up having some on him.
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Fair enough. Keep up the good work!
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Foxhunters
Trends: Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138 8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out 6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days 6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases) 9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases 10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6) 7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently (1 exception was Zemsky who likely would have been beaten by front-running Baby Run had he not unseated 2 out) 6 of 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger and in past 6 years there have been two 33/1 winners and two 20/1 winners. Based on the above trends, here are my ratings: Creevytennant 90% Divine Intavention 89% Salsify 86% Rumbury Grey 84% Earth Dream 82% Galant Nuit 82% Louis Pasteur 82% Radetsky March 82% That´s Rhythm 80% Kirkleigh 79% Dante´s Storm 79% Oscar Delta 78% Tricky Trickster 77% Cottage Oak 76% Current Exchange 76% Benedictus 74% Boxing Along 74% Offshore Account 73% Hoopy 72% Keenan´s Future 66% Cloudy Lane 64% Doctor Kingsley 64% Faasel 64% Vic Venturi 64% Backstage 62% Coombe Hill 62% Whizzaar 62% Rathcor 58% What A Laugh 58% Merchant Royal 56% Metal Detector 56% Chapoturgeon 54% Rainbow Tree 47% Up There 18% This is an interesting one. Salsify provided me with a nice winner when taking this last year and I fancy him again to run a very nice race. However, the trends threw up a top rated horse who won impressively last time out, in Creevytennant, and who was a huge price when I got on. The one drawback, is that it's been stated he has a definite preference for going right handed. At the price, I was tempted to make a small investment though, and will also probably back Salsify on the day to repeat last year's win. Divine Intavention will come under consideration on the day, if Creevytennant fails to make the field. Selection: Creevytennant @ 100/1; Salsify SP |
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Joci I considered Salisfy a good thing on good ground or better but unlikely to see that now. He is very ground dependent.
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Yes, will make decision on the day. Have til Friday, so ground could be quite different from the first two days. He does have form on soft/heavy ground, which is what it's normally like in Ireland.
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Just a question Joci re the 4 mile chase. Could you explain the relative low rating of Back In Focus. Given his ground I would have considered him one of the class acts in this race.
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Really cant see Far West winning the Triumph, he is one of the horses of the whole Festival that I am keenest to oppose. Good thread though.
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Sure, Back in Focus does not 'hit' 3 of the trends, namely:
1 Last time out run is outside of the desirable range 2 The typical winner would have had between 4 & 8 runs since August (BIF has had 3, with the 4th on 22nd July, so he only just fails this test, and I can see how you could 'relax' this if you wanted) 3 Not won or placed over 2m 4f at Newbury in the past (again, seeing as he's Irish trained, you might want to disregard this) Of the three, I'd say the duration to last run is the most compelling. Wouldn't put you off him if you really fancy him though, as his class might bring him through. |
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marychain1 09 Mar 13 22:58
Really cant see Far West winning the Triumph, he is one of the horses of the whole Festival that I am keenest to oppose. Good thread though. Anything in particular putting you off him? |
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Just think he's priced up as much on his stable as his achievements, but Nicholls' previous winners of this have been different types entirely; ex-flat raiders (Zarkander & Celestial Halo). I'm sure Far West will go onto be a super animal but I'm not sure its a Triumph winner.
I don't have anything in particular to put up against it (if forced to pick I'd probably go for Rolling Star) but happy to take the field against it at 4/1. |
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Mares Hurdle
Short and sweet - Quevega. Selection: Quevega |
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Day 1 Summary
Supreme - Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96 Arkle - Simonsig @ SP JT Specialty - Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8 Cross Country - Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2 Mares Hurdle - Quevega @ SP Pulteney - The Druids Nephew @ 13 |
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World Hurdle
Trends: 8 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8 (2 exceptions were Inglis Drever’s third win and Big Buck’s’ fourth win) 8 of 10 winners were French Bred 10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 163+ last time (exception posted RPR of 158) 10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles 10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season 8 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (2 others having first course start) 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that) 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1) 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start) 7 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (3 exceptions had won the previous year's race) 7 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival 10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting Rankings based on the above: Reve De Sivola 100% Oscar Whisky 73% Peddlers Cross 63% Zaidpour 60% Bog Warrior 49% Solwhit 49% So Young 45% Quevega 43% Wonderful Charm 41% Fiveforthree 38% Back In Focus 33% American Spin 32% Smad Place 31% Celestial Halo 29% Get Me Out Of Here 24% Cloudy Spirit 24% Oscara Dara 23% Cross Kennon 22% Reve De Sivola, a real stayer, ticks all the boxes, and has already taken the scalp of Oscar Whisky at the course, and therefore has to be the main selction. However, I rate the latter very highly, and at the prices, it's definitely possible to have a cover bet or ech way bet on OW, which is probably what I will do on the day. Selection: Reve De Sivola |
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He does tick a lot of boxes Joci, given a positive ride he will be very hard to keep of the first 3.
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Jewson Novices Chase
No firm trends to go on, given the young age of this race. However, I'm hoping Dynaste will chose this option ahead of the RSA Chase, and if he does so, then he will be the bet. Selection: Dynaste @ SP (assuming defects from RSA Chase) |
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Have backed MTOY (10's) and Champagne Fever (16's), the latter came out on top from my trends analysis also.
Have also backed The Druids Nephew in the last, have Quevega running in some multis. |
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Ryanair Chase
The trends: 6 of 8 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George) 6 of 8 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start 7 of 8 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip) 6 of 8 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham 8 of 8 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season 5 of 8 winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or **** Gold Cups 8 of 8 winners had won a graded race 8 of 8 winners were officially rated 152+ 7 of 8 winners (last 7) had won over 2M 5F or further Since race became a grade 1, 4 of 5 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup 7 of 8 winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting. Based on the above, here are my rankings: Riverside Theatre 80% First Lieutenant 75% Menorah 74% Ghizao 74% Champion Court 71% Cue Card 71% Sizing Europe 65% Finian´s Rainbow 59% Albertas Run 57% For Non Stop 52% Walkon 46% A tricky race top weigh up, if only for uncertain running plans. Riverside Theatre comes out top of the rankings, and as last year's winner, merits great respect. However, it's the one below him in the rankings that I am most interested in. First Lieutenant has been running really well in all the big races, including the Hennessy. My observation is that he travels really well, and just gets outstayed at the business end of 3m+ races. It happened at the Festival last year too. He has good Cheltenham form, handles the track, and I think this trip will be ideal for him. The big question is whether he will run in this, or in the Gold Cup. Cue Card is a worry, but I have a suspicion he will be let down by his jumping. Selection: First Lieutenant @ SP |
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Fred Winter
Preliminary analysis as so many declared runners, but here we go..... Trends: 6 of 8 winners have been officially rated 124 to 130 8 of 8 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in a group 1 on flat 5 of 8 winners won last time out (3 exceptions unplaced in grade 2) 6 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 118+ in last 2 hurdles runs 7 of 8 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire 8 of 8 winners had run since start of February (7 out of 8 in last 28 days) 8 of 8 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (6 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start) 5 of 8 winners had run on the flat (3 exceptions began career in a bumper or hurdle in France) 3 of 3 winners to have raced on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ & had contested a group/listed race 2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles Based on the above, here are my current rankings: Zamdy Man25 92% Habesh26F 83% Three Kingdoms20 83% Fatcatinthehat46 80% Pistol26 80% Bordoni36 80% 24 Ibsen25 75% 22 Sash Of Honour26 75% 21 King Of Dudes21 73% Milord32 72% 9 Calculated Risk4 72% Totalize27 70% Mcvicar28F 70% Stocktons Wing18 69% Saphir Du Rheu65 69% Counsel61 67% Blood Cotil32 61% Ruacana32 61% Hilali14F 61% Flaxen Flare32 58% 27 Knight Of Pleasure25 56% 20 Sky Khan34 55% 18 One Fine Day18 55% 14 Pacelli Road17 55% 13 Hallmark Star5 55% 11 Whipcrackaway4 55% 10 Dollar Bill4 55% 7 Faanan Aldaar7 55% 5 Lone Foot Laddie38 55% 3 King Arthur21 55% 2 Dont Take Me Alive24 55% 1 Arte Del Calcio4 55% Caid Du Berlais32 53% 26 Angelot Du Berlais34 53% 25 Dovils Date74 53% Another Sensation96 52% 15 Deepsand29 52% Viconte Du Noyer322 50% Kalmann122 50% South South West18 48% Ptit Zig35 48% 19 Docs Legacy38 44% 16 Foster´s Road18 44% 12 Hartside48 44% 6 Mr Lando4 44% 23 Tidal Way38 42% Sametegal22 41% 8 Juno The Muffinman45 33% 17 Captain Cardington4 31% 4 Asteroid Belt125 31% Megalypos67 30% Shortlist: Zamdy Man 92% Habesh 83% Three Kingdoms 83% Fatcatinthehat 80% Pistol 80% Bordoni 80% Zamdy Man heads the list, and is currently at a tasty price of 23/1. Not sure if he's a definite runner, but if declared he will be a bet. I have already backed Bordoni as I think he could be well handicapped and expect him to run a big race. Moree work / analysis to be done on the Tuesday night in the pub! Selections: Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man (if declared) |
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Champion Bumper
The trends: 9 of 10 winners were sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 on the flat 9 of 10 winners won a bumper with 13+ runners 10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season 9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice since August and not finished outside first 2 in any of those starts 9 of 10 winners (last 9) won last time (exception was 2nd in Open bumper at November meeting) 8 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track 7 of 10 winners had won a bumper at Naas, Fairyhouse or Punchestown 7 of 10 winners made their rules debut at either Leopardstown or Punchestown 2 of 3 British-trained winners made their debut in Ireland 9 of 10 winners had either been beaten or had to battle to gain one of their wins (1 exception was Cue Card who had run just once, winning a class 6 Fontwell bumper easily) Rankings based on the above: 9 Purple Bay 80% 11 Gallant Tipp 71% Sgt Reckless 70% Union Dues 70% Le Vent D´Antan 70% 6 Shield 68% 2 Yes Sir Brian 67% Briar Hill 61% Doctor Harper 61% Golantilla 61% The Liquidator 61% 8 Centasia 61% Blackmail 60% Regal Encore 60% 3 Unowhatimeanharry 60% Johnny Og 60% Sizing Tennessee 59% Our Pollyanna 59% Drumlee 51% Empiracle 51% 10 Kayf Moss 51% Milo Man 51% Posiden Sea 51% Vieux Lion Rouge 51% Caledonia 50% Hellorboston 50% Pure Science 50% 4 Be Bop Boru 41% Fascino Rustico 41% 7 Mister Nibbles 41% Monkey Kingdom 41% 5 The Clock Leary 41% I´m Fraam Govan 40% Vinstar 40% 1 Lady Lectra 21% Purple Bay stands alone at the top of the rankings, and I had a small bet at a big price, but am uncertain whether he's an intended runner or make the cut. I will be having another bet on the day, but am undecided at the moment. Selection: Purple Bay @ 44 (not a certain runner at this stage) |
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I just had another run through the Foxhunters, after updating the trends, and dropping the trend on starting price, as I don't think it's that significant, and came up with the following revised ranking:
Salsify 93% Divine Intavention 90% Creevytennant 89% Louis Pasteur 81% Galant Nuit 81% Dante´s Storm 80% Kirkleigh 79% That´s Rhythm 79% Benedictus 75% Boxing Along 75% Current Exchange 74% Cottage Oak 72% Earth Dream 72% Hoopy 72% Radetsky March 72% Rumbury Grey 72% Offshore Account 70% Tricky Trickster 70% Doctor Kingsley 65% Oscar Delta 64% Coombe Hill 60% Backstage 60% Cloudy Lane 60% Faasel 60% Vic Venturi 60% Chapoturgeon 58% Rathcor 57% What A Laugh 56% Merchant Royal 53% Keenan´s Future 53% Metal Detector 52% Whizzaar 48% Rainbow Tree 43% Up There 12% Salsify has taken over at the top. He would have been a bet anyway, and I'm still happy with 100/1 about Creevytennant. Will take a look at Divine Intavention on the day. Selections: Creevytennant @ 100; Salsify @ SP |
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Grand Annual
Public Health Warning - this is my least successful race of the festival from a betting perspective, so you're advised to ignore the following! The trends: Age 5-9 (9 out of 10) 10 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less and so are heavily favoured. 8 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 139. 9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (exception unplaced in grade 2) 9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August 9 of 10 winners had run in past 45 days 9 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 12 chases 8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (4 were making their h'cap chase debut) 7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase (2 of the 3 others had won just 1) 7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade chase 7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 other was placed on both starts here) 8 of 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (none had won) Only 1 of 10 winners raced prominently And based on the above trends (I haven't looked at the prominent racers yet), here are my rankings: Lancetto41 85% Tetlami22 78% Alderwood40 78% Kapga De Cerisy21 72% Saphir River62 71% His Excellency34 68% Mad Moose48 68% Savello12 5x 65% Sustainability16 65% Desert Cry40 64% Anquetta40 64% Keki Buku14 64% Shangani32 64% Saved By John13 64% Marshal Zhukov34 63% Majala34 62% Benefficient48 61% Tatenen27 60% Viva Colonia40 57% Absolutlyfantastic35F 57% Ballywatt14 57% Renard20 56% Parsnip Pete43 56% Gus Macrae20 56% Ballyadam Brook19 56% King Edmund41 54% Regal D´Estruval172 54% Petit Robin34 53% Kid Cassidy119 53% Oh Crick20 52% Pigeon Island27 52% French Opera34 51% Drumshambo34 49% Eastlake41 49% Escort´men21 49% Sew On Target14 49% Rody62 49% Green Belt Elite1135 48% Ulck Du Lin83 47% Shooters Wood34 47% Tanks For That34 44% Nobunaga15 41% Falcon Island41 40% Baily Green79 38% Stagecoach Pearl26 38% Kumbeshwar48 37% Oiseau De Nuit20 36% Nozic21 23% Mister Matt146 17% So far, I've just had the one bet on the top rated Lancetto, but not sure if he's a guaranteed runner, so will need to look more closely during the week. The other one I'd be interested in is Alderwood, who could be one of the Fetival plot horses. Selection: Lancetto @ 46 ; probable bet on Alderwood @ SP |
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Pertemps Hurdle
The trends: 9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 and they accounted for 31 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 77% of the total runners. Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 9 and filled 29 of the last 36 places. Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 64.7% of the total runners & they have filled all 19 of 20 places in the past 5 years. 3 of 10 winners won last time out (6 of 7 others hadn’t won a race that season) 10 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 61 days ago 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 3 to 7 times that season 10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races 6 of 10 winner ran in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions previously finished in first 6 in this) 10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles 9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+) 6 of 10 winners were NH bred 4 of 10 winners were rated 71 to 85 on the flat Only 1 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before (2 having first course start). Buena Vista, who had finished won or placed in this race in previous 2 seasons was only horse with course winning form. Previous Festival form is not essential. 6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently No massively significant trend with regard to prices though last 6 winners went between 14/1 & 20/1. Beware of backing any horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 9 years only 3 of the 33 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places. I have not looked at the prominent racing angle yet (too many runners / too little time), but absent that, here are my rankings: 34 Top Of The Range6 5x 83% 39 Ely Brown61 80% 24 Battle Group47 80% 11 Sixty Something26 72% 9 Amigo26 72% According To Trev39 71% American Spin33 71% 32 Hada Men26 71% 30 Alpha Victor38 71% 18 Coole Avenue39 71% 31 Seymour Eric26 70% 19 Monetary Fund12 70% 38 Son Of Flicka61 69% 37 Captain Sunshine33 69% 16 Mister Dillon22 69% Shutthefrontdoor36 66% 25 Art Professor35 66% 10 Storm Survivor15 65% Medinas40 64% Holywell61 64% Jetson75 64% 26 Connectivity712 64% 23 Paint The Clouds517 64% First Fandango58 63% Double Ross40 63% Pateese32 63% Bakbenscher35 62% Royal Reveille39 62% 12 Buachaill Alainn90 62% Action Master77 61% 17 Kayf Aramis12 61% 7 Dolatulo33 61% Hollow Tree40 60% 36 American Trilogy78 59% 20 The Tracey Shuffle21 59% Sam Winner48 57% 14 Knight Pass22 55% 2 Medicinal Compound39 55% 28 Nagpur26 54% 1 Nampour78 54% Bouggler26 53% 22 Return Spring23 53% 13 Counting House90 53% 3 Frontier Dancer98 53% Berties Dream19 52% 33 Ardkilly Witness26 52% 29 Palace Jester7 52% 27 Hold On Julio26 52% 15 Blissful Moment19 50% 4 Kaylif Aramis19 50% Ballybough Pat75 49% Any Given Day28 47% Dursey Sound61 46% Close House78 46% Junior33 45% Stonemaster75 45% 35 Big Easy96 45% 8 Katkeau19 45% 21 Cockney Trucker6 44% 6 Acapulco18 42% Catch Me39 36% Fair Along104 29% 5 Blue Cannon6F 18% The top 3 would make a nice shortlist, but no firm conclusions at this stage, so a shortlist only. Top Of The Range 83% (17s) Ely Brown 80% (20s) Battle Group 80% (46s) |
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Summary of bets (so far):
Tuesday 1:30 Champagne Fever @ 23; My Tent Or Yours @ 2.9-2.96 2:05 Simonsig @ SP 2:40 Duke Of Lucca @ 23; Cantlow @ SP 3:20 Hurricane Fly @ SP; Rock On Ruby @ 5.8 4:00 Arabella Boy @ 7-7.2 4:40 Quevega @ SP 5:15 The Druids Nephew @ 13.5 Wednesday 1:30 Godsmejudge @ 11.5-13.5; Hunters Lodge @ 150  2:05 Pont Alexandre @ 3.25 2:40 Super Duty @ 30; Boston Bob @ 5.3 3:20 Sprinter Sacre @ SP 4:00 Pendra @ 11 4:40 Bordoni @ 14; Zamdy Man @ 23 5:15 Purple Bay @ 44 Thursday 1:30 Dynaste @ SP 2:05 Top Of The Range @ 17.5 2:40 First Lieutenant @ SP 3:20 Reve De Sivola @ 5.2; Oscar Whisky @ SP 4:00 Undecided 4:40 Undecided Friday 1:30 Far West @ SP 2:05 Undecided 2:40 At Fishers Cross @ 5.2 3:20 Sir Des Champs @ 5.1 4:00 Salsify @ 3.85; Creevytennant @ 100 4:40 Undecided 5:15 Lancetto @ 46; Alderwood @ SP Good luck everyone! |
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Great start Chris!
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2 out of 2 - please keep it up for another 3 days so my life changing acca comes in
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well done jocci !
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Think Golden Chieftan your top rated runner in the JLT.
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The Fly goes in as well - hope you have an acca on.
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