Cheltenham Festival
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This will be a trends based evaluation of each race in the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. I have been spending too much time updating my spreadsheet with all the trends for each race, and evaluating each horse against those trends, while putting my own slant on the relative importance of those trends. Hopefully, the time and effort will pay off with a few decent winners.
Just like to mention at the outset that I'm indebted to Racecaller, who is the main source of the trends I use in this analysis.
I will kick off with the highlight of day one, the Champion Hurdle. All the various trends have been weighted according to their perceived 'importance', to give the most likely winner.
Key Trends
Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
Run 2 to 5 times this season
2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or
3rd or 4th season hurdler
Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival
Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, International and/or Christmas Hurdle
Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time
Applying the key trends to the race gives a ranking as follows:
Hurricane Fly 81%
Rock On Ruby 80%
Countrywide Flame 72%
Overturn 68%
Binocular 62%
Thousand Stars 62%
Cinders And Ashes 58%
Oscar Whisky 55%
Peddlers Cross 52%
Zaidpour 52%
Zarkandar 52%
Grandouet 40%
Raya Star 39%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 36%
Cotton Mill 30%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 27%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 23%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
There are likely to be a few non-runners out of the above list e.g. Grumeti, Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle) & Overturn (Arkle), but there will still be a high class field going into battle.
Hurricane Fly narrowly heads the list on trends and he is a very consistent horse who invariably seems to run to a RPR of around 170. Crucially, this is higher than many in the field have ever achieved, and therefore either he has to underperform (as he arguably did last year) or others have to find improvement (and some a significant amount of improvement).
Close 2nd on trends is the defending champion Rock On Ruby, who has perhaps not been given the credit he deserves for last year's win. Warmed up for this with victory at Doncster beating Countrywide Flame, having finished a decent 3rd behind a race fit Zarkandar and Grandouet in the International Hurdle. Could be one that reserves his best for the BIG day. Doesn't possess a great turn of foot, but will wind it up, and could prove hard to pass if given a lead.
Binocular is one that has the potential to run to a very high rating, but I'm worried about his consistency recently. Readily brushed aside by Hurricane Fly last time out, albeit under a tender ride from McCoy, he's subject of postive reports from Seven Barrows, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see him thereabouts at the business end.
Form figures of 111 this season for Zarkandar has to be respected but the fact remains is that he never really threatens to run to the kind of mark achieved by the likes of Hurricane Fly. However, he is a battler, stays well, has good course form, and will be staying on probably after being outpaced between the final two obstacles.
Grandouet is a horse I like very much, and I would have been very keen on him had he come out after the International Hurdle and put in an impressive performance. A supremely good traveller in his races, I'm sure he has the ability to go very close with the right preparation. However, the lack of race fitness / recent run is a concern, and makes me think he might just be found wanting in the finish.
There aren't many others that interest me. Cinders and Ashes doesn't seem to have progressed. Countrywide Flame looks exposed enough. The admirably consistent Oscar Whisky seems to fall between two stools, one being two miles and the other 3 miles, and will probably be re-routed.
Nothing else should be capable of troubling the judge.
On balance (and despite being burned last year), I fancy Hurricane Fly to reclaim his crown, and reaffirm his status as Champion Hurdler.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
Just like to mention at the outset that I'm indebted to Racecaller, who is the main source of the trends I use in this analysis.
I will kick off with the highlight of day one, the Champion Hurdle. All the various trends have been weighted according to their perceived 'importance', to give the most likely winner.
Key Trends
Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
Run 2 to 5 times this season
2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or
3rd or 4th season hurdler
Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival
Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, International and/or Christmas Hurdle
Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time
Applying the key trends to the race gives a ranking as follows:
Hurricane Fly 81%
Rock On Ruby 80%
Countrywide Flame 72%
Overturn 68%
Binocular 62%
Thousand Stars 62%
Cinders And Ashes 58%
Oscar Whisky 55%
Peddlers Cross 52%
Zaidpour 52%
Zarkandar 52%
Grandouet 40%
Raya Star 39%
Rebel Fitz 36%
Balder Succes 36%
Cotton Mill 30%
Cause Of Causes 29%
Khyber Kim 27%
Grumeti 26%
Steps To Freedom 23%
Ransom Note 22%
Flying Cross 7%
There are likely to be a few non-runners out of the above list e.g. Grumeti, Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle) & Overturn (Arkle), but there will still be a high class field going into battle.
Hurricane Fly narrowly heads the list on trends and he is a very consistent horse who invariably seems to run to a RPR of around 170. Crucially, this is higher than many in the field have ever achieved, and therefore either he has to underperform (as he arguably did last year) or others have to find improvement (and some a significant amount of improvement).
Close 2nd on trends is the defending champion Rock On Ruby, who has perhaps not been given the credit he deserves for last year's win. Warmed up for this with victory at Doncster beating Countrywide Flame, having finished a decent 3rd behind a race fit Zarkandar and Grandouet in the International Hurdle. Could be one that reserves his best for the BIG day. Doesn't possess a great turn of foot, but will wind it up, and could prove hard to pass if given a lead.
Binocular is one that has the potential to run to a very high rating, but I'm worried about his consistency recently. Readily brushed aside by Hurricane Fly last time out, albeit under a tender ride from McCoy, he's subject of postive reports from Seven Barrows, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see him thereabouts at the business end.
Form figures of 111 this season for Zarkandar has to be respected but the fact remains is that he never really threatens to run to the kind of mark achieved by the likes of Hurricane Fly. However, he is a battler, stays well, has good course form, and will be staying on probably after being outpaced between the final two obstacles.
Grandouet is a horse I like very much, and I would have been very keen on him had he come out after the International Hurdle and put in an impressive performance. A supremely good traveller in his races, I'm sure he has the ability to go very close with the right preparation. However, the lack of race fitness / recent run is a concern, and makes me think he might just be found wanting in the finish.
There aren't many others that interest me. Cinders and Ashes doesn't seem to have progressed. Countrywide Flame looks exposed enough. The admirably consistent Oscar Whisky seems to fall between two stools, one being two miles and the other 3 miles, and will probably be re-routed.
Nothing else should be capable of troubling the judge.
On balance (and despite being burned last year), I fancy Hurricane Fly to reclaim his crown, and reaffirm his status as Champion Hurdler.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
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Replies: 102
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I don't intend this to be a snipe in any way but surely your trends analysis makes Rock On Ruby the bet, seeing as there is only 1% between him and the Fly and he is almost three times the price?
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Thanks Joci. Look forward to to your take on other races.
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tomdeane 25 Feb 13 19:19
I don't intend this to be a snipe in any way but surely your trends analysis makes Rock On Ruby the bet, seeing as there is only 1% between him and the Fly and he is almost three times the price? tomdeane - I take your point, and in reality my trends analysis is being used to whittle down the field to a small number of candidates who (according to the trends) are most likely winners. At Cheltenham, I won't be blindly backing the top rated every time, but for simplicity sake, the top rated will be the selection for this thread. Hopefully, others may find the ranking helpful in formulating a shortlist on which to concentrate their form study / analysis. If I have other bets, I will try and make note of them on each race thread. But in this case, I really believe that if HF runs to his best form, then that will be good enough to take care of them. |
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Cheers JOCI... Hope these churn out some nice winners for you
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Hi JOCI mate, it will be interesting to compare our analysis and selections, as per last year, as I am using much the same data as you but am interpreting it in a different way. I have completed the Supreme, Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup so far and am working on the RSA. I will post a similar thread once I have got a bit more done.
All the best with yours  |
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Cheers, good to get a few different opinions to mull over.
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Deplasterer 25 Feb 13 12:52
Paul Jones's book on stats & trends for all the races for the past 10years or so is a must have for everyone & reasonably priced too. One stat & trend that sticks out at present is that Bobsworth has all the stats to overcome in order to win the gold cup. step forward Sir Des Champs |
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Comes in Ebook form as well
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I'm using the same book plus other stuff and I'm pretty sure I will draw different conclusions to JOCI.
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Hurricane Fly to me is the biggest lay - only 1 horse has ever regained the crown and it is too old at 9 which is another strong stat - I strongly fancy Rock On Ruby but HC as a lay bet is a must - good luck
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Post it on the lay thread
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i like the % analysis with every horse used by OP because there are things id like to factor in and out for my own benefit. for instance in this case a prep run so grandouet and C&A would score lower for example
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I had another look at the Champion Hurdle, and when reviewing my previous assessment discovered I had failed to give credit to those horses that had run in the International Hurdle, namely Rock On Ruby, Zarkandar and Grandouet. When factoring this into the analysis, it just gives Rock On Ruby the edge over Hurricane Fly. The pair are a dcent margin ahead of the rest of the field.
Rock On Ruby 80% Hurricane Fly 79% Countrywide Flame 70% Overturn 66% Binocular 60% Thousand Stars 60% Cinders And Ashes 57% Oscar Whisky 54% Zarkandar 53% Peddlers Cross 51% Zaidpour 51% Grandouet 42% Raya Star 38% Rebel Fitz 36% Balder Succes 35% Cotton Mill 29% Cause Of Causes 29% Khyber Kim 26% Grumeti 26% Steps To Freedom 22% Ransom Note 22% Flying Cross 7% Hurricane Fly still the selection, but acknowledge it could be a tough ask in that he doesn't have the ideal age profile. I'm going on the fact that I still believe he's the best horse in the race, consistently runs the high ratings, definitely had an off day last season (and arguably didn't get the best of rides that day), and could well be able to bounce back and reclaim his crown. |
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Ok... now I'm going to have a (good-natured) snipe...
You've recalculated the figures after realising you missed something from the original. Rock On Ruby is now the highest-rated on your scale, is three times the price of Hurricane Fly, but you've sided with the latter because you think he can outrun last year's performance. Now many will know I am not a trends man really but to me, it is even more silly to go to all this work, come up with a very logical-sounding way of ranking horses, and then produce the figures, only to go with your gut instinct at the end of it all. I totally understand that the point of these analyses is to narrow down the list of potential winners, and as you say, Rock On Ruby and Hurricane Fly are a good way clear on your scale so one of these has to be the bet. I just cannot understand your logic in choosing the jolly here! |
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Understand, and I'd try to explain earlier that I'm not blindly following the trends in reality. If people wish to follow the top rated selections here, then good luck to them, and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off. However, the top rated horse won't win every race at Cheltenham, and sometimes I've been better served by trusting my eye. A classic example is when I selected Sky's The Limit to win the Coral Cup several years ago. Top weights just never won the Coral Cup, but based on what I'd seen at the after racing Leopardstown gallops, I was convinced he had an excellent chance. Won like a good 'un. Key trend blasted out of sight.
Another reason, not been overly impressed with ROR this season. Beaten in International, and would likely have been beaten by the ill fated Darlan last time out. Sometimes you just don't warm to certain horses, and can't find your way to back them, despite what the trends / stats say. |
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and can't find your way to back them, despite what the trends / stats say.
hit the nail on the head joci |
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JOCI mate, horses beaten in the International have a very good record in the Champion. Better than winners of the International in fact and I've backed him (Zarkandar)
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Yep, I just hadn't included the stat re the International in my spreadsheet, and when added it in, increased RORs position relative to HF.
Zarkandar misses out on a number of trends for me. |
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Fair enough and good luck to you.
Just think Rock On Ruby has to be the bet based on a value call on your analysis. I do agree with you in the sense that I haven't warmed to him this season, but the trends do mark him out as a big player and the price differential must be worth taking the risk I'd have thought... Also, not sure what stage you're at with your analyses, but I'm guessing there won't be many cases where you have two horses so far ahead of the rest (relatively speaking), so again, just seems like you're putting in so much hard work to ultimately go with your gut from a shortlist of a few anyway. Best of luck for a profitable week! |
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I haven't had a bet in the race yet, and might even have wager on both closer to the time, if I get a pang of guilt about not backing a top rated one.
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I just know I'd hate to do all this work and then miss a top-rated 6-1 winner having backed the 13-8 fav!
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It is late, but I sense convergance! Hands up if you don't expect to win a penny this week, likewise if your biggest winner will happily be a distant third...
I 'll get me |
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if I don't win a wheelbarrow full I won't be pleased
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If I can cover the cost of my tickets (not cheap up in the grandstand seats), accommodation (very reasonable in Bishops Cleeve) and food / booze (a decent amount), then it's mission accomplished for me.
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Joci
Good luck with your workings , I like the fact that although you are incorporating trends into your thinking, you aren't letting them rule you and are ultimately letting your visual impression of what you've seen through the season have a say in your conclusion, I accept that it must be a hard thing to marry the two up, I look forward to your GC offering, especially if you fancy BW because that's going to be a hard one to work the trends around, for the record I think he's the real deal, trends or no trends, he hasn't raced for a long time, but the trends in this respect are one dimensional, black and white, there's no consideration that in this case, the negative trend is actually , for him, a positive trend as he's so good fresh, that's my theory anyway on why they can be on occasions less than helpful. |
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Key Trends 34 of 38 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days (12/13 run last 52 days) 8 of 10 winners (14/16) won last time out (2 exceptions placed) 8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out 10 of 10 (11/12) winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August 10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts 9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle) 6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle 8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level) 2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper) 11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132 6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger. Applying these trends to the field (weigted), gives the following ranking: Champagne Fever 100% Annie Power 94% Melodic Rendezvous 91% My Tent Or Yours 86% Un Atout 86% Puffin Billy 84% The New One 84% Mozoltov 84% Jezki 83% Don Cossack 80% Rule The World 76% Chatterbox 75% Pique Sous 75% Rock Critic 74% Waaheb 72% Whispering Gallery 66% River Maigue 65% Bright New Dawn 62% Minsk 62% Dodging Bullets 61% Minella Definitely 57% Swnymor 56% Ally Cascade 56% Moscow Mannon 56% Ifandbutwhynot 56% Fatcatinthehat 55% Court Minstrel 53% I Shot The Sheriff 47% Lordofthehouse 47% Fair Trade 46% New Year´s Eve 46% Royal Guardsman 46% Zuider Zee 45% Tsar Des Bieffes 37% Cause Of Causes 37% King Of Dudes 37% Sail By The Sea 37% Tanerko Emery 36% Cheltenian 36% Black Spirit 35% Morning Royalty 35% Ransom Note 35% Valdez 35% Warden Hill 35% Flaxen Flare 28% Royal St Trop 28% Flying Cross 26% Stand To Reason 26% Fire King 17% Looking On 17% Ostentation 17% Sizing Solution 17% Shortlist Champagne Fever 100% Annie Power 94% Melodic Rendezvous 91% My Tent Or Yours 86% Un Atout 86% Of the top 5 above, Champagne Fever ticks all the boxes. Whilst having been beaten a couple of times this season, he showed improved form last time out to win, has proven that he travels and has won at the festival before, and there are no doubts that he has the staying power to be finishing strongly. Might even improve for better going. I like his chances and have backed him at 23s. Slight doubt about whether he will actually run over one of the longer trips though. So he may not be my only bet. My Tent Or Yours has strong claims after winning the old Tote Gold Trophy rather comfortably. I like that race as a pointer to the Festival, as it's often a large field, strongly run event, and the form often stands up well (not unlike some of the big Irish handicaps such as the Pearse Hurdle / MCR Hurdle or whatever it might be called nowadays. Annie Power has done nothing wrong, and can almost be guaranteed to run a big race and would be getting a healthy weight allowance from the others, and would definitely be respected. Like MTOY, just unproven at the highest level (grade 1) but open to improvement. As I type 150s on here, so most likely a non-runner. Melodic Rendezvous has run some good races, keeps pulling it out, and has finished strongly up the stiff Sandown hill which augurs well for Cheltenham. The only negative I have is age (7). Un Atout falls into the 'could be anything' bracket. Two good wins in Ireland, highly regarded, and plenty of potential. Only marked deown slightly by lack of grade 1 form. Could well be my second bet in the race, cloiser to the time. Selection: Champagne Fever @ 23 |
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good write up joci...
just a quick question could you interpret your trend slightly differently in regards dodging bullets for example he was beaten by grumeti first time last year then 4th in the triumph (lane 8)and his other run he stumbled and nearly fell... if we discount that baring mind he was just a mere 4 year old then... and just took this year literally what rating would you give many thanks just interested to know |
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this season even thanks
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If only rating Dodging Bullets on his 3 races this season (ignorong last season's form) would increase his score from 61% to 81%. He would still fall foul of not having had a recent enough prep race, and also the fact that he failed to win last time out.
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ok thanks joci appreciate it... like to look at things from a slightly different perspective...he may fall short but he was running in open company last time however and is trained by the top trainer and ridden by the top jockey...
arcalis ran in the christmas hurdle and placed but did prep i suppose but wasn't trained by nicholls... anyway really good read and have had a little on champagne myself as over priced for this he should set it up nicely for the free going bullet who needs pace to run at and can swoop late and fast in the last 100 yards to coup the money |
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Arkle
Key Trends 20 of 22 winners aged less than 8 8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last completed start 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle 9 of 10 winners (12/13) were officially rated 140+ over hurdles 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune. Other was having first course start) 9 of 10 winners had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival 10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races (7 contested a novice hurdle the previous season) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting Based on the above trends (weighted), here is the ranking of the latest field: Captain Conan 87% Simonsig 85% Benefficient 74% Overturn 73% Arvika Ligeonniere 68% Twinlight 67% Oscars Well 62% Tap Night 61% Terminal 60% Module 52% Majala 52% Aupcharlie 46% Rupert Lamb 46% Marito 45% Argocat 44% His Excellency 43% Fago 31% Baily Green 30% Viva Colonia 30% Beeverstown 23% Toostrong 14% Captain Conan hits most of the trends, but there is a very good chance he will be missing this race, to perhaps run in the Jewson. By default, this leaves Simonsig as the highest rated of the likely runners, and he is the confident selection. Will be a very interesting race, with Overturn probably setting off in front with his customary trailblazing tactics, and Simonsig on a stalking mission. The big question is whether he will have enough gas, and fight to take it up from Overturn at the business end. My money says yes. The reason for Simonsig falling behind Captain Conan in the trends was his relative inexperience over fences. More than 2 outings is ideal. Looking forward to him putting in a great performance, and rivalling Sprinter Sacre for top honours next season. Selection: Simonsig |
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Good stuff Joci
Rock oN Ruby  |
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Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country)
The race that tends to ploarize opinion. Some love it, and thinks it brings somethig new to the Festival. Others dislike it and think it has no place at the mecca of jumps racing. Wherever your views lie, here's what the trends throw out in terms of a ranking: In past 6 years 5 of the 6 winners were aged 8 to 10 and 8 of the last 11 horses aged 11+ to make the frame had won or placed in the race before. 5 of 8 winners won on their last run over fences 6 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days (2 exceptions had last run in cross country race at Cheltenham December meeting) 7 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season 8 of 8 winners had run at least 11 times over fences 7 of 8 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases 7 of 8 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD) 5 of 8 winners had won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other 2 failed to complete on only run on the Cross Country course) 5 of 8 winners had run over hurdles that season (2 of 3 exceptions had won a point to point) Higher rated horses have fared best recently, with the 10 of 11 places being filled by horses rated 135+ in past 3 renewals (including all 3 winners). 6 6 of 8 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase in December, finishing 13F17RO Irish trainers (7-15-60) have won 7 of 8 runnings & filled 77% of the places from approximately 47.2% of the total runners, which compares very well to British trainers (1-6-66). 7 of 8 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting And my ranking based on those trends: Arabella Boy 81% Chicago Grey 75% Sizing Australia 75% Outlaw Pete 74% Bostons Angel 74% Shakervilz 70% Uncle Junior 67% Balthazar King 67% Freneys Well 64% Hoopy 64% Doctor Pat 64% A New Story 60% Long Strand 56% De Danu 56% Reste Demohaison 54% Jacks Island 54% Saddlers Storm 52% Northern Alliance 51% Paco Jack 49% Big Shu 48% Leac An Scail 48% Fredo 48% Pentiffic 47% Triggerman 44% Nedzer´s Return 43% Backstage 43% Gullible Gordon 43% Clear Hills 43% Another Jewel 42% Hey Big Spender 41% Wedger Pardy 41% Double Dizzy 39% Shalimar Fromentro 38% Victrix Gale 36% Drawn N Drank 36% Midnight Haze 34% Pearse 33% Cool Operator 33% Quick Fire 32% Passato 28% Any Currency 28% Poker De Sivola 28% Dashing George 22% Sacree Tiepy 21% Sanjaka De Thaix 21% Shortlist Arabella Boy 81% Chicago Grey 75% Sizing Australia 75% Outlaw Pete 74% Bostons Angel 74% Arabella Boy stands clear at the top, with the four remaining horses very tightly bunched. Chicago Grey is the class horse, and if taking to these fences, could turn this into a procession if on a going day, as stamina certainly won't be an issue. We have a former winner in Sizing Australia (let me down last year) and Outlaw Pete is a C&D winner. The former classy Bostons Angel makes up the quintet. Could end up having a couple of bets here, but purely on trends... Selection: Arabella Boy |
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Thanks, JOCI.
I love the Cross Country Chase |
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Pulteney Novices Chase
A tough one to weigh up with any confidence at the moment, with so many runners still engaged, but here are the main trends I evaluated each horse against: 7 year olds have won 6 of the 8 runnings from approximately 41.7% of the total runners. The last 7 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s highly likely all runners will have at least 10-11. In past 2 years all 8 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more. Horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 7 renewals and filled 23 of 32 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures. 8 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out 6 of 8 winners posted a career high RPR of 136+ last time out 7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (exception finished in first three in 3 of 4 chase starts) 6 of 8 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase 8 of 8 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season 5 of 8 winners had won just 1 chase (exceptions had won 0 or 2 chases) 8 of 8 winners had their last run in past 60 days 7 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception not run over further than 2M 2F) 4 of 8 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival 6 of 8 winners were officially rated 125+ over hurdles 6 of 8 winners had run no more than 7 times over hurdles 4 of 8 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle 7 of 8 winners came from the first 5 in the betting And based purely on those (weighted) trends, here is my ranking of the runners: The Druids Nephew 74% Forgotten Gold 69% Vulcanite 68% Carlito Brigante 66% Attaglance 66% Star Neuville 64% Colour Squadron 63% Poole Master 62% Saphir River 61% Act Of Kalanisi 60% Ohio Gold 60% Tetlami 59% Fourjacks 59% Nuts N Bolts 59% Eastlake 59% Safran De Cotte 58% Alderwood 57% Savello 57% Yurok 57% Russian War 57% Opening Batsman 56% Buckers Bridge 56% The Tracey Shuffle 56% Tour D´Argent 55% Grove Pride 55% Ballypatrick 55% Rouge Et Blanc 54% Howard´s Legacy 53% Hazy Tom 53% Chartreux 53% White Star Line 53% Restless Harry 52% Swift Arrow 52% Dare Me 52% Toner D´Oudairies 51% Johns Spirit 50% The Cockney Mackem 50% Battle Group 50% Nataani 49% Prima Vista 49% Shangani 47% Saved By John 47% Tikawa Moirette 47% Beeverstown 47% Top Smart 47% What A Warrior 46% Kealigolane 46% Kapga De Cerisy 45% Bobowen 45% Urgence D´Estruval 45% Escort´men 45% Please Talk 45% Tenor Nivernais 44% Ackertac 44% Arthur´s Pass 44% Arbeo 43% Real Milan 41% Farrells Fancy 41% Mountainous 41% Sweet My Lord 40% Tony Star 40% Kingsmere 40% Garynella 40% Clouded Thoughts 40% Rajdhani Express 38% Rebel Rebellion 38% Parsnip Pete 38% Kruzhlinin 37% Canaly 37% Sustainability 36% Bennys Mist 36% Renard D´Irlande 35% Saoirse Dun 35% Shuil Royale 35% Gores Island 35% Sew On Target 34% No Planning 33% Nobunaga 29% Megastar 28% Klepht 27% Miradane 26% Merrion Square 26% Ice ´N´ Easy 26% On The Bridge 22% The Druids Nephew is nicely clear on the trends, with plenty others bunching up behind him. I will be almost certain to have another bet closer to the time, with any one of the other top 5 or 6 horses coming under consideration. Selection: The Druids Nephew - current 13.5 here. |
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it's grown on me too
- let's face it none of us had a clue what was going on when it first ran but the form holds together quite well. |
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JOCI's going deep now - the Pulteney already! good work.
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Was a bit of a marathon effort ploughing through all those runners.
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JLT Specialty Chase
Trends: 10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners. 7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured. All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143. 8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won) 8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start 8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers) 10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase 9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases 3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+ 7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1 And based on the above, here's the ranking of what is still a very large field: Duke Of Lucca17 95% Cantlow64 94% Saint Are24 89% Magnanimity33 89% Monbeg Dude24 89% On Trend38 88% Prince Of Pirates32 88% Bensalem30 84% Golden Chieftain18 84% Ballynagour18 83% Court By Surprise87 83% No Secrets21 83% Carlito Brigante25F 82% Monkerty Tunkerty20 82% Opening Batsman17 80% Muirhead12 78% Alfie Sherrin75 78% Cross Appeal75 78% Rigadin De Beauchene24 78% Same Difference17 78% Knockara Beau34 77% Fruity O´Rooney45 77% Chartreux54 77% Panther Claw47 77% Super Duty38 76% Rolling Aces17 76% Loch Ba55 75% Nuts N Bolts28 75% Frisco Depot18 72% Tour Des Champs24 71% Jadanli21 70% Realt Mor10 70% Merry King80 69% Lost Glory150 69% Cloudy Too24 69% Sweeney Tunes16 67% Mountainous25 67% Quinz17 66% Problema Tic18 66% Romanesco35 66% Wyck Hill17 66% One In A Milan38 66% Ackertac45 65% Walkon45 64% Battle Group45 64% Ballyoliver12 5x 64% Tarquinius47 64% Summery Justice17 61% Quel Esprit31 59% Bold Sir Brian45 59% Sire Collonges115 59% Tatenen24 59% Bahrain Storm11 59% Sunnyhillboy59 58% Tullamore Dew45 58% Planet Of Sound88 57% Our Mick45 57% Nadiya De La Vega45 57% Tenor Nivernais16 56% Major Malarkey24 55% Relax25 54% Thegreatjohnbrowne45 54% The Rainbow Hunter24 54% Our Father31 53% Johns Spirit45 53% De Boitron37 53% Dashing George18 53% The Package59 52% Deal Done115 51% Tartak10 51% White Star Line17 51% Calgary Bay10 51% Poole Master26 51% Gullinbursti45 51% Hey Big Spender31 50% Billie Magern88 49% Pete The Feat32 46% Time For Spring46 46% Pentiffic40 46% Lively Baron24 46% Lambro12 46% Quantitativeeasing17 45% Glenquest47 45% Bescot Springs101 41% Toner D´Oudairies44 39% Balthazar King116 39% Quartz De Thaix24 35% Midnight Chase45 32% Odysseas107 32% Kakagh26 32% Riguez Dancer26 28% Prophete De Guye20 21% Plein Pouvoir18 21% Duke of Lucca and Cantlow lead the way on the stats / trends. I very much like the look of Cantlow, but at this stage, there can be no bet as there are doubts over which race he might be going for. Of the stats above, I've not actually factored in the SP yet, as the current prices are higher than what they will be on the day, but should Cantlow line up, he'd be sure to be amongst the favourites, and as such, would finish top of the rankings. |