Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Ok really looked at this race again. As I said because it's overlooked it's a race to make some money.
We know Uncle Junior will be top weight on 11-12
We know Balthazar King was beat 11l off levels last time they met, so I'd guess Handicapper will let him have a 10lbs swing in weights given UJ has lost twice since.
I think Arabella Boy will be next in weights having won twice over Punchestowns Banks this season, he was defo beat in his only visit to Chelts when he fell but I'd say h/cer will give him next weight of around 11-0 but could be more depending on how he rates his Irish wins.
Bostons Angel and Outlaw Pete are tough to rate, Pete was 3rd then 1st in his two cross country races at Cheltenham this season. He got a mega 19lbs swing at weights with UJ from the first to 2nd of those races. UJ looked beat when he unseated in Dec run. But I think Handicapper will believe he gave Pete a too lowly mark. I can see him being on around at least 10-11 or higher.
But this leaves Bostons Angel who is tricky to rate, he was giving Pete 13lbs for 7l defeat that time. But he's been beaten by Arabella Boy twice at Punchestown this season so can't be on a higher mark than him surely. He may get away well at the weights with Pete for that run lto and may only be a pound or two higher in the race. So 10-13 maybe
Interesting is Sizing Australia, I imagine under top weight in Nov cross country race his aim was to get beaten but run fairly creditably so as to get a swing at the weights in the festival. He had an 8l defeat last year to Balthazar King conceding 4lbs. So he should be on 10-12 based on that run, but I can see him, being given a chance this year and possibly dropped another 6lbs to 10-6
His record over c&d is 3203146 with the 0 being all manner of in running problems, especially at the end when in touch being hampered and squeezed out. The 6 lto as I mentioned is an obvious attempt to get his mark down.
Lac An Sceal and Double Dizzy would intered a little bit if off 10-0 or lower as they'd be weighted to reverse form with Pete and bostons from Dec race, improvement for first runs over banks could be expected too. They'd be big prices.
So what we are looking for when the weights are out. Well I put them on the following. With a * meaning they are the ones who could be higher than they are, but be surprised if they are lower.
Uncle Junior 10-12
Balthazar King 11-2
Arabella Boy 11-0*
Bostons Angel 10-12*
Outlaw Pete 10-11*
Sizing Australia 10-6*
Uncle Junior is not weighted to reverse form with anyone and top weights have a horrid recent record 0/3 Handicapper has got to grips with the race now. Even trainer believes he has too much weight. Can't be backed.
Balthazar King being young for this race should have improvement potentially for 3 runs over c&d and weighted to beat UJ and Outlaw Pete. Very interesting.
Arabellas Boy is a Punchestown banks horse not a Chelts one and he cannot be bet given his run over c&d in Dec was pretty poor.
Bostons Angel is interesting if he's near to Pete in the weights and can improve from his first run over c&d. Had a bit of class too in his novice days/
Sizing Australia is right back in the mix if down near bottom of weights. A New Story showed that consistent runners in this race can bag the prize in advancing years when down in weights.
Balthazar King's weight is pretty certain to be within a pound or two of 11-2 so he can be backed now e/w 4 places 7/1.
Bostons Angel and Sizing Australia interest if near or below 10-12 and 10-6 respectively when weights are released.
We know Uncle Junior will be top weight on 11-12
We know Balthazar King was beat 11l off levels last time they met, so I'd guess Handicapper will let him have a 10lbs swing in weights given UJ has lost twice since.
I think Arabella Boy will be next in weights having won twice over Punchestowns Banks this season, he was defo beat in his only visit to Chelts when he fell but I'd say h/cer will give him next weight of around 11-0 but could be more depending on how he rates his Irish wins.
Bostons Angel and Outlaw Pete are tough to rate, Pete was 3rd then 1st in his two cross country races at Cheltenham this season. He got a mega 19lbs swing at weights with UJ from the first to 2nd of those races. UJ looked beat when he unseated in Dec run. But I think Handicapper will believe he gave Pete a too lowly mark. I can see him being on around at least 10-11 or higher.
But this leaves Bostons Angel who is tricky to rate, he was giving Pete 13lbs for 7l defeat that time. But he's been beaten by Arabella Boy twice at Punchestown this season so can't be on a higher mark than him surely. He may get away well at the weights with Pete for that run lto and may only be a pound or two higher in the race. So 10-13 maybe
Interesting is Sizing Australia, I imagine under top weight in Nov cross country race his aim was to get beaten but run fairly creditably so as to get a swing at the weights in the festival. He had an 8l defeat last year to Balthazar King conceding 4lbs. So he should be on 10-12 based on that run, but I can see him, being given a chance this year and possibly dropped another 6lbs to 10-6
His record over c&d is 3203146 with the 0 being all manner of in running problems, especially at the end when in touch being hampered and squeezed out. The 6 lto as I mentioned is an obvious attempt to get his mark down.
Lac An Sceal and Double Dizzy would intered a little bit if off 10-0 or lower as they'd be weighted to reverse form with Pete and bostons from Dec race, improvement for first runs over banks could be expected too. They'd be big prices.
So what we are looking for when the weights are out. Well I put them on the following. With a * meaning they are the ones who could be higher than they are, but be surprised if they are lower.
Uncle Junior 10-12
Balthazar King 11-2
Arabella Boy 11-0*
Bostons Angel 10-12*
Outlaw Pete 10-11*
Sizing Australia 10-6*
Uncle Junior is not weighted to reverse form with anyone and top weights have a horrid recent record 0/3 Handicapper has got to grips with the race now. Even trainer believes he has too much weight. Can't be backed.
Balthazar King being young for this race should have improvement potentially for 3 runs over c&d and weighted to beat UJ and Outlaw Pete. Very interesting.
Arabellas Boy is a Punchestown banks horse not a Chelts one and he cannot be bet given his run over c&d in Dec was pretty poor.
Bostons Angel is interesting if he's near to Pete in the weights and can improve from his first run over c&d. Had a bit of class too in his novice days/
Sizing Australia is right back in the mix if down near bottom of weights. A New Story showed that consistent runners in this race can bag the prize in advancing years when down in weights.
Balthazar King's weight is pretty certain to be within a pound or two of 11-2 so he can be backed now e/w 4 places 7/1.
Bostons Angel and Sizing Australia interest if near or below 10-12 and 10-6 respectively when weights are released.
Show More
Been chipping away at Balthazar King for a while now,Likes Cheltenham and seems love these banks races,Been off for a while waiting for the better ground(Form coming off a 90+ day absence reads 1,1,1,1,1,1)
Arabella Boy rates the main danger for me,The PP Hogan is a top trial for this race with 3 winners and 3 places from last 6 winners who came here afterwards,Not very adventurous i know but not a race for outsiders(7 of last 8 were 13/2 or less and in the top 3 in the betting)
Good luck CVB.
Arabella Boy rates the main danger for me,The PP Hogan is a top trial for this race with 3 winners and 3 places from last 6 winners who came here afterwards,Not very adventurous i know but not a race for outsiders(7 of last 8 were 13/2 or less and in the top 3 in the betting)
Good luck CVB.
Uncle Junior 'can't be backed'? This horse is sure to run a very big race in my opinion. Mr Mullins has been very careful not to over exert UJ in the lead up to the Festival. I fancy you could be eating your words.
Patsy he went up 19lbs for his win earlier this season and Mullins even says he will have too much weight in his stable tour. Top weights have poor recent record.
gutfeeling, I'd agree Arablla would be a danger if he was running any kind of race in the Dec cross country at Cheltenham. Enda even said after his win lto that he seems to love Punchestowns cross country course. Think he'll be handicapped on his wins there while he's less effective on the Cheltenham one, combined with being fav he's no bet in this.
As my post suggests, we need to see weights before firming up opinions.
gutfeeling, I'd agree Arablla would be a danger if he was running any kind of race in the Dec cross country at Cheltenham. Enda even said after his win lto that he seems to love Punchestowns cross country course. Think he'll be handicapped on his wins there while he's less effective on the Cheltenham one, combined with being fav he's no bet in this.
As my post suggests, we need to see weights before firming up opinions.
True enough about the weights,Maybe AB needs to get used to travelling over but he's certainly a player if he brings his Irish banks form to the table.
Do think BK at the current prices is the best play e/w unless he takes the wrong course
Do think BK at the current prices is the best play e/w unless he takes the wrong course
GOOD MAN CV for putting this thread up !
Arabella Boy (6), Outlaw Pete (6), Balthazar King (7), Uncle Junior (8), Bostons Angel (10), Chicago Grey (10), Big Shu (14), Sizing Australia (14), Maljimar (20), Shakervilz (20), Another Jewel (33), Double Dizzy (33), Leac An Scail (33), Wedger Pardy (33)
Arabella Boy (6), Outlaw Pete (6), Balthazar King (7), Uncle Junior (8), Bostons Angel (10), Chicago Grey (10), Big Shu (14), Sizing Australia (14), Maljimar (20), Shakervilz (20), Another Jewel (33), Double Dizzy (33), Leac An Scail (33), Wedger Pardy (33)
Chicago Grey doesn't run, goes straight to national by the way. One less horse to fight for a place. Down to 5 real runners.
Keen on Balthazar as well but will wait until ground conditions clearer. I think he will need good in the description to win again.
Cross country course is always faster than the rest of the course,Might be some extra watering this year but i'd be expecting good ground.(Last 5 years been GF,GF,G,GS,GS)
think bostons is the one here,i remember jessie said he come back to himself since his first attempt over the banks and the better ground will give him a great chance
I'm all over Bostons Angel, his RSA win a few years back stands out in this company, just hoping for a nice weight & then all systems go.
what u think re his weight deplasterer...i reckon in and around the 11 stone mark ,hopefully a couple of pound less
If Outlaw Pete's getting a pound off Bostons Angel I'd be very pleased with my 7-1.
Tyrone, I think around 11 stone would be around the mark, anything less a bonus & the ground looks like being perfect for him.
yeah agree totally re the ground,coming nicely for him
backed Bostons Angel , ran below par last time, but his run prior over C&D was really eyecatching for me, he travelled great that day. Better ground should help over 31f. 10/1 big price for a multiple Grade 1 winner.
Balthazar King must have great chance of repeat win given good, good/soft grounf given his cracking course record, must go well imo.
I like the 15yo 
A New Story. Does chuff all the whole season then comes to life around this course but particularly at the Festival/spring.
A New Story. Does chuff all the whole season then comes to life around this course but particularly at the Festival/spring.
Be keen to hear if Ferdy is committing Poker De Siv for this - couple of quiet runs back following a long lay off, sure to get the trip and a feather weight
Love this race.
Would love my A New Story to run well. Hopefully a happy retirement won't be too far away for him after this.
Would love my A New Story to run well. Hopefully a happy retirement won't be too far away for him after this.
Czech on the strength of the below I have backed him at 20s, and will go in again
"Poker De Sivola is very well and fresh. He finished sixth in the race a couple of years ago, but we were using that as a prep for something else to sweeten him up," he said.
"He ran an unbelievable race in the Becher, he was right in contention until he just got tired coming to the last and James (Reveley) said he jumped really well. We had been looking to the Grand National with him but the handicapper dropped him 3lb for that and he won't get in this year, so this is the target.
"The plan is the cross-country race and then we'll put him away for the year and work towards the Becher in November and then, hopefully, the National. He's a classy horse, a Festival and Whitbread winner, with not much mileage on the clock."
"Poker De Sivola is very well and fresh. He finished sixth in the race a couple of years ago, but we were using that as a prep for something else to sweeten him up," he said.
"He ran an unbelievable race in the Becher, he was right in contention until he just got tired coming to the last and James (Reveley) said he jumped really well. We had been looking to the Grand National with him but the handicapper dropped him 3lb for that and he won't get in this year, so this is the target.
"The plan is the cross-country race and then we'll put him away for the year and work towards the Becher in November and then, hopefully, the National. He's a classy horse, a Festival and Whitbread winner, with not much mileage on the clock."
Is Chicago Grey definately a non-runner? I recall what Gordon Elliot said directly after his last race, but there still appears to be a few people looking to back it.
I have had a nibble on Any Currency at 25/1 after Keighly said he will line up. Think he's weighted very well if taking to the fences. However, of the proven cross country horses Balthazar King should hose up. Good Ground and not carrying too much should be enough for him. A very good price at the min for an each way certainty 
I have had a nibble on Any Currency at 25/1 after Keighly said he will line up. Think he's weighted very well if taking to the fences. However, of the proven cross country horses Balthazar King should hose up. Good Ground and not carrying too much should be enough for him. A very good price at the min for an each way certainty Excited
Keighley was going to school him over the fences (he's based in Cheltenham)before deciding - if he's decided to run I assume he schooled well.
I'm interested in him and possibly Hey Big Spender too - can see a step change in this race soon - quality of horses with no experience over the fences is improving.
Keighley was going to school him over the fences (he's based in Cheltenham)before deciding - if he's decided to run I assume he schooled well.
I'm interested in him and possibly Hey Big Spender too - can see a step change in this race soon - quality of horses with no experience over the fences is improving.
Chicago Grey isn't running and is being saved for the Grand National. It's a pity as he would have been a very interesting contender.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539