*** The Cross Country H/C Chase***

Ok really looked at this race again. As I said because it's overlooked it's a race to make some money.

We know Uncle Junior will be top weight on 11-12

We know Balthazar King was beat 11l off levels last time they met, so I'd guess Handicapper will let him have a 10lbs swing in weights given UJ has lost twice since.

I think Arabella Boy will be next in weights having won twice over Punchestowns Banks this season, he was defo beat in his only visit to Chelts when he fell but I'd say h/cer will give him next weight of around 11-0 but could be more depending on how he rates his Irish wins.

Bostons Angel and Outlaw Pete are tough to rate, Pete was 3rd then 1st in his two cross country races at Cheltenham this season. He got a mega 19lbs swing at weights with UJ from the first to 2nd of those races. UJ looked beat when he unseated in Dec run. But I think Handicapper will believe he gave Pete a too lowly mark. I can see him being on around at least 10-11 or higher.

But this leaves Bostons Angel who is tricky to rate, he was giving Pete 13lbs for 7l defeat that time. But he's been beaten by Arabella Boy twice at Punchestown this season so can't be on a higher mark than him surely. He may get away well at the weights with Pete for that run lto and may only be a pound or two higher in the race. So 10-13 maybe

Interesting is Sizing Australia, I imagine under top weight in Nov cross country race his aim was to get beaten but run fairly creditably so as to get a swing at the weights in the festival. He had an 8l defeat last year to Balthazar King conceding 4lbs. So he should be on 10-12 based on that run, but I can see him, being given a chance this year and possibly dropped another 6lbs to 10-6

His record over c&d is 3203146 with the 0 being all manner of in running problems, especially at the end when in touch being hampered and squeezed out. The 6 lto as I mentioned is an obvious attempt to get his mark down.

Lac An Sceal and Double Dizzy would intered a little bit if off 10-0 or lower as they'd be weighted to reverse form with Pete and bostons from Dec race, improvement for first runs over banks could be expected too. They'd be big prices.

So what we are looking for when the weights are out. Well I put them on the following. With a * meaning they are the ones who could be higher than they are, but be surprised if they are lower.

Uncle Junior 10-12
Balthazar King 11-2
Arabella Boy 11-0*
Bostons Angel 10-12*
Outlaw Pete 10-11*
Sizing Australia 10-6*

Uncle Junior is not weighted to reverse form with anyone and top weights have a horrid recent record 0/3 Handicapper has got to grips with the race now. Even trainer believes he has too much weight. Can't be backed.

Balthazar King being young for this race should have improvement potentially for 3 runs over c&d and weighted to beat UJ and Outlaw Pete. Very interesting.

Arabellas Boy is a Punchestown banks horse not a Chelts one and he cannot be bet given his run over c&d in Dec was pretty poor.

Bostons Angel is interesting if he's near to Pete in the weights and can improve from his first run over c&d. Had a bit of class too in his novice days/

Sizing Australia is right back in the mix if down near bottom of weights. A New Story showed that consistent runners in this race can bag the prize in advancing years when down in weights.

Balthazar King's weight is pretty certain to be within a pound or two of 11-2 so he can be backed now e/w 4 places 7/1.

Bostons Angel and Sizing Australia interest if near or below 10-12 and 10-6 respectively when weights are released.