Cheltenham Festival
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11 Feb 13
21:02
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Date Joined:
14 Oct 05
Can anyone explain why this horse is 24s on here for the Supreme. At the very least I have him 3rd in the market and cannot see how in the very minimum he is not a tradeable price. He is everything I like in a horse, game as a pebble and will be out staying most up the hill. His run at Leopardstown was maginificent. I opposed him that day but his jumping really stood out to me. It was an incredible improvement from anything he had already done this year.
The major positive is, he is surely definitely going for this race as his stable mate is fav for the Neptune. This horse will be max 8s on the day when Ruby gets jocked up
The major positive is, he is surely definitely going for this race as his stable mate is fav for the Neptune. This horse will be max 8s on the day when Ruby gets jocked up
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I'd say it's far from definite he'll go for the Supreme to be honest. He looked like another couple of furlongs would suit him down to the ground at Leopardstown and it's hard not to see one or two being too quick for him in the Supreme. Also, stable has Un Atout in the Supreme (although he's been weak enough in the market in recent days), who holds a leading chance. I agree though he's an extremely likable horse, I loved the way he did it at Leopardstown and I'd give him every chance in the Neptune. Bright New Dawn is some beaut though!
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its priced appropriatly imo, has no chance
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I agree Joe, I've backed him for the Neptune but that ship may have sailed. I rate him far shorter than his current odds and will support him when NRNB. If I backed him now he'd likely end up in the Albert Bartlett!
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Silly remark Alleged, of course he has
The funniest thing is the price of those ahead of him in the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see Un Atout swerve Cheltenham. 2 Novice hurdle runs against motley opposition isn't my idea of an ideal prep. Both races were quite slowly run and I would need to see more. If you reversed prices UnAtout 24s CF 10.5, I would understand. Dodging Bullets is another odd price imho. 15s for a horse who has been beaten 4 times out of 6 over hurdles. and on that form River Maguie can only be described as a fair price imho. Even Puffin Billy is the same price (28s ish) and ran a stinker on Sunday and has to be taken on hope he is 1) Good enough and 2) Recovered from whatever ailed him.... |
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I at least had the sense to back Pont Alexandre for any race, which is some consolation at this stage.
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I can understand the point Re: the Neptune but surely no chance he will take on his stable mate (Fav). The Deloitte was used as a prep for Cousin Vinny when he was sent off Fav a few years back. My worry is that CF will need further in time, but with a strong pace and being so game, may just be good enough.
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you might think its silly joe but its my opinion, i can see it finishing 6th or 7th and appropriatly priced atm
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Yeah, I done it after he was beat by Jezki & PA hadn't been seen yet. My only bet so far in the supreme is Un Atout, before his 1st run. Hard to rate him at this stage. CF has looked a battler, especially at Punchestown last year.
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joe has put his case alleged at least back up your argument with some decent reasoning no??
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No offense meant Alleged, just that he has some chance. Sometimes even horses 6/7th in the market win
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the mullins novices are always overated imo, and i think he has a pretty average bunch this year, and imo wont be winning any novice hurdles or chases, although he might win the 4 miler, this will be good for me and or others after HF and QUEVEGA win, because everyone will pile into them and we may get bigger prices on horses with better chances,
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none taken mate think HC has his spoon in the pot and is up for a stir
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I backed him for neptune as well,but i can see him placing in the supreme.I fancy him to finish ahead of Jezki
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Pont Alexandre is not average imo but I agree with the rest. Champagne Fever wont run in the supreme he'll go to the Neptune.
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brooksielad i think you have picked best of the bunch, but to my mind he doesnt beat TNO so its a place market at best. may have egg on me face in 4 weeks but i will not be backing any mullins novices this year.
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I think PA could be a bit special, not many win a Grade 1 on their debut.
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Willie has an excellent bunch of novices this year and it's anybody's guess as to what horses run in the three races!
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Sorry folks, has Willie not said definitively (by his standards) over the last couple of days that Mr Ricci's horses will not clash, that Pont will go for the Neptune, Ballycasey will go for the Albert Bartlett and Champagne will go for the Supreme, in which case I agree with the OP. I'm sure 2m is short of his optimum, but he does have a grade 1 win over course and distance (admittedly with no hurdles) under his belt. And speaking of hurdles, I thought he jumped well in all 4 starts. Anyway, I've had a tenner at 24s.
By the way, we know all about Pont, but if Willie does send a triple grade 1 winner to Cheltenham to race at a trip short of his best because he already has Ballycasey for the Albert Bartlett, I'm thinking Ballcasey must be useful. |
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Champagne Fever has absolutely no chance in a Supreme. You would have to hope for his sanity that Mullins is just playing one of his silly games with punters. How stupid would it be to send out a three-time Grade 1 winner as a recreational runner?
On all known evidence he is massively better than Ballycasey. Unfortunately, they have had a big punt on Ballycasey. If they want to give Champagne Fever the best opportunity to win a Festival race - which is what it should be about - they should either take out Ballycasey or more realistically have two runners in the Albert Bartlett. |
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There best chance of winning one of the novice events is running Pont Alexandre in the AB. He is all stamina and would gallop anything that runs against it into the ground. If he runs Pont Alexandre in the Neptune he'd get done for a turn of foot.
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differentdrum
12 Feb 13 09:53 Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 1,025 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog Champagne Fever has absolutely no chance in a Supreme. You would have to hope for his sanity that Mullins is just playing one of his silly games with punters. How stupid would it be to send out a three-time Grade 1 winner as a recreational runner? On all known evidence he is massively better than Ballycasey. Unfortunately, they have had a big punt on Ballycasey  . If they want to give Champagne Fever the best opportunity to win a Festival race - which is what it should be about - they should either take out Ballycasey or more realistically have two runners in the Albert Bartlett. |
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Before dismissing a Grade 1 course and distance Festival winner as having "no chance" in the Supreme, maybe we would do well to remember the likes of Ebaziyan
 CF well overpriced IMHO |
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He is over-priced if he runs. Mullins has half the Supreme field at this moment in time. 5 to the Supreme, and only one a piece to the Neptune and AB ? ...i'm not so sure, so if anyone was having a bet then i'd advise a concession because he is a good horse and will stay.
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Does CF need to lead, and if so be interesting to see what he would find when headed
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I've gone off this horse a little. Highly talented but think i'll wait until next season when he goes chasing before backing him for anything.
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Wouldn't say he needs to lead at all Bluebirdfan, but it suits over a shorter trip as all he does is gallop. I also wouldn't question his resolution, he usually doesn't let anyhing head him in the first place which is generally a good sign
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agree with diamond on this
watch last years bumper again, held them all off up the hill, stamina is key at chelt, would much rather a battler than a bridle horse, hes my NAP this year lol, hoping townend is on again tho |
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Champion Bumper winners prove to be better over further than 2 mile
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They may well do but IMHO joist is spot on. Every horse has its price and for this horse 24s if running is enormous.
Most ahead of him in the market simply do not deserve their place. Plenty of bumper winners run well such as dunguib and cousin vinny, who ran even better given they had sacks of spuds in the saddle. Al ferof and menorah were both cracking bumper horses. Even last years winner ran 2nd in listed bumper over c&d an contested the champion bumper. |
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Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre, under Rury Walsh, routed seven rivals to win the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown today, moving clear favourite for the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in the process.
A winner of a Grade 1 hurdle at Navan on his only previous Irish start, the son of Dai Jin made all under Walsh, and despite encountering terrible weather conditions (heavy rain and wind), showed a really willing attitude before recording an 11 lengths win over Sizing Gold and the same back to the third placed Our Vinnie. Afterwards an impressed Mullins stated “it was a huge performance to make all in that ground and in that weather and to burn off the horses behind him. He just destroyed them with that good jump at the second last and opened up a gap of four lengths when other horses would be getting tired. “I'm looking forward to going to Cheltenham with him but what I'm really looking forward to is sending him over fences. He has size and scope and has a lovely temperament and am really looking forward to going novice chasing next season.” He added “Ballycasey (the winner's stablemate) looks like he might go for the Albert Bartlett and while Pont Alenandre could go for the Albert Bartlett, he seems to have plenty of speed and will go for the Neptune.” Bookmakers were unanimous in their appraisal of Pont Alexandre's performance, cutting him to clear favourite for the Neptune Novices. Stan James go 4/1f (from 7s) while Paddy Power go 3/1 (from 6s) for the race. Henry De Bromhead, trainer of runner-up Sizing Gold, later reported “it was a lovely run and Andrew (Lynch) felt he rode him a little too cautiously but having said that the winner looks a serious horse. He'll probably get an entry in the two staying novices at Cheltenham and maybe we'll go where the winner (Pont Alexandre) doesn't. Whatever he does this year is a bonus as he is a chaser for next year.” I think he will not run Pont A. in Cheltenham this year (sorry johntucker), Un Atout (Supreme), C.Fever (Neptune) and Ballycasey (Albert B.) imvho  |
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I'm looking forward to going to Cheltenham with him
Wasn't that bit worthy of bold then?! |
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We shall see but can't see trainer or owner running both in one race. Running cf in Deloitte tells me he is heading supreme route IMHO.
How do you come to the conclusion he won't run pont a? |
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Market is surely best source of whether he will run in Neptune. At the mo it says pont a will.
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The market is what worries me about CF, Joe. You don't have to be a formbook anorak to see that 25s is well overpriced for CF, whether you like him or not and want to back or not, opinions are irrelevant here imo because it's as close to fact as we get here that 25s is too big. Therefore, why is he still that price? There must still be some doubt about him going for the Supreme imo, despite Willie's fairly clear indication that he would.
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Sorry folks, has Willie not said definitively (by his standards) over the last couple of days that Mr Ricci's horses will not clash
CCM, just waiting for Willie's excuse (which will disappoint ante-post punters AGAIN !) Happens every muckin year |
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p.s.
C&G for the County H at 16's ? |
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True joist. If there is a doubt about any horse it's cf. I think it's factored though. 50-50 he goes and if he does he'll be single digit odds IMHO
Ruby has no other obvious mount if he runs. No way he chooses dodging bullets over this horse |
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True that. All aboard!! With CF, it takes the total of my Supreme Novices' fancies to 5. I'm 2/13 to still dodge the winner.
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blarney 08 Feb 13 12:16
When Walsh and Mullins were last interviewed they were keen on the Neptune for Pont Alexandre and with last years Champion Bumper form in mind, connections will feel they have the beating of The New One with Champagne Fever (if returning to form). Interesting dilemma for the owner. FWIW, I think PA should skip the festival and be saved for a chasing career next season. Hurdles are not his game.... |