Champagne Fever

its priced appropriatly imo, has no chance

I agree Joe, I've backed him for the Neptune but that ship may have sailed. I rate him far shorter than his current odds and will support him when NRNB. If I backed him now he'd likely end up in the Albert Bartlett!

Silly remark Alleged, of course he has

The funniest thing is the price of those ahead of him in the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see Un Atout swerve Cheltenham. 2 Novice hurdle runs against motley opposition isn't my idea of an ideal prep. Both races were quite slowly run and I would need to see more. If you reversed prices UnAtout 24s CF 10.5, I would understand.

Dodging Bullets is another odd price imho. 15s for a horse who has been beaten 4 times out of 6 over hurdles. and on that form River Maguie can only be described as a fair price imho. Even Puffin Billy is the same price (28s ish) and ran a stinker on Sunday and has to be taken on hope he is 1) Good enough and 2) Recovered from whatever ailed him....

I at least had the sense to back Pont Alexandre for any race, which is some consolation at this stage.

I can understand the point Re: the Neptune but surely no chance he will take on his stable mate (Fav). The Deloitte was used as a prep for Cousin Vinny when he was sent off Fav a few years back. My worry is that CF will need further in time, but with a strong pace and being so game, may just be good enough.

you might think its silly joe but its my opinion, i can see it finishing 6th or 7th and appropriatly priced atm

Yeah, I done it after he was beat by Jezki & PA hadn't been seen yet. My only bet so far in the supreme is Un Atout, before his 1st run. Hard to rate him at this stage. CF has looked a battler, especially at Punchestown last year.

joe has put his case alleged at least back up your argument with some decent reasoning no??

No offense meant Alleged, just that he has some chance. Sometimes even horses 6/7th in the market win 

the mullins novices are always overated imo, and i think he has a pretty average bunch this year, and imo wont be winning any novice hurdles or chases, although he might win the 4 miler, this will be good for me and or others after HF and QUEVEGA win, because everyone will pile into them and we may get bigger prices on horses with better chances,

none taken mate think HC has his spoon in the pot and is up for a stir

I backed him for neptune as well,but i can see him placing in the supreme.I fancy him to finish ahead of Jezki

Pont Alexandre is not average imo but I agree with the rest. Champagne Fever wont run in the supreme he'll go to the Neptune.

brooksielad i think you have picked best of the bunch, but to my mind he doesnt beat TNO so its a place market at best. may have egg on me face in 4 weeks but i will not be backing any mullins novices this year.

I think PA could be a bit special,  not many win a Grade 1 on their debut.

Willie has an excellent bunch of novices this year and it's anybody's guess as to what horses run in the three races!

Sorry folks, has Willie not said definitively (by his standards) over the last couple of days that Mr Ricci's horses will not clash, that Pont will go for the Neptune, Ballycasey will go for the Albert Bartlett and Champagne will go for the Supreme, in which case I agree with the OP. I'm sure 2m is short of his optimum, but he does have a grade 1 win over course and distance (admittedly with no hurdles) under his belt. And speaking of hurdles, I thought he jumped well in all 4 starts. Anyway, I've had a tenner at 24s.
By the way, we know all about Pont, but if Willie does send a triple grade 1 winner to Cheltenham to race at a trip short of his best because he already has Ballycasey for the Albert Bartlett, I'm thinking Ballcasey must be useful.

Champagne Fever has absolutely no chance in a Supreme. You would have to hope for his sanity that Mullins is just playing one of his silly games with punters. How stupid would it be to send out a three-time Grade 1 winner as a recreational runner?

On all known evidence he is massively better than Ballycasey. Unfortunately, they have had a big punt on Ballycasey. If they want to give Champagne Fever the best opportunity to win a Festival race - which is what it should be about - they should either take out Ballycasey or more realistically have two runners in the Albert Bartlett.

There best chance of winning one of the novice events is running Pont Alexandre in the AB. He is all stamina and would gallop anything that runs against it into the ground. If he runs Pont Alexandre in the Neptune he'd get done for a turn of foot.

differentdrum
12 Feb 13 09:53
Joined:
05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 1,025 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Champagne Fever has absolutely no chance in a Supreme. You would have to hope for his sanity that Mullins is just playing one of his silly games with punters. How stupid would it be to send out a three-time Grade 1 winner as a recreational runner?

On all known evidence he is massively better than Ballycasey. Unfortunately, they have had a big punt on Ballycasey. If they want to give Champagne Fever the best opportunity to win a Festival race - which is what it should be about - they should either take out Ballycasey or more realistically have two runners in the Albert Bartlett.

Before dismissing a Grade 1 course and distance Festival winner as having "no chance" in the Supreme, maybe we would do well to remember the likes of Ebaziyan

CF well overpriced IMHO

He is over-priced if he runs. Mullins has half the Supreme field at this moment in time. 5 to the Supreme, and only one a piece to the Neptune and AB ? ...i'm not so sure, so if anyone was having a bet then i'd advise a concession because he is a good horse and will stay.

Does CF need to lead, and if so be interesting to see what he would find when headed

I've gone off this horse a little. Highly talented but think i'll wait until next season when he goes chasing before backing him for anything.

Wouldn't say he needs to lead at all Bluebirdfan, but it suits over a shorter trip as all he does is gallop. I also wouldn't question his resolution, he usually doesn't let anyhing head him in the first place which is generally a good sign

agree with diamond on this

watch last years bumper again, held them all off up the hill, stamina is key at chelt, would much rather a battler than a bridle horse, hes my NAP this year lol, hoping townend is on again tho

Champion Bumper winners prove to be better over further than 2 mile

They may well do but IMHO joist is spot on. Every horse has its price and for this horse 24s if running is enormous.
Most ahead of him in the market simply do not deserve their place. Plenty of bumper winners run well such as dunguib and cousin vinny, who ran even better given they had sacks of spuds in the saddle. Al ferof and menorah were both cracking bumper horses.  Even last years winner ran 2nd in listed bumper over c&d an contested the champion bumper.

Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre, under Rury Walsh, routed seven rivals to win the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown today, moving clear favourite for the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in the process.
A winner of a Grade 1 hurdle at Navan on his only previous Irish start, the son of Dai Jin made all under Walsh, and despite encountering terrible weather conditions (heavy rain and wind), showed a really willing attitude before recording an 11 lengths win over Sizing Gold and the same back to the third placed Our Vinnie.

Afterwards an impressed Mullins stated “it was a huge performance to make all in that ground and in that weather and to burn off the horses behind him. He just destroyed them with that good jump at the second last and opened up a gap of four lengths when other horses would be getting tired.

“I'm looking forward to going to Cheltenham with him but what I'm really looking forward to is sending him over fences. He has size and scope and has a lovely temperament and am really looking forward to going novice chasing next season.”
He added “Ballycasey (the winner's stablemate) looks like he might go for the Albert Bartlett and while Pont Alenandre could go for the Albert Bartlett, he seems to have plenty of speed and will go for the Neptune.”

Bookmakers were unanimous in their appraisal of Pont Alexandre's performance, cutting him to clear favourite for the Neptune Novices. Stan James go 4/1f (from 7s) while Paddy Power go 3/1 (from 6s) for the race.

Henry De Bromhead, trainer of runner-up Sizing Gold, later reported “it was a lovely run and Andrew (Lynch) felt he rode him a little too cautiously but having said that the winner looks a serious horse. He'll probably get an entry in the two staying novices at Cheltenham and maybe we'll go where the winner (Pont Alexandre) doesn't. Whatever he does this year is a bonus as he is a chaser for next year.”

I think he will not run Pont A. in Cheltenham this year (sorry johntucker), Un Atout (Supreme), C.Fever (Neptune) and Ballycasey (Albert B.) imvho

I'm looking forward to going to Cheltenham with him

Wasn't that bit worthy of bold then?!

We shall see but can't see trainer or owner running both in one race. Running cf in Deloitte tells me he is heading supreme route IMHO.

How do you come to the conclusion he won't run pont a?

Market is surely best source of whether he will run in Neptune. At the mo it says pont a will.

The market is what worries me about CF, Joe. You don't have to be a formbook anorak to see that 25s is well overpriced for CF, whether you like him or not and want to back or not, opinions are irrelevant here imo because it's as close to fact as we get here that 25s is too big. Therefore, why is he still that price? There must still be some doubt about him going for the Supreme imo, despite Willie's fairly clear indication that he would.

Sorry folks, has Willie not said definitively (by his standards) over the last couple of days that Mr Ricci's horses will not clash

CCM,
just waiting for Willie's excuse (which will disappoint ante-post punters AGAIN !)

Happens every muckin year

p.s.

C&G for the County H at 16's ?

True joist. If there is a doubt about any horse it's cf. I think it's factored though. 50-50 he goes and if he does he'll be single digit odds IMHO
Ruby has no other obvious mount if he runs. No way he chooses dodging bullets over this horse

True that. All aboard!! With CF, it takes the total of my Supreme Novices' fancies to 5. I'm 2/13 to still dodge the winner.

blarney 08 Feb 13 12:16
When Walsh and Mullins were last interviewed they were keen on the Neptune for Pont Alexandre and with last years Champion Bumper form in mind, connections will feel they have the beating of The New One with Champagne Fever (if returning to form).
Interesting dilemma for the owner.
FWIW, I think PA should skip the festival and be saved for a chasing career next season. Hurdles are not his game....

Yes suppose tht will be the target but doesn't look good enough on the basis of his last run does he?

IMO CF has to go Neptune route and if its supreme then they're not doing the right thing by the horse. In recent years Bumper winners have a poor record whereas horses which placed lower down have done well - must surely be something to do with stamina being more at the forefront of bumper winners and as another yr passes they need further, whereas maybe those lower down are speedier and that year gives them the perfect mix for the supreme. Based on form with Jezki, they know they can't win the supreme with CF. I'd much rather have 1st and 3rd fav in the Neptune than hope CF can outstay everyone up the hill. Supreme looks really strong this year and they already have un atout and piqué sous

That's fair enough Tory :) maybe you are right, but for me it's all about value and even taking into account the fact I would have jezki  ahead of him on my tissue, it still doesn't detract from the fact if he runs 24s is way too big. Plenty of times we see form being reversed given the difference in pace of a race like the supreme. Captain chris had no chance in an arkle after being beaten by ghizao and medermit but turned it around easily. Form especially at the novices races can be moody :)

So CF is running in the Supreme so the owner can have a runner in all 3 novice hurdle races? That makes sense.

I've always thought CF would be well-suited to the Supreme and backed him @ 20/1 after Leopardstown. Couldn't resist topping-up on here at an average of 25/1 or so.

Last year's Bumper was above average (this year's might be a cracker too). If he's in the same form as he was last year, flashier types like MTOY are going to have to fight hard to get past him.

CF is great value unless you're a conspiracy theorist!

CF wont even run in the supreme :)

Patrick Mullins said at a preview tonight that Champagne Fever is Supreme bound!

I might be in a minority but I'm still hoping CF goes to the Neptune and Pont Alex goes for the ABartlett.

lots could happen yet....

Is that the same Patrick Mullins who put Champagne Fever up for the Neptune in the Racing Post even after Pont Alexandre was promoted to favourite?

Can't believe people are mad enough to still be talking the horse up for the Supreme. Last year he made the running and outstayed Melodic Rendezvous on atrocious ground. Dunguib and Cue Card were massively more impressive than he was in taking the Festival Bumper and both came up short in a Supreme. He was well beaten by Jezki despite having an easy lead and the winner jumping poorly. How much more evidence does anyone need - he is too slow and no value at any price. It is a disgrace that connections have reduced a multiple Grade 1 winner to little more than a social runner.

differentdrum
14 Feb 13 13:20
he is too slow and no value at any price.

In that case I'll have a monkey on at 1000.

"It is a disgrace that connections have reduced a multiple Grade 1 winner to little more than a social runner."

That's what happens when you've more money then sense. These new age owners just want an interest in each race even if it means not running a horse at it's optimal distance. I remember O'leary being interviewed pre-Cheltenham last year and the interviewer asked him about a race (GC i think) and he abruptly said "i won't have a runner in it so it doesn't interest me". Don't think Ricci is that bad but still...

So CF is running in the Supreme so the owner can have a runner in all 3 novice hurdle races? That makes sense.

As opposed to the owner running all 3 in the same race


Dunguib and Cue Card were massively more impressive than he was in taking the Festival Bumper and both came up short in a Supreme

Or it could have been both beat up rubbish bumper fields and were found out in the Supreme despite running well.

what makes me laugh is the statement of him being too slow. You've got Un Atout (pi55y novice hurdle winner), MTOY (Handicap winner), Dodging Bullets (2/6, and beaten in any decent race he's contested) ahead of him in the market..........but no the multiple Grade 1 winner and LTO winner at 2m 2f is too slow for a race won in the past by Al Ferof, Noland, Menorah, and other horses who proceeded to win over 2m 4f+

Dunguib and Cue Card were massively more impressive than he was in taking the Festival Bumper and both came up short in a Supreme

Or it could have been both beat up rubbish bumper fields and were found out in the Supreme despite running well.

dunguib beat rite of passage and quel esprit both future grade 1 winners cue card beat al ferof nuff said!

alleged22
15 Feb 13 09:50

dunguib beat rite of passage and quel esprit both future grade 1 winners cue card beat al ferof nuff said!

But Al Ferof (who was 8L too slow to win the Bumper) won the Supreme - where does that leave your argument?

al ferof was carrying 7 lbs more

Patrick Mullins seemed sweet on Champagne Fever on RPTV today, but he said that 2 miles is not his trip, and he didn't say what race he would be heading for

He said the other day he was a good price for the Supreme. The old man has put the blinkers on him.

**** nae chance at the festival in any race muppets

The key to which race CF runs in is Pont Alexandre.   PWM said at the preview Wed that Pont Alexandre is a real Chasing type but IF he runs in Neptune then we will take some beating.  I think that IF was key and felt that decision re PA was done and dusted

I always assume quickish ground at the festival - if it is soft CF will do ok in the Supreme..... if not I ALSO assume they will (CF & PA) shuffle up a race.

I'm not so sure that PA and CF would shuffle up a race. The owner has one in each of the three nbig novice race as things stand. I have my suspicions about PA and Ballycasey though. I think they have a ready made excuse to switch them and land a gamble.

You never know with Mullins but he appears to have a habit of going all the way around the wrekin but eventually ending up in the right place. According to the snippets on ATR it appears there is more than a chance the Supreme idea (if it was ever realistic) will be ditched and he will fall in line with my previous suggestion of running in the Albert Bartlett.

Shows the regard he has for pont al that he is considering upping champagne from 2 miles to 3miles to avoid a clash.

It's nothing got to do with CF avoiding anything - It's all owner related!

What did they say, and who said it ?

Yes Childofmine it is owner related but these three (CF, PA and Ballycasey) are in the same ownership.Willie Mullins stated that he was not going to pitch CF in against PA so if upping in CF trip would run both him and Ballycasey in the three miler.

Sorry Graeme... Wp Mullins stated on ATR this morning that he is toying with the idea of running Champagne Fever in the Albert Bartlet. Owner has a few other entries in the Supreme so that may be swaying him to this decision. Annie Power looked a decent mare on Sunday at Naas also has Fatcatinthe hat. Trainer also stated that the race is run at such a furious pace that if missing either of the first two hurdles or getting shuffled back too far by first bend its race over.

Cheers Oufies. I'm not suprised both of the Mullins put him up as a good price, even said it was a bit disrespectful, and are now toying with the idea of switching races ?

WPM has now said this horse may go further since MTOY hacked up in the Betfair Hurdle. Prior to that he said it was the Supreme because the owner has horses in the Neptune & Albert.

Unbelievable. Must change his mind everyday.

told you agers ago, the plan is CF Neptune PA Spud race.

it would be great if PA went for the spud race - it would resurrect a bet that I had mentally flushed away with my dead goldfish...

he's definitley changed his tune since MTOY won.

Last week in  'The Irish Field' WM said that "his pedigree suggests that he should be going for the Albert Bartlett but at the moment we are leaning towards the Supreme Novices. A lot will depend on the ground....if it gets dry we'll look at the longer race". That's the only reason I won't be backing ante-post, I think he's good enough to win it regardless of the poor record of bumper winners.

With the weather forecast looking like it will be soft and horribly tacky going for Tuesday I am starting to really quite fancy CF for the Supreme.

yeh,i backed him the other day for both when NRNB came in,would not be at all surprised if he won either race to be honest.

According to ADaughter on main forum AP and Paul Nicholls have said Ruby rides. Shorten up my sweety

Does it really matter if Ruby rides?people too strung up about this...I do quite fancy it but wouldn't bother me if the arrogant one wasn't on board

Well the horse will have to take it up fairly early imo,and nowt better than Ruby to work out the fractions at the front,would think it pretty important having him ride.

Yeah but it's not the be-all and end-all and think people get too wrapped up in what Walsh chooses to ride.Townend ain't a bad jockey and must still be pishin himself laughin that Walsh has chosen Unioniste over Boston Bob

I agree. There is the "Jockey Politics" to take into account as well. Ricci is the major owner with Mullins and has big string. As far as I know, Dodging Bullets owners have 1 horse (could be wrong).

Still its big positive to have such an experienced jock on board.

Grounds decided this aint it?

DB likes decent ground,CF likes soft ground.
Thats my take on it.

YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TA F**K WHAT A GAME F**KING HORSE YOU BEAUTY!!!!

haha - where are the all the twats who said he was running in the wrong race.

i was one of those, well done guys

great start

what did you time the race at judo?

3 min 56

1st 3 well clear,,top horses for the future

Un Atout ran a cracker too imo mistake 3 out done for him,Wouldn't write him off

good/soft imo on time

U agree judo?

nope

definitely good

1.8 secs above standard, 2.8 secs slower than track record held by Istabraq = good 100%

take the Arkle time now

nope

definitely good

1.8 secs above standard, 2.8 secs slower than track record held by Istabraq = good 100%

take the Arkle time now

nope

definitely good

1.8 secs above standard, 2.8 secs slower than track record held by Istabraq = good 100%

take the Arkle time now

on ch4 they are still claiming its soft good to soft in places, surely this is misleading the public??... also claisse has been very misleading....

yup, totally misleading

the Arkle will tell us more

3m 52s standard here

very well done djq

Arkle judo? Chase track slower ??

yes BJG

9 seconds slower than standard = good to soft on the chase course

Thought so, ta

JLT +10s compared to standard, confirms good to soft in the Chase course

We knew, DJQ