Cheltenham Festival
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I keep coming back to Dodging Bullets.
Slightly more exposed than others I suppose but his form has far more substance to it than the rest.
Surely ought to be shorter than River Maigue?
Slightly more exposed than others I suppose but his form has far more substance to it than the rest.
Surely ought to be shorter than River Maigue?
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When I look at it I think 'what the fack am I doing having a bet in this'.
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Generally one of the most difficult races at the festival. Worth avoiding normally.
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Nothing like finding the winner of the first race of the week though!
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I've never backed the winner of this race.
I still have nightmares about Sweet Wake. Lumped on all year. I was allready spending my winnings before the race. He turned out to be not very good. Ruined my festival. |
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Dodging Bullets has the highest OR and joint highest RPR..... ok you say he is a little exposed but have you also noticed he runs his best at Cheltenham. He is only listed to run in this race too and Nicholls loves him - everything to like.
I have also got a feeling along with a little evidence that Dubawi will end up sireing a lot of NH winners with his start so far. 24 runners over jumps... and he already has these five. Dodging Bullets 153 Vulcanite 145 Palawi 143 Hisaabaat 142 Brick Red 137 I quite like these tough types, better than looking for 'monsters' under the bed. |
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I really think we would have to have a good'un to beat DB. Always a chance there is one or two, but I can't believe he's a 10/1 shot on the day.
Beaten 7l by 2nd fav for Champion hurdle (albeit a crazy price) but with rock solid Raya Star in second that form stands up. |
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Can't have Dodging Bullets on my mind for this race. I don't think he is a bad horse but he doesn't have that extra gear to get away from good horses. He doesn't travel well and his hurdling is questionable. Readily dismissed imo...
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most Supreme winners have had 2 to 4 starts over hurdles and have either won them all or never been worse than second
Dodging Bullets would therefore be an unusual winner and I will say he won't be the winner if I'm honest |
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Certainly doesn't have the profile of a normal winner, but I can't just dismiss the horse with the best form in the race and a course winner.
I like the fact he has the experience of the hustle and bustle of a big race at the festival to. |
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course an distance winner goes on all ground best form over here imo cant see it being out the frame and on at big prices, i want the irish to plunge on jezki and are be happy to lay, not sure he likes the hill at chelt as found nothing coming round the bend in bumper last year, i know horses improve with age but not for me
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If he was good enough to win a supreme he'd have a bigger rating after all those starts. My tent or yours will destroy everything come the supreme.
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even on soft ground brooksie
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Melodic Rendezvous should have the beating of Dodging Bullets on a line through Court Minstrel. Melodic also has the benefit of a Cheltenham victory and that form was well franked by Mr Watson at the weekend. He looks very much on the upgrade and it was an above average Tolworth that he won when he once again showed his liking for a stiff uphill finish. I'm amazed he's not single figures
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melodric is my other bet in race form is solid
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Heavy I'd worry, but it will be G/S come the day as per usual.
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Still 14's with ladcrooks but they now have gone 1/5th a place the weigh anchors
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Looks like it will be a great race this year, some very good young novices coming through
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Every time I look at all races, I still come back to DB! Just can't believe he is 14/1. Still the ap bet of the week for me.
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He may be more exposed but he did not make his hurdling debut until 25th Feb last year. I don't particularly fancy him but the race is quite open, as always!
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Regarding the trends angle I believe both Capt Ceebee and Menorah have bucked the trend in recent years. Capt Ceebee hadn't run in the calendar year and Menorah had finished 2nd last time out both usually big negatives from a trends viewpoint. I've warmed to this horse and at 14/1 is definitely good value in my book.
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I'm surprised Nicholls doesn't have anything else for the race tbh.
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chief dan
31 Jan 13 21:29 Joined: 03 Nov 04 | Topic/replies: 819 | Blogger: chief dan's blog course an distance winner goes on all ground best form over here imo cant see it being out the frame and on at big prices, i want the irish to plunge on jezki and are be happy to lay, not sure he likes the hill at chelt as found nothing coming round the bend in bumper last year, i know horses improve with age but not for me horse has never run in a bumper pal...he did however run on the flat where he finished an improving 93 handicapper hope this helps |
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eh?
Harry, Jezki ran in the festival bumper mate,all getting to you? |
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apologies dan 3 nights on the drink affecting my eyesight...
budd  |
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quiscover fontaine getting round in one piece and back in his box is affecting me budd lol
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no worries harry im a fan of horses for courses, an wasnt impressed by the way he came up the hill at festival bumper m8 but like i said he could of improved from last year
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actually agree with you dan...just read it wrong...my main concern with jezki is, he isn't going to prep don't like that myself.
its drinking week for me... takes away the pain of a heavy wager placed in the albert bartlett hurdle...think i'll just get back on the drink today ...although the liver is feeling tender with the vodka that has pounded the poor organ |
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lol yea im going on a leo sayer in a bit great day of sport racing, 6 nations rugby, then united cant wait b rough tomoz though
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alright Harry mate, feeling delicate? You still haven't let me know what you've backed in that Bartlet race, as you're on any chance?
I've dutched 2 or 3 in three quarters of the races today for decent money  am promised a dog for next Friday, the last two both won, direct from the trainer - will e-mail ya |
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will survive judo
but a tad...well tricky as maybe topping up more as cannot find another race with such a good betting opportunity at the price at festival...not one for hyping although just put up a quiscover thread of whom am keen to hype to the max as is a life changer and want the trade although will take the pain and ride it if i cannot... opinionated nob at times |
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Id Like Champagne fever to come back for this, apparently there was a respiratory problem lto, we KNOW this one gets up the Hill!!
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I probably wouldn't be getting on before the day of the race market Harry as I will be going in play so there's no danger I will nick ya price
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Champagne Fever will be Neptune bound if he's right. PA will then go for the AB.
The only real star novice hurdler for me coming from Ireland will be Pont Alexandre. Seriously convinced myself My Tent Or Yours is a very special horse, I haven't seen anything travel like him in a race before, just the way he powers past horses like there standing still. I genuinely think he'll be a champion hurdle horse next year. I also think Taquin Du Seuil is a big price for the Neptune aswell he'll be at least half the price on the day stays ever so well but also has lots of pace. Novice Hurdle Treble: Supreme - My Tent Or Yours 10/1 Neptune - Taquin Du Seuil 10/1 Albert - Pont Alexandre 5/1 |
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Im on Bullets @ 20/1 and My Tent Or Yours @ 14/1
A certain Don Cossack runs over 2 miles in Ireland tomorrow who's entered for this and the Neptune, 79/1 could look rather big soon. |
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Should be 79/1 to run in the Neptune,if he is impressive tomorrow over 2m,surely goes for the supreme,if he doesn't win,won't be travelling.
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I sincerely hope he doesn't emerge as a Supreme candidate with all my shillings on Un Atout
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PA neptune
Ballycasey A bartlett latest from trainer |
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he changes his mind a lot though that trainer budd
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