Every time I look at the Supreme....

When I look at it I think 'what the fack am I doing having a bet in this'.

Generally one of the most difficult races at the festival. Worth avoiding normally.

Nothing like finding the winner of the first race of the week though!

I've never backed the winner of this race.

I still have nightmares about Sweet Wake. Lumped on all year. I was allready spending my winnings before the race.

He turned out to be not very good. Ruined my festival.

Dodging Bullets has the highest OR and joint highest RPR..... ok you say he is a little exposed but have you also noticed he runs his best at Cheltenham. He is only listed to run in this race too and Nicholls loves him - everything to like.

I have also got a feeling along with a little evidence that Dubawi will end up sireing a lot of NH winners with his start so far. 24 runners over jumps... and he already has these five.
 
Dodging Bullets 153
Vulcanite 145
Palawi 143
Hisaabaat 142
Brick Red 137

I quite like these tough types, better than looking for 'monsters' under the bed.

I really think we would have to have a good'un to beat DB. Always a chance there is one or two, but I can't believe he's a 10/1 shot on the day.

Beaten 7l by 2nd fav for Champion hurdle (albeit a crazy price) but with rock solid Raya Star in second that form stands up.

Can't have Dodging Bullets on my mind for this race. I don't think he is a bad horse but he doesn't have that extra gear to get away from good horses. He doesn't travel well and his hurdling is questionable. Readily dismissed imo...

most Supreme winners have had 2 to 4 starts over hurdles and have either won them all or never been worse than second

Dodging Bullets would therefore be an unusual winner and I will say he won't be the winner if I'm honest

Certainly doesn't have the profile of a normal winner, but I can't just dismiss the horse with the best form in the race and a course winner.

I like the fact he has the experience of the hustle and bustle of a big race at the festival to.

course an distance winner goes on all ground best form over here imo cant see it being out the frame and on at big prices, i want the irish to plunge on jezki and are be happy to lay, not sure he likes the hill at chelt as found nothing coming round the bend in bumper last year, i know horses improve with age but not for me

If he was good enough to win a supreme he'd have a bigger rating after all those starts. My tent or yours will destroy everything come the supreme.

even on soft ground brooksie

Melodic Rendezvous should have the beating of Dodging Bullets on a line through Court Minstrel. Melodic also has the benefit of a Cheltenham victory and that form was well franked by Mr Watson at the weekend. He looks very much on the upgrade and it was an above average Tolworth that he won when he once again showed his liking for a stiff uphill finish. I'm amazed he's not single figures

melodric is my other bet in race form is solid

Heavy I'd worry, but it will be G/S come the day as per usual.

Still 14's with ladcrooks but they now have gone 1/5th a place the weigh anchors

Looks like it will be a great race this year, some very good young novices coming through

Every time I look at all races, I still come back to DB! Just can't believe he is 14/1. Still the ap bet of the week for me.

He may be more exposed but he did not make his hurdling debut until 25th Feb last year. I don't particularly fancy him but the race is quite open, as always!

Regarding the trends angle I believe both Capt Ceebee and Menorah have bucked the trend in recent years. Capt Ceebee hadn't run in the calendar year and Menorah had finished 2nd last time out both usually big negatives from a trends viewpoint. I've warmed to this horse and at 14/1 is definitely good value in my book.

I'm surprised Nicholls doesn't have anything else for the race tbh.

chief dan
31 Jan 13 21:29
Joined:
03 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 819 | Blogger: chief dan's blog
course an distance winner goes on all ground best form over here imo cant see it being out the frame and on at big prices, i want the irish to plunge on jezki and are be happy to lay, not sure he likes the hill at chelt as found nothing coming round the bend in bumper last year, i know horses improve with age but not for me




horse has never run in a bumper pal...he did however run on the flat where he finished an improving 93 handicapper

hope this helps

eh?
Harry,
Jezki ran in the festival bumper mate,all getting to you?

apologies dan 3 nights on the drink affecting my eyesight...

budd

quiscover fontaine getting round in one piece and back in his box is affecting me budd lol

no worries harry im a fan of horses for courses, an wasnt impressed by the way he came up the hill at festival bumper m8 but like i said he could of improved from last year

actually agree with you dan...just read it wrong...my main concern with jezki is, he isn't going to prep don't like that myself.

its drinking week for me... takes away the pain of a heavy wager placed in the albert bartlett hurdle...think i'll just get back on the drink today...although the liver is feeling tender with the vodka that has pounded the poor organ

lol yea im going on a leo sayer in a bit great day of sport racing, 6 nations rugby, then united cant wait b rough tomoz though

alright Harry mate, feeling delicate? You still haven't let me know what you've backed in that Bartlet race, as you're on any chance?

I've dutched 2 or 3 in three quarters of the races today for decent money

am promised a dog for next Friday, the last two both won, direct from the trainer - will e-mail ya

will survive judo but a tad...well tricky as maybe topping up more as cannot find another race with such a good betting opportunity at the price at festival...not one for hyping although just put up a quiscover thread of whom am keen to hype to the max as is a life changer and want the trade although will take the pain and ride it if i cannot... opinionated nob at times

Id Like Champagne fever to come back for this, apparently there was a respiratory problem lto, we KNOW this one gets up the Hill!!

I probably wouldn't be getting on before the day of the race market Harry as I will be going in play so there's no danger I will nick ya price

Champagne Fever will be Neptune bound if he's right. PA will then go for the AB.

The only real star novice hurdler for me coming from Ireland will be Pont Alexandre.

Seriously convinced myself My Tent Or Yours is a very special horse, I haven't seen anything travel like him in a race before, just the way he powers past horses like there standing still. I genuinely think he'll be a champion hurdle horse next year.

I also think Taquin Du Seuil is a big price for the Neptune aswell he'll be at least half the price on the day stays ever so well but also has lots of pace.

Novice Hurdle Treble:

Supreme - My Tent Or Yours 10/1
Neptune - Taquin Du Seuil 10/1
Albert - Pont Alexandre  5/1

Im on Bullets @ 20/1 and My Tent Or Yours @ 14/1

A certain Don Cossack runs over 2 miles in Ireland tomorrow who's entered for this and the Neptune, 79/1 could look rather big soon.

Should be 79/1 to run in the Neptune,if he is impressive tomorrow over 2m,surely goes for the supreme,if he doesn't win,won't be travelling.

I sincerely hope he doesn't emerge as a Supreme candidate with all my shillings on Un Atout

PA neptune

Ballycasey  A bartlett

latest from trainer

he changes his mind a lot though that trainer budd

indeed he does mate

Sad day today, but I'd say the form of dodging bullets was about to be hugely heightened before the horrible fall

Melodic Rendezvous is my ante post bet for the Supreme. Other people have made the case for him already and not much to add. His form at Chelt against Mr Watson is standing up well, and the turn of foot he showed in the tolworth was exceptional.

As others have said, i can't believe he is not a single figure price for the Supreme.

have to say i don't believe this fellow will be fast enough to win a supreme would of thought he would of had a much better chance in the neptune just an opinion plus not sure what he beat at sandown...difficult horse to weigh up but respected all the same

Brooksielad 02 Feb 13 12:21 Joined: 05 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 1,120 | Blogger: Brooksielad's blog
Champagne Fever will be Neptune bound if he's right. PA will then go for the AB.

The only real star novice hurdler for me coming from Ireland will be Pont Alexandre.

I think Defy Logic could be okay too ... aeroplane

i hope MTOY can put a smile on JP,s face

agree re. Defy Logic. have to be so impressed with yesterdays performance. no entry for supreme though? neptune most likely do we think?

Terrible trainer imo, he'll do something to ruin the horse.

why is the trainer a poor one brooksielad?? done alright with what he has had down the years imo

Anyone snapping up the 400/1 on Eduard??

after watching that program, It did enough for me to avoid sending a horse to him, put it that way.