Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 290 comments are related to the topic:
Champion Hurdle Antepost

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 3 of 8  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 8 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 290
By:
gutfeeling
When: 22 Jan 13 01:11
I'm with STS on this and see Zarkander as the CH winner this year with his biggest danger by far being ROR,
Cannot have Grandouet at all and his fans just keep going back to his International win as form which entitles him to win this years Ch but the horse has no guts and is weak off the bridle,
The Fly is a machine but for me he'll do well to regain his crown,Sour grapes from Mullin's last year if he claimed after the event that the horse was never right as both his wins were amazing on the eye and his Irish CH win was described as "My first reaction is it might be his best ever performance.",Be surprised if such a good judge of a horse and a multiple champion trainer got him wrong on the day and with age against him he's got it all to do imo,
Can't believe the price for ROR myself and will be having bit's on him e/w from now until the day as can't see any reason why he can't at least frame,If Zarkander is within 3 of any of them jumping the last there's only one winner hence he's the one i've been punting all summer long.
GL all.
By:
booster
When: 22 Jan 13 06:28
A 9 year old who keeps beating the same slow horses on heavy ground in Ireland, was clearly regressing last season and looked like being given a race when Go Native loomed up first time out. There's only one way his form is going and he must be some of the worst value around against quicker, younger horses on hopefully better ground in March. There was no thought last March that he wasn't right, it was just too easy to say the leaders stole the race but the simple fact was he couldn't go with them from 3 out when Walsh asked him to. Watch the race, he hadn't got the speed and he couldn't stay with Rock On Ruby between the last 2. A good horse but not in the class of the great hurdlers.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Jan 13 06:43
Sts I agree with everything you say re Zarkandar and he is my only bet in the race so far. I do find it amusing that he is all of a sudden your jackpot horse when he is the 6th one you've backed Confused
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 07:46
CVLaugh

Calm down mate,saying things like he WILL win just sets you up for a fall,or should i say fool!!

He may well win,then again.......

Istabraq by the way would have won 4 but for foot and mouth,he never failed at the festival,5 wins on the trot at the festival he would have done.
Different class my friend.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 07:48
Booster i would not go that far,hes still a major force if hes at his best.
I do think thought that their are a few better horses than Peddlers Cross in this years race.
Got it all to do imo to regain the CH.
By:
tomdeane
When: 22 Jan 13 07:54
This adds next to nothing (in usefulness) to his discussion but I'd be backing Istabraq every time if he was lining up fit and well in his pomp in this year's renewal Love
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 07:57
11111311111113111 - HF

21111111111211111111F1F1PU - ISTABRAQ

Is that a better strike rate? or should we wait to see how HF does in his next8 races??

You may have realised who my favourite ever horse isLaugh
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 07:59
And dont want anyone coming on here and saying he was pulled up at the festivalAngry
Joke he lined up in that race.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 08:07
Roobuck, just means he is the one that i will have the most on, in % factors. I stake according to price, how much i fancy it at time of backing and i adjust accordingly as season goes on so that by the time the race comes up, i may well have backed 6 in the race, but them 6 i feel will be the only 6 i feel could win that race that day. Also my stakes are always each way so i have the added bonus of any place money too and them 6 are all backed miles under round of 100% in fact currently i am at 51% win book in the champ, can't be bothered to work out the place. By the time i am finished, i will have zarkandar returning me about 40-50%, plus any placed horses that finish 2nd or 3rd that i have backed also. It is a great position to be in sometimes and i always since i started doing this had a good week in March!


I would be very careful though i.e RoR as he is/was made 10/1 for a reason. Yes i have him on my side this year but to have him onside you must think that he was not right first time up this. What price was he before that outing when behind Grandouet and ZarkandarConfused I no he was much much shorter.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 08:22
HURRICANE FLY 11/2 Wink
DARLAN 9/2 Blush
RoR 10/1 Wink
BINOCULAR 25/1 Wink
CINDERS AND ASHES 20/1 Wink

Ok, have not added ZARKANDAR yet, but he is 7/1, intend adding him to my list in coming weeks Crazy
By:
stevo1
When: 22 Jan 13 09:41
You only got few more to back and the whole field will be covered! Hope you might actually win some money on race but not sure how?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:02
Yawn, stevo1, read my post again. I always do alright, make profit every year. Wink
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:08
Ok, i explain

As a bookie, if you lay level stakes 21 horses all at 20/1 in win market you are guaranteed a profit of £10, yesConfused Ok, now reverse that rule! As a backer, your backing selections at the right price staking careful using judgement and basic maths! By the time each race comes around, you have what you perceive to be the principles backed at a combined underround of less than 100%. Work out my % on the above prices. Have already admitted my Darlan bet is a bit of a mistake but i will get round it.

Also all my bets are each way, so there is the added bonus of collecting on any places too, if plundering the winner as long as a rag does not win that is. An average bookie wants a rag to win, i just reverse that rule basically! Of course a non runner takes a small chunk of my % out of my book which is another reason for the each way, added insurance come race day and with a non runner, whats going to replace it in the market if you have already worked out what has bestest chances of winning with a % point of view.
By:
liam the lips
When: 22 Jan 13 10:08
STS - when u say 'I stake according to price', would u care to elaborate, as this seems vague.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:11
Winner = profit
2 places only = small loss or levels
Winner + 1 place = even more profit
1 place = manageable loss there are other races in that week in March, this has happened, but generally only get about 2-3 in the whole week Wink
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:13
liam the lips

Well you just have more on the shorter prices, less on the bigger prices. So currently i have £20 each way on HF at 11/2, £11 each way on RoR at 10/1 and so on. Both return around about the same on the win. Hope this helps
By:
stevo1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:14
If Grandouet wins how much do you lose?Understand having savers covering stake on main bet,but backing 6 horses in 1 race not sure how much profit can be made but each to their own, and best of luck.
By:
liam the lips
When: 22 Jan 13 10:17
Ah, I thought that might have bin your approach - whilst I appreciate the advice, I wont be heeding it. For me the larger the price discrepancy, the larger my bet - hope this helps Love
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:23
Yes i understand alot of people like to take that approach. I prefer this approach, i use it on the big handicap races all year in 2012, and although i missed the winner in a few of them i am showing quite a healthy profit in all my accounts both online and cash bets in shop to which i keep a record of. I am small stakes punter, biggest bet around the £25 area so £50 outlays and have never been restricted though have took B£365 for about 6k and Bet - victor for similar amounts in the last 18 months!

stevo1 It all depends on the places don't it though tbh i have not as yet finished or finalized anything in this race or any race, it is still along way off yet!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:24
In fact every week i get texts from both of them accounts asking me to deposit and offers of free bets are plenty full!
By:
stevo1
When: 22 Jan 13 10:47
STS who is your idea of the winner just one horse,forgetting what you have backed already.
By:
CVByrne
When: 22 Jan 13 10:53
Bud I'm just saying g what I'm thinking. The fly we see this season would beat Overturn if they ran in last year's race again. I think Fly is a superstar of a horse and he'll go regain his crown. It's as simple as that. Nice full prep, ridden close to the pace this time and scoot up the hill.

I put my balls on the line 2 years ago and did before that on Kauto in 09. Sometimes is just simple. Fly is a cut above.
By:
alleged22
When: 22 Jan 13 10:54
why bother with each way when backing so many horses in 1 race, fwiw ive only backed 1 horse to win in this, but i might have a saver on another should the right price become available win only of course
By:
Graeme83
When: 22 Jan 13 10:57
Why would anyone put up 3 horses for a race, then say that Hurricane Fly will win because "it's as simple as that" ? I've never heard so much pish in all my life.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 22 Jan 13 11:07
I do think ROR is being underestimated. His performance last time could easily be due to the ground. Just need to get on b4 Tom tips him.
By:
stevo1
When: 22 Jan 13 11:08
Tom has tipped Cotton Mill ffs! Maybe STS should back it his 7th horse in race?
By:
onehundredandeighty
When: 22 Jan 13 11:18
Yeah Tom tipped cotton mill yet the 10/1 ROR has now gone...........bugger
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 11:27
Yep, added cotton mill at 33/1 this morning but only because i intend backing it in the betfair hdl, to go with my 12/1 MTOY Wink and at 33/1, should he win that race will be massive odds plus its such a large price it takes literally nothing out of the book! to go with my 12/1 MTOY Wink!

I dont really care what people on here say about me, slate me all use like i actually like it cos i will always have the last laugh when most of use have missed the winner and im in profit.

My idea of the winner this year at this stage is ZARKANDAR but then ive already said that he will become my jackpot horse for the race. In other words will take out the most should he win.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 22 Jan 13 11:35
I think we can punch holes in all of them.

HF only just won a weaker race when he was at his peak as a 7yo - and does the track even suit him?

Lots of rose tinted glasses on here when looking at past races. I don't think using form from 2 years ago is a good way of working out this years race.... HF was 'banker' material last year according to most. He will have at best plateaued in ability whilst others are improving. Still fave material though and has to be less than 4/1 because he is great eway material.

Zarks - we have had these old Triumph winner types in the past and they struggle. But according to Nicholls he was never right last year so is definately a possible. Still only run 11 times.

Darlan - (8 runs) I am pretty sure there is a stat out there that says you must have had so many runs to win a CH - and I am sure he is about 5 below that. He beat Raya Star 4l - so what? - I dont get it.

Grandouet lost to Zarks last time giving away 4 lbs.... he could improve again esp for the ground... lacks grade one sparkle (only had 3 grade 1 runs).
Cinders and Ashes has a poor run and poor Supreme winners stat to overcome (Darlan was beaten in that race).
RoR has done little wrong - I would say it is a negative being trained by Fry though. Solid eway chance on quicker ground.
Countywide Flame - has run 28 times so is tough - bad Triumph stat to overcome but he is not your typical triumph winner - eway chance.
By:
Graeme83
When: 22 Jan 13 11:38
I don't see anyone slating you STS. It's a bit silly though bigging up one horse when you have backed the whole field. It's what CVB excels in. If neither of you have a strong opinion like i don't, then there is no point in selling runners to other people. My original selection was C&A which i backed a while ago, but i have backed off him a bit without writing him off, and now i'll just let the race pan out. Good luck.
By:
cyclops
When: 22 Jan 13 11:43
Buddeliea, can you name one top class two mile hurdler that Istabraq ever beat?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Jan 13 11:55
I dont really think i am bigging up any one runner in any race tbf, i have a theory on each of them and a reason for why they are in my book. Its just sometimes i feel one of them has stronger credentials that the others and so i tend to have that one returning me more than any of the others, in other words jackpot material. But thanks for the comment.

I didn't think C&A had much of a chance before his run first time up this season and equally i didn't until after his 2nd run of this campaign weirdly enough. I think it all boils down to this, all prep runs this year are being run on boggy ground to which the form (should the festival be the usual good ground) is very very likely to take a few knocks. C&A needs good ground, and a fast pace, none of which he has had this year, ive already said this on here so i backed him after his 2nd run at 20/1 because i felt that this could well be the case with this fellow and he may surprise a few and actually place. There isnt another horse in the race with the same credentials as that, clutching at straws as to the well being of him maybe, maybe he really isnt that good, maybe i am right, at 20/1 take out, i dont mind finding out.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 22 Jan 13 12:04
Graeme83 22 Jan 13 10:57 Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 7,444 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
Why would anyone put up 3 horses for a race, then say that Hurricane Fly will win because "it's as simple as that" ? I've never heard so much pish in all my life.


It's a fair point that...
By:
booster
When: 22 Jan 13 12:18
Ming, Harry Fry trained Rock On Ruby in all but name last year. Just got a nagging doubt this year that he may not be as good as he was last year but think he is the one to beat.
By:
CVByrne
When: 22 Jan 13 12:19
ExcitedLaugh love this Graeme lad. Think he'll spend the next two months spamming me. Total ownage Cool
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Jan 13 12:20
Sorry sts but I think you are unfortunately deluding yourself.

You say that you are a small punter ( couldn't care less what you stake tbh ) and that £25 e/w would be your maximum bet. If Zark is going to be your biggest return then I would suggest that it need to be close to the same stake as you have placed on HF. And for Darlan to be any good to you you will need to have done the £25 e/w on that horse. On these three horses you have then invested £130. You may make a profit the only way of it being more than £100 is if you get all three places.

You then claim that by using this method you have accrued profits of £12K in the last 18 months? That's 120 races.

And with these profits you are not restricted? Doing 9/2, 11/2 chances e/w continually and you are not restricted.

It doesn't add up I'm afraid. Adding a seventh horse today courtesy of PW seems a little compulsive.

I'm not slating you but I sincerely wish you good luck Love
By:
CVByrne
When: 22 Jan 13 12:21
Bally it's an antepost thread. Fly isn't an antepost bet as was stated. Grandouet will be one who shortens between now and day of race. So if there is an antepost bet at this stage it is him.

Also as you should be able to see Binocular is a place bet, not a win bet.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 12:24
Cyclops,you do have a fair point asking that and not really is my answer.
He beat them all pretty easily most of his races,and i personally would not use that as a reason to knock Istabraq,he did what he had to do with not much fuss at all.
I remember French Holly p!ssing up in the sun alliance hurdle,and he was billed as the big hope to challenge Istabraq,and Istabraq p!ssed all over him,twice if i remember correctly.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Jan 13 12:26
Ming, Harry Fry trained Rock On Ruby in all but name last year. Just got a nagging doubt this year that he may not be as good as he was last year but think he is the one to beat.

If that's the case, why the completely different prep? Also why did he turn up fit as you like for his seasonal debut last season but apparently needing the race badly this season?
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 13 12:30
CV,im just having a bit of a laugh with yer mate.I know how much HF means to you.
Stil think saying hes gonna win simple as that is a bit silly though.
Theres confidence,and theres confidence mate,this race is tricky my friend.
Page 3 of 8  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 8 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com