Cheltenham Festival
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Zarkandar?
Zarkandar?
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For who fallen?
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Bud - can a horse really get outpaced and still win a CH ? Surely if they have been outpaced, then that would mean they have been beat, like Overturn last year. To me it might be simple. If you think he doesn't have the pace, then you should bet in running if possible, and if he isn't up front with the pace then don't back him. I don't really have a sure opinion either, so i'm with you there. I think Grandouet would be a good bet if it wasn't for his head carriage. It will be interesting to see how he runs next time. It's quite an unclear race from a betting proposition.
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For Zarkandar, as prep runs for the champion. I think he will go for one of the two before cheltenham. Entries don't take place for another couple of weeks
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No I actually disagree there Graeme. Zarkandar's problem could be that he gets outpaced as they initially inject more pace potentially at the top of the hill. I would concede that he has less tactical speed than others and so the jock will need to work harder to get him going as I also suspect he is a little lazy as well.
I see him being able to pull back up to 3 lengths from the final hurdle as he seems to absolutely devour the hill - any further back will be a problem. He could well be a bet in running but for different reasons. He is likely to get much bigger as the above happens, if it does, and that might be a time to play. Alternatively you could leave it to much later and play if within striking distance at the last. That's if, of course, you like the horse |
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I thought so fallen, was actually interested in where ROR might pitch up if at all as a prep. Think Zark will go Wincanton or straight to Cheltenham.
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I would imagine they would pick the other one that Zarkandar doesn't turn up in which would probably be the mountbattle. I thought that Henderson could be tempted to run Darlan in one of these races, they ran Zaynar a few years back. I would assume all the big guns will play cat and mouse dodgems between now and the big day in order to not over exert.
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I disagree Roob, although it's possible. This renewal looks quite a good one when all is considered. I can't really see any horse being outpaced, then swinging back into things and winning it. Last season he ran like that, and to win he really has to not do that. If he has improved physically and mentally, he can stay with them then use some pace going up the hill. He was still well beaten last year. The fact he finished well doesn't disguise the fact he was out of it when it mattered. It's like someone camouflaging themselves in with a tree, then appearing at the end of the cross country race when nobody is looking.
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well its been done in the Supreme,so i think it possible it could happen in the CH,as long as hes not outpaced by much which i dont think he would do.Its not ideal though i would admit.
Also its possible whoever rides him could actually race him prominently and try and dictate the pace as he did lto. |
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When he was outpaced in the International he didn't actually lose much ground if any - perhaps I see what you mean if that is what you are thinking. He did lose ground last year but I've already given my interpretation of last year's race.
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If he didn't lose any ground then he obviously wasn't outpaced, just took more stoking to keep with the pace which can be a trait of lazy horses.
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Zarkandar didn't travel as strongly for as long as Rock On Ruby or Grandouet in the International does not mean that he was outpaced imo
Yes he's not your flashy, sit and travel well on the pace type who looks good on the eye, but he's certainly not slow as a few of you seem to be alluding to. Hardy Eustace, and to a lesser extent Katchit iirc weren't the smoothest of travellers but it's fair to say they weren't slow. I think Zarkandar is in the same bracket as those two Zarkandar needs a bit of stoking up earlier than most but you know he'll find a load for pressure. Massive, massive chance |
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Fft it could be that I haven't explained my thinking very well especially as he is the only horse I have backed for the CH.
I know he isn't slow but he does perhaps lack the change of gear of others and on quicker ground than they faced in the International that may be important. As you say he will always find and as long as he sits handily off a decent pace at least, I think he will overcome this. |
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eastayrshire 06 Jan 13 21:01
I REALLY like Zarkandar, however imho the race would need to be run at a strong even relentless pace to see Zarkandar triumph, if there is one thing that Zarkandar has above almost all opponents is amazing battling qualities, just when the others are struggling for stamina Zarkandar just keeps going, it was mooted/touted that it would be better over further than 2m and tbh it certainly looks that way, BUT Nicholls has scotched that in the past, does that mean it is simply his best chance in CH or does he truly rate it as best over 2m?, Ruby has never been THAT enthusiastic about Zarkandar either, its a muddling picture esp as last year the stable was under a cloud with a virus just before Cheltenham, despite that Zarkandar won the Betfair hurdle in amazing style, since then Nicholls has said it wasnt 100%, it looked very slightly framed too last year, maybe some maturing has improved it even more. It looked superb when Grandouet came as if to beat it and it relentlessy out-battled Grandouet, I remember saying last year if it was close going up the hill it would win, same opinion this year. paceless yak imo |
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I've backed him as well, but he's only a bit of insurance for me if The Fly or Grandouet don't win. He's a horse I'd rather have on my side than against though.
If he was a serious CH horse he was entitled to win the International being race fit and receiving weight off his main rivals. Ruby picking Prospect Wells at Wincanton was a strange one imo. If Ruby really thought he was Champion Hurdle winning class, you'd still expect him to beat Prospect Wells, despite the huge weight allowance, yet Ruby still chose PW? You'd never imagine Ruby jumping off the Fly to ride Prospect Wells would you? |
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And yet despite everything being in favour of his mount and against Zarkandar an inferior jockey still beat him. Jockeys are there to ride the horse. That is what some of them are good at. They don't tend to make good tipsters.
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There is a very big difference between being outpaced in the first mile off a very strong pace when stamina often wins the race and getting outpaced down the hill off a moderate pace which is usually fatal. Af Ferof was in the former category imo.
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Eeternal, I'm not saying Ruby tipped Prospect Wells or anything like that. I'm simply saying that I don't think Ruby would even give it a moments thought whether to ride the Fly or Prospect, no matter how much weight was being given away.
I might be reading too much into it, but it says to me that if Ruby thought he had a better chance of winning on Prospect Wells, it raises questions in my mind as to whether Ruby thinks that Zarkandar is Champion Hurdle winning class. It had nothing to do with Jacob building a bond with Zark either, because Ruby said it was his choice on the day and Jacob would take the other. |
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He might not have wellchief but I think he had some grudging respect after the International. He had been quoted as saying he thought him too slow for CH
In exactly the same way with Kauto and BB, he'd never get of HF even in a handicap - loyalty as much as anything to the horse. I guess he had the chance to ride ROR last year as well |
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How many champion hurdles have been run at a frantic pace with horses getting outpaced only for the pace to collapse late on and the stronger stayers come from behind to go on by...not many, the horses on or near the pace and in any case those that can hold their position and can stay tend to prevail in this race ....travel at fast pace and stay well is what's needed, if they go hard earlier, zark will be outpaced earlier imo, they went slow last year before the 3rd last it was mentioned earlier, but even before then zark was being kept at it to hold his position I think.
I was wondering if the way he stayed on last year may have looked slightly more flattering than it was because the effort those few others made before they flattened out obviously accentuates his finishing run as they stopped, looking at brampour who was hard at it miles before zark but is the only other guage from back there who couldn't go with the others, was about 2.5 lengths behind zark turning in and was eventually beat just under 5 lengths so on the face of it would you be hoping to see a bigger gap between those two? don't know there to be honest, perhaps yes.  |
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He'll be able to go a solid pace from the outset and hold a position - the more the race is like this the better. The danger would be off a slower pace if he is not part of it.
@duffy you refer back to last year and I for one expect a considerable step up on that as explained earlier. If you believe he was 100% then clearly you will see it differently. |
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Quite often these Nicholls excuses remain unfounded. He couldn't have had a great deal wrong with him if he finished as well as he did. Was it some mysterious infection that effects horses from the 12-14f marker, then dissapears suddenly ? On the finish, probably everyone has failed to mention that he didn't have to jump the last, which made it easier for him to gain ground.
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Think he will get out paced but he always does, one things for sure he will be finishing best of all, he wins for me if he's within 8-10 lehgths turning in... But thats the big if will he be??
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I think they could change tactics and make the running try and steal a few lengths at the start, you know he will stay, so for me I'd ask questions and say catch me if you can cus I'm not stopping.
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robbo, So if he's in the same position as he was in last year turning in, he'll win
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It'll be the first time in absolute donkeys years that that has been done in this particular race.!
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Frankly as long as he wins don't care how he does it!
Been prominent last two runs and I think he'll want to ensure as much as possible a decent, and even pace so I don't see him too far back |
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Trip to spec savers for one of us duffy if he was within 8 lengths turning in last year.....
But yes last year the horse was bad with the cough going through the stable and as usual PN said he was on of the worse hit in the yard. Different horse this year.... |
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He may have been 12 lengths behind
 , anyways It'll be a monumental effort for him if what we see usually from him is the way of it again....incidentally I'm over 340 points in the TTF with him in as he was my International horse and thought with his advantage of race fitness would see him home....if I'm to get anywhere near the leaderboard I'm going to need him to win the bloody thing ....I've also got HF for that mind you. |
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As i said different horse this year, he came from a similar position in a good triumph the year before. He wont let your TTF down.
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I also have him in my TTF but also have Cinders and Ashes so need them 1-2.
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Best hope he aint 8-10 lengths behind ROR,Bino or HF,cos he wont be catching them that far behind.
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I think he'll be ridden far more prominently this year.
There, I said it. |
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Yeh,i think so too,and really he has to be a lot closer than last year to have any chance.
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IF he can get his nose in front coming to the last I can see him being dificult to pass.
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It's all very well being ridden more prominently but that depends totally on whether the horse can hold his position handy...which he doesn't advertise he can do....all these horses that get tapped for toe would all love to be ridden more handily,if they go a right good pace wherever he is in the field he will get outpaced IMO.
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Absolutely Duffy,thats why i cant make my mind up about him.
I dont think hes value right now,put it that way. I mean Even if they do try and race him more prominetly,he could get shuffled back when the pace quickens. That would not be good for his chances. |
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Neither ROR or Grandouet could do it in the International could they though and that was funereal - he'll also be better off a quicker pace.
Duffy continues to use last year's race as an example - that's fair enough if you think he was 100%, I don't. |
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Agree Roo
This is a totally different horse this year. Nicholls still needs a 'proper' CH winner not one from a Yard up the road too.... That comment should get some reaction!!! |
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roo
I'll use the international as an example, through the race,zark did not travel as well as the other two, fehily is sat on his horse, and it travels without him having to move his arms at all really, ruby is always just keeping zark at it, IMO if ror did not blow up he would have ran away from him turning in, zark had everything in his favour that day....and he needed to, IMO. As for last year, if I was promoting a sick horse I would kind of want the horse to have run an all out shocker because you can't have him coming home the way he did without the sick argument falling apart....he isn't that good is he, and that's before we even contemplate the fact he won perhaps the most competitive handicap of the whole year whilst sick |
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I don't believe for a minute that Zark is any better or any worse than last year, ROR clearly wasn't 100% the last day and Grandouet was coming back from injury. Both were giving Zark 4lb and once close enough you'd expect zark to out battle the two. Would you put a lot a money on him confirming form with Grandouet on level terms? And would you believe Grandouet would be good enough to win Champion hurdle? I'd have hendersons every day over nichols but I've backed Darlan. So onless there a match bet on day I won't be playing either. Shrewd punters observed Zark running on stoutly in last years renewal and commented that he was a future stayers hurdle winner. Thats my view and with Big Bucks out of picture Mr. Nicholas is making one big mistake. He simply not good enough to win a chapion.
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