Dodging Bullets

Nicholls said after Christmas Hurdle run he would be going for Supreme

backe 3 horses for cheltenham so far. dodging bullets is one, sir des champs is another and dynaste at 16s is the last one

Thanks, interesting.

I spotted this back in the summer and thought I was being clever jumping onto the 20s.
Now it's won both novice races this season and ran an excellent third against seniors in the Christmas Hurdle, yet you can still get 16s.
I feel like there is something I am missing and everyone knows it has no chance except me....

Everyone's assuming something better will come along gravy. Little do they know that nothing in the novice division would get that close to the likes of Darlan and C.Flame. Bet of the Festival so far IMO.

I agree Glossy. Huge price. Finished close to Grumrti last season and has improved. Fair enough, a youngster might beat him, but I can't kick him out if the frame

He's a biblical winner in my book. Backed him after he lost at aintree last season meaning he'd still be a novice. Jezki looks a superb horse but DB won't be out of the frame come the day. Will be 2nd or 3rd fav.

Wheres the 16s please,top price 14s on oddschecker?

Was 16's has since been cut to 14s after Kempton run.

Ok cheers CV,14s is still very very attractive though

Very, it's a great ew price as he will certainly make the frame. He needs a fast run race so to come 3rd in that joke pace at Kempton was a great run.

Does it not put anyone off that he has already had 3 runs this campaign?

he's hardly a 'certainty' though CV

He'll go straight to the festival now a fresh horse. He needs a fast run race and he got neither on his last 2 starts.

I said he will 'certainly make the frame' Howdi, think you've misread.

cv where did you read he would go straight to the festival??

thanks

After he won at Cheltenham, Nicholls said he wants a fast run race and they'll prob go for Christmas Hurdle next then be put away till Cheltenham.

ah fair play... not sure that would be a good thing quite a free running type...best to get a run into him wouldn't you think?

think he will go to the dovecote but we will see...I would certainly like to see them prep it just to take the freshness off him

got stuck out wide in the triumph and took quite a hold...anyway all about opinions but that is what i'd like to see happen with the horse

I'd run him again, but Nicholla knows what he's doing imo.

He was of course running free in the Christmas Hurdle, I could have walked faster than they went in that.

Supreme the go like the clappers and it's exactly what he wants. Helps him settle like he did in Supreme.

*Like he did in Triumph, not Supreme

Aye have took some 14s off baldys for supreme, heres hoping for a good run and a nice bit of value come race day

Already have JEZKI 8/1 MY TENT OR YOURS 10/1 + 20/1, and PUFFIN BILLY @ 6/1 (to win any race at the festival with billy's)

Waiting to see what race Puffin will go to before having a place only bet on him on here. Hopefully the price will be right as all my antepost are always each way.

By: This user is online. CVByrne Date Joined: 14 Mar 06
Add contact | Send message When: 30 Dec 12 15:35 Joined: Date Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 3,275 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
He'll go straight to the festival now a fresh horse. He needs a fast run race and he got neither on his last 2 starts.

I said he will 'certainly make the frame' Howdi, think you've misread.
Rate reply: 
0 (0 Ratings) The report button allows you to report a post, comment, reply or another user's behaviour. | report block user

Im none the wiser....

Howdi you quoted me as if I called him a 'certainty' I did not and as such corrected you.

I'm starting to come round to Dodging Bullets, he does seem overpriced to me. Already got Puffin Billy onside but his run against the big boys seems good form for a novice and Nicholls record in the Supreme isn't too bad. Would be a little concerned if they didn't have another run as I think only Capt Ceebee has got away without a run in the same calendar year in this race in recent years

I'm the same resner. Wasnt really a fan, but the more I look at the race, the more he stands out to me. Have add him at 14's each way.

I put this fella up at the start of the season at 20's ew.

I do think he should be shorter than he currently is based on his runs this year, but imo I wouldn't be surprised if he ran into one or two too good - just a gut feeling.

Also, I'm not a stats man at all, but no winner of the Sharp Novices Hurdle has gone on to win the Supreme for well over 10 years (Steps to Freedom, Cue Card, Loosen My Load, Golan Way, I'msingingtheblues, Moon Over Miami etc etc).

I realise that Countrywide Star and Ciders ran below form at Kempton, but Dodging bullets did beat the winners of the Supreme and the Triumph from last year in a race not run to his strength.

Couldn't av DB on my mind for the supreme, he will be lucky to get a sight of Jezkis' ass, let alone sniff it

interesting...very fit horse jezki after 5 starts already this season...lets hope this fellow hasn't peeked to early liam for your sake anyway.

Has Jezki met a horse that represents last years form on good ground yet?

Decided to take Victors 12s nrns. Cracking bet. Has plenty of jumping experience now, run at last years festival when an excellent 4th to Countrywide Flame on only his 2nd go over hurdles in the Triumph. This year he has now finished in front of last years Triumph winner and the Supreme winner when a very creditible 3rd in the top quality Xmas Hurdle. Big chance imho

Don't get why River Maigue is shorter in betting. DB gave him 7lbs and a 2l beating. Can't see why that will be reversed.

connections have been bullish about River and he hadnt had the benefit of a run when he met DB

Interesting to see Timeform have put Court Minstrel up for the Tolworth and the Supreme

What's very interesting is how Nichollshas twice said he wants a strong gallop and the only time he got that he ran a great race in Triumph on only his 2nd start.

would not have either in the supreme,but i do feel that in time River will be the better of the two,probably next season will be one to watch out for.He looks to me capable of a lot more imrovement than DB is.

budd why can't you have dodging bullets you never said why???

I think what weve seen of him is as good as he is Harry,and ive been more impressed visually with Puffin Billy and Jezki,and i would not be at all surprised if River improved past him this season.
Yeh,i may be wrong but i wont be backing him.I have PB and will definitely have Jezki on side,that would do me.

Puffin Billy's form is nowhere near as strong as DB. Your backing "potential" against form in the book.

will have to disagree on this one budd...how have we seen the best of him ran a blinder in open company on ground he didn't like...gave weight and a beating to older horses at cheltenham when he had to make his own running...will love better ground and is a mere 5 year old...he may not have to improve that much to take this imo

I may get ridiculed but am not sure how good the irish novices are excluding the mud lark pont alexandre. I must be the only one that is not that keen on the jezki horse although I think ned buntline can become a real good horse given time...

puffin billy looks very likely to go to the other race i'd say but we will see just don't know with him without knowing his target...will talk about him when we know he is a runner

very difficult to assess these novices who have been running on bottomless ground so far this season

thats why i said visually,i'm aware of the form.
Potential applies to novices that are improving,i dont feel DB has much improvement compared to some of the others.

I did say i may be wrong!!

no worries Harry,we have to disagree on here,otherwise we would have nobody to back with!!

Dodging Bullets will be a huge surprise to many. He desperatly needs a fast pace, Nicholls has said it twice that's why he wanted to run him in Christmas Hurdle, a Grade 1 open company race. Unfortunately it was a farce pace. He was pulling hard very very hard as they were going no pace. Yet he still got 3rd. Impressive.

Watch last years Triumph. His 2nd ever start and the only time he's had a proper gallop.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgwxx5Mz96w

Now with plenty of hurdling experience and the huge advantage of Cheltenham festival experience too. He looks a great bet. Ruby on his back too. All good.

one quick question budd how much do you feel dodging bullets has to improve in lbs?? to win a supreme and this looks an average one so far...to me not a lot and better ground will sort that

hard to say Harry,he may be good enough now mate,it just depends weather my thoughts on Jezki and PB and to a lesser extent River M  are accurate or not.If they are they are different class,if not ive lost.

By the way,i dont rate the xmas hurdle at all.
None of them imo will be anywhere near winning at the festival.

one other thing which I said on the supreme thread a couple of months ago any horse that can run in lane 8 with the choke out and still hold every chance on a far more demanding track in the triumph on his second start has to be a good horse

the supreme is run on a less demanding track and the triumph was seriously hot triumph for me...

anyway am pizzing on but will continue to take the 14's as feel he is tremendous value in a race I believe he is the best horse, my only worry has always been his temperament but he is growing up all the time and is hoped he is man for the job come march

Better ground??

oops,said i would not get into all that again

Interesting but out of DB's race at Cheltenham, I'd prefer Court Minstrel especially at the respective prices. Showed neat acceleration around the final turn and great resolution after being baulked on only his 2nd hurdle run

His current rating of 156 is 8lbs higher than anything in last year's Supreme (Darlan and Steps were 148 going into that).

Nicholls has mentioned several times that chasing is this fellas long term game - will probably be one of his top guns for the Arkle

yep,hes another i think could well improve past him,and actually at the prices hes worth a dabble i think.
Running Sat at Sandown i believe.

Sorry Harry can't agree with the hot triumph comment. The race was pretty terrible, massive bunch coming to the last.

I'm thinking about it too but find the Saturday entry off putting - thoughts?

well if he wins his price goes,so need to back him if you think hes running a big race.
Dont really like the Tolworth as a supreme trial,without looking i cannot tyhink of many winners that have gone on to the Supreme and ran big races,normally won by staying types aint it?
Silverburn won it one year

I also think that Court Minstrel came out of the Cheltenham race in November at least as good as anything else. He was held up of a slow pace & also meet trouble on the run in. The 33s with the VC Bet concession, looks more than fair compared to the prices of River Maigue & Dodging Bullets.  I suspect he would be alot shorter if trained by Nicholls or Henderson.

Defo not in last 10 years anyway.

That's my point budd, if he wins do they not point him at Neptune?

The books have him shorter for the Neptune, but one here its the other way round. Personally think the Supreme would suit him better

What a disparity between the likes of DB and court minstrel, court minstrel is a right powerful traveller through his races and before turning in was still tugging, in a supreme I reckon the pace will suit him right down to the ground, the worry is moloney not presenting him at his hurdles too good, at the last at cheltenham, he pretty much sat still on him and the horse took a right whack from his left and lost lengths and momentum, he finished very strong up the hill though....a strong traveller like him him in the supreme is a big plus and I suppose 33's takes the moloney factor into account.

well hes one of a few that could end up in either race,may use the VC offer and back him in supreme at 33/1.
fair chance he may not run on Sat,and the meetings in a bit of doubt as well.

He's a strong traveller and pulls, you couldn't risk him over the extra distance where he would bump into tough old stayers...he'd run out of petrol....he's pacey.

I started following racing round 2006 and in the the 8 Festivals since I've never backed the winner of the Supreme. The closest I came was with Granit Jack. However I do love this race and the build up to it. It's probably helped somewhat by the Irish banker traditionally splitting opinion (Sweet Wake, Cousin Vinny, Dunguib). Not sure if Jezki fits that bill this season?

Anyway, I really like Dodging Bullets for this race. I suppose you can understand some people's points of view that he might be short of top class (good horses shouldn't be novices for two consecutive seasons). But in fairness to this one, he ran two races full of promise last season and then one which can be wrote-off on account of him being badly hampered. Based on trainer comments and his Triumph hurdle run, I think he's going to be happiest in a big field off a fast pace. He should get that at Cheltenham. I like him.

I would acknowledge though that all Supreme contenders haven't emerged until maybe the start of March (Ebaziyan, Binocular, Trifolium, Go Native, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre are just a few that I can remember not arriving into the Supreme picture until sometime in January or February).

Braze Inca

I think sausalito bay was the last one i backed that won

^^^ was thinking about him today never won again assume he is retired

Cinders and Ashes was the last one i backed, in fact thinking about it, ive backed the winners of the last 3 renewals Al Ferof, Menorah included

So far, Jezki 8/1, MTOY 10/1 + 20/1 and DB 14/1 are in my portfolio

HOWEVER

SoYouThink
04 Jan 13 20:29
Joined:
14 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 422 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog

I started following racing round 2006 and in the the 8 Festivals since I've never backed the winner of the Supreme.

Oh and not forgetting puffin billy to win any race at the festival at 6/1

Cinders and Ashes  was the last one i backed, in fact thinking about it, ive backed the winners of the last 3 renewals Al Ferof, Menorah included

WAC

What does WAC mean roobuck

I'll leave it to others to tell you - suffice it to say its not complimentary.

Out of order to come on trying to show how clever you think you are in comparison with others - even repeating their post.

You've already backed 4 this year and most likely have backed at least 10 by the time of the race. Getting a winner out of 10 darts isn't that brilliant.

STSN1
can see you ending up on the aftertimers thread,with
that post!

WAC - guessing its what a c***

Oh sugar, yes, i see now, i forgot, or rather got complacent as to the reason why i stopped posting on here for as long as i did in the past and just read. In that no one can understand and congratulate someone elses good fortune without ridicule or jealousy! I wont say anymore on the matter, apart from this, i was not being out of order at all it was a mere good humored post in that i probably will miss this years winner as i maybe thinking along the same lines as the above poster when selecting my selections! Nothing at all wrong with that. Oh just one more thing, so fecking what if i want to back 10 horses in a race at the festival with a combined under round of less than 100% each way? Ever since i started staking in the manner, the week of the festival has always been a very profitable one! Maybe others should follow in these footsteps perhaps instead of trying to back one horse per race and then coming on with jealous remarks such as the aftertiming cr@p

Oxygen required Duffy as i had a monster bet on a horse called Best Mate in Sausalitos race.
Thought i was on an absolute gift then that bugger did me.Needless to say i never followed my horse up again........................ffs but turned out to be a gudun

Fcking County Hurdle. Can never even got close to winning that fcking race. I'll probably never back the winner of it. Only ever had 1 winner of Triumph, Albert Bartlett, Pertempts & Plate. So not big fans of those races. Never had the Grand Annual winner either actually. Some races you just have bad luck in isn't it.

Anyway Supreme is a race not to lose your balls on, just be sure to come out of it with no scars. It's the first race after all, no piling into a Dunguib or Cue Card fav type

Denman is my only RSA winner. Jaysus just realised that. What a shocking record that is.

Aye got a bad record myself in dem handicaps, can never get them right, backed winner of them i think only when theres been a massive gamble on summink, just had a small wager on it, (cos its the festival after all) after missing the big prices lol. Of the championship races, my least fav' has to be the RSA, shocker in that, don't think ive ever had the winner in fact, ive just looked on wikipaedia, and i had bobs last year but only one ever! Though admitedly, just like my mate, i do like to lay the shorties in them kind of races on here with a bad record for short priced fav's. The RSA and supreme both fit that bill of fav's at sp sub 2/1 that lose

Hoping for a big Court Minstrel run today on ground I imagine he will hate

just watched last years triumph hurdle and was very impressed with the way he travelled and jumped in the race just got to the front to soon imo but ran ok to line,this year the horse has had to make the running in small fields on bad ground which obv hasnt suited cause he travelled like the winner for long way in the triumph just off the pace,they always go a good gallop in this race and at 14s is a great e/w bet compared to jezki at 4s if u got alot bigger fair play to u but no value in him now and if u havent watched last years bumper watch it again wasnt very keen on the hill after the bend didnt find much but hey horses improve with age and has looked good this year but at the prices dodging bullets is a big price with the best form on offer, course an distance what more do u want