*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*

There's a couple of henderson horses in there, that should be enough to frighten him off for another fortnight at least

well the doncaster race is 2m 3f,so i have taken odds on here for the jewson,just in case a change of mind is on the cards.
will certainly stay ok,given his flat and hurdling form.

Might be a good move budd but assuming no pre Cheltenham mishaps for Simonsig and that he lines up on the day for the Arkle, I can see the Jewson being a very competitive heat.

Agree ff. Have backed CC for the Arkle and whilst its most likely he'll now go for the Jewson, wouldn't want him in that race yet. Put simply if they point Dynaste that way, he'll beat everything.

Donny 19F is nowhere near Cheltenham 21F - it would be a definite swerve of the favourite if they did that.

Dynaste is a good horse ok,but hes no certainty to beat a likely Jewson field imo.

Yeh,i think it wise to have a cover bet for the Jewson.
I really liked the way Overturn jumped Sandown and hes the sort that could get all sorts in trouble behind him in any race if he jumps like that.Basically i want him on my side.
He stayed over 2m on the flat and 2 and a half over hurdles so i have no qualms about the distance.
Its not easy trying to 2nd guess trainers,and at around 70 on here its worth a go.
He wont be 70 if he turns up in the Jewson.

Of course he's not budd. But unless anything was a silly price I wouldn't back against him. Obviously Dynaste could very well go for RSA anyway.

Jewson is not an AP race for me at this stage.

Confirmed for tomorrow - looks like it should be a nice schooling session

Will be good to see him back on the track. Donny is a very fair test but having jumped round Sandown well, I can't imagine he will encounter any problems with the fences here.

Bookies will still probably clip him in a point or two tomorrow, even if it is a schooling session.

Might back him now before his price contracts.

Decent enough I thought. Took the 7's available before the off for the Arkle. Don't get me wrong, Simonsig could be anything but based on their hurling records I think 7/1 definitely represented some value about the McCain horse.

I like ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE more then Overturn am I the only one?

If you have not bet in this race already you should be better in the w/o market when it opens imo. Hard to see anything beating Simonsig bar an accident. The others just dont have the latent ability comparatively. We're all fighting for scraps.

The same bookies that are currently cutting the price of Overturn are also cutting Simonsig. They should be ashamed of themselves.

baNjackst I was going to say the same thing, surely it can't be justified!

I thought he jumped OK. No improvement on Sandown and he was probably a bit ring rusty early. Would like to see the time of the race compared with other chases this afternoon. Bare interpretation of the form leaves this performance some way behind Simonsig's demoltion of Hinterland at Kempton - won 25 lengths at level weights against a 142 rated chaser, whilst Simonsig gave a 148 rated horse 11lbs and beat him 35 lengths, either just as easily, or more easily.

Personally think Oscars Well is worth trading on, he will imo reverse the form with AL in a few weeks by a better judged ride. His price will then contract for the Arkle with a great trade to cover your stake just incase jessie decides to miss Cheltenham.

i would have loved to have seen Simonsig run against Overturn today. he would have blown him out of the water! just saying!

11.5 seconds quicker than the handicap chase over the same distance won by a horse rated 113 carrying the same weight.

Well pleased with that,jumped fine,at times clever at times very impressive.Loads left in the tank.
Really Looking forward to the Arkle,if they all get there should be a treat.Anyone who thinks this one will be walked over best think again.

Sint,you listening??

Personally think Oscars Well is worth trading on, he will imo reverse the form with AL in a few weeks by a better judged ride. His price will then contract for the Arkle with a great trade to cover your stake just incase jessie decides to miss Cheltenham.


Harrington has said he will go for the Dr PJ Moriarty hasn't she and then either the Jewson or Powers Gold Cup

It's what she first said but I think it's well worth having another go at AL, OW closed a considerable gap last time and was always going to struggle to go past AL in that ground. If they get better ground and stay handy think he'd have the beating of AL.

I'd fancy Oscar Wells to reverse form with Arvika Legionairre in the Arkle too if both where to run, especially if AL jumps everything out to the right as he did the last day at Leopardstown

Agreed Bud, pleased with that. I'm on Overturn at decent prices, not sure he'll be quite good enough to trouble Simonsig..happy in the knowledge that the horse will try its heart out though. Run for your money for sure.

Overturn is a fine horse but if he turns up in this race Simonsig will take all the beating, about the only horse ive seen who 'could' get SS off the bridle.

Why do you think Simon is so much better than Overturn?

Jumps and travels like a proper horse, overturn reminds me too much of peddlers cross, similar profile (although did win flat races). Only time he got beat travelled like the best horse but got done by a race fit rival.

I think Overturn has proved countless times hes a proper horse!!
He jumps and travels well also.
Only March will tell us whose better.

very true

Reckon it will be a cracker Robbo,certainly hope so!!

I don't think there's a lot between them strictly on chase form. I suspect there is a lot of difference between them in terms of potential.

buddeliea
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09 Jan 13 19:14
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Why do you think Simon is so much better than Overturn?

^ this - Overturn was fine today - 2m 3f on sticky ground, jumped adequately/flawlessly if not spectacularly - Simonsig (frankly) priced up on visual impression, potential and comparisons to his stable mate, - Overturn 2nd in Champion Hurdle, enough flat speed to win the Chester Cup and Goodwood Cup and we know he can jump - yet Overturn is seven times the price of Simonsig.

Now, Simonsig may well prove to be the second coming of Pegasus - or Sprinter Sacre and I would not be surprised if he blows them away in the Arkle but the value is with Overturn surely.

festivalfanatic
09 Jan 13 19:50
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I don't think there's a lot between them strictly on chase form. I suspect there is a lot of difference between them in terms of potential.

that's a reasonable opinion and there are sometimes grounds for backing a horse on the basis of what it might achieve but not at evens/odds on for a race over fences two months away where they'll go like the clappers in the opposite direction to his two chase victories so far which were over a grand total of eight opponents.

Paddy Power went evens Sprinter Sacre on the morning of the Arkle last year.

Agree entirely RH though his demolition of Hinterland at Kempton in a relatively fast time is very strong novice chase form and at least as good as anything Overturn has achieved over fences.

They have to get there fit and well, which in itself can be a challenge. I wouldn't back Simonsig at evens but I wouldn't want to be laying him either as he looks the likeliest winner of the race to me.

Reckon the thing to do is enjoy the build up and the excitement created by the prospect of these 2 jumping away in the Arkle.
Yeh,i'm on Overturn,but i recognise Simonsig as possibly a superstar in the making.
Whatver the result may be in the end,i really think potentially we have a classic race to look forward to,and should post accordingly.
Certainly nothing to be gained in crabbing either horse imo.

Simonsig is definitely the most likely winner but this is reflected in the price.  Overturn can be backed at seven times the price, is one of the toughest horses in training and was placed in last years Champion Hurdle.

This year's race looks similar to last year's race and looks like it may cut up badly.  Would you rather back Simonsig to win at Evens or Overturn to be placed at 7/4?  This assumes there is enough liquidity to lay the win part on here.

Aint read the comments above from today but here is my take on the Arkle from now.

Simonsig at evs is stand out and have started to really back him big time. He will make or break my festival! (I no that thread i started seems such a long time ago now haha ) I also think he could so easily start 3s on with no more than 5 or 6 runners tbh! So am also going to take top price about Overturn e/way with 3 places tomorrow morning!

These two are going to make up my bets for this race, right up until the time comes where i either bookies realize there will be not many runners and change place terms or one is no longer going to run !

Dont foret sea,simonsig just might run in what looks a poor RSA this horse was winnng over 2m5 last year as a novice hurdler.I think hes a star and totally agree with the view he could well go off 3s on but only if he runs!!!.Im being told on another thread 7/4 a place on a horse with one festival tatget is bad value and im only backing that to place!!!!! Evens is not great value on any horse 9 weeks before the race to say it will make or break your festival...But i hope you get a result with this star horse.

robbo

Where is the quote from connections that he might run in the RSA? There was enough fuss on here last year when they decided to go for the Neptune rather than the Supreme. The only other potential target I heard mentioned before he started his chase career was the Champion Hurdle.

Not a quote from connections but he's in the betting for the race so therefore must still be entered??

If he runs in RSA,i will eat my hat and everyone elses!!

robbo the only race at Cheltenhma with any entries at this stage is the Gold Cup - bookies put up prices to help offset ay liabilities on other races and its free money for them. Simonsig might get a Jewson entry but actually think the only entry he'll get will be the Arkle one

I'll help you with the hats budd

cheers mate,but i think we are safe.

On first impressions as the race was unfolding yesterday was one of slight disappointment, he was getting in close to a few and wasn't really that fluent, but toward the end he was asked to meet a couple on a good stride and really nailed them. Watching it again though and mccain half eluded to it, it was over the extra distance and early on he didn't go mad on him on sticky ground just erring on the side of caution....he is a horse that unless he's being allowed to stride on at a really good clip isn't going to look as impressive, when he is allowed to kick on he can see a stride and really attack his fences, toward the end we saw that again, so everything is on track.

I think simonsig should be fav. but the disparity between them is too big, overturn will have to really go fast and gain ground at his fences to force simonsig into a couple of those errors he made over hurdles.

Roo

Dont think your right about the entries bit but hey, if you read my post im saying i wouldnt want evens making or breaking my festival 9 weeks before time. If sea is on at better prices im with him all the way as i think Simonsig is a cert!!!

robbo - http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/big_races.sd

Don't take any notice of the unofficial ones -there's no way there will be as few entries as that. The Gold Cup was like that a few days ago with 19 runners I think and ended up with 40. You cannot have additional entries to initial ones unless there's a premium entry

I stand corrected.

No worries and I completely agree with regards the sentiments of your original post

Lads, you should all know me by now. I am a small stakes punter, in fact, i am at the moment taking sly bet up on their offer of a fiver a week and having it right off on this one placing doubles with the free fiver on horses running that day with simonsig at 10/11!

The first bet i will be placing on this race (Arkle) will be an each way punt on Overturn at hopefully laddies offer of 7/1. Although they are 1/5th the odds, i do see this race with only 5 or 6 runners max and therefore simonsig being a 3s on poke on the day.

These will be my only 2 bets on the race, if simonsig wins it gives me a decent amount of ammo to go to war with during this great week in March, free dosh courtesy of sly bet as well as a couple maybe £20-25 win bets at evs before his price starts to tumble. This is a massive bet for me, looking at poss £12-50 - £20 each way Overturn at 7s with 3 places.

I am that confident this race will be small field!

How will simonsig be 3's on? provided overturns presence alone will stop that let alone anything else!

If Simonsig runs in the RSA, I'll show my arse, so from everyone's point of view, you'd best hope he runs in the Arkle!!

Arkle for me is a two horse race for me now.  As far as I'm concern AL can turn up, or he can't, but there is no way he'll have the speed to go with these two.  He'll stay on powerfully up the hill, but he'll be well too far back by then.

I don't normally make strong judgements about a race this far in advance, but I've tried really hard to look for something other than the big two, and they're simply not there.

heard simonsig might run in the 4 miler, is this true?

No brooksie, but he'll just run the Arkle circuit twice before the others finish

3's on??
Maybe if Overturn and AL dont run. otherwise,nowhere near.

duffy
10 Jan 13 16:51
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How will simonsig be 3's on? provided overturns presence alone will stop that let alone anything else!

yep, that and the fact it's second race on Day One and bookies will be touting for business.

Sprinter Sacre SP was 8/11 last year and in the morning on the day of the race he was available at evens with Paddy Power.That was a 6 runner race.

It's not inconceivable that Simonsig price on the day will be very similar to the price now - a far more likely scenario than him being 3s on (unless the race falls apart completely of course and it's a match with Oscars Well or something).

That's right, the fact that there may be umpteen horses being priced up at the moment, for all intents and purposes there are only a half dozen that are really in the market, much the same as it will be on the day, so the current prices are a pretty good reflection of what we'll see.

I'm with you Polly, can't wait to see Overturn blast off in front and make Simonsig do an Al Ferof and bank one.

Can't see me having a bet in the race but Overturn looked anything but a natural over fences to me while Simonsig appears just the opposite. Don't want to take the odds on but there'll be other opportunities to take on favourites and I'd swerve this one.

Must have watched a different horse to me then!!

Taken to fences very well imo,and it wont be his jumping that will get him beat.
Simonsig being a better horse would.

I think Overturn loves fences seems to be enjoying himself to me,Simonsig leaves his back legs in the fence like Long Run but he is class,my money is already down on Overturn and I am happy with what I have seen.

Or may have interpreted what I saw in my own way, which is what the game is all about.

Fair enough,like to know what was not natural to you though.

Fair enough,like to know what was not natural to you though.

When he had company early in the race he didn't seem comfortable but admittedly got better in the straight when he'd shrugged off his rival as you'd expect. To be honest he's been almost a top class flat stayer, almost a top class hurdler and could be very good over fences but most don't make it in all 3 and he is flat bred. I guess you could say he was a top class hurdler, second in a Champion and would possibly have beaten Oscar Whisky in receipt of about 8lbs at Ascot.

Well for me the main thing is he can jump a fence and has the speed needed for the Arkle.
His flat and hurdle form is there for all to see,and hes a horse we all know very well.

Simonsig could literally be anything,may prove to be different class.

At this stage i'm more than happy to take the short priced fav on,with what i consider a horse thats overpriced in comparism,and from what ive seen of both,i think its a close call between them.

Think he is very top class, Booster his form stacks up pretty well me thinks, second in a CH makes him that. Unbeaten in 2 crappy jump races sill has a bit to prove in that game but he is no doubt going to prove just as good. He wont beat Simonsig though

I think you mean may not beat,Robbo

Ok may not, but anything within 5 lengths of Simonsig is a top class horse, not many have been so far!!!!

I certainly do not want to go down the road of knocking Simonsig,theres nothing to knock anyway.
Everything hes done so far, except Sandown,has been very impressive.
I will say though that in the Arkle he will be facing a much better horse than hes faced thus far.

This all has deja vu about it. Delete 'leaves his back legs in the fence', insert 'won't get up the hill'. Remind you of anything?

I favour Simonsig because he is a younger horse who has raced under rules only 8 times and should have a lot more scope for improvement than Overturn. Scope doesn't win the race though and I was a lot more confident that the monster would win last year's Arkle simply because of his fencing, which was/is in a league apart.

Simonsig is a very good horse and if you are on at a nice price good luck to you,the odds now 4/5 to 6/1 overturn, I think he will give him a race and if I was you festive I would have a saver because overturn really seems to be enjoying himself.

This is the fun of the festival different opinions,lets just make the bookies pay.

Maybe its time to put this one to bed odds on is a bad price any horse 8 weeks ahead of time. It will only shortern now if overturn doesnt run which make this whole thread meaningless as it state overturn 'arkle'

No chance Simonsig will be 3's on, the Supreme is very open this year so the Arkle will be the first chance for the bookies to get stuck into a short priced favourite

No? Not even if there is only 3 runners with any hope of winning This race may well have 6 or more runners just due to the fact prize money is down to 6th, but can't see no more than 3 with a winning chance and with simonsig currently trading at evs, can't have him being bigger than 4/6 in the lead up when all books go nrnb! 3s on is very likely to happen in my opinion but each to their own!

My tissue probably

simonsig 2/5
overturn 9/2 or 4/1
Arvika (may not run but if something else does of similar ability, your captain conans or oscars well) 11/2 - 13/2

33/1 bar

with 7 or less runners

Just to be clear, if the race had only simonsig and overturn full stop, 2 horse race....simonsig would still not be 1/3...as it stands right now.

the race is almost a 2 horse race already and he is evens, AL and OW are not the difference between evens and 1/3.

Some people just can't be convinced can they till the day and they see it for themselves. The only reason simonsig is evs now and overturn is 5s, is cos the books still expect there to be more than 8 runners, therefore they are offering 3 places still. Some at 1/5 some at 1/4 but thats besides the point. And why shouldn't they? After all, the race conditions as a grade 1 pays down to 6th place! Finishing 6th pays more than winning a poxy novice/handicap chase round some rainy Monday afternoon track in their own grades. Your right, it is a 2 horse race, but this is the only reason why Simonsigs price is still as big and if more than 8 runners, will remain inflated but i cannot see there being 8 or more runners, therefore his price will tumble as they will then be able to offer 5s overturn quite easily with there only being 2 places on the day of race market.
And if Overturn is 5s, what price does that make Simonsig in a 2 horse race, paying only 2 places

If it's a 2 horse race, just gross up the proportion of the book that the 2 horses account for now, soSimonsig now is Evs or 50% and Overturn is 5/1 or 17%, combined 67%.

In a 2 horse race each account for 1.5 x their current book proportion,ie Simonsig would be 75% or 1/3 and Overturn would be 25% or 3/1, so (without fiddling the numbers) it comes out at bang on the suggested price of 1/3.

Musselborough this weekend for Overturn

Wonder if they will ask a bit more from Overturn today,think they may have been holding him back a bit so far.
All about March of course,but we could well see a bit more of what i feel hes capable of.

Course should suit him well as a front runner - very sharp.

I think Tetlami might make a few Overturn backers a bit nervous

Really?

Looks in a different league from what ive seen of them both thus far.
If Overturn performs as he has been,its imo a no contest.

if the race goes as expected Overturn will lead at his own pace with the others either tracking or unable to keep up and he will just kick clear off what for him will be steady ish fractions

as long as he jumps fluently he has little to fear really

Not really Bud, but Tetlami has a bit of talent. I just wanted to make Overturn backers a little bit more nervous. Anything can happen!

Ladies and Gents. I think we may have a race in the Arkle!

You have to be impressed with todays performance, if he turns up in his usual form, as mccain says, simonsig will know he's had a race alright.

Lets not get carried away with that he was 1-5 one left at the start one 100-1 rag and one that doesnt jump.
What we did see was a good horse confirm he's retain all ablity at the age of 9 (old for a novice chaser) who jumps well but tetlami is no simonsig.

tetlami jumped like he had concrete boots on. cant wait to next Sat to see Simonsig smash them up. GAME ON!!!

robbo,
It doesn't matter whatsoever what the others were like or did, in these trial races you are looking for the visual impression as much as strict form lines...visually the horse was right on the button, galloped strongly the whole way, attacked every fence at pace and jumped very very well, that's all I'm interested in ...whether one refused to race or tetlami didn't like the track doesn't interest me tbh.

duffy
Im not knocking todays performance,very impressive my point is it showed nothing that you wouldnt expect a 1-5 shot do

I realize what you're saying but I think that you could get performances far inferior and yet could still be satisfactory, even for a 1/5 shot, I kind of think that this performance went over and above what we could have hoped for even allowing for his SP.

He loves it...I love him...

get a room! lol.

That will do nicely,and definitely ridden a tad more agressive which i wanted to see.

Spot on Duffy, who he lines up against at 1-5 is irrelevant, it the way he does it and the visual impression he makes

Especially when we are talking about a horse thats we already know is a horse of quality.

Did you not think he was edging left at his fences today? Though if he is out in front, it might not matter.

Never noticed that,and no mention of it in the race analysis afterwards.

He did a touch, but that wont hurt him at Chelts

i'm a huge Simonsig fan but to be honest he jumped a bit to the left at 3 fences down the back at Kempton. both will be ok at Cheltenham