Cheltenham Festival
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Originally I was against this horse for the Arkle, even after he dotted up on his Chase debut. After that race Robbie Power stated his ideal conditions would be 20f on Good ground. This may well still turn out to be the case and is a concern from an ante-post p.o.v. However, after he took a heavy fall at the 2nd fence in the Craddockstown Grade 2 chase one bookmakre, Lads, bumped his odds out to 16/1. Now considering OW was rated 160+ over hurdles, and finished an honourable 2nd to Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion last season, and also the fact his pre-season odds were 14/1, I decided this was too big and backed him (posted bets in the ante-post section).
Since his fall he was given a quite week off then 2 more before coming out and winning again,over 2miles, at Navan on the weekend. He absolutley hacked up. Robbie Power was even easing him down before the last fence. He jumped great throughout and if you go back and watch the Craddockstown race it is clear the horses in front went off very quick and OW tried going with them and came a cropper. Lesson learned there for sure. Just lets others make the pace. I was deeply impressed with that run and have backed him again at 12/1, still available in two places, and believe he should be 4pts shorter.
The trainer has stated his next race will be over Xmas, again over 2 miles, in Grade 1 company. Beyond that he may take in the Irish Arkle.
There is a STAT which says only one horse has won the Arkle before when taking a fall in one of their previous chases. That horse was Moscow Flyer so on the face of it it would seem OW has his work cut out. However I believe it is a nonsense to argue the logic of it, as by nature we are dealing with novices who will fall, when learning. It is normal in my eyes and only a matter of time before another horse wins the race after taking a fall previously. OW also happens to be trained by the same trainer as Moscow Flyer, so I doubt she will be unduly worried by it, and many horse have placed having fallen previously, e.g Menorah just last year.
IF OW runs in the Arkle, he wont be out of the frame imo.
This horse may give you the feeling he has had many chances to prove himself, but perhaps he just wanted fences, and he has plenty of strong form in the book.
Backed EW at 16/1 , and again at 12/1.
Since his fall he was given a quite week off then 2 more before coming out and winning again,over 2miles, at Navan on the weekend. He absolutley hacked up. Robbie Power was even easing him down before the last fence. He jumped great throughout and if you go back and watch the Craddockstown race it is clear the horses in front went off very quick and OW tried going with them and came a cropper. Lesson learned there for sure. Just lets others make the pace. I was deeply impressed with that run and have backed him again at 12/1, still available in two places, and believe he should be 4pts shorter.
The trainer has stated his next race will be over Xmas, again over 2 miles, in Grade 1 company. Beyond that he may take in the Irish Arkle.
There is a STAT which says only one horse has won the Arkle before when taking a fall in one of their previous chases. That horse was Moscow Flyer so on the face of it it would seem OW has his work cut out. However I believe it is a nonsense to argue the logic of it, as by nature we are dealing with novices who will fall, when learning. It is normal in my eyes and only a matter of time before another horse wins the race after taking a fall previously. OW also happens to be trained by the same trainer as Moscow Flyer, so I doubt she will be unduly worried by it, and many horse have placed having fallen previously, e.g Menorah just last year.
IF OW runs in the Arkle, he wont be out of the frame imo.
This horse may give you the feeling he has had many chances to prove himself, but perhaps he just wanted fences, and he has plenty of strong form in the book.
Backed EW at 16/1 , and again at 12/1.
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I'm on (as you know).I think a truly run Arkle on decent ground is tailor-made for him.The majority of the fancied horses ATM (Overturn,Arvika Ligeonniere,Captain Conan etc) all like to front run,or at least be handy,and whilst I appreciate it is perhaps a little crazy to second guess the make-up of a Cheltenham race in December,I do think if all goes well he could have optimum day of race conditions.
Obvious danger of being aimed at the 2.5m of course,and still a small question mark over his jumping proficiency,but weighing everything up I'm reasonably content with taking 12/1,although tbf I wouldn't want to take any shorter. |
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i put this one up earlier on the arkhole chase thread sint and good to see a few others have similar views ,and very encouraging to see no ill effects from the bad looking fall . his win the other day where he jumped and travelled well was impressive as he had the race won from a very long way out( barring mishaps ).and i too think he should be around an 8-10s at best and still good value at his current price . j.harrington said after the race, we will keep him now at 2 miles as the faster they go the better ,we will now go for the racing post chase novice chase at leopardstown .
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I couldn't have any of the opposition at this stage Hemsby. The only spoiler is Simonsig.
Overturn has been running to such a high level for a number of years now I think it is asking too much of him to come and win and Arkle. Captain Conan is decent but has been no more impressive than anything else. Arvika will get found out in the UK imo. Dynaste wont be dropped in trip. I think 12/1 is very decent. The chases he has completed he has absolutley hacked up. He has Grade 1 winning and placing form from each of his hurdles seasons. If he improves on that over fences .. Bingo! |
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they should all probably be shorter,thank you Simonsig!!
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Best bet of the festival imo will go off half the price Come Marc . Took some 16s myself
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At last, found the lunatic asylum.
  ...just a little bit of fun for those not on the NH thread btw!I have to say it was a brave call to back OW after his fall. However he did run very well at the weekend and whilst he did not beat very much, it did at least show he had not suffered any serious consequences following his mishap. Clearly he was a talented hurdler and he perhaps should be a festival winner. But if you simply use his hurdle rating then there should be no reason for him to turn round CH form with Overturn is there? I agree that there could be a pace burn up that could well play into his hands. Then again it might mean he needs to go faster than ideal to lay up and hence bring about a mistake. For me I'd want to see him perform in a better grade before investing though obviously if he does the price will go. Good luck nonetheless with your bets |
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Chasing has always been ow's game they were sort of forced to go the champion hurdle route last season simply because he showed enough to mix it with them. He will improve imo for Fences where as I think overturn will actually fair worse for jumping a fence. Overturn won't be able to run he'll for leather pinging fences he just don't have the scope. He's always looked a hurdler to me. Oscar in many ways resembles Sprinter sacre, very keen, travels powerfully. His Neptune run was the most taking run from a horse that failed to win 2 seasons ago. Think he could easily be 10 pounds better than his hurdling form just my opinion obviously but he's always looked at chaser for me
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Thought Overturn had just done that at Sandown Brooksie,not bad for his first chase imo.
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Ventana Canyon is another Arkle winner who fell previously in his novice campaign - he fell in the Irish Arkle, had a confidence builder, and then won our Arkle by 20 L
I don't really see a negative there anyway. I think there is a strong argument to say you're better off with a novice who has made mistakes and learned something rather than a novice who has jumped impeccably in a series of novice chases that really bare no resemblance to a typical Arkle |
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I've not simply used his hurdles rating Roo, but if I have you could easily argue he's way less exposed than Overturn and has a big ticket to improve anyway. He is bred for the job.
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On chase debut OW beat Darwins Fox 13 lengths who was rated 135 over hurdles, trained by Henry De Bromhead, so clearly not a bad horse. Darwins Fox on his next start finished 6 length second to Sword of Destiny who Noel Meade rates very highly. The form looks fine to me for what he has done so far. I dont think you can say he has beaten absolutley nothing because that's not what the form book says.
The Grade 1 on Dec26th has Arvika Leg in it, but barring him there is not much else in the race to worry about. AL needs to prove he can win back-to-back races after a lay-off as since his injury both wins have been after 100 days off the track. |
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Sint - I was a massive fan of this horse the last 2 years (said he'd be the next Best Mate and even bigged him up as a live outsider for the Champion Hurdle
 .He ultimately proved a bit disapointing to me. His hurdle rating is very high but he never looked like winning or even going close in any of his races last year and was always weak in the last furlong which was my biggest concern. Even on Saturday there was a moment when I thought he might get reeled in. I'm happy to wait until he wins a really decent race to prove he is definitely the real deal again - obviously I'll have to take a much lower price than 16/1 but I'm happy to accept that - if he doesn't measure up in better company over Christmas at least I'll have kept my powder dry. |
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Another possible Cheltenham Festival contender for the stable, Oscars Well is also set to be in action at the same Leopardstown meeting (Christmas).
Sixth in the Champion Hurdle last season, he impressed on his steeplechasing debut at Punchestown in October only to get no further than the second fence at the same track two and a half weeks later. The seven-year-old has since put in a clear round at Navan to return to winning form, but Harrington is keen to get further match practice into Oscars Well in the weeks ahead. "After the first run I was delighted, he was brilliant. Then at Punchestown he took a bad fall and he was lucky to get up from it," she said. "We gave him a bit of time to recover from it and then he went to Navan and I couldn't have been more pleased with him. "He goes over two miles and a furlong at Christmas in the novice chase at Leopardsown, then he goes for the Irish Arkle and then we can make a decision whether he steps up in trip after that." ----------- Might be worth holding your bets if you're not already on. Very concerned that they're even thinking of stepping him up already. Looks like he'll have to win one of those big 2m races to go for the Arkle. |
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how are you concerned tucho?? when the horse is about to embark on 2 runs over 2 miles??
of course he will have to win or run well to prove his class in top company and thus prove he is capable of winning the arkle |
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"Might be worth holding your bets if you're not already on. Very concerned that they're even thinking of stepping him up already."
Just like his hurdling campaign OW doesn't have the class to mix it with the top 2 milers and they know it already, but of course they need confirmation and will get it at Christmas. The opposition he beat at Navan were very much inferior and it didn't look like he had much left in the tank. Given that he jumped brilliantly it was a mediocre win at best. Wouldn't touch him for Cheltenham even if he stepped up as he'd be going up against Dynaste. Can't see him rated higher then 150-152 over fences. IMHO. |
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He has not been tested at the highest level over fences so that's nonsense.
Connections of Captain Conan are also considering going up in trip, so by your logic they don't rate him, either? Jessica Harrington is just keeping her options open. we see this EVERY season. OW's next two runs are going to be in Grade 1s over 2 miles. That's evidence enough for me. Uncle, Robbie Power had eased before the last fence at Navan, he won with tons in hand. After his heavy fall previously they were on a confidence re-building mission. No need to go for it in a race like that. We'll see at Xmas. He will face Sword of Destiny & Arvika. What are you thoughts on those 2 over 2miles? |
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sint for me Xmas will tell connections whether he can jump at a decent 2M pace as I'd be assuming that Arvika will go from the front.
As long as he does jump well he'll go the Arkle whatever the result...unless he is beaten out of sight that is |
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Just had a small bit of 12 and 12.5 on here. Also on Simonsig at 6.2. Two who are most likely to hit all the stats. Think Jewson could end up being more competitive than the arkle this year
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It was very heavy ground at navan aswell. The race was only a schooling session and he was left on his own a long way from home. I imo he' the most likely winner of the race
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Most likely Arkle winner. Travels extremely well like a top class 2 mile chaser should and will jump better with a stronger pace on. The trainer knows what it takes as well.
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Overturn,Arvika,Conan,all been out and been impressive.
Simonsig still to come. Think it a tad early to say the most likely winner,and a bit too competitive!! |
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If Simonsig comes out and bolts up in a few novice chases impressively then we could well see a few more head to the Jewson, that is where that race has ruined the Arkle
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I see him more of a Jewson sort myself. However, nobody should be put off if they like him for the Arkle. Make your own decisions. I think they swerved a tie against Avrike the last time.
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I don't think connections of any horse would be frightened of one horse tbh, Simonsig. Last year we had Sprinter Sacre and yet the horses in behind were all top class. If connections believe they have the right horse for the Arkle, they will run regardless. Imo.
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I'm not saying OW is a certain Arkle horse, he may want 20f, but IF connections believe he is they will run whatever Simonsig does.
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I don't think they would be frightened either, but some trainers do like to play it by chance. If they see a couple of good 2 milers around, they might weigh up the worth of going for it. Many trainers don't commit to a certain race and say they are not sure of a horses true distance. That's French for 'i will see what the other trainers do'. J Harrington won't have many runners, so she will size up the opponents before deciding, because the horse would definitely get 2m 5f. If anyone likes the horse, go and get it put up in the 'to win a race' market.
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I don't know but I'd like to think that the Arkle is the Arkle and that any horse thought capable would go for it. I do see the the Jewson much more as an option for potential staying types who's rather swerve the RSA.
Graeme OW may have swerved Arviika last time but he needed a confidence booster after quite a heavy fall. Won't swerve him over Xmas imo |
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We will see what happens Roobuck, and i understand the sentiments of yourself, Sint and others. I'm not one for trying to disuade others. This is why i think it would be ok going for the 'any festival race' market with this one. With regards to the Jewson being for the RSA avoiders, then maybe it all depends on the season. For example, i'm not so sure i see Conan and Simonsig going for the same race, and it might just be that Avrika and OW might no face each other at Cheltenham. I see neither of those mentioned as RSA horses. We will see what happens. There may be some ofther things to consider at the time, such as people splitting their horses to try and give themselves a better chance at the trainers title.
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I know what you mean about CC, that could well be one that swerves the Arkle like you say for trainer's benefit. Think that's wrong, feel a little sorry for the owner if that we're to happen.
But why do you think OW and Arvika will avoid each other? |
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i only think that they could, if there was an obvious difference in quality in their next couple of races. Lets see what happens.
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Darwins Fox runs in the 12.45 Fairyhouse tomorrow to advertise the OW and Sword of Destiny form. OW beat him 12, SOD 6. Alderwood and Terminal in the race also.
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Lets hope that's not an accurate advertisement of OW's form then.
Proves to me that his Arkle price is simply a reflection of what he did as a hurdler, and nothing to do with his chase form. |
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I wouldn't go that far personally as it does less for the form of SOD.
None of the runners in the Arkle have form that stands out yet. |
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Come on sint, you suggested that Darwin Fox was a good reference for the form of OW and he let it down badly. In addition in his last race, the third was beaten 94L in the chase that OW fell in.
If an unheralded hurdler had that form and was 12/1 for the Arkle you would say the price was ludicrous. Clearly he is a very good and talented horse. He may well prove his ability over Xmas and of course its then a different conversation. You have a high regard for the horse which is fair enough. I am not saying its form that would justify winning the Arkle, but actually imo CC has 2 mile chase form that is way above anything else yet shown |
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I said it was a guide to the form of OW & SOD. I mention SOD because he is likely to be one of the main contenders for the Grade1 at Christmas. I know Darwins Fox let the form down yesterday, but then he did it for more than one horse, not just OW.
I still dont think the form is all that bad, particularly in the context of all the other runners we have seen so far. CC's form would be the strongest as Sire De Grugy is a decent yardstick. But I don't for one moment believe OW's Arkle price is solely to do with his hurdles rating. If I did I would not have backed him. He has still won two chases impressively, when he has stood up. |
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Sint I agree that he has won his races well and at this stage that is all that matters.
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Looks like Arvika & OW will face off on the 26th.12 entered. SOD is entered also but he has 2 other entries, one of them slightly ''easier'' in a Grade 2.
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Arvika 4/5
OW 7/4 Beneficient 9/1 Baily Green 20/1 Dylan Ross 25/1 |
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Decent price about OW for me.
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