Cheltenham Festival
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Oscars Well - Arkle.
Oscars Well - Arkle.
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Replies: 87
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You on for March also mate or just race by race?
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Yep on for March as well mate. Was probably my biggest ap bet in the Bally,ore so can't desert him now!
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robby interviwed today and he said he thought the odds are the wrong way round for boxing day....i think oscars better on better ground
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The OW & Long Run double pays 7/1. Had a few beans on that.
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The sad thing for this horse is that not only will he have to be better than Arvika Legionaire tomorrow and Simonsig in March, but he will have to be a few pounds better due to the penalty of having John Wayne in the saddle. Small mercies that Ruby is at Kempton tomorrow I guess.
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I thought JW was dead?
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Glad my money stayed in my pocket.
 He did at least show some bottle but with the 3rd horse so close I just can't see any of those Irish horses being the slightest danger to Simonsig. If Simonsig were to miss the race or fall then frankly anything could win it at this stage. |
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Looks like Oscars Well won't even be aimed at the Arkle now as they're going to step him up in trip, but I agree with Uncle I'd be surprised if there was an Arkle winner in there today
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Was always going to be the loser of today's race would go for the Jewson imo
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well at least it was a proper race,unlike the english schooling sessions weve seen so far.
i would think AL will benefit from that once hes recovered,and will probably not run again till March. aint backed him yet,dont need to with simonsig around,as his price wont get shorter,but i will back him on the day. |
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'Stepping him up in trip'?
Only a season and a half too late then |
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Bud - Presumably Ruby will be on AL at Cheltenham which will aid his cause and given the paucity of realistic contenders the 7/1 now might be an e/w bet to nothing. Has Nicholss got anything for the Arkle?
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cant think of anything obvious that nicholls has uncle,so Ruby has to be fav to ride AL i would think.
see Mullins has talked about the Irish Arkle end of Jan for him. Thing is uncle that was not visually that impressive today,and with Simonsig about his price is hardly gonna shorten much,so imo may as well wait till a lot nearer the day. |
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Bit quick to write oscars well off on the back of that run...
run came plenty quick enough after running on bottomless the run before...still think he will run in the arkle myself even if they prep him over 2 and 1/2 miles... we will see but he never travelled at all and I'd say it came to soon for him...we will see |
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I thought he travelled ok after hitting the first. Closed up to the leader but then got outpaced coming round the final bend. AL then seemed to idle but always held Oscars. I would be surprised if Oscars could reverse the form over 2 miles
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Have to agree, thought conditions and distance favoured Oscars Well over AL today so the fact that he was outclassed is disappointing.
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Said it before on here. Oscars Wells = bridesmaid never the bride. Same as Overturn. When the top horses show up they fall short. In my opinion best 2m Novices are both at 7Barrows - Simonsig and Capt Conan. Nice problem to have for NH.
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Well the hope did not last too long!
I think the proximity of BailyGreen holds the form down for both horses tbh. Simonsig runs again today and you get the impression NJH wont run both him and CC in the Arkle. If that is the case then something needs to finish 2nd & 3rd in the Arkle which is all I can hope for now, that's if OW even runs. It'll probably be a 6 or 7 runner field. |
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Can see both AL and OW running in the Jewson come March. Rich Ricci just wants to have winners in Cheltenham and that race will be the easier option now that Dynaste is definitely RSA bound. GET ON!!!!
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Sorry not seen the quotes that Dynaste is defo RSA bound. Where was it confirmed?
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Agreed.
The horse is never a championship class two-miler over fences or hurdles and has basically wasted the last 18 months. |
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I think the Jewson is going to be a very hotly contested race.
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The Jewson is Grade 1 standard in all but name.
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Why would AL run in the Jewson?
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Whether or not he'll run in it, but I also think AL looks more like a horse that would be better suited to the Jewson.
I don't get why Mullins sent him to the Albert Bsartlett as a novice hurdler if he thought he was a 2 miler. |
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AL is a strange one, I always get the impression that he looks like a lumbering stayer, but he can't be, I can't believe he'll be quick enough for an arkle though, he cruised through the albert bartlett on atrocious ground before hitting the wall didn't he, another one for the jewson imo too.
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he will def go for the arkle.
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"Why would AL run in the Jewson?"
Because it's his best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham. IMO. I'm assuming of course that Simonsig/Overturn run in the Arkle and Dynaste runs in the RSA. These are safe assumptions to me. GLTA. |
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You said that Dynaste is definitely RSA bound. That is an assumption that I am yet to be convinced by. Connections may well remember Grand Crus and keep him to shorter though I will concede unlike GC, he did look better the further he went in the Feltham.
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After watching AL in his 2 chases,i cannot see any other race but the Arkle,his style suggests to me that 2m round Cheltenham is ideal,and for me is easily his best chance of success.
No good worrying about other horses who may or may not be better than him,at this stage its too early to know anyway. |
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Oscars Well will still go for the arkle. Watching the race back I just think they let AL get away. It was very tiring ground and AL set a decent pace. I'm very interested that Ladbrokes actually cut Oscars Well's price and come March on better ground ridden more prominently I'd expect the result to change. No arkle was won on December ground bare that in mind. The likes of Oscars Well will show much better form running on better stuff.
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Better ground in March......you sure Brooksie?? cos i aint!!
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its bound to be better budd,its always worse now and dont forget how quickly chelt drains when the rain does decide to relent..it would be nice to start on genuine g/s ground.
not the manufactured g/s then changed to good after the supreme-to good to firm on 2nd day. |
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its not always worse tweedle,they are inspecting Sunday for NYD,its as bas as its ever been for this time of year.
Weve had meetings there on very soft going already,its been raining consistently and the water levels are so high it only takes a bit of rain to keep it topped up mate. Be careful is my advice tweedle. |
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I hope you are right Brooksie and I think there is still a chance he'll run in the race. Something has got to finish 2nd or 3rd to Simonsig and the prize money for a place will be better than that available in the Jewson.
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trainer has all but ruled out the Arkle. Say he may even skip Cheltenham and wait for the Powers Gold Cup.
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Having looked like a potential superstar as a novice, I think people need to realise that he just aint that good.
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Oscars well is responsible for another of those performances, much like the mon parrain, tataniano, sanctuaire and this season for non stop, where the destruction job administered apparently heralded a new superstar. His though was actually achieved in defeat!!, the way he travelled in the neptune lives long in the memory, that race which threw up FL and ROR only goes to perpetuate the myth.!
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Agreed
Until connections step it back up to the kind of trip all its top class performances were achieved at and its pedigree dictates it should run at, then this horse will win d-ick |
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His best performance was when he hosed up over 2m2f in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown. He ran well in the Neptune (travelled too keenly if anything bit like Flemenstar in the Lexus) but imo was destined for 3rd place at best even without the mistake at the last. Having matured now I don't see 2m4f being an issue anymore but as I indicated earlier he seems to have lost his brilliance since that Neptune run and is not a top class prospect anymore.
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