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Originally I was against this horse for the Arkle, even after he dotted up on his Chase debut. After that race Robbie Power stated his ideal conditions would be 20f on Good ground. This may well still turn out to be the case and is a concern from an ante-post p.o.v. However, after he took a heavy fall at the 2nd fence in the Craddockstown Grade 2 chase one bookmakre, Lads, bumped his odds out to 16/1. Now considering OW was rated 160+ over hurdles, and finished an honourable 2nd to Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion last season, and also the fact his pre-season odds were 14/1, I decided this was too big and backed him (posted bets in the ante-post section).
Since his fall he was given a quite week off then 2 more before coming out and winning again,over 2miles, at Navan on the weekend. He absolutley hacked up. Robbie Power was even easing him down before the last fence. He jumped great throughout and if you go back and watch the Craddockstown race it is clear the horses in front went off very quick and OW tried going with them and came a cropper. Lesson learned there for sure. Just lets others make the pace. I was deeply impressed with that run and have backed him again at 12/1, still available in two places, and believe he should be 4pts shorter.
The trainer has stated his next race will be over Xmas, again over 2 miles, in Grade 1 company. Beyond that he may take in the Irish Arkle.
There is a STAT which says only one horse has won the Arkle before when taking a fall in one of their previous chases. That horse was Moscow Flyer so on the face of it it would seem OW has his work cut out. However I believe it is a nonsense to argue the logic of it, as by nature we are dealing with novices who will fall, when learning. It is normal in my eyes and only a matter of time before another horse wins the race after taking a fall previously. OW also happens to be trained by the same trainer as Moscow Flyer, so I doubt she will be unduly worried by it, and many horse have placed having fallen previously, e.g Menorah just last year.
IF OW runs in the Arkle, he wont be out of the frame imo.
This horse may give you the feeling he has had many chances to prove himself, but perhaps he just wanted fences, and he has plenty of strong form in the book.
Backed EW at 16/1 , and again at 12/1.
Since his fall he was given a quite week off then 2 more before coming out and winning again,over 2miles, at Navan on the weekend. He absolutley hacked up. Robbie Power was even easing him down before the last fence. He jumped great throughout and if you go back and watch the Craddockstown race it is clear the horses in front went off very quick and OW tried going with them and came a cropper. Lesson learned there for sure. Just lets others make the pace. I was deeply impressed with that run and have backed him again at 12/1, still available in two places, and believe he should be 4pts shorter.
The trainer has stated his next race will be over Xmas, again over 2 miles, in Grade 1 company. Beyond that he may take in the Irish Arkle.
There is a STAT which says only one horse has won the Arkle before when taking a fall in one of their previous chases. That horse was Moscow Flyer so on the face of it it would seem OW has his work cut out. However I believe it is a nonsense to argue the logic of it, as by nature we are dealing with novices who will fall, when learning. It is normal in my eyes and only a matter of time before another horse wins the race after taking a fall previously. OW also happens to be trained by the same trainer as Moscow Flyer, so I doubt she will be unduly worried by it, and many horse have placed having fallen previously, e.g Menorah just last year.
IF OW runs in the Arkle, he wont be out of the frame imo.
This horse may give you the feeling he has had many chances to prove himself, but perhaps he just wanted fences, and he has plenty of strong form in the book.
Backed EW at 16/1 , and again at 12/1.
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I'm on (as you know).I think a truly run Arkle on decent ground is tailor-made for him.The majority of the fancied horses ATM (Overturn,Arvika Ligeonniere,Captain Conan etc) all like to front run,or at least be handy,and whilst I appreciate it is perhaps a little crazy to second guess the make-up of a Cheltenham race in December,I do think if all goes well he could have optimum day of race conditions.
Obvious danger of being aimed at the 2.5m of course,and still a small question mark over his jumping proficiency,but weighing everything up I'm reasonably content with taking 12/1,although tbf I wouldn't want to take any shorter.
Obvious danger of being aimed at the 2.5m of course,and still a small question mark over his jumping proficiency,but weighing everything up I'm reasonably content with taking 12/1,although tbf I wouldn't want to take any shorter.
i put this one up earlier on the arkhole chase thread sint and good to see a few others have similar views ,and very encouraging to see no ill effects from the bad looking fall . his win the other day where he jumped and travelled well was impressive as he had the race won from a very long way out( barring mishaps ).and i too think he should be around an 8-10s at best and still good value at his current price . j.harrington said after the race, we will keep him now at 2 miles as the faster they go the better ,we will now go for the racing post chase novice chase at leopardstown .
I couldn't have any of the opposition at this stage Hemsby. The only spoiler is Simonsig.
Overturn has been running to such a high level for a number of years now I think it is asking too much of him to come and win and Arkle.
Captain Conan is decent but has been no more impressive than anything else.
Arvika will get found out in the UK imo.
Dynaste wont be dropped in trip.
I think 12/1 is very decent. The chases he has completed he has absolutley hacked up. He has Grade 1 winning and placing form from each of his hurdles seasons. If he improves on that over fences .. Bingo!
Overturn has been running to such a high level for a number of years now I think it is asking too much of him to come and win and Arkle.
Captain Conan is decent but has been no more impressive than anything else.
Arvika will get found out in the UK imo.
Dynaste wont be dropped in trip.
I think 12/1 is very decent. The chases he has completed he has absolutley hacked up. He has Grade 1 winning and placing form from each of his hurdles seasons. If he improves on that over fences .. Bingo!
they should all probably be shorter,thank you Simonsig!!
Best bet of the festival imo will go off half the price Come Marc . Took some 16s myself
At last, found the lunatic asylum. 
...just a little bit of fun for those not on the NH thread btw!
I have to say it was a brave call to back OW after his fall. However he did run very well at the weekend and whilst he did not beat very much, it did at least show he had not suffered any serious consequences following his mishap.
Clearly he was a talented hurdler and he perhaps should be a festival winner. But if you simply use his hurdle rating then there should be no reason for him to turn round CH form with Overturn is there?
I agree that there could be a pace burn up that could well play into his hands. Then again it might mean he needs to go faster than ideal to lay up and hence bring about a mistake.
For me I'd want to see him perform in a better grade before investing though obviously if he does the price will go.
Good luck nonetheless with your bets
...just a little bit of fun for those not on the NH thread btw!I have to say it was a brave call to back OW after his fall. However he did run very well at the weekend and whilst he did not beat very much, it did at least show he had not suffered any serious consequences following his mishap.
Clearly he was a talented hurdler and he perhaps should be a festival winner. But if you simply use his hurdle rating then there should be no reason for him to turn round CH form with Overturn is there?
I agree that there could be a pace burn up that could well play into his hands. Then again it might mean he needs to go faster than ideal to lay up and hence bring about a mistake.
For me I'd want to see him perform in a better grade before investing though obviously if he does the price will go.
Good luck nonetheless with your bets
Chasing has always been ow's game they were sort of forced to go the champion hurdle route last season simply because he showed enough to mix it with them. He will improve imo for Fences where as I think overturn will actually fair worse for jumping a fence. Overturn won't be able to run he'll for leather pinging fences he just don't have the scope. He's always looked a hurdler to me. Oscar in many ways resembles Sprinter sacre, very keen, travels powerfully. His Neptune run was the most taking run from a horse that failed to win 2 seasons ago. Think he could easily be 10 pounds better than his hurdling form just my opinion obviously but he's always looked at chaser for me
Thought Overturn had just done that at Sandown Brooksie,not bad for his first chase imo.
Ventana Canyon is another Arkle winner who fell previously in his novice campaign - he fell in the Irish Arkle, had a confidence builder, and then won our Arkle by 20 L
I don't really see a negative there anyway. I think there is a strong argument to say you're better off with a novice who has made mistakes and learned something rather than a novice who has jumped impeccably in a series of novice chases that really bare no resemblance to a typical Arkle
I don't really see a negative there anyway. I think there is a strong argument to say you're better off with a novice who has made mistakes and learned something rather than a novice who has jumped impeccably in a series of novice chases that really bare no resemblance to a typical Arkle
I've not simply used his hurdles rating Roo, but if I have you could easily argue he's way less exposed than Overturn and has a big ticket to improve anyway. He is bred for the job.
On chase debut OW beat Darwins Fox 13 lengths who was rated 135 over hurdles, trained by Henry De Bromhead, so clearly not a bad horse. Darwins Fox on his next start finished 6 length second to Sword of Destiny who Noel Meade rates very highly. The form looks fine to me for what he has done so far. I dont think you can say he has beaten absolutley nothing because that's not what the form book says.
The Grade 1 on Dec26th has Arvika Leg in it, but barring him there is not much else in the race to worry about. AL needs to prove he can win back-to-back races after a lay-off as since his injury both wins have been after 100 days off the track.
The Grade 1 on Dec26th has Arvika Leg in it, but barring him there is not much else in the race to worry about. AL needs to prove he can win back-to-back races after a lay-off as since his injury both wins have been after 100 days off the track.
Sint - I was a massive fan of this horse the last 2 years (said he'd be the next Best Mate and even bigged him up as a live outsider for the Champion Hurdle
.
He ultimately proved a bit disapointing to me. His hurdle rating is very high but he never looked like winning or even going close in any of his races last year and was always weak in the last furlong which was my biggest concern. Even on Saturday there was a moment when I thought he might get reeled in.
I'm happy to wait until he wins a really decent race to prove he is definitely the real deal again - obviously I'll have to take a much lower price than 16/1 but I'm happy to accept that - if he doesn't measure up in better company over Christmas at least I'll have kept my powder dry.
.He ultimately proved a bit disapointing to me. His hurdle rating is very high but he never looked like winning or even going close in any of his races last year and was always weak in the last furlong which was my biggest concern. Even on Saturday there was a moment when I thought he might get reeled in.
I'm happy to wait until he wins a really decent race to prove he is definitely the real deal again - obviously I'll have to take a much lower price than 16/1 but I'm happy to accept that - if he doesn't measure up in better company over Christmas at least I'll have kept my powder dry.
Another possible Cheltenham Festival contender for the stable, Oscars Well is also set to be in action at the same Leopardstown meeting (Christmas).
Sixth in the Champion Hurdle last season, he impressed on his steeplechasing debut at Punchestown in October only to get no further than the second fence at the same track two and a half weeks later.
The seven-year-old has since put in a clear round at Navan to return to winning form, but Harrington is keen to get further match practice into Oscars Well in the weeks ahead.
"After the first run I was delighted, he was brilliant. Then at Punchestown he took a bad fall and he was lucky to get up from it," she said.
"We gave him a bit of time to recover from it and then he went to Navan and I couldn't have been more pleased with him.
"He goes over two miles and a furlong at Christmas in the novice chase at Leopardsown, then he goes for the Irish Arkle and then we can make a decision whether he steps up in trip after that."
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Might be worth holding your bets if you're not already on. Very concerned that they're even thinking of stepping him up already. Looks like he'll have to win one of those big 2m races to go for the Arkle.
Sixth in the Champion Hurdle last season, he impressed on his steeplechasing debut at Punchestown in October only to get no further than the second fence at the same track two and a half weeks later.
The seven-year-old has since put in a clear round at Navan to return to winning form, but Harrington is keen to get further match practice into Oscars Well in the weeks ahead.
"After the first run I was delighted, he was brilliant. Then at Punchestown he took a bad fall and he was lucky to get up from it," she said.
"We gave him a bit of time to recover from it and then he went to Navan and I couldn't have been more pleased with him.
"He goes over two miles and a furlong at Christmas in the novice chase at Leopardsown, then he goes for the Irish Arkle and then we can make a decision whether he steps up in trip after that."
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Might be worth holding your bets if you're not already on. Very concerned that they're even thinking of stepping him up already. Looks like he'll have to win one of those big 2m races to go for the Arkle.
how are you concerned tucho?? when the horse is about to embark on 2 runs over 2 miles??
of course he will have to win or run well to prove his class in top company and thus prove he is capable of winning the arkle
of course he will have to win or run well to prove his class in top company and thus prove he is capable of winning the arkle
"Might be worth holding your bets if you're not already on. Very concerned that they're even thinking of stepping him up already."
Just like his hurdling campaign OW doesn't have the class to mix it with the top 2 milers and they know it already, but of course they need confirmation and will get it at Christmas. The opposition he beat at Navan were very much inferior and it didn't look like he had much left in the tank. Given that he jumped brilliantly it was a mediocre win at best. Wouldn't touch him for Cheltenham even if he stepped up as he'd be going up against Dynaste. Can't see him rated higher then 150-152 over fences. IMHO.
Just like his hurdling campaign OW doesn't have the class to mix it with the top 2 milers and they know it already, but of course they need confirmation and will get it at Christmas. The opposition he beat at Navan were very much inferior and it didn't look like he had much left in the tank. Given that he jumped brilliantly it was a mediocre win at best. Wouldn't touch him for Cheltenham even if he stepped up as he'd be going up against Dynaste. Can't see him rated higher then 150-152 over fences. IMHO.
He has not been tested at the highest level over fences so that's nonsense.
Connections of Captain Conan are also considering going up in trip, so by your logic they don't rate him, either?
Jessica Harrington is just keeping her options open. we see this EVERY season. OW's next two runs are going to be in Grade 1s over 2 miles. That's evidence enough for me.
Uncle, Robbie Power had eased before the last fence at Navan, he won with tons in hand. After his heavy fall previously they were on a confidence re-building mission. No need to go for it in a race like that.
We'll see at Xmas. He will face Sword of Destiny & Arvika. What are you thoughts on those 2 over 2miles?
Connections of Captain Conan are also considering going up in trip, so by your logic they don't rate him, either?
Jessica Harrington is just keeping her options open. we see this EVERY season. OW's next two runs are going to be in Grade 1s over 2 miles. That's evidence enough for me.
Uncle, Robbie Power had eased before the last fence at Navan, he won with tons in hand. After his heavy fall previously they were on a confidence re-building mission. No need to go for it in a race like that.
We'll see at Xmas. He will face Sword of Destiny & Arvika. What are you thoughts on those 2 over 2miles?
sint for me Xmas will tell connections whether he can jump at a decent 2M pace as I'd be assuming that Arvika will go from the front.
As long as he does jump well he'll go the Arkle whatever the result...unless he is beaten out of sight that is
As long as he does jump well he'll go the Arkle whatever the result...unless he is beaten out of sight that is
Just had a small bit of 12 and 12.5 on here. Also on Simonsig at 6.2. Two who are most likely to hit all the stats. Think Jewson could end up being more competitive than the arkle this year
It was very heavy ground at navan aswell. The race was only a schooling session and he was left on his own a long way from home. I imo he' the most likely winner of the race
Most likely Arkle winner. Travels extremely well like a top class 2 mile chaser should and will jump better with a stronger pace on. The trainer knows what it takes as well.
Overturn,Arvika,Conan,all been out and been impressive.
Simonsig still to come.
Think it a tad early to say the most likely winner,and a bit too competitive!!
Simonsig still to come.
Think it a tad early to say the most likely winner,and a bit too competitive!!
If Simonsig comes out and bolts up in a few novice chases impressively then we could well see a few more head to the Jewson, that is where that race has ruined the Arkle
I see him more of a Jewson sort myself. However, nobody should be put off if they like him for the Arkle. Make your own decisions. I think they swerved a tie against Avrike the last time.
I don't think connections of any horse would be frightened of one horse tbh, Simonsig. Last year we had Sprinter Sacre and yet the horses in behind were all top class. If connections believe they have the right horse for the Arkle, they will run regardless. Imo.
I'm not saying OW is a certain Arkle horse, he may want 20f, but IF connections believe he is they will run whatever Simonsig does.
I don't think they would be frightened either, but some trainers do like to play it by chance. If they see a couple of good 2 milers around, they might weigh up the worth of going for it. Many trainers don't commit to a certain race and say they are not sure of a horses true distance. That's French for 'i will see what the other trainers do'. J Harrington won't have many runners, so she will size up the opponents before deciding, because the horse would definitely get 2m 5f. If anyone likes the horse, go and get it put up in the 'to win a race' market.
I don't know but I'd like to think that the Arkle is the Arkle and that any horse thought capable would go for it. I do see the the Jewson much more as an option for potential staying types who's rather swerve the RSA.
Graeme OW may have swerved Arviika last time but he needed a confidence booster after quite a heavy fall. Won't swerve him over Xmas imo
Graeme OW may have swerved Arviika last time but he needed a confidence booster after quite a heavy fall. Won't swerve him over Xmas imo
We will see what happens Roobuck, and i understand the sentiments of yourself, Sint and others. I'm not one for trying to disuade others. This is why i think it would be ok going for the 'any festival race' market with this one. With regards to the Jewson being for the RSA avoiders, then maybe it all depends on the season. For example, i'm not so sure i see Conan and Simonsig going for the same race, and it might just be that Avrika and OW might no face each other at Cheltenham. I see neither of those mentioned as RSA horses. We will see what happens. There may be some ofther things to consider at the time, such as people splitting their horses to try and give themselves a better chance at the trainers title.
I know what you mean about CC, that could well be one that swerves the Arkle like you say for trainer's benefit. Think that's wrong, feel a little sorry for the owner if that we're to happen.
But why do you think OW and Arvika will avoid each other?
But why do you think OW and Arvika will avoid each other?
i only think that they could, if there was an obvious difference in quality in their next couple of races. Lets see what happens.
Darwins Fox runs in the 12.45 Fairyhouse tomorrow to advertise the OW and Sword of Destiny form. OW beat him 12, SOD 6. Alderwood and Terminal in the race also.
Lets hope that's not an accurate advertisement of OW's form then.
Proves to me that his Arkle price is simply a reflection of what he did as a hurdler, and nothing to do with his chase form.
Proves to me that his Arkle price is simply a reflection of what he did as a hurdler, and nothing to do with his chase form.
I wouldn't go that far personally as it does less for the form of SOD.
None of the runners in the Arkle have form that stands out yet.
None of the runners in the Arkle have form that stands out yet.
Come on sint, you suggested that Darwin Fox was a good reference for the form of OW and he let it down badly. In addition in his last race, the third was beaten 94L in the chase that OW fell in.
If an unheralded hurdler had that form and was 12/1 for the Arkle you would say the price was ludicrous.
Clearly he is a very good and talented horse. He may well prove his ability over Xmas and of course its then a different conversation. You have a high regard for the horse which is fair enough.
I am not saying its form that would justify winning the Arkle, but actually imo CC has 2 mile chase form that is way above anything else yet shown
If an unheralded hurdler had that form and was 12/1 for the Arkle you would say the price was ludicrous.
Clearly he is a very good and talented horse. He may well prove his ability over Xmas and of course its then a different conversation. You have a high regard for the horse which is fair enough.
I am not saying its form that would justify winning the Arkle, but actually imo CC has 2 mile chase form that is way above anything else yet shown
I said it was a guide to the form of OW & SOD. I mention SOD because he is likely to be one of the main contenders for the Grade1 at Christmas. I know Darwins Fox let the form down yesterday, but then he did it for more than one horse, not just OW.
I still dont think the form is all that bad, particularly in the context of all the other runners we have seen so far. CC's form would be the strongest as Sire De Grugy is a decent yardstick.
But I don't for one moment believe OW's Arkle price is solely to do with his hurdles rating. If I did I would not have backed him. He has still won two chases impressively, when he has stood up.
I still dont think the form is all that bad, particularly in the context of all the other runners we have seen so far. CC's form would be the strongest as Sire De Grugy is a decent yardstick.
But I don't for one moment believe OW's Arkle price is solely to do with his hurdles rating. If I did I would not have backed him. He has still won two chases impressively, when he has stood up.
Sint I agree that he has won his races well and at this stage that is all that matters.
Looks like Arvika & OW will face off on the 26th.12 entered. SOD is entered also but he has 2 other entries, one of them slightly ''easier'' in a Grade 2.
Arvika 4/5
OW 7/4
Beneficient 9/1
Baily Green 20/1
Dylan Ross 25/1
OW 7/4
Beneficient 9/1
Baily Green 20/1
Dylan Ross 25/1
Yep on for March as well mate. Was probably my biggest ap bet in the Bally,ore so can't desert him now!
robby interviwed today and he said he thought the odds are the wrong way round for boxing day....i think oscars better on better ground
The OW & Long Run double pays 7/1. Had a few beans on that.
The sad thing for this horse is that not only will he have to be better than Arvika Legionaire tomorrow and Simonsig in March, but he will have to be a few pounds better due to the penalty of having John Wayne in the saddle. Small mercies that Ruby is at Kempton tomorrow I guess.
Glad my money stayed in my pocket.
He did at least show some bottle but with the 3rd horse so close I just can't see any of those Irish horses being the slightest danger to Simonsig.
If Simonsig were to miss the race or fall then frankly anything could win it at this stage.
He did at least show some bottle but with the 3rd horse so close I just can't see any of those Irish horses being the slightest danger to Simonsig.
If Simonsig were to miss the race or fall then frankly anything could win it at this stage.
Looks like Oscars Well won't even be aimed at the Arkle now as they're going to step him up in trip, but I agree with Uncle I'd be surprised if there was an Arkle winner in there today
Was always going to be the loser of today's race would go for the Jewson imo
well at least it was a proper race,unlike the english schooling sessions weve seen so far.
i would think AL will benefit from that once hes recovered,and will probably not run again till March.
aint backed him yet,dont need to with simonsig around,as his price wont get shorter,but i will back him on the day.
i would think AL will benefit from that once hes recovered,and will probably not run again till March.
aint backed him yet,dont need to with simonsig around,as his price wont get shorter,but i will back him on the day.
'Stepping him up in trip'?
Only a season and a half too late then
Only a season and a half too late then
Bud - Presumably Ruby will be on AL at Cheltenham which will aid his cause and given the paucity of realistic contenders the 7/1 now might be an e/w bet to nothing. Has Nicholss got anything for the Arkle?
cant think of anything obvious that nicholls has uncle,so Ruby has to be fav to ride AL i would think.
see Mullins has talked about the Irish Arkle end of Jan for him.
Thing is uncle that was not visually that impressive today,and with Simonsig about his price is hardly gonna shorten much,so imo may as well wait till a lot nearer the day.
see Mullins has talked about the Irish Arkle end of Jan for him.
Thing is uncle that was not visually that impressive today,and with Simonsig about his price is hardly gonna shorten much,so imo may as well wait till a lot nearer the day.
Bit quick to write oscars well off on the back of that run...
run came plenty quick enough after running on bottomless the run before...still think he will run in the arkle myself even if they prep him over 2 and 1/2 miles...
we will see but he never travelled at all and I'd say it came to soon for him...we will see
run came plenty quick enough after running on bottomless the run before...still think he will run in the arkle myself even if they prep him over 2 and 1/2 miles...
we will see but he never travelled at all and I'd say it came to soon for him...we will see
I thought he travelled ok after hitting the first. Closed up to the leader but then got outpaced coming round the final bend. AL then seemed to idle but always held Oscars. I would be surprised if Oscars could reverse the form over 2 miles
Have to agree, thought conditions and distance favoured Oscars Well over AL today so the fact that he was outclassed is disappointing.
Said it before on here. Oscars Wells = bridesmaid never the bride. Same as Overturn. When the top horses show up they fall short. In my opinion best 2m Novices are both at 7Barrows - Simonsig and Capt Conan. Nice problem to have for NH.
Well the hope did not last too long!
I think the proximity of BailyGreen holds the form down for both horses tbh.
Simonsig runs again today and you get the impression NJH wont run both him and CC in the Arkle. If that is the case then something needs to finish 2nd & 3rd in the Arkle which is all I can hope for now, that's if OW even runs. It'll probably be a 6 or 7 runner field.
I think the proximity of BailyGreen holds the form down for both horses tbh.
Simonsig runs again today and you get the impression NJH wont run both him and CC in the Arkle. If that is the case then something needs to finish 2nd & 3rd in the Arkle which is all I can hope for now, that's if OW even runs. It'll probably be a 6 or 7 runner field.
Can see both AL and OW running in the Jewson come March. Rich Ricci just wants to have winners in Cheltenham and that race will be the easier option now that Dynaste is definitely RSA bound. GET ON!!!! 
Sorry not seen the quotes that Dynaste is defo RSA bound. Where was it confirmed?
Agreed.
The horse is never a championship class two-miler over fences or hurdles and has basically wasted the last 18 months.
The horse is never a championship class two-miler over fences or hurdles and has basically wasted the last 18 months.
I think the Jewson is going to be a very hotly contested race.
Whether or not he'll run in it, but I also think AL looks more like a horse that would be better suited to the Jewson.
I don't get why Mullins sent him to the Albert Bsartlett as a novice hurdler if he thought he was a 2 miler.
I don't get why Mullins sent him to the Albert Bsartlett as a novice hurdler if he thought he was a 2 miler.
AL is a strange one, I always get the impression that he looks like a lumbering stayer, but he can't be, I can't believe he'll be quick enough for an arkle though, he cruised through the albert bartlett on atrocious ground before hitting the wall didn't he, another one for the jewson imo too.
"Why would AL run in the Jewson?"
Because it's his best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham. IMO. I'm assuming of course that Simonsig/Overturn run in the Arkle and Dynaste runs in the RSA. These are safe assumptions to me. GLTA.
Because it's his best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham. IMO. I'm assuming of course that Simonsig/Overturn run in the Arkle and Dynaste runs in the RSA. These are safe assumptions to me. GLTA.
You said that Dynaste is definitely RSA bound. That is an assumption that I am yet to be convinced by. Connections may well remember Grand Crus and keep him to shorter though I will concede unlike GC, he did look better the further he went in the Feltham.
After watching AL in his 2 chases,i cannot see any other race but the Arkle,his style suggests to me that 2m round Cheltenham is ideal,and for me is easily his best chance of success.
No good worrying about other horses who may or may not be better than him,at this stage its too early to know anyway.
No good worrying about other horses who may or may not be better than him,at this stage its too early to know anyway.
Oscars Well will still go for the arkle. Watching the race back I just think they let AL get away. It was very tiring ground and AL set a decent pace. I'm very interested that Ladbrokes actually cut Oscars Well's price and come March on better ground ridden more prominently I'd expect the result to change. No arkle was won on December ground bare that in mind. The likes of Oscars Well will show much better form running on better stuff.
Better ground in March......you sure Brooksie?? cos i aint!!
its bound to be better budd,its always worse now and dont forget how quickly chelt drains when the rain does decide to relent..it would be nice to start on genuine g/s ground.
not the manufactured g/s then changed to good after the supreme-to good to firm on 2nd day.
not the manufactured g/s then changed to good after the supreme-to good to firm on 2nd day.
its not always worse tweedle,they are inspecting Sunday for NYD,its as bas as its ever been for this time of year.
Weve had meetings there on very soft going already,its been raining consistently and the water levels are so high it only takes a bit of rain to keep it topped up mate.
Be careful is my advice tweedle.
Weve had meetings there on very soft going already,its been raining consistently and the water levels are so high it only takes a bit of rain to keep it topped up mate.
Be careful is my advice tweedle.
I hope you are right Brooksie and I think there is still a chance he'll run in the race. Something has got to finish 2nd or 3rd to Simonsig and the prize money for a place will be better than that available in the Jewson.
trainer has all but ruled out the Arkle. Say he may even skip Cheltenham and wait for the Powers Gold Cup. 
Having looked like a potential superstar as a novice, I think people need to realise that he just aint that good.
Oscars well is responsible for another of those performances, much like the mon parrain, tataniano, sanctuaire and this season for non stop, where the destruction job administered apparently heralded a new superstar. His though was actually achieved in defeat!!, the way he travelled in the neptune lives long in the memory, that race which threw up FL and ROR only goes to perpetuate the myth.!
Agreed
Until connections step it back up to the kind of trip all its top class performances were achieved at and its pedigree dictates it should run at, then this horse will win d-ick
Until connections step it back up to the kind of trip all its top class performances were achieved at and its pedigree dictates it should run at, then this horse will win d-ick
His best performance was when he hosed up over 2m2f in the Delloite Hurdle at Leopardstown. He ran well in the Neptune (travelled too keenly if anything bit like Flemenstar in the Lexus) but imo was destined for 3rd place at best even without the mistake at the last. Having matured now I don't see 2m4f being an issue anymore but as I indicated earlier he seems to have lost his brilliance since that Neptune run and is not a top class prospect anymore.
irish arkle has always been the idea mate...plans will firm up afterwards.
has he regressed? at worst in 2011 would have been within a length or two of first lieutenant and rock on ruby over 2m 4f after tanking through the race. Looked so one paced at christmas
no surprise with the Irish Arkle entry. He has been campaigned that way and on the book there is one horse to beat, Arvika. It's whether or not the Arkle in March in the plan afterwards which seems unlikely now, but we'll see, something has to finish 2nd or 3rd to Simonsig otherwise there'll be no race.
Jessie Harington in this weeks Weekender indicates it's highly likely he will miss Cheltenham and head to Aintree or Punchestown instead - scared off by Simonsig and Overturn.
Respect her record as a trainer but she's completely messed this horse up IMO
Respect her record as a trainer but she's completely messed this horse up IMO
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