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Cheltenham Festival
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These 206 comments are related to the topic:
Simonsig Targets
Simonsig Targets
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Replies: 206
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It will be fascinating to see his CH price on here getting backed mid race at ascot if he's been making mistakes...a few speculators may take a chance, and it would keep him away from potential clashes with SS for another year at least.
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sounds like you've had a decent bet on the horse for the champion hurdle duffy....could be wrong but the inspector clouseau in me says you have
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Think he'll go arkle this year then step up, thus missing SS.
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harry, I couldn't afford to have £2 tied up for 3 months !!
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T'was me who posted it up Joci hence i'm against him for the Arkle,Sure he may be a much better jumper of a fence now but one mistake on those downhill fences and it's goodnight vienna and to me he hardly looked a natural plus at the prices he can afford to be taken on imo,Terrible terrible ante-post considering where we currently are(december the 10th and no sign of him and splint problems reports from a stable who give **** all away),Captain Conan looks to be the stable number 1 atm and for me he is adequate if nothing spectacular but he does have experience of Cheltenham fences..I'm happy to oppose the pair currently.
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duffy
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captain conan drifting out to 10 and simonsig into 4.1. maybe because henderson said in racing post today that he "wouldn't mind going up to two and a half miles. he's a very powerful galloper. we could easily go two and a half miloes with him."
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SIMONSIG did a really smart school over ten fences and he was really good, perfect. He’s going to be a very exciting novice chaser. I understand that he’s now going to run at Ascot the weekend after next.
Barry G |
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Looks like Ascot next week. BJG gave a glowing report of a schooling session over 10 fences on ATR and is really excited about him.
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Oops.....sorry for the duplication!
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Simonsig Ascot Friday
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against overturn
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Be surprised if Overturn runs - currently soft and don't see the ground improving all that much if at all. Could also see Simonsig swerving it if the ground worsens.
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yes, mccain said the other day that he'll go wherever the ground is best and said it would have to be very bad to miss kempton if he hadn't run by then.
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If Nickey doesnt run him soon a few guys on the forum will burst. Dont reckon I will be backing him any time soon in anything but have him in a good few TTFs
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Simonsig will run on Friday imo, Overturn wont
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Maybe he will bbf, but currently soft at Ascot and lots of rain due next couple of days. Nowhere I would suggest gets any more testing than Swinley Bottom
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they'll both turn up at kempton at this rate and I hope it's not another mccain novice bubble burst at the hands of a henderson star like it was in the same race last year
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I hope they do Duffy - I'd throw a few quid at Sire de Grugy to beat them both on softish ground round Kempton.
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I expect to see Simonsig at Ascot on Friday, even if he is sporting water wings. There is no guarantee the ground will be any better at Kempton and the competition is likely to be stiffer. Suspect Hendo rues skipping the Open Meeting with Sprinter Sacre and Darlan. We've had a wet autumn and there seems to be every prospect that we will have a wet winter too.
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whack, whack finish's 2nd goes back over hurdles. 3/1 about a horse not jumped a fence in public and was brutal in PTPs some value!. Bookies love hype pays their winter oil bills.
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whack, whack finish's 2nd goes back over hurdles. 3/1 about a horse not jumped a fence in public and was brutal in PTPs some value!. Bookies love hype pays their winter oil bills.
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final des out for Ascot tomorrow. as expected overturn has been pulled out but Simonsig runs. only 5 runners but hopefully something can give him a lead for some of the race.
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I don't care that he beat nothing, he was brilliant today. Jumping was that of an accomplished 2nd or 3rd season chaser rather than a novice first time out. Was attacking them and looked class. Roll on the Arkle.
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whack, whack finish's 2nd goes back over hurdles. 3/1 about a horse not jumped a fence in public and was brutal in PTPs some value!. Bookies love hype pays their winter oil bills.
Not much of a race but he jumped well enough out of ground that wouldn't have suited him at all. There has been some sho!te posted on here about his jumping in P2P's 2 years ago, amateur trained and amateur ridden......relevant now? Well not really, no. |
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jumped great....but now as short as 2/1 for a race nearly 3 months away with some very sharp looking competition not for me.
Maybe on the day. |
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Well that was good wasn't it!
Could run again next week in the Wayward Lad. |
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going to be tough to beat anywhere hence the short price
how many serious contenders are there? 2 or 3 at most I'd say |
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Obviously anything can happen (see Big Bucks and Al ferof) but really barring injury, illness, a fall or plain bad luck (brought down etc) then the Arkle is his for the taking. If he turns up in good health and jumps well (and he jumped as well as any novice I've seen today - not as exuberant as Sprinter Sacre but equally not a single moment of concern).
With him being trained and ridden by the best in the buisness (imho) the chances of things going wrong are gretaly diminsihed so 2/1 seems perfectly fair to me. |
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Three other serious contenders at this point in Overturn, Arvika Ligeonniere and Oscars Well who have all looked good (bar one accident from Oscars Well who has had more practice since!)
Don't get me wrong - Simonsig jumped really well and looks very exciting but AL was just as impressive on his last appearance. I'd rather wait and see how they all progress as the season goes on - all three are due to run over the next 10 days or so, maybe even Simonsig again too. Sprinter Sacre went of at 8/11 on the day this year against 5 opponents and was available on special offer at evens on the morning of the race from Paddy P0wer so I struggle to see any upside in taking 2/1 now. |
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^ plus AL is scheduled to take on OW which should be informative.
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Overturn has to overcome the trend of 'no winner aged 9 or older since 1963' (sic) and the 'front runner' trend too
I don't see him as a serious contender at all and have already ruled him out. |
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All I wanted to see today was a clear round of jumping and that's exactly what we got. He obviously beat an extremely inferior rival today in totally different conditions but we know what kind of engine he's got from his hurdling days and we know he likes Cheltenham in March. The only question was whether or not he would be as effective over larger obstacles and despite being confident he would be ok today more than confirmed that. Captain Conan has beaten most threats this side of the pond with a bit of ease and he's a likely switcher to the Jewson which tells the story about the depth of the race at the moment. Overturn is a very likeable horse as he just tries his heart out at everything he does but his age is against him & I'm confident Simonsig will beat him anyway. I think the 2 Irish horses AL & Oscars Well look the biggest dangers but I'd def side with Simonsig. Will be interesting if he lines up at Kempton tbh.
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Will also add I hope those who were stating this horse couldn't jump as some sort of fact feel very foolish. I questioned it at the time but it's not at all helpful on an antepost forum where we are trying to form true opinions of horses and people talk absolute rubbish. Having an opinion is great but making statements when in fact you don't have a clue is just silly.
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Agree with this mm. When both Hendo and BJG said he needed a fence, I believed them....of course an amatuer trainer and amateur rider of a very immature horse would know better.....
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Overturn has to overcome the trend of 'no winner aged 9 or older since 1963' (sic) and the 'front runner' trend too
I don't see him as a serious contender at all and have already ruled him out. Fair enough that's your prerogative.The market sees him as a serious contender.How many 9 year olds have tried? Off the top of my head Voy Por, Tidal Bay and Sprinter himself all raced prominently before recording their victories (I was there for all of them). I respect the stats and use them myself but would not be so dogmatic as to rule Overturn out on the basis of those two three months before the race. |
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Simonsig was impressive but doesn't bend his back as well as Captain Conan and will need to pick up his rear end better to realise full potential. Would much, much rather back Overturn each way for Arkle than Simonsig to win
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Reaseheath
Overturn has one stat on his positive side...best hurdler 5/11 season best hurdler has won |
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"Simonsig was impressive but doesn't bend his back as well as Captain Conan and will need to pick up his rear end better to realise full potential"
Steeplechasing, please head to Specsavers for Christmas. The horse jumped flawlessly, and would leave Captain Slowman in his wake in the Arkle. There is a massive gulf in ability between these two horses. 5/2 in a place is more than fair IMO. All about opinions this game, but haven't seen a horse with such a huge level of ability since, well, Sprinter Sacre. Would be extremely surprised if he doesn't stroll to victory in the Arkle. This horse has unbelievable talent. |
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I wouldn't eulogise over this first effort. Whilst it was a better race than the monster won first time up at Donny, it was a public school - he beat nothing, in his own time. It may well be however that he will go into the Arkle without having been tested. Hendo said he would jump better at speed and there is no doubt he would prefer quicker ground. I'm not sure there is a novice chaser in England - including Overturn - who would get him off the bridle. Will McCain take him on before Cheltenham......what do you think?
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