Cheltenham Festival
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Dynaste CANNOT win the RSA Chase
Dynaste CANNOT win the RSA Chase
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Replies: 329
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There are lots of comparisons in fairness,Both Grey,Both decent Hurdlers,Both thrashed by Big Bucks,Both looked world beaters in first couple of chases etc etc
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lets hope they go for the jewsons...is the jewson a grade 1 now?
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He may well stay the RSA trip but he has plenty of toe and I think they will keep their options open, ground dependent. The Arkle wouldn't be a huge surprise and is probably well within his compass if the ground turns up soft.
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would need to be soft,if it were decent ground he would not get near overturn imo
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CheltenhamRoar, i'm aware of the comparisons but fact both are grey is meaningless as concerns their performance and there are plenty of decent hurdlers that start off well over fences...the point i was trying to make was that people are starting to see them as the same horse and thus can only envisage them progressing similarly....to predict Dynaste will get turned over in next season's PP just cos he is grey and was similar hurdler to GC is ridiculous
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Lines up in the Feltham next. No surprise to see him win that but i'd still be against him for March.
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Even if he ran in the Jewson?
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At this stage yeah. Just want to see him under pressure in a race over fences.
The Jewson as a race is not one i'm looking to bet in at the moment though. |
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BTW the horse that fell whilst looking like he would at least give Dynaste a test at Newbury, also runs Kempton on Boxing Day
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Decent price at 14s
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Thanks for the heads up
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PP. Have backed as well. Other bookies are 1/2 the price. Best of luck.
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Yeah so I see and though early days, under 10 on here.
Don't think the price will last so have taken a bit as well. Had no idea the race had been priced up so thanks. |
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1/2 Dynaste. V.Similar prep to Grand Crus last year.
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Looked a weaker renewal of the Feltham than last year but he did it well. Much more athletic horse than Grand Crus - jumped super. Suspect either the RSA or the Jewson is at his mercy.
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Another nail in the Dynaste coffin. Feltham winners have an awful record in the Sun Alliance.
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yeast Joined: 09 Mar 05
Replies: 411 26 Dec 12 14:48 Another nail in the Dynaste coffin. Feltham winners have an awful record in the Sun Alliance. What about horses that jump well and have class, resolution and stamina? |
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Long Run. It ran 15mins ago.
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He'll take all the beating in whichever race he goes for. He's been very impressive this season, in what looks to be a particulalry weak staying novice chasing division.
imo the Jewson has the more strength in depth than the RSA, and he certainly wasn't stopping today. |
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I think this lad MAY buck the trend but granted the stats are there for all too see mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm !
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Stats are an aid to decision making, not a substitute for it.
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Wont get home in RSA. A lay of Grands Crus proportions
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I really like the way Dynaste travels and jumps and I really hope David Pipe remembers (1) how he struggled in March this year to get round 3m at Cheltenham in the World Hurdle and (2) the fact Grands Crus has not been the same horse since running in the RSA in March this year. With this in mind I hope he runs Dynaste in the Jewson in March 2013 on his way to the Gold Cup 2014. Plus of course I have him at 12/1 AP for the Jewson !
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NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP
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the distance is the crucial factor.the horse will be better over shorter but i fear the rsa may become easier to win.conan,unioniste,oscars all heading towards the jewson
the rsa looks poor,boston is a hype horse[if it was still in durham would it have been as short last year?] back in front needs heavy ground,dedigout im notsure of but the rest are poor.. |
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Despite this being my thread, I do like the horse. Had a good bet on him to win the Feltham and was not surprised with how well he won. He is a very good horse. But the whole point of my original post was that the best horse with the highest rating, the highest hurdles rating and this profile gets buried in the RSA Chase despite how far clear of the others they look in the build up. Boxing Day has done nothing to lessen my certainty that he will get turned over in the RSA, in fact to an extent it has enhanced it as, as mentioned above, Feltham winners do not win RSA Chases.
Whilst some on this thread say that some are getting carried away with stats, I would say that people are getting carried away with performances when there is far more to it. Remember this time last year Grands Crus was an RSA certainty after clocking a faster Boxing Day time than the great Kauto Star and was such a good thing the Gold Cup was under consideration. Not even placed come March. Not the same horse Duncan, but almost exactly the same profile, and that's the point. |
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"the fact Grands Crus has not been the same horse since running in the RSA in March this year."
Don't agree. GC was not the same horse WHEN he ran in the RSA. He was never travelling in the race and Scu alluded to this. Comparing him to Dynaste is just wrong. IMO. |
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I would say that people are getting carried away with performances when there is far more to it.
Roger, can you just clarify what you mean by 'far more to it'? |
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sorry, have re-read earlier post....no need
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Joined: 08 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 12,748 | Blogger: duncan idaho's blog
NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP PRESS...DYNASTE IS NOT GRANDS CRUS....STOP Rate reply: | report block user Correct - Dynaste isn't as good as Grands Crus |
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This is just about the strongest stats race at the festival. Some of the strongest one's are:
1. As the OP has already stated: It's a must to stick with the previous season's novice hurdlers. Their record is 17 from the last 20. The other 3 winners were Florida Pearl - didn't even bother hurdling. Hanakham - ptp and Rule Supreme who was a second season novice chaser. 2. The last 49 winners have ran in the same calendar year. An unbelievably strong stat. The last 2 shorties (Rupert and Grands) failed this one. 3. All 18 Feltham winners that have run have been beaten. (recent ones include Long Run and Grands). Strangely beaten horses have a decent record such as Bobs Worth. All we need now is for Pipe to come out and say he's putting him away until March. A biblical lay beckons.  |
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what we really need is a tea-leaf readers forum
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For those that purchased one jump ahead look at the narrative re Dynaste. Whilst they can change their mind I would suggest that there initial thought is that Dynaste would run in the Jewson.
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Obviously there should read their. Sorry about that.
Forty  |
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Yeast - wow - that's one strong stat!!!! come on Pipey - announce its going straight there and we can all retire!!
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Great post yeast - RSA winner is not looking that obvious although I have backed Boston Bob more in hope than expectation
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Any new on whether the horse runs again? All I've read is that "he may be out again before March". Can't remember where I read this though.
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yes indeed the RSA is a cracking trends race and I have made money on it year in year out. Last year I posted Grands Crus as my maximum banker Festival lay and I will be going for it again this year
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Stats are there to be broken, Dynaste is well capable. It`s easy to say lay him. But come up with a form reason this season what he has done Vs his rivals that have ran he is along way clear on that front. I`m not saying I will be backing him at 9/4-5/2, but the reasons saying he won`t win are no facts on this horse.
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I cant be not backing a horse cos hes won a certain race during the season,dont care what stats say.
If Dynaste turns up in the RSA i will either smash ino him,or leave the race alone. Jewson is a bit different,cos it looks like being a lot more competitive. |