good point fg

true and in the comments in running section it only says not fluent at the fifth, he hit a lot of fences and got in close at a few,
if you watch the race again it was as bad as a first time out novice,

strontium

the problem is how do when know when the horse's peak will be?

If I knew that I'd be a millionaire many times over.

I'm reminded of Rumsfeld or Cheney's quote about known unknowns. Allow me a little latitude here because I'm thinking as I'm typing but it strikes me that you have to adapt the supposed Sherlock Holmes doctrine of eliminating what we know cannot be true and eventually what we are left with must be true however illogical (or something like that).

Given we are dealing with an evolving puzzle and cannot deal with absolutes I'd suggest looking at it from the opposite angle and working back. By that I mean look at the horses who put in a stunning display, especially if they do so in a very fast time and ask yourself how likely it is that this performance was that horses peak? Which of course won't mean he won't go on to win a specific future big race because like Kauto he could just be better than his opponents. The point is that his price will almost certainly be shorter than it should be for the latter event because he is being priced up at least to some extent on his likely seasons peak performance. In fact it would be very interesting to see how many horses, especially novices, put in an outstanding performance to then not even make their supposed big event target. I'm reminded of one of Nicholls racing against one of King's ?????Araldur a couple of seasons ago where they blitzed the field and ran a comparable time to the big group 1 (possibly Tingle Creek). Araldur didn't run again that season and the other one tailed off badly and didn't make the festival if memory serves me right. Which may open up another line of inquiry relating to the effect of such performances on horses which haven't reached full maturity.

Anyway I digress:

Outside of that I guess you have to use the tried and tested formula. Use Bob's Worth as an easy example. Festival winning form therefore acts on the course and can peak in the spring. Trainer who loves the festival. Clearly identified target race which was likely to be achievable if things went his way. Therefore it was always going to be reasonable to suppose that the aim would be to peak in March. Nothing can be certain but if you can at least identify when a horse is likely to be aiming to peak you can be theoretically in profit in terms of what price he is based on form and what price he should be based on the likelihood of winning if the theory holds water and the trainer can do his job.

to flush btw


did anyone think that GC win off 126 was a superstar performance ?

did anyone think that GC win off 126 was a superstar performance ?

In terms of being a potential superstar some of us were very taken by his Cleeve performance.

Eternal said, "Given we are dealing with an evolving puzzle and cannot deal with absolutes I'd suggest looking at it from the opposite angle and working back. By that I mean look at the horses who put in a stunning display, especially if they do so in a very fast time and ask yourself how likely it is that this performance was that horses peak? Which of course won't mean he won't go on to win a specific future big race because like Kauto he could just be better than his opponents. The point is that his price will almost certainly be shorter than it should be for the latter event because he is being priced up at least to some extent on his likely seasons peak performance. In fact it would be very interesting to see how many horses, especially novices, put in an outstanding performance to then not even make their supposed big event target."

This should be stamped on the form book.

IB,

As a self-confessed GC fan, I'll answer your Knockara Beau question:

By beating a horse that has consistently shown himself to be a mid to high 140-horse by 10 lengths (and it could have easily been 15) giving him 4lb, with other high 140 and low 150 horses beaten senseless, I think that marked him down as a high 160 horse over hurdles. Given that he did that as a youngster who had just turned six, over three miles at Cheltenham, I don't feel daft for thinking he at least had the potential to be a genuine superstar.

ah but if lucy had been riding him instead of jan it might have been a diminishing length.

But you can't take away the feltham though can you, over that 3 miles on a sharp track he put in a breathtaking jumping and galloping display to beat bw and sc.

GC is class, no-one thinks he ran his race today do they? there's something up with him isn't there?

Ibrahim

There is also his performance in beating Champion Court. Not many horses can hit the ditch at the top of the hill in the way he did that day and still beat as decent a horse as Champion Court going away.

I'm not making excuses for him. We are where we are. My point is that we were where we were.

thanks s

I have a great record in pp, once backed exotic dancer at 500 & 750 to win the kg & the gc. So you can see my passion for the pp winner.

the ground is the key, maybe we can narrow it down tomorrow.

^ I too think there might be something in this.

Saw him also at Aintree before he took on Big Bucks last year and thought he looked slight, withdrawn, depressed and not looking forward to racing at all (depressed sounds crazy I know).

Today's race was pretty attritional, the RSA is always attritional - perhaps he just has n't got the resolve for those types of races anymore.

Wonder what they will do with him now? Maybe he just wasn't suited to a gruelling race - and that's exactly what it was. Read elsewhere that he doesn't shape like a stayer but you needed to be one to win that race yesterday. Fastest run chase of the day on the course, it would have been a real stamina test.

well,it really dont help matters when connections of a horse keep talking it up as the best thing since sliced bread.
People can latch on to that sort of thing and to me this has happened in this case.
That, plus what looked at the time to be an impressive performance beating another couple of novices at Kempton,has put Grand Crus into super hype territory.
It got to the stage that people on here were totally ignoring the RSA, why?? cos of the speak from his trainer and jockey imo,and maybe thinking the Feltham was better than it actually was.Oh it cannot be his running etc!!
ive been saying on various threads that it could be dangerous ignoring the RSA,and unfortunately for so many,thats proved to be the case.

The reality is as a chaser hes won some novice chases,thats it,as have a fair few other horses.

Thats 2 bad runs that were pretty similar,in that he was held up,got into the race,and then folded tamely.
Ive been watching racing a long time now,and in my experience when horses do that twice on the trot,they need to be left alone as a betting proposition.

Someone said on here,maybe he aint as good as people think he is(inc trainer and jockey),and personally i would agree with that.

What happens now?
Well for one thing his connections need to shut up banging on about him.Get him home and try and work out if anything is wrong with him,and start treating him as a normal horse and not the superstar they want!!

Me,well i would not go near 3m again,maybe even drop him back to 2m,but definitely get him out the front and let him bowl along.He needs to enjoy himself,and imo over fences he hates being out the back.

Time will tell as always,and hopefully for the horse,and for us too,he can perform well and start enjoying his job again.

I didn't expect GC to win yesterday, though I would not have been surprised if he had.

On the whole I cannot disagree with what budd has to say other than he was spectacular at Kempton. It wasn't just another novice chase as described, he beat two notable horses very well.

However I agree he needs to be allowed to express himself, he put the pace to the race at Kempton. I don't think it would be a bad idea to run him at 2M but they should definitely forget about the Gold Cup now. If goes to the Festival, has to be the Ryanair imo.

All of the above may irrelevant however as like others have said, he needs a full MOT first

^ The thing is bud, it would have to have been way, way overrated to justify his performances the last twice.

Whether he's a good horse, a very good horse, or a very, very good horse, I don't think there can be much doubt that he has not shown anything near his best the last twice. He needs a solid MOT as suggested above, and let's hope something comes to light!

The weight of money for the horse would suggest he was indeed ready.

Unless it is a breathing issue.

I agree about the choking issue but I'm struggling to see not leading as the issue. He led from the front early in his career and did nothing. His class and enthusiasm has carried him to the front in his most notable victories. It wasn't a case of being allowed to do anything because he carried his jockey into the lead as and when he or the jockey wanted. That is what is missing now. He hasn't raced with that enthusiasm even early in his last two races.

seems like it is a breathing problem 'the last run was too bad to be true , connections seem to still have the king george on their minds ! a lot of horses improve for the operation and he still has time on his side ,but i personally would not be interested in him for the king george as at around 12s on here he has lots of questions to answer .