What's gone wrong with Grands Crus?

Either way he is now for me a watch horse but having backed him for the King George I can't see him either running in it or winning if he does.

That's a thought provoking post Eterenal. Presumably, far, far better was expected of him by his connections given the weight of money today (and earlier in the week). This is a horse that, as a novice chaser, was about 8/1 for the Gold Cup in late February, and which started both the RSA and the Paddy Power as a very well backed favourite. It's all very odd.

could be that he is much better on a flat track ,but the wins at cheltenham hurdles and chase rather dent  that thoery ,could be that when he comes under pressure and is against battlers who can go with him then he is found out ,thought the feltham was interesting as 3 out in the feltham  silvinio made a blunder just as he was about to make a challenge ,bobs worth track wouldnt play to his strengths and mcoy and ruby said if you ran the feltham 100 times it couldnt have been more run to suit grans crus ,maybe flattered ,but that run today is surely not gc true form .

Foyles

Some fair points but if I'm right and Scudamore was squeezing going up the hill on the far side it surely isn't a question of battlers finding him out today but rather the fact that he was struggling to go with a large bunch of them in a handicap which I simply cannot accept is his true form.

yeah eternal just a theory really ,was watching him and al ferof throughout the race and al ferof was always going well and grans crus was also travelling untill going up the hill then just emptied on the way down ,cannot be his true form ,pipes were very confident beforehand and his horses are always primed for this meeting and this race .can only assume flat tracks suit him much better .

Ground today>? Only 6 finishers says how soft it really was

It was deceptively soft, the ground was very wet.

I know they said he lost a shoe today, but I don't think that would explain the run.

I think the ground played a big part, so I'll reserve judgement until after the King George or Hennessey.  I doubt they'll have the Hennesey on their minds now (only 2 weeks away), but if they think it was the ground / shoe, and retain full confidence in his ability, then they still might think he's quite well handicapped at 157.

What's everyones thoughts on the King George.  Would you expect Al Ferof to confirm the form with Grands Crus, or would the return to a flat track and extra 4 furlongs help Grands Crus reverse it?  Most bookies now have AF half the price of GC, but Boyles still have GC 3pts shorter.

you could never write him off he'll be dangerous off 155 soon

i think kempton will suit grans crus better than al ferof but p.nicholls will know better than me ,would have thought silviniarco was more of a kempton horse but they are talking gold cup ,think now something amiss regards grans crus could blame ground today but what about the rsa , trip?

Was more heavy than soft imo and think thats wat was to blame - the 6 finishers today all had heavy ground form

We shall see at Kemtpon

WellC, that's a really tough (and good question). With both horses at their best I'd take GC over AF every time round Kempton - but with a big question mark over GC after his last two runs it's difficult to price up. We also can't take the stable news/vibes as useful clues because they've been so wrong the last two runs.

As for ground and GC, I'm not sure. It clearly was very soft today, but it was pretty soft when he hosed up in the Cleeve. He's also a Dom Alco.

I think people need to accept that the horse isnt as good as they think.

He was an impressive winner of a handicap off 126, then chased home Big Bucks a few times and won a few small field novice races impressively but when he runs in real top class races at real pace he has failed.

BJG - this is a horse who is supposed to stay 3 m (perhaps further) and he stopped after 2 (almost as he did in March on much better ground). I appreciate Scudamore eased him up today the second he began to struggle, but I do still wonder if there's a deeper issue?

Ib - I agree he's not as good as many people think/thought and have been saying so since well before the Festival. But I can't agree with your conclusion that he failed in the Feltham, or that it wasn't run at pace.

The Feltham is hard to work out as he looked so impressive that day but bobs worth didnt run to form, henderson said he wasnt right that day.

Strontium, I agree with your potential hypothesis (that there is a physical issue somewhere).

IB might well be right (I still don't feel ready to accept that though), but however you slide his last two races up, he has been beaten in a few strides at different trips (and on different ground). I have always thought soft ground would not inconvenience him and connections have said the same, so I can't believe that was what was wrong today. If Al Ferof carried more wright round and won so well, I also can't accept that the high weight in the ground was to blame.

As was said earlier in this thread, Grands Crus marked his more impressive performances by tanking into his races and taking the jockey with him. That has been missing the last twice and his sticky jumping (when really good earlier last term) also suggests all might not be right physically. If I didn't know better I would say it's a breathing issue but the confidence in him (from punters and his mega-shrewd stable) the last twice suggests they are as in the dark as the rest of us. I've never even heard them mention that his breathing might be a worry.

Was talking to a friend earlier and he suggested that he'd been overfaced as a youngster and was going a little sour. Even that I find really hard to believe as everything about his demeanour before a race and in the early stages suggests he's still bundling with enthusiasm.

I actually feel more deflated by that performance today than I have by any other in a long time. I love this horse and am convinced he is a real tool, but after those two disappointments and the team at Pond House seemingly mystified, an objective view certainly suggests he is in trouble. It's bad enough when good horses don't get the chance to fulfill their potential due to injuries etc, but when a real bright white prospect fails to hit the target for no obvious reason it's really sickening when you love these horses.

Good post td

Another thing that doesnt help imo is that they ride him like he is a superstar, i dont think he needs holding up as much they did today.

Ib, I'm sure you're right about BobsW in the Feltham + the course apparently doesn't suit + he needed a breathing op. I've been saying since January the Feltham form was overrated so it would be hypocritical of me to change my mind now. Bobs Worth and Silvianco Conti have subsequently "franked" it, but that could just show the danger of relying on collateral form, especially among rapidly improving horses. My view of the Feltham is one reason I was so against Grands Crus for the RSA (and massively so if he ran in the Gold Cup). I was underwhelmed by his race at Newbury against Sonofvic as well. Nevertheless, I'm convinced he ran far, far better in the Feltham than he did today or in the RSA, whatever the absolute merit of the feltham form.

I think that's the one ray of hope I'm still clinging to.

As most of us do from time to time, we overrate our ability in this game and follow horses over cliffs, convinced that we are right about them being stars (when in all probability they're not). But as you say, whether you think the Feltham form was overrated or not, the visual impression, the way the jocks talked about the race, the time, and the collateral form all suggest it was a hugely better performance than what we've seen since.

It is hard to work out, the only thing i can depend on is that bobs worth adores cheltenham.

Im only just realising that kempton and cheltenham are so different but often a kempton winner will do well at cheltenham but that may be down to quality of racing at kempton and the brilliant horses we have seen in the king george and gold cup recently.

I guess Grand Crus needs a crack at the King George.

dad y pipe is a qualified vet  so if their was a physical problem then he would be better qualified than most to suss it out and he has had since last march to investigate but they all seemed bullish and the money was down ante post and pre race ,hard to work out what is wrong ,but i do feel that the feltham run may have been overhyped as silvinio conte hit the 2nd or 3rd last when just about to deliver his challenge and a mistake at that speed took its toll and allowed grans crus to win much easier than he would have if silvinio jumped it  perfectly .they were cutting him back at the finish but the race was as good as over .but as for todays run ?

Ib, the relationship between Cheltenham and Kempton fascinates me. For example the Feltham is a poor trial for the RSA despite, presumably, having the best staying novices in it. On the other hand, over the last dozen or so years, the KG has been by far the best trial for the Gold cup - having been a lousy trial before that. It could be that nowadays the very best staying horses are campaigned exclusively around those two races? it could be that we've had some horses recently who have such absolute class they can handle the two very different courses (kauto, Best Mate, Long Run, See More Business?, Kicking King?) - I'm sure that's true for Kauto with his combination of speed and stamina, less sure for some of the others. Or it could be a statistical blip that will resolve itself over the next 20 years. Someone pointed out to me the other day that Kempton form has carried to Cheltenham much better since all the drainage works at Chelt.

I eventually concluded that it's financial suicide to invest too much emotional capital in a horse especially one with apparently inexplicable failures. Even the great ones can have an off day but there is almost always a valid reason. There isn't in my view in this case. It isn't that unusual for horses displaying top rank form to go off. Remember My Way De Solzen?

Its a really hard one to put your finger on, and all we can do is speculate.

The theories so far are:

The Ground

After the Paddy Power today the ground was officially changed to Soft (Heavy in places), but if we say that the ground overall was Heavy, then this could be part of the explanation.

His race record to date is

Heavy(ish) today 1 run, 0 wins 0% strike rate
Very soft (France) 1 run, 0 wins, 0% strike rate
Soft 4 runs, 1 win, 25% strike rate
Good to Soft 5 runs, 4 wins, 80% strike rate
Good 5 runs, 2 wins, 40% strike rate

Obviously you can't take that at face value, because it depends on opposition, experience, handicap mark etc, but anecdotally it says that he does like good ground, and not a bog like today.  His run in the French Champion Hurdle on Very Soft, he finished down the field (either side of that he'd ran second to Big Bucks on Good to Soft and smashed Champion Court on Good).

Over Raced as a Youngster

I don't think he's been over raced at all, and as Tom said, he doesn't have the demeanour of a horse that is not in love with the game.  He is the same age as Al Ferof and only had 1 more race, and didn't have hustle and bustle of a Champion Bumper to deal with.  Compared to Walkon who finished second today, he has had 6 more races as well as having 18 months off through injury.

Not as Good as we Thought

This too is possible.  There is no doubting at all he is a very good horse, but he largely burst on to the scene because of he took advantage of a very generous handicap rating (similar to Hunt Ball).  There is also his proximity to Big Bucks, but again Big Bucks is a really hard horse to benchmark against because he'll never win a race by 20 lengths.  Therefore, some of his beaten rivals are often given inflated ratings, based on their proximity to him.  However, his pre Christmas RSA form was top notch, and thoroughly deserved favouritism for the RSA imo.  His Feltham win was top class and he beat Champion Court further than Sir Des Champs did (albeit receiving weight).

Physical / Breathing Issue

As a few have said, this has never been mentioned before, but it could be a possibility.  He has gone out like a light in his last two races over varying trips and on varying ground.  I thought he jumped fine in the RSA (from memory) and was going well until turning for home.  He could be unlucky in that he scoped dirty (allegedly) after the RSA and lost a shoe today.  He doesn't appear to be jumping left or right handed like Master Minded when he damaged a rib.

Therefore, I'll wait and see what Pipe says when the dust settles, and will see how he performs in his next race with "Good" in the going description.  Because today was a nothing race for him, we still didn't get to see what his optimum trip was.

strontium, good post but that is why the game so interesting.

I still dont get why newbury is so testing as it rarely has heavy ground but the form holds up at cheltenham like no other, people have told me its because its a galloping track and that hits their stamina.

I do think a jockey like ruby who is light years better than the rest when it comes to tactics and knowing his horse helps.

^ That is true, but there is something about this one that doesn't add up (the sire's progeny tend to go on, he still looks very enthusiastic, stable confidence couldn't be higher etc...).

As for Strontium's point about Kempton and Cheltenham form, I think it's very interesting. A good deal of hurdlers winning or running well at the former go on to Festival glory too (Soldatino, Zarkandar, Menorah, Binocular, Rock On Ruby).

I am personally of the opinion that Kempton is actually not quite as big a speed test as it is often made out to be. Or at least you have to stay very well there to win the top races. Every year we hear the old "if he's going to get three miles, it'll be at Kempton," line, but I don't think that stacks up, especially in red-hot King Georges.

Someone pointed out to me the other day that Kempton form has carried to Cheltenham much better since all the drainage works at Chelt.

I think that was myself and it seems backed up by the stats. In relation to the King George and the Gold Cup and by extension Kempton and Cheltenham I think there are two factors at play. One is the respective differences in the courses which is well documented.

Of equal significance in my personal view is something which is less explored but very interesting. I used to run at a decent level and some of the lads I trained with represented Great Britain. It's a long time ago but our trainer was of the firm view that you trained to reach a peak for a specific time frame and that you could then hold the peak for up to six weeks. The idea was to peak for that seasons big races or be holding a peak for a specific event. I think the idea of peaking is now well established within the sport and indeed within other sports.

I don't think it has been as well researched specifically in relation to the equine world but I think it likely that this will also be the case. In short I doubt there is enough time between Christmas and March for a horse to peak twice. Horses which can run to or in excess of 180 are historically rare but we have had a few in the last decade or so which may be skewing the impression. Even those tend to have one high point in their season. Long Run was imperious in his King George but off the bridle and being left behind at the bottom of the hill in his gold cup. Kauto was often imperious in the King George and comparatively scrambling home in March.

I think those of us who take an interest in the question of why instead of how might use this to our advantage. Grands Crus may have peaked last year at Kempton and Bobs Worth may have been specifically targeted to peak for the race which would more suit him at Cheltenham. Maybe Silvianaco's specific target was always Aintree. Maybe they were three horses of comparable ability on any given day but the big difference relates to when they hit their respective peaks.

What a great fred, im learning so much.

you missed out form wellchief, just click on the horses he beat.

Ok Silvio Conti & Bobs Worths are holes in my point. But for me SC won what has been for a while one of the weakest grade 2's around

Tom - good point about the stamina test Kempton rquires. I think that's because the races there are often run at an end to end gallop - so they do test speed but also stamina.

Eternal - yes, I think it was you who made the drainage point. I wasn't trying to avoid giving credit - I just couldn't remember who'd mentioned it. Your last paragraph is fascinating and could well be right - from the punting point of view (as opposed to the sporting), the problem is how do when know when the horse's peak will be?

I thought Grands Crus was in trouble about 6 or 7 out. He landed flat footed and lost about 2 or 3 lengths. He was niggled slightly and managed to get back on terms, but I wasn't that surprised to see him then in trouble when the race really started. It looked so similar to the RSA.

One possibility is he's soured and doesn't enjoy it anymore when the gun is put to his head. Detroit City, Black Jack Ketchum both just seemed to go from potential world beaters to out of love with the game almost over night.

The ground could be an excuse, but I think most people including myself thought the rain would have been in his favour. The other possibility is he's just not as good as I thought. I think it'll probably take one more race to be sure, but as it stands I think we may have seen the best of him.

excuse my ignorance but sonkos bit about newbury ground being so testing but anyone looked into what the ground is at newbury  or kempton or cheltenham i.e some parts of the country have a heavier clay content than others ,could this affect the performances of horses especially on rain softened ground ?

this is getting far to deep, pardon the pun.

Reading is complete clay and Newbury is all gravel i think. certainly a lot of gravel works in west berkshire and newbury drains very well.

especially in red-hot King Georges.

That's the crucial point in my view. Courses test stamina as is the case with Cheltenham but pace can test it as much if not more so in some instances. King George's and indeed most top class races are truly run affairs where horses who have previously appeared to get a specific distance may appear to not run their race when in reality that distance isn't their optimum in said truly run race.

All in my view of course.

what i mean is newbury soft ground may be the equivellent of heavy ground at say cheltenham  or kempton due to "if any " clingy clay content !

probably correct foyles

when its soft at newbury they get strung out

I think that's an excellent point Eternal - and why it can be very, very hard to judge the quality of small field novice chases and graded hurdles as prep races for the Festival.

An example of where this is relevant is the ryanair, where King George runners have an excellent record (kempton/Cheltenham again) - presumably the hard run 3 m at Kempton is a good test (preparation?) for the hard run, stamina sapping 2 m 5 f at the Festival.

newbury would not be heavier than chepstow , but because its a big track with wide sweeping bends they dont get a chance to take a breather on the bend and then you have the near 5 furlong straight so it takes a horse that really stays.
kempton bends are a bit tighter your not going flat out all the way.

good point fg

I was surprised that scudamore seemed to be at pains to jump him off right out the back today....from that moment he never jumped with any fluency, kept getting in too close and never met anything on a stride.

true and in the comments in running section it only says not fluent at the fifth, he hit a lot of fences and got in close at a few,
if you watch the race again it was as bad as a first time out novice,

I was desperate to lay him for a place after a mile.....it was only the fact that i had him in my ten to follow and being a total mug that stopped me

strontium

the problem is how do when know when the horse's peak will be?

If I knew that I'd be a millionaire many times over.

I'm reminded of Rumsfeld or Cheney's quote about known unknowns. Allow me a little latitude here because I'm thinking as I'm typing but it strikes me that you have to adapt the supposed Sherlock Holmes doctrine of eliminating what we know cannot be true and eventually what we are left with must be true however illogical (or something like that).

Given we are dealing with an evolving puzzle and cannot deal with absolutes I'd suggest looking at it from the opposite angle and working back. By that I mean look at the horses who put in a stunning display, especially if they do so in a very fast time and ask yourself how likely it is that this performance was that horses peak? Which of course won't mean he won't go on to win a specific future big race because like Kauto he could just be better than his opponents. The point is that his price will almost certainly be shorter than it should be for the latter event because he is being priced up at least to some extent on his likely seasons peak performance. In fact it would be very interesting to see how many horses, especially novices, put in an outstanding performance to then not even make their supposed big event target. I'm reminded of one of Nicholls racing against one of King's ?????Araldur a couple of seasons ago where they blitzed the field and ran a comparable time to the big group 1 (possibly Tingle Creek). Araldur didn't run again that season and the other one tailed off badly and didn't make the festival if memory serves me right. Which may open up another line of inquiry relating to the effect of such performances on horses which haven't reached full maturity.

Anyway I digress:

Outside of that I guess you have to use the tried and tested formula. Use Bob's Worth as an easy example. Festival winning form therefore acts on the course and can peak in the spring. Trainer who loves the festival. Clearly identified target race which was likely to be achievable if things went his way. Therefore it was always going to be reasonable to suppose that the aim would be to peak in March. Nothing can be certain but if you can at least identify when a horse is likely to be aiming to peak you can be theoretically in profit in terms of what price he is based on form and what price he should be based on the likelihood of winning if the theory holds water and the trainer can do his job.

cant have that, i think i can add you to GC fan club.

He didnt jump brilliantly but you knew that before the race.

to flush btw


did anyone think that GC win off 126 was a superstar performance ?

Nothing can be certain but if you can at least identify when a horse is likely to be aiming to peak you can be theoretically in profit in terms of what price he is based on form and what price he should be based on the likelihood of winning if the theory holds water and the trainer can do his job.

At first glance this seems an absurd comment. Aren't they all aiming to peak for Cheltenham?

The festival seems to grow by the year but we forget at out peril that there can only be one winner of each race and that there are a lot of very nice prices to be won elsewhere. A bird in the hand.......

There's also the fact that there are trainers and there are trainers.

There is also the fact that even machines break down and when dealing with any animal there are no absolutes.

did anyone think that GC win off 126 was a superstar performance ?

In terms of being a potential superstar some of us were very taken by his Cleeve performance.

so where do rate Knockara Beau on this chain of brilliance

(this is all aftertiming btw)

Eternal said, "Given we are dealing with an evolving puzzle and cannot deal with absolutes I'd suggest looking at it from the opposite angle and working back. By that I mean look at the horses who put in a stunning display, especially if they do so in a very fast time and ask yourself how likely it is that this performance was that horses peak? Which of course won't mean he won't go on to win a specific future big race because like Kauto he could just be better than his opponents. The point is that his price will almost certainly be shorter than it should be for the latter event because he is being priced up at least to some extent on his likely seasons peak performance. In fact it would be very interesting to see how many horses, especially novices, put in an outstanding performance to then not even make their supposed big event target."

This should be stamped on the form book.

slow run small field novice races ,which is often the case are run totally different from large field handicaps,
this is often why second season chasers stuggle ,the pace of the race is totally different.
they dont et a chance to fill their lungs there is no space at the fences and it takes some of them time to adapt ,some dont.

IB,

As a self-confessed GC fan, I'll answer your Knockara Beau question:

By beating a horse that has consistently shown himself to be a mid to high 140-horse by 10 lengths (and it could have easily been 15) giving him 4lb, with other high 140 and low 150 horses beaten senseless, I think that marked him down as a high 160 horse over hurdles. Given that he did that as a youngster who had just turned six, over three miles at Cheltenham, I don't feel daft for thinking he at least had the potential to be a genuine superstar.

And hopefully he still does

ah but if lucy had been riding him instead of jan it might have been a diminishing length.

Maybe tom.

I have followed Knockara Beau over a cliff, didnt back him lto.

Winning a handicap off 126 then winning probably the worst cleeve hurdle ever witnessed is with hindsight is why we are where we are.

Just to be clear is was caught up with the hype re GC, but when you click and look at what he actually beat it isnt all that.

you take away the feltham then................

But you can't take away the feltham though can you, over that 3 miles on a sharp track he put in a breathtaking jumping and galloping display to beat bw and sc.

GC is class, no-one thinks he ran his race today do they? there's something up with him isn't there?

who do fancy in the greatwood trial strontium ?

I think 151 is too high, i had my biggest ever bet when ROR ran off 146 at newbury when he running against sellers so 151 isnt that silly.

Was going to back Prospect Wells on g/s

any heavy ground horses i should add

Ibrahim

There is also his performance in beating Champion Court. Not many horses can hit the ditch at the top of the hill in the way he did that day and still beat as decent a horse as Champion Court going away.

I'm not making excuses for him. We are where we are. My point is that we were where we were.

Do you mean tomorrow Ib? I'm stumped - I liked Domination and Dark Lover before the ground went and I don't have much of a feel for which of the rest like it very soft. I might have a punt on Snap Tie - he won on heavy at Punchestown in spring and he's got great course form, but the weight could be a killer.

thanks s

I have a great record in pp, once backed exotic dancer at 500 & 750 to win the kg & the gc. So you can see my passion for the pp winner.

the ground is the key, maybe we can narrow it down tomorrow.

When I saw Grands Crus at Aintree when he was running against Big Bucks I was surprised at how poor he looked and that the tough races were taking it out of him.
My theory is that none of these staying hurdlers that have fought against Big Bucks are able to go on be it that they are simply not good enough and Big Bucks is overrated(seems ridiculous)or that the races damage them.

Someone posted about Detroit City falling out of love with the game, he went on to have a heart attack at Ascot so There was a possibility of an issue with him.

^ I too think there might be something in this.

Saw him also at Aintree before he took on Big Bucks last year and thought he looked slight, withdrawn, depressed and not looking forward to racing at all (depressed sounds crazy I know).

Today's race was pretty attritional, the RSA is always attritional - perhaps he just has n't got the resolve for those types of races anymore.

The only problem with this theory is that in talking about a horse being slight, withdrawn and even depressed, these are quite stark negatives that are quite clear upon a simple viewing of the horse without the need for it to race to highlight the problem. If these frailties were present it would be hard for a trainer to be under the opinion that his horse is fighting fit and ready to perform, in fact it would be hard to imagine it being at the races in the first place.

Wonder what they will do with him now? Maybe he just wasn't suited to a gruelling race - and that's exactly what it was. Read elsewhere that he doesn't shape like a stayer but you needed to be one to win that race yesterday. Fastest run chase of the day on the course, it would have been a real stamina test.

Steamship and Rease - interesting comments - Francome was very negative about GC's paddock appearence on C4 yesterday before the race (and said similar things about him looking slight and poor).

well,it really dont help matters when connections of a horse keep talking it up as the best thing since sliced bread.
People can latch on to that sort of thing and to me this has happened in this case.
That, plus what looked at the time to be an impressive performance beating another couple of novices at Kempton,has put Grand Crus into super hype territory.
It got to the stage that people on here were totally ignoring the RSA, why?? cos of the speak from his trainer and jockey imo,and maybe thinking the Feltham was better than it actually was.Oh it cannot be his running etc!!
ive been saying on various threads that it could be dangerous ignoring the RSA,and unfortunately for so many,thats proved to be the case.

The reality is as a chaser hes won some novice chases,thats it,as have a fair few other horses.

Thats 2 bad runs that were pretty similar,in that he was held up,got into the race,and then folded tamely.
Ive been watching racing a long time now,and in my experience when horses do that twice on the trot,they need to be left alone as a betting proposition.

Someone said on here,maybe he aint as good as people think he is(inc trainer and jockey),and personally i would agree with that.

What happens now?
Well for one thing his connections need to shut up banging on about him.Get him home and try and work out if anything is wrong with him,and start treating him as a normal horse and not the superstar they want!!

Me,well i would not go near 3m again,maybe even drop him back to 2m,but definitely get him out the front and let him bowl along.He needs to enjoy himself,and imo over fences he hates being out the back.

Time will tell as always,and hopefully for the horse,and for us too,he can perform well and start enjoying his job again.

If he was a good thing at 2/1 over wrong trip and ground then he could be an amazing thing at 16s or whatever for the Hennessey. Good little prep that was!

I didn't expect GC to win yesterday, though I would not have been surprised if he had.

On the whole I cannot disagree with what budd has to say other than he was spectacular at Kempton. It wasn't just another novice chase as described, he beat two notable horses very well.

However I agree he needs to be allowed to express himself, he put the pace to the race at Kempton. I don't think it would be a bad idea to run him at 2M but they should definitely forget about the Gold Cup now. If goes to the Festival, has to be the Ryanair imo.

All of the above may irrelevant however as like others have said, he needs a full MOT first

Yes he did look good at Kempton,but you wont see Bobsworth there again which tells its own story,and SC at the time or indeed during the season werent a top novice imo.
Its my feeling that the Feltham was overrated by many.

^ The thing is bud, it would have to have been way, way overrated to justify his performances the last twice.

Whether he's a good horse, a very good horse, or a very, very good horse, I don't think there can be much doubt that he has not shown anything near his best the last twice. He needs a solid MOT as suggested above, and let's hope something comes to light!

I get the feeling Al Ferof although a delayed prep, was readied for the race much more than Grand Cru. People forget Long Run failed to land this really tough Handicap, then look what he went on to do, all be it against some aging horses. Its only one race and there's plenty more battles to come. Lets see how the horses fair in the King George when they're well and truely fit. Don't think either of them will win the King George though tbh, Nicholls has a better chance and Grand Cru won't be good enough, the same as Time for rupert wasn't good enough going chasing and the same as dynaste won't be good enough next year. Running behind Big Bucks aint what it seems imo.

The weight of money for the horse would suggest he was indeed ready.

Weight of money and Francome who may not be the best form judge but should be able to tell you if a horse is ready said he looked very fit.

I've had a good look at the race and my opinion only gets firmer that something must be amiss with the horse. In my view he didn't empty because his stamina gave out. He went out like somebody had flicked a switch. Jumping the third last he is bang in contention but within a few strides Scudamore gets after him with the stick and there is absolutely no response. At this point he is still in front of Walkon. He continues to niggle the horse for another 20 strides or so and then he drops his hands. At this point Walkon must have taken 10 lengths out of him. All running downhill.

I fear there may be no way back for the horse.

Unless it is a breathing issue.

He was never going though was he, not like the classic choker....cruise,cruise,cruise,empty, he was being niggled, getting in tight from the off...i'd subscribe more to the theory that he sulks when not being allowed to lead, his best performances have been from the moment he hits the front.

I agree about the choking issue but I'm struggling to see not leading as the issue. He led from the front early in his career and did nothing. His class and enthusiasm has carried him to the front in his most notable victories. It wasn't a case of being allowed to do anything because he carried his jockey into the lead as and when he or the jockey wanted. That is what is missing now. He hasn't raced with that enthusiasm even early in his last two races.

Grands Crus is facing a breathing operation before he can return to action, trainer David Pipe has confirmed.
The six-year-old, 7-4 favourite in Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup, was pulled up before the second-last fence by jockey Tom Scudamore after travelling well on the heels of eventual winner Al Ferof.

Yesterday Pipe, who otherwise enjoyed a good Cheltenham Open meeting with four winners, said: 'Grands Crus was scoped this morning and there seems to be a breathing issue. We are looking at a cauterising procedure.'
That treatment, which affects the soft palate, is normally not a major operation and Grands Crus still should have a chance of making the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, for which he is 12-1.

seems like it is a breathing problem 'the last run was too bad to be true , connections seem to still have the king george on their minds ! a lot of horses improve for the operation and he still has time on his side ,but i personally would not be interested in him for the king george as at around 12s on here he has lots of questions to answer .

It has to be physical - there can be no other reason.

That was a season wrecking performance and the only hope for him now is a break then back in Feb for a prep  - then Ryanair then Aintree.

The six-year-old, 7-4 favourite in Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup, was pulled up before the second-last fence by jockey Tom Scudamore after travelling well on the heels of eventual winner Al Ferof.

i missed that bit

Indeed. The commentator must have misled a lot of people with his comments in running.

Hope he gets to the KG, but only if he's fully fit mind.

Sometimes breathing ops can be done under sedation, rather than anaesthetic, depending on the procedure followed. This would mean less training time lost.

At least we seem to have a reason for his disappointing performance.

Did they not test him after the RSA??
That was disappointing as well.

Cannot thinking that this is a simply default reaction - must be his breathing. I could accept it more in the RSA as he finished weakly but in the PP he stopped much earlier. He needs time and a proper MOT/evaluation.

Unfortunately I take this as the Pipes rushing to get him to Kempton and that really could be end for him. If he is the quality horse they think he is, then treat him like one not a handicapper.

Yes, I've been reading up on breathing ops.

He'd not be running on Boxing Day if he were mine.

Well, as a big fan, I'll give him one more chance after the op, and think 12s is fair enough. He's either being hampered by his breathing or he's not, so it's reasonable to think the op will either make a big difference or none at all. Given my belief that he is a very good horse, I'll take a chance at the price if he does line up.

It sounds crazy put I see parallels with the running of One Man.  This horse was consistently campaigned as an out and out stayer but in a strongly run race races at Chelts, never performed.  Perhaps a frop back in trip in a strongly run race may perk him up a bit.

One Man travelled sweetly in the gold cup till he hit the final hill and the petrol gauge ran empty. He was totally consistent. In top class he just got 3 miles and travelled supremely until just before that point.

From relatively early Grands Crus was being asked to close up and by not much after two miles he was totally spent whilst still running downhill in a handicap getting weight off the winner.

I think there is definitely a case for suggesting that he won't get the gold cup trip. I'm not sure you could use the trip as any excuse for his flop in the PP.

grands crus wouldn't be facing ask tom in the queen mum though would he.

Grands Crus says "Ask Tom: , Sprinter Sacre:."

The David Pipe-trained grey was pulled up as the 7/4 favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his return at Cheltenham, but has since undergone a wind operation.

Pipe said Grands Crus, who won the Grade One Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day last season, is making good progress and remains in contention for the King George.
Grands Crus still in King George frame


Grands Crus could still run in the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
"Leading wind specialist Geoff Lane found a problem and he has since had a minor corrective procedure," the Pond House handler told his website, www.davidpipe.com.

"He is progressing well and there is still a chance that he will make the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, although we will give him all the time he needs.

"He is far too good a horse to risk bringing back too quickly, so we will just let him tell us when he is ready."

In BALLS DEEP on Grands Crus for the KG. Fingers crossed he makes it, as this race should be his GOLD CUP. What do people think of his Feltham beating of SC now? A fluke, or has SC improved significantly or has GC regressed

Thought Grand Cru's feltham effort was one of the top performances by any chaser in he UK  and Ireland last season.
Willing to forgive one poor performance ,but the second one was the nail in the coffin for this horse imo.
Pipe reckoned that Grand Cru's had strengthed up since last year prior to the PP ,but to my eye he looked like he had lost
condition (something one or two other paddock judges commented on) and he looks on the decline.
Send most horse's of Grand Cru's age to a wind specialist and they'll probably find a breathing problem on some level.
The question is on what level was his breathing a problem. Martin Pipe was an expert at bringing horses back from injury and illness
his son unfortunatly doesn't seem to have the same ability.

Surely he stopped far too early and quickly for it to be simply be a breathing problem?

I'm sorry stake but if the horse that won the Feltham is to come back,  I think he'll need more time.

Stake

I share tinkler's view that even looking on the TV, GC's condition didn't look great. He looked very light. Francome also commented on this. I think he hammered them on merit last year but that was last year and I didn't think Kempton suited either SC or BW. I don't think he can win the King George. Obviously I hope I am wrong because I've backed him ante post but I think Long Run remains the one to beat in that race.

RP 1/1/12
D.Pipe "Grands Crus is having an easy time at present,just walking, but he seems fine after his operation"

Grands Crus is not a true stayer OVER FENCES which as we all know is completely different to a stayer over hurdles that take less energy from a horse.

In addition he isnt even a speed stayer OVER FENCES at 3m unless the ground is fast. Slowish ground at shorter trips off a strong pace find him out as the Paddy Power showed. No amount of breathing operations are going to fix these things.

.. in top class races.

The Feltham is a negative on a prospective top class stayers CV and connections are far from the best at producing top class staying chasers with years gone by including the fathers reign there is not much on the table without the handicap glory. Carvills Hill by far their best but inherited from Ireland and flawed they couldnt fix his jumping and Gloria Victis unfortunate then there were overhyped Therealbandit and others that couldnt reach the mark.

Grands Crus travelled a lot better today, but after that race it has to be the Ryanair for him.

He's 10/1 with Hills to win any race at the Festival, whereas most bookies go 8/1 for the Ryanair alone.

Did make me laugh when he kept getting referred to as the best horse in the race beforehand.

Yeah I clocked that too and thought 'wtf?'

Would be interested in his price for his next race. Wouldn't surprise me if he goes straight to Cheltenham now.

I still think there's more to come from this horse. Hopefully the breathing problem is resolved now and he can get used to the effects of the op. Don't think he's looked in the best condition the last couple of times I've seen him which is unusual for a Pipe horse as he usually has them super fit.

With Big Bucks out, surely back the stayers hurdle is the best option.