Cheltenham Festival
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In his last two races Grands Crus hit the wall at the top of the Chletenham hill abut half a mile from the finish. He's looked a shadw of the horse that won the Feltham, the Cleeve and pushed Big Buck's.
What do you think has gone worng with him? Nothing (genuine excuses both times?); Breathing?; Bottomed in the Feltham? Something else?
Help us solve a mystery!
What do you think has gone worng with him? Nothing (genuine excuses both times?); Breathing?; Bottomed in the Feltham? Something else?
Help us solve a mystery!
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did not jump and hit a lot of fences today.
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I don't think it was the Feltham. Out of him, Bob's Worth and Silvianaco he had the easiest race having put the race to bed some way out. I think it unusual that he didn't have a race between the Feltham and Cheltenham having been given entries in January. Pipe said the only time he truly had the horse right last season was in the run up to the Feltham.
I thought he was squeezing going up the hill and worked quite hard to get to them coming down the hill which is very unusual for the horse who usually takes a fierce hold and carries the jockey into the race. Given his Feltham win and his class over hurdles I can't have it that he just isn't that good. I think he is or has been. The stable is in good form. He doesn't have that many miles on the clock and horses out of that sire tend to get better with age. My guess is that something might be hurting him which is why in his last two races he hasn't raced quite as enthusiastically as previously. |
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Either way he is now for me a watch horse but having backed him for the King George I can't see him either running in it or winning if he does.
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That's a thought provoking post Eterenal. Presumably, far, far better was expected of him by his connections given the weight of money today (and earlier in the week). This is a horse that, as a novice chaser, was about 8/1 for the Gold Cup in late February, and which started both the RSA and the Paddy Power as a very well backed favourite. It's all very odd.
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could be that he is much better on a flat track ,but the wins at cheltenham hurdles and chase rather dent that thoery ,could be that when he comes under pressure and is against battlers who can go with him then he is found out ,thought the feltham was interesting as 3 out in the feltham silvinio made a blunder just as he was about to make a challenge ,bobs worth track wouldnt play to his strengths and mcoy and ruby said if you ran the feltham 100 times it couldnt have been more run to suit grans crus ,maybe flattered ,but that run today is surely not gc true form .
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Foyles
Some fair points but if I'm right and Scudamore was squeezing going up the hill on the far side it surely isn't a question of battlers finding him out today but rather the fact that he was struggling to go with a large bunch of them in a handicap which I simply cannot accept is his true form. |
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yeah eternal just a theory really ,was watching him and al ferof throughout the race and al ferof was always going well and grans crus was also travelling untill going up the hill then just emptied on the way down ,cannot be his true form ,pipes were very confident beforehand and his horses are always primed for this meeting and this race .can only assume flat tracks suit him much better .
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Ground today>? Only 6 finishers says how soft it really was
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It was deceptively soft, the ground was very wet.
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I know they said he lost a shoe today, but I don't think that would explain the run.
I think the ground played a big part, so I'll reserve judgement until after the King George or Hennessey. I doubt they'll have the Hennesey on their minds now (only 2 weeks away), but if they think it was the ground / shoe, and retain full confidence in his ability, then they still might think he's quite well handicapped at 157. What's everyones thoughts on the King George. Would you expect Al Ferof to confirm the form with Grands Crus, or would the return to a flat track and extra 4 furlongs help Grands Crus reverse it? Most bookies now have AF half the price of GC, but Boyles still have GC 3pts shorter. |
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you could never write him off he'll be dangerous off 155 soon
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i think kempton will suit grans crus better than al ferof but p.nicholls will know better than me ,would have thought silviniarco was more of a kempton horse but they are talking gold cup ,think now something amiss regards grans crus could blame ground today but what about the rsa , trip?
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Was more heavy than soft imo and think thats wat was to blame - the 6 finishers today all had heavy ground form
We shall see at Kemtpon |
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WellC, that's a really tough (and good question). With both horses at their best I'd take GC over AF every time round Kempton - but with a big question mark over GC after his last two runs it's difficult to price up. We also can't take the stable news/vibes as useful clues because they've been so wrong the last two runs.
As for ground and GC, I'm not sure. It clearly was very soft today, but it was pretty soft when he hosed up in the Cleeve. He's also a Dom Alco. |
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I think people need to accept that the horse isnt as good as they think.
He was an impressive winner of a handicap off 126, then chased home Big Bucks a few times and won a few small field novice races impressively but when he runs in real top class races at real pace he has failed. |
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BJG - this is a horse who is supposed to stay 3 m (perhaps further) and he stopped after 2 (almost as he did in March on much better ground). I appreciate Scudamore eased him up today the second he began to struggle, but I do still wonder if there's a deeper issue?
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Ib - I agree he's not as good as many people think/thought and have been saying so since well before the Festival. But I can't agree with your conclusion that he failed in the Feltham, or that it wasn't run at pace.
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The Feltham is hard to work out as he looked so impressive that day but bobs worth didnt run to form, henderson said he wasnt right that day.
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Strontium, I agree with your potential hypothesis (that there is a physical issue somewhere).
IB might well be right (I still don't feel ready to accept that though), but however you slide his last two races up, he has been beaten in a few strides at different trips (and on different ground). I have always thought soft ground would not inconvenience him and connections have said the same, so I can't believe that was what was wrong today. If Al Ferof carried more wright round and won so well, I also can't accept that the high weight in the ground was to blame. As was said earlier in this thread, Grands Crus marked his more impressive performances by tanking into his races and taking the jockey with him. That has been missing the last twice and his sticky jumping (when really good earlier last term) also suggests all might not be right physically. If I didn't know better I would say it's a breathing issue but the confidence in him (from punters and his mega-shrewd stable) the last twice suggests they are as in the dark as the rest of us. I've never even heard them mention that his breathing might be a worry. Was talking to a friend earlier and he suggested that he'd been overfaced as a youngster and was going a little sour. Even that I find really hard to believe as everything about his demeanour before a race and in the early stages suggests he's still bundling with enthusiasm. I actually feel more deflated by that performance today than I have by any other in a long time. I love this horse and am convinced he is a real tool, but after those two disappointments and the team at Pond House seemingly mystified, an objective view certainly suggests he is in trouble. It's bad enough when good horses don't get the chance to fulfill their potential due to injuries etc, but when a real bright white prospect fails to hit the target for no obvious reason it's really sickening when you love these horses. |
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Good post td
Another thing that doesnt help imo is that they ride him like he is a superstar, i dont think he needs holding up as much they did today. |
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Ib, I'm sure you're right about BobsW in the Feltham + the course apparently doesn't suit + he needed a breathing op. I've been saying since January the Feltham form was overrated so it would be hypocritical of me to change my mind now. Bobs Worth and Silvianco Conti have subsequently "franked" it, but that could just show the danger of relying on collateral form, especially among rapidly improving horses. My view of the Feltham is one reason I was so against Grands Crus for the RSA (and massively so if he ran in the Gold Cup). I was underwhelmed by his race at Newbury against Sonofvic as well. Nevertheless, I'm convinced he ran far, far better in the Feltham than he did today or in the RSA, whatever the absolute merit of the feltham form.
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I think that's the one ray of hope I'm still clinging to.
As most of us do from time to time, we overrate our ability in this game and follow horses over cliffs, convinced that we are right about them being stars (when in all probability they're not). But as you say, whether you think the Feltham form was overrated or not, the visual impression, the way the jocks talked about the race, the time, and the collateral form all suggest it was a hugely better performance than what we've seen since. |
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It is hard to work out, the only thing i can depend on is that bobs worth adores cheltenham.
Im only just realising that kempton and cheltenham are so different but often a kempton winner will do well at cheltenham but that may be down to quality of racing at kempton and the brilliant horses we have seen in the king george and gold cup recently. I guess Grand Crus needs a crack at the King George. |
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dad y pipe is a qualified vet so if their was a physical problem then he would be better qualified than most to suss it out and he has had since last march to investigate but they all seemed bullish and the money was down ante post and pre race ,hard to work out what is wrong ,but i do feel that the feltham run may have been overhyped as silvinio conte hit the 2nd or 3rd last when just about to deliver his challenge and a mistake at that speed took its toll and allowed grans crus to win much easier than he would have if silvinio jumped it perfectly .they were cutting him back at the finish but the race was as good as over .but as for todays run ?
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Ib, the relationship between Cheltenham and Kempton fascinates me. For example the Feltham is a poor trial for the RSA despite, presumably, having the best staying novices in it. On the other hand, over the last dozen or so years, the KG has been by far the best trial for the Gold cup - having been a lousy trial before that. It could be that nowadays the very best staying horses are campaigned exclusively around those two races? it could be that we've had some horses recently who have such absolute class they can handle the two very different courses (kauto, Best Mate, Long Run, See More Business?, Kicking King?) - I'm sure that's true for Kauto with his combination of speed and stamina, less sure for some of the others. Or it could be a statistical blip that will resolve itself over the next 20 years. Someone pointed out to me the other day that Kempton form has carried to Cheltenham much better since all the drainage works at Chelt.
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I eventually concluded that it's financial suicide to invest too much emotional capital in a horse especially one with apparently inexplicable failures.
 Even the great ones can have an off day but there is almost always a valid reason. There isn't in my view in this case. It isn't that unusual for horses displaying top rank form to go off. Remember My Way De Solzen? |
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Its a really hard one to put your finger on, and all we can do is speculate.
The theories so far are: The Ground After the Paddy Power today the ground was officially changed to Soft (Heavy in places), but if we say that the ground overall was Heavy, then this could be part of the explanation. His race record to date is Heavy(ish) today 1 run, 0 wins 0% strike rate Very soft (France) 1 run, 0 wins, 0% strike rate Soft 4 runs, 1 win, 25% strike rate Good to Soft 5 runs, 4 wins, 80% strike rate Good 5 runs, 2 wins, 40% strike rate Obviously you can't take that at face value, because it depends on opposition, experience, handicap mark etc, but anecdotally it says that he does like good ground, and not a bog like today. His run in the French Champion Hurdle on Very Soft, he finished down the field (either side of that he'd ran second to Big Bucks on Good to Soft and smashed Champion Court on Good). Over Raced as a Youngster I don't think he's been over raced at all, and as Tom said, he doesn't have the demeanour of a horse that is not in love with the game. He is the same age as Al Ferof and only had 1 more race, and didn't have hustle and bustle of a Champion Bumper to deal with. Compared to Walkon who finished second today, he has had 6 more races as well as having 18 months off through injury. Not as Good as we Thought This too is possible. There is no doubting at all he is a very good horse, but he largely burst on to the scene because of he took advantage of a very generous handicap rating (similar to Hunt Ball). There is also his proximity to Big Bucks, but again Big Bucks is a really hard horse to benchmark against because he'll never win a race by 20 lengths. Therefore, some of his beaten rivals are often given inflated ratings, based on their proximity to him. However, his pre Christmas RSA form was top notch, and thoroughly deserved favouritism for the RSA imo. His Feltham win was top class and he beat Champion Court further than Sir Des Champs did (albeit receiving weight). Physical / Breathing Issue As a few have said, this has never been mentioned before, but it could be a possibility. He has gone out like a light in his last two races over varying trips and on varying ground. I thought he jumped fine in the RSA (from memory) and was going well until turning for home. He could be unlucky in that he scoped dirty (allegedly) after the RSA and lost a shoe today. He doesn't appear to be jumping left or right handed like Master Minded when he damaged a rib. Therefore, I'll wait and see what Pipe says when the dust settles, and will see how he performs in his next race with "Good" in the going description. Because today was a nothing race for him, we still didn't get to see what his optimum trip was. |
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strontium, good post but that is why the game so interesting.
I still dont get why newbury is so testing as it rarely has heavy ground but the form holds up at cheltenham like no other, people have told me its because its a galloping track and that hits their stamina. I do think a jockey like ruby who is light years better than the rest when it comes to tactics and knowing his horse helps. |
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^ That is true, but there is something about this one that doesn't add up (the sire's progeny tend to go on, he still looks very enthusiastic, stable confidence couldn't be higher etc...).
As for Strontium's point about Kempton and Cheltenham form, I think it's very interesting. A good deal of hurdlers winning or running well at the former go on to Festival glory too (Soldatino, Zarkandar, Menorah, Binocular, Rock On Ruby). I am personally of the opinion that Kempton is actually not quite as big a speed test as it is often made out to be. Or at least you have to stay very well there to win the top races. Every year we hear the old "if he's going to get three miles, it'll be at Kempton," line, but I don't think that stacks up, especially in red-hot King Georges. |
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Someone pointed out to me the other day that Kempton form has carried to Cheltenham much better since all the drainage works at Chelt.
I think that was myself and it seems backed up by the stats. In relation to the King George and the Gold Cup and by extension Kempton and Cheltenham I think there are two factors at play. One is the respective differences in the courses which is well documented. Of equal significance in my personal view is something which is less explored but very interesting. I used to run at a decent level and some of the lads I trained with represented Great Britain. It's a long time ago but our trainer was of the firm view that you trained to reach a peak for a specific time frame and that you could then hold the peak for up to six weeks. The idea was to peak for that seasons big races or be holding a peak for a specific event. I think the idea of peaking is now well established within the sport and indeed within other sports. I don't think it has been as well researched specifically in relation to the equine world but I think it likely that this will also be the case. In short I doubt there is enough time between Christmas and March for a horse to peak twice. Horses which can run to or in excess of 180 are historically rare but we have had a few in the last decade or so which may be skewing the impression. Even those tend to have one high point in their season. Long Run was imperious in his King George but off the bridle and being left behind at the bottom of the hill in his gold cup. Kauto was often imperious in the King George and comparatively scrambling home in March. I think those of us who take an interest in the question of why instead of how might use this to our advantage. Grands Crus may have peaked last year at Kempton and Bobs Worth may have been specifically targeted to peak for the race which would more suit him at Cheltenham. Maybe Silvianaco's specific target was always Aintree. Maybe they were three horses of comparable ability on any given day but the big difference relates to when they hit their respective peaks. |
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What a great fred, im learning so much.
you missed out form wellchief, just click on the horses he beat. Ok Silvio Conti & Bobs Worths are holes in my point. But for me SC won what has been for a while one of the weakest grade 2's around |
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Tom - good point about the stamina test Kempton rquires. I think that's because the races there are often run at an end to end gallop - so they do test speed but also stamina.
Eternal - yes, I think it was you who made the drainage point. I wasn't trying to avoid giving credit - I just couldn't remember who'd mentioned it. Your last paragraph is fascinating and could well be right - from the punting point of view (as opposed to the sporting), the problem is how do when know when the horse's peak will be? |
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I thought Grands Crus was in trouble about 6 or 7 out. He landed flat footed and lost about 2 or 3 lengths. He was niggled slightly and managed to get back on terms, but I wasn't that surprised to see him then in trouble when the race really started. It looked so similar to the RSA.
One possibility is he's soured and doesn't enjoy it anymore when the gun is put to his head. Detroit City, Black Jack Ketchum both just seemed to go from potential world beaters to out of love with the game almost over night. The ground could be an excuse, but I think most people including myself thought the rain would have been in his favour. The other possibility is he's just not as good as I thought. I think it'll probably take one more race to be sure, but as it stands I think we may have seen the best of him. |
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excuse my ignorance but sonkos bit about newbury ground being so testing but anyone looked into what the ground is at newbury or kempton or cheltenham i.e some parts of the country have a heavier clay content than others ,could this affect the performances of horses especially on rain softened ground ?
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this is getting far to deep, pardon the pun.
Reading is complete clay and Newbury is all gravel i think. certainly a lot of gravel works in west berkshire and newbury drains very well. |
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especially in red-hot King Georges.
That's the crucial point in my view. Courses test stamina as is the case with Cheltenham but pace can test it as much if not more so in some instances. King George's and indeed most top class races are truly run affairs where horses who have previously appeared to get a specific distance may appear to not run their race when in reality that distance isn't their optimum in said truly run race. All in my view of course. |
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what i mean is newbury soft ground may be the equivellent of heavy ground at say cheltenham or kempton due to "if any " clingy clay content !
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probably correct foyles
when its soft at newbury they get strung out |
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I think that's an excellent point Eternal - and why it can be very, very hard to judge the quality of small field novice chases and graded hurdles as prep races for the Festival.
An example of where this is relevant is the ryanair, where King George runners have an excellent record (kempton/Cheltenham again) - presumably the hard run 3 m at Kempton is a good test (preparation?) for the hard run, stamina sapping 2 m 5 f at the Festival. |