Saver material for me if he runs and the ground's right.

Diamond Harry is interesitng off his mark if it's his reappearence race.

Others may follow once I've got my bets on

Ah,Diamond Harry,the horse that can do no wrong.

Has their ever been a more hyped horse?

Cheeky

Autumn, flat track, soft ground, first time out is when he's at his best though - I understand why people are keen on him for the Charlie Hall (which doesn't look a very strong race).

I'd consider backing him first time out in the Hennessey off 151 at a price.

His Hennessey win was pretty good - he beat the all time great Denman by a long way (getting lumps of weight) and beat the very decent Burton Port off levels.

The question for me is whether the injury he then sustained finished him off. I suspect it probably did, but I would be prepared to give him one more chance at the right price.

I won't back him on Saturday and I won't back him at Newbury unless it's his first run of the season.

That's pretty much the way I see it, assuming a decent price at Newbury.

Diamond Harry not declared at Wetherby after suffering a minor setback [SHOCK!]. May go to Wincanton next week or straight to the Hennessey (or, presumably, neither as and when he has a couple more minor setbacks).

Hennessy Weights.


NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
2/242-    Burton Port233    8    11-12    Nicky Henderson         166    160    173
2541-1    Tidal Bay28    11    11-12    Paul Nicholls         166    146    172
13PF-    Weird Al231    9    11-10    Donald McCain         164    —    —
72142-    The Giant Bolster260    7    11-10    David Bridgwater         164    166    176
27F7-1    Kauto Stone28    6    11-8    Paul Nicholls         162    118    172
2887-1    Roberto Goldback28    10    11-8    Nicky Henderson         162    129    168
1321-    Bobs Worth262      7    11-6    Nicky Henderson         160    163    174
223-42    First Lieutenant28    7    11-5    M F Morris         159    149    174
85110-    Calgary Bay231    9    11-4    Mick Channon         158    152    171
11P2-1    Cristal Bonus28    6    11-3    Paul Nicholls         157    142    168
61114-    Grands Crus262      7    11-3    David Pipe         157    170    179
21/46-    Ballabriggs231    11    11-2    Donald McCain         156    169    170
5145-4    Time For Rupert28      8    11-1    Paul Webber         155    170    177
82FP-    Junior224    9    11-1    David Pipe         155    145    174
02175-    Quantitativeeasing217      7    11-1    Nicky Henderson         155    165    170
230-5    Planet Of Sound28      10    10-12    Philip Hobbs         152    157    172
P47P-2    Wayward Prince28    8    10-10    Hilary Parrott         150    139    170
110-3    Hold On Julio42    9    10-8    Alan King         148    150    174
18511-    Lion Na Bearnai236    10    10-8    Thomas Gibney         148    94    173
11P3-7    Join Together28    7    10-8    Paul Nicholls         148    156    176
11229-    Shakalakaboomboom231      8    10-8    Nicky Henderson         148    158    173
715U-    Tatenen231    8    10-7    Richard Rowe         147    157    171
1P09-L    Carruthers42      9    10-7    Mark Bradstock         147    132    136
55/4-1    The Package21      9    10-7    David Pipe         147    149    171
21P11-    Teaforthree262    8    10-6    Rebecca Curtis         146    165    175
P0O1-1    Balthazar King42    8    10-6    Philip Hobbs         146    157    171
24U01-    Saint Are231    6    10-5    Tim Vaughan         145    144    171
6050-6    Tartak42      9    10-5    Tim Vaughan         145    165    175
1325-0    Fruity O´Rooney42    9    10-5    Gary Moore         145    157    174
80-614    Muirhead37    9    10-4    Noel Meade         144    150    155
1211-    Problema Tic224    6    10-4    David Pipe         144    146    172
0P1-2    Michel Le Bon21      9    10-4    Paul Nicholls         144    142    174
2511-2    Duke Of Lucca28      7    10-4    Philip Hobbs         144    144    170
121P-    Giles Cross231    10    10-4    Victor Dartnall         144    155    173
6PP-52    Magnanimity44    8    10-3    D T Hughes         143    148    177
45PP-P    Diamond Harry21      9    10-3    Nick Williams         143    166    179
P1FP-3    West End Rocker21      10    10-2    Alan King         142    172    181
2/1-3P    Ace High28      8    10-2    Victor Dartnall         142    118    175
411-05    Cape Tribulation28    8    10-2    Malcolm Jefferson         142    137    167
1112P-    Harry The Viking224      7    10-2    Paul Nicholls         142    158    175
21P-P    Zarrafakt21      8    10-2    Emma Lavelle         142    99    181
211P-4    Ikorodu Road30      9    10-1    Matt Sheppard         141    154    170
3P9-42    Galaxy Rock42    8    10-1    Jonjo O´Neill         141    150    173
21U-4F    Frisco Depot28    8    10-1    Charlie Longsdon         141    149    176
P11-F7    Darna29    6    10-0    Kim Bailey         140    142    172
1/21B-    Soll262    7    9-13    Jo Hughes         139    144    170
1235-3    Alfie Spinner28      7    9-12    Nick Williams         138    153    173
345-34    Fair Along28      10    9-9    Philip Hobbs         135    143    174
1F01-9    Baile Anrai28    8    9-7    Ian Williams         133    128    171
0/90-1    Away We Go39    9    9-1    W P Mullins         127    —    —
408-44    Vino Griego20    7    8-13    Gary Moore         125    140    162
29P112    Bundle Of Fun27      9    8-12    W P Mullins         124    138    161
Spread Betting

Not now! Have dodged a bullet I feel

T43 has a lovely racing weight and could be staying on to pick up the pieces.

Hold on Julio if you forget his Festival run when not right could be well in imo.

I can see the Package being pricewise

Only a week to go.  Tidal Bay????  Bobsworth looks solid, but Alfie Spinner and Duke of Lucca are well weighted IMO.

LOL.  Another reply for me.

I think Bobs Worth looks a price to me no depth and dissapointing list imo.

For anyone who likes these kind of field narrowing statistical angles,

10 out of 10 winners had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences.
9 out of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases.
9 out of 10 winners had won over 3m1f+.
9 out of 10 winners had finished in the first two on their last completed start.
8 out of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase.
8 out of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts.
7 out of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences.
7 out of 10 winners were second season chasers.
7 out of 10 winners were Irish bred with two being British and one French.
Running Style
9 of the last 10 winners, including the last 7, raced with the leaders throughout.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners and 6 placed horses in the past 8 years from 22 runners.
Price
7 of the last 8 winners were sent off at 10/1 or shorter.
6 of the last 8 winners have been in the first 3 in the betting.
Conclusion
Based on the last 10 years the following trends are worth bearing in mind:
A horse aged 6 or 7
A horse with an official rating between 150 and 158
A horse carrying 11-0+ but not necessarily relevant this year
A horse that had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences at 3m1f+
A horse that had run 3 to 6 times over fences, winning at least half
A horse that had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
A horse that had finished in the first two last time out
A horse that was bred in Ireland
A horse that races prominently and is 10/1 or shorter

harr you have the game by the balls pal