Cheltenham Festival
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Silviniaco Conti - Gold Cup 2013
Silviniaco Conti - Gold Cup 2013
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Replies: 113
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Colupal - Just read above quote. I am not Paul Jones. We are both probably wrong!
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Good post RC and good to see you back. I think SC will prove to be some way below the best of last season's novices - but that's exciting because it means the best could be real crackers. It was interesting that Ruby(?) said he thought Kauto Stone's performance wa sprobably better than SC's.
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Thanks Strontium! Been terribly busy at home but have managed to get to the track several times, just no time to post. Have been watching the debates develop, as always very, very interesting stuff.
Regarding SC, I forgive his Ascot run, but think Wetherby was a farce and think Aintree was less than solid too probably. I am not sure what excuses he would have had at Kempton though because (and I disagree with the trainer (who I am aware knows much, much more than me)) on all we have seen on the track, Kempton you would think would suit (at least then it would have anyway IMO) and Grand Crus beat him IMO pretty fairly. At this stage I would rather back about 5 for March than SC and its very interesting to hear Ruby thinks KS put up a better level of form on the weekend (I think i actually agree come to think of it). |
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I'm not sure tbh. KS beat Quito de la Roque by a few lengths and he was written off last season as useless (and in need of a bog, which he didn't truly have on Saturday). KS also narrowly beat First Liuet, who once again didn't look to stay the trip to me. (I can't have him staying the CGC trip). At least the race at Down Royal is straightforward to assess, whereas the race at Wetherby rather fell apart. SC did win very easily, but it would be tricky to assess the form - I see the handicapper put him up to 168 and has KS on 162 (not sure if he went up?).
I was also puzzled about PFN's comments re Cheltenham - I would expect a horse that's done well at Aintree and Wetherby to be suited by Kempton. Maybe he just doesn't want to meet Grands Crus there again. |
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*re Kempton (sorry, brainphart)
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168 new mark ovewr reaction (163 with me)
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who is this KS who beat Qito please???
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Keep up H......Kauto Stone.
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sorry
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Nicholls knows the score. I fully expect that he had SC as wound up as he could at Wetherby because that is a very nice prize in itself for a 6 year old to be picking up. Let the more experienced campaigners knock the bolllocks off each other through the winter with him picking up a couple of easier races with his personal gold cup coming at Aintree which suits him and where he will be fresh against a weary or not good enough field. He'll still be 7 next season with a bit more juice to squeeze out.
No need to be greedy or needy. |
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U av a lovely bet now - wd
Massive chance |
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well worked out colop and good luck.
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good luck m8 great shout
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Thanks gents...
 Nicholls stated they may go straight to the Gold Cup and King George is definitely out (Foyles  ).Personally, I don't think today's race told us much. Long Run and Bolster clearly in good health though, both still have jumping issues and these errors are costly. It came to me today why I was taken by SC at Aintree. The horse is very pleasing to the eye when it jumps (I'm no judge of these things!)and this was confirmed today, effortless springs to mind. Downside is still the lack of Cheltenham experience... |
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yeah k.george out but not too bad am green on the race, but would ra him rther have him running ~
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SC looked very good today. I was there and backed Long Run, but I couldn't see any excuses. At no point did I think LR would get past him. Looked pretty comfortable really and has to be considered a really serious horse. Well done to all who have fancy prices.
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I can't understand what's made Nicholls rule Silviniaco Conti out of the King George as I think Kempton would suit him more than Cheltenham, and conversely, Al Ferof seems very much at home there, yet has no form at Kempton.
Also, maybe he's not dependent on soft ground but the majority of his form is with cut, and there is likely to be more give in the ground over Christmas than at the Festival. That's one of the negatives with having the top performers housed in a select few of the best stables, as they avoid their stars meeting. Besides...come the Gold Cup, I think he's got big question marks regarding his stamina, and as impressive as he's been in his two wins this season (which have featured some very smooth fencing) he has rather had things his own way. I wasn't convinced he would make the grade as a chaser as he was very slick over hurdles, and that doesn't always seem to translate to fences - he's made a monkey out of me on that score as he looks a professional chaser despite having only a handful of runs. I laid him for the Gold Cup earlier at 7.6 and I have a £300 RED next to his name which doesn't concern me too much at this stage...there's a long way to go, and I still have reservations. Kauto Star is an obvious exception (but he was truly exceptional) but a cumbersome boat is usually what wins a Gold Cup, and Silviniaco Conti certainly ain't that! Whilst not being a particular favourite of mine...Quito De La Roque fits the bill perfectly in all departments except his lack of course form - and he's recently proved his well-being with a more than satisfactory reappearance after having a few troubles...AND he's a massive price! PS - got to give a pat on the back to the OP and commiserations to anyone that was on for the King George at fancy prices - I'd feel pick-pocketed! |
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I was on Conti at 44/1 for the Gold Cup; I've layed the lot off for green numbers elsewhere as I cannot see him winning it at all
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BBF - that's good business.
Why don't you like him for the Gold Cup? What are your reservations about this horse? |
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SC is very smart and did what was expected - travelled, jumped, quickened. I think this answered one question - stamina seems to exist satisfactorilly, something I did not think was proven before. This was more of a race than the Charlie Hall, which was laughable.
However, I think i would not be running scared of a re-match if I was Long Run. Ruby dictated what was at times a ridiculous tempo and set it up to SCs advantage. The CGC has looked like a sprint a few times (from memory, Kauto's first CGC was a sprint) but very often it is a slog and a slog might suit SC. I have half a mind that LR, without a prep on Sat, and with connections mad keen not to bottom him horse at Haydock, can reverse the form in March. I think the horse may jump better at speed and the galloping Cheltenham track from a searching pace, ridden prominently, will improve him considerably IMO. So I think in the right circumstances he can come out on top of the likes of Al Ferof (Ryanair bound maybe) and SC. We will see how Bob's Worth progresses and Riverside Theatre has IMO improved since being beaten by him in the King George. Finians Rainbow has to be a doutful stayer and Captain Chris has no chance going left IMO. I therefore think connections will not be massively depressed about March against the English horses. The new Irish horses, however, could be anything and may represent a different class. One new idea seems to have emerged about Long Run, fwiw. A few suggestions have been made that Haydock may have left a mark on him last yr. I am not sure connections suggested this at the time, however, and whilst that idea may answer their questions about why he (in their opinion) ran below form in March, I wonder how much they really believe this. |
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RC - these lame excuses from trainers nowadays are pathetic in comparison to yesteryear, when chasers ran two or even three times as often a season!
I find it hard to believe that connections really believe that to be a viable excuse for Long Run's disappointing run in the Gold Cup - I thought he was nailed on last March and I'm still struggling to find a reason why he clearly didn't run up to his best, and I'm losing the faith in him by the race - maybe there's an (as yet) undiagnosed physical problem? Whatever way I look at it, he is nowhere near the same horse that completed the big chasing double two seasons ago. Years ago...I could understand when connections figured their chargers might have been 'bottomed' by a really arduous race on 'old-fashioned' heavy ground (especially when turned out again within a few weeks) but it's a glib comment when now their races are framed months apart, as seems to be the trend over the last decade or so. Whilst not being a huge fan of Captain Chris' Gold Cup prospects, it has to be remembered that he won the Arkle from the next season's Champion Chaser, and despite his tendency to jump right, the relative slower pace of a 26f chase (as opposed to a 2M race) could suit him - he's got plenty of class though his prospects of staying has to be questioned. He acquitted himself alright in the Ryanair, running a brave race, and so maybe it's premature to write off his chances as a no-hoper. I laid him a few days ago at 36 for £18 (a tad too short) and I'm hopeful of backing him at some stage at three figure odds (has been 130) as he's one I'd definitely want onside come the big day, though a big run in the King George (an obvious target where he's sure to be on the premises) would scupper my plans and leave me with a hot potato. As usual with me...it's all about value and at the price Silviniaco Conti is at the moment for the Gold Cup, he represents bad value, as just like the rest of them at the top end of the market (focusing on the top 6 or 7) he looks very speedy, with possible stamina limitations - all of them except Long Run & Bob's Worth aren't guaranteed to stay in my view, and I still question the raw ability of the latter in the highest grade. Doesn't anyone like Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup? He's got a touch of class and is a sure-fire stayer! |
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Hi Navel, interesting post! Only a quick reply here.
QDLR (I may be being unfair) might win in a total bog, but otherwise I think he would be let down for class IMO. They would be the only circumstances I could see him doing it. I still think LR will improve in the right race (an end to end gallop on a testing track). My view about him is not that Haydock took the edge off him (though it may have done) but that possibly Newbury did, albeit on decent ground. I just wonder if he peaked there. I agre about SCs stamina doubt. I am a touch more certain now but i would still rather lay him than back him. Re CC, I cannot have him going left (and never could have him, and said so on here, even in his novice hurdle days, when he hung badly right, even when winning at the track). I believe he got away with it in the Arkle only because the second did too much too early (CC still jumped right in the Arkle, as he did in his Kempton prep) - Finians should have won that race IMO. Interesting point about the longer trip maybe helping in that regard, but I am not sure the trip will matter. It may even see the tendency get worse (conjecture, I know!). IMO the only reason CC did not do in the Ryanair what he did in the Cotswold Chase (ie, jump diagnoally!) was because Dickie Johnson sensibly locked him inside - he then spent a lot of the race jumping right, into Riverside Theatre, making his win all the more impressive. I believe if CC could jump straight (and I do not think Ascot proved he can) he would be a player. I also happen to think (on pretty limited evidence, I admit) that he would stay - he reminds me of Imperial Commander. It is going to be interesting! RC. |
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RC - "It may even see the tendency get worse (conjecture, I know!)"
That's a good point and something I have pondered over as the slower pace (in relation to a 2M race) might give him more 'thinking time' at the fences to do what HE WANTS to do (run down the obstacles) instead of obeying his pilot - it's all a big quandary as usual and this renewal is gonna be more fascinating than usual. As for QDLR...he's acted well on decent ground before and maybe he's been unfairly & prematurely tagged as a mudlark. I just see him as a paceless plodder that just like Synchronised, will relish every yard of the trip, and the faster they go, the faster they'll come back to him - that type of 'boat' invariably exceeds past performances come Gold Cup day...there's a long list of apparent 'flukes' that've been bang on the premises, or even won it! I have said a few times on here that he's not one whose ability I'm totally convinced about (ratings-wise) but I feel sure he'll relish the test - the lack of course experience is definitely a concern, but at the prices, it's not gonna cost much to find out. I thought that was a really encouraging run at Down Royal (after his setbacks) and I read that his trainer believes he's got him back to somewhere near his peak - it'll be very interesting to see his next run, as I think he's got a lot to do over 20f in the Durkan on 9th December against some quality opposition, so a defeat wouldn't concern me too much...I would be happy to see confirmation of his improvement (with a promising run) as I can't see him winning. |
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Cant quite understand why people don't think conti will stay, hes quite clearly bred to stay, the way he stayed on in his novice hurdle race against captain Chris in what was a very stamina searching race suggested he stays if there was another couple of furlongs in the Feltham he would of beat grand cru and bobs worth by a margin, personally i felt grand cru was spent at the end of that race and the way Tom scu pushed him out deceived lots of people into thinking he won easy. imo if Tom would of asked grand cru he wouldn't of gone any faster. which has been proven in the rsa and paddy power. that race was won by a tactical move. conti was the best out of all the novices last year he's proving it now with much more to come.
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Brooksie, it may turn out he was the best, but at the end of their novice yrs, you could not have concluded that - sure;y the Aintree race was nowhere near as solid as the Sun Alliance?
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* should have read 'surely you could not have concluded that'...
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My theory behind thinking he was the best staying novice wasn't really to do with his win at Aintree. I took a strong view after the feltham that Conti and Bobs Worth were better than Grand Cru. The RSA confirmed this for me, lots of people on the Grand Cru wagon thought his run in the RSA was below par, personally i think that was him running his best. Bobs Worth winning the RSA would suggest he was the best staying novice last season, my view is the one other horse that finished infront of him on boxing day would of finished infront of him again in the RSA. I know Bobs Worth finished ahead of Conti at Ascot but thats when Nicholls had the illness in his yard, So there was excuses for that run.
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I think Cue Card will prove better than all of them. Gave 7lbs to Bobs Worth at Newbury and did not get a very inspired ride either and only got beat a short head. At level weights in a true run race I would take Cue Card over Bobs Worth every time. It was a shame he unseated when going well against Grands Crus because we would have had another piece of form to help with the jigsaw puzzle. Whether Cue Card will stay the Gold Cup trip is unknown but then at 6yo we were asking the same of Best Mate and Kauto Star - you will only find out when they try. Kicking King was another who was second in an Arkle before being stepped up in his second season, won the KG as a 6yo.
Anyway, we shall see if I'm right about CC being better than Bobs Worth during the season. Surely they will meet sooner or later. Tizzard said he chose the Haldon GC rather than the Charlie Hall because it was just down the road and he didn't want to bottom the horse on seasonal debut. He goes to Kempton bouncing. |
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If you are saying SC was the best staying novice of last year, where would you put Invictus? A real shame he's missed this year, every bit as much potential based on last years evidence imo
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judorick
Cue Card was race fit when they met at Newbury and Bob's Worth was having his first race of the season. It seems reasonable to presume that as with many of Henderson's he would improve for the race. Throw in that it was over two and a half which on current evidence would seem ideal for Cue Card but an inadequate trip for Bob's Worth which would seem to be supported by how he ground Cue Card down close home after being a couple of lengths down at the last. Get them both race fit over 3 miles at Cheltenham and I'd take Bob's Worth every time. |
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I'll take that match bet with you when it happens
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JR - I'd be with Cue Card as to who's the better horse but as EO states...3M at Cheltenham, and with no stamina concerns, it has to be Bob's Worth.
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Thanks for your reply Brooksie - interesting angle. Be interesting to see Bobs and SC in a slog on a left handed track. I am coming to the view too that the RSA was as good (over a trip) as GC is.
Judo, I felt Bobs' lack of a run / relative inexperience / inadequate trip might have told at Newbury when he only just beat CC (who was not given a great ride) but I do think that represents top form and also think CC is aa real tool. Do you think CC would beat Bobs in a staying race? I think CC would murder Bobs in a speed test but not over a trip which emphasises stamina. |
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Judo - sorry, ignore my question, I see you have already answered it.
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I agree cant wait to see Bobs Worth and Conti do battle at Cheltenham, I think they'll finish 1 and 2 in the gold cup this season.
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blimey!!
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Interesting Brooksie. I feel like I know what the British horses might be capable of but not sure how the 2nd season Irish ones will compare.
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As expected SC entered in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury this Saturday...
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Not much quality in opposition,but i am interested in Mail be Bievre.Have backed him NRNB for Gold Cup,seems hes highly thought of by Tom George,could be anything.
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Don't think the race will tell us much in respect of the Gold Cup except, hopefully, the well-being of SC...
I feel a bit more confident regarding SC's chances for the big one... the Lexus us told us little without an outstanding candidate emerging... Bob's Worth missing his prep cannot aid his chances and there must be a slight doubt about his participation at Cheltenham... I doubt there will be much change in SC's price come teatime Saturday whatever he does so anything at 6s or above may be value... Will also be interested to see how the Bolster runs having chucked a few quid at him for the Gold Cup although a poor run would not necessarily put backers off for Cheltenham imo... cheers. |