Cheltenham Festival
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Simonsig 7/1 Champion Hurdle
Simonsig 7/1 Champion Hurdle
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When considering who trains him I'd have to say Hurricane Fly should be fav. He's done it all before and Willie was a very worried man in the parade ring before his first race last season So much so he drifted like a barge. All was not well with Hurricane Fly last season IMO even when he hacked up first time out.
The fact that Willie can bring them back and have them spot on for the big day edges it for me. I can't see Barry Geharty deserting Grandouet for Simonsig. If he did you can bet AP will step in with JP's blesssing He was adamant that the horse ran in the Neptune last year and you can bet he wants him to run in the Arkle this year. I'd have Grandouet 9/2 a half point behind Hurricane Fly 4/1 and Simonsig around 12/1 as he wont run but 6/1 with a run. Rock on Ruby I'd make 7/1 . He wont win but I wouldn't offer any more than said because he will run well and could easily be placed. Zarkander I'd go 100/1 on a win market he's out of his league and 20/1 if ew betting was allowed. Cinders and Ashes is better than he is given credit for 18/1 is huge. Like his stable companion before him he'll be right in the firing line at the death. Great ew bet should be no more than 8/1. Darlan isn't anywhere near good enough 25/1 Grumeti would think he'd gone into orbit if he ran in it 50/1 btw I woud l lay these prices but if anyone asks I'm out  |
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Rondetto when your back in I'll have that 100/1 on Zarkander
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There might be a queue. Nicholls has been extremely positive about him so far after RoR was his nap of the Festival last time. It surprises me - I don't see Zarkander as a natural 2 m hurdler - but Nicholls knows rather more about this than I do.
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Well its a bad price simply cos his main target is the Arkle.
Even if his intended target was the CH hes still too short,as he has still to prove he has sufficient speed and class to win a 2m championship race,and their are others that imo are more likely to win the CH. Personally think any bookies that do not have Rock on Ruby as favourite are bonkers!! Unless anyone on here can give me a good reason why. |
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Zarkander would interest me should he be targetted at the WHurdle.
CH no chance-imo of course. |
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I think on form lines anyone who likes Grandouet & Darlan's claims must also consider a horse that has beaten both. Although we don't know what would have happened in the Betfair Hurdle had Darlan stayed up I'm fairly sure given the problems in the Nicholls yard that Zarkander wasn't at his best which makes the win all the more impressive.
He beat Grandouet twice as a Juvenile, again one of those could perhaps be chalked off due to the fall, and Nicholls has always rated him highly. At the prices he would be my bet at the moment of those at the front of the market |
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Fair points,just feel that he will be better over further myself.
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But he will run over 2 m because the only options are 2 m or 3 m and Nicholls won't waste anything he considers decent against Big Buck's.
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Dont doubt that Stront,but i reckon eventually he will prove hes a stayer.
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Zarkandar could improve 14 to 20lb easily this term. He had an interrupted preparation, was coughing after Newbury and was only a five year old in a CH which we know has proved to be a major negative over many years
He was also the strongest finisher in a race where it paid to be prominent, so he has to be considered a big player. The other two for me are Grandouet and Simonsig. |
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and put me down for 500
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I think he's a real grinder and that maybe gives the impression he'll be better over further. It's obvious that Nicholls rates him as better than the current Champ, he was much sweeter on Zarkander all season despite his issues (and ROR being trained at the Satellite yard).
In a year when things are pretty tight at the head of the market with no obvious superstar a real battler like this one could prove best in the finish |
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Dont take too much notice of Nicholls comments imo
Rock on Ruby was good winner,always up there and quickened at the end,and will be hard to beat again imo.Hes proved he stays further and it will take some horse to outbattle him up that hill. Yes Zarkander will improve,or should do from 5-6,and i could be wrong of course about him being a stayer,but if i am i still cannot see him beating ROR. |
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Nicholls was very positive about RoR before the Festival - he had him as his charity bet of the meeting at the Sandown preview evening. I'd therefore judge his bullishness about Zarkander to be worth noting.
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Take yer point,but i have had my fingers burnt enough listening to trainers.
I go with my eyes,and live or die by it. |
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I think Zarkander looks like furthert will help but I agree that he wil probably be campaigned at 2 this yr. I also agree completely with Judo. That was a very decent run, given the issues Judo raises, for a 5yr old. Further in time certainly. I happen to think Simonsig would destroy him for speed over 2. Grandouet could be interesting in this company and still think (though probably stupidly) that Binocular and Hurricane, with better rides, may have one last piece to say. ROR i think should be favourite on all known form at this stage but IMO only an average champion hurdler.
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I certainly do not think the Champion Hurdle form is anything to write home about. Two of the expected principals were held up way out the back (Hurricane Fly and Bino) and McCoy seemed determined to ride his to beat HF rather than win the race. The prominent racers never seemed to really be galloping (Overturn and ROR were restrained in front imo) and it was extremely difficult to come from off the pace. I can certainly see the result being reversed quite easily or a new contender coming into it. Just think the likelihood of the race being run to suit the front runners again is not high and I am confident that neither of the first two home in 2012 will be winning in 2013
This division is one of the hardest not least because we don't know which runners are going to turn up |
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Grandouet on the snaff in 2013
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could well be Howdi, clearly very smart, need to see him back on the track
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indeed we do,has to have improved from when we last saw him,as he was only 4 then.
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Simonsig has now tightened up again in the Arkle market, suggesting that Henderson's comments about decisions being made after he schools are probably accurate, rather than the yard leaning heavily one way or the other at this point. Though, presumably, to even bother schooling him over fences would imply that this is the preferred option?
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My view entirely Cyclops.
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Yep,chasing has always been the preferred option,and to my mind he stays hurdling only if they are not happy with the schooling.
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the way he's shortened on hear there must have been some sort of plan now set out.
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come on chemical nicky show us your hand we are all eager to take 5-2 he wins the arjle in 6 months time
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^^^ that should have read the arkle not the arjle which isn't a new race put up by cheltenahm directive to make the festival 5 days.
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Howdi, last time someone spelt Arkle wrong on here got all kinds of abuse
http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/28869881/?liveView=0 Poor giggsy and his "Ankle Betting", but then again he did have the winner at 10's! |
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you are forgetting I'm a well respected member of the forum chief lad
can't see me getting abuse unless my stalker (celtic son) is let out of prison. |
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Simosig now drifting out again in this market, with 12.5 currently available. At the very least, this would suggest that he won't for sure be staying over hurdles, and that schooling over fences is either taking place or scheduled to do so.
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must have scholled some now its 2 weeks away from november!!!!
Nicky knows he is just playing silly buggers |
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** schooled
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Agreed he must have been schooled by now; maybe they just genuinly can't decide which way to go or Hendo wants to take one route and the owner wants to go the other
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they know
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The betting moves today suggests he's Arkle bound
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He's been up and down on here like a tarts drawers. Interesting, he's changed very little on the books. Best price 4/1 for the Arkle and they are also the shortest for the CH at 6/1. I suspect you are right bbf but not a done deal yet.
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Joe Coral.....I shouldn't be allowed out on my own these days!!
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Even if he runs in a couple of novice chases he may still end up over hurdles in March if it turns out he can't jump.
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True, Strontium, and the cases of both Beech Road and Morley Street show that horses have come back from abortive chasing campaigns to win the Champion Hurdle. However, you can't give Sominsig away looking today's Champion market here, suggesting either he's had a setback or they've definitely decided to start out over fences.
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20+ now for CH, it appears a decision has been made
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i knew he was going to go over fences and if he takes to them in a race then he must be a good thing for the ARKLE. i'm on him at 6/1 on here as all the will he wont he "pundits" had their opinion! i'll be thanking all yas in March!! lol.
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