Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle 2013
Champion Hurdle 2013
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I particularly agree with the point that Rock On Ruby can just sit there in the van whatever the pace, if it's quick he's been second in a Neptune and if it's slow he can kick from the front but however you look at it he's very solid and repeatedly shows his best at Cheltenham. Fry is a sharp one and it won't be lost on him that the horse won first time last season then didn't run between Kempton and Cheltenham. It's all about value and 9-1 appears just that compared to the front 2.
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ROR seems best value to me also. Not my sort of AP price at this stage unless doubles and trebles etc. However, last seasons novices are not yet cutting it, therefore last years champ will do for me. Countrywide flame has done nothing wrong and time will tell, but not a fan of 5 yr old champions.
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Hurricane Fly remains a head scratcher for me. No bigger fan than me, but his last two runs last season suggested the spark wasn't there and his run the other day was inconclusive. I don't blame Ruby for his ride in the Champion - he was never travelling like a winner, never with his customary head down eagerness, and was close enough if good enough. But I'm not convinced either by Mullins saying he was never happy with him last season. He said after the Irish Champion that it might have been HF's best ever run.
It may be with him that you either take the leap of faith or not; unlikely that he'll run in anything like a Cheltenham simulation beforehand, although followers of the horse would doubtless be heartened by seeing him dish out a thrashing or two to Irish pretenders in the meantime. There will be a nagging doubt as to whether Cheltenham really suits him - I was amazed that he did not put a more emphatic seal on the race when beating Peddler's in 2011 - and maybe a heavy ground Cheltenham would inconvenience him far less than most of the others, if this winter becomes as wet as its promising to be. HF will have his supporters; they may include me, but I don't believe anyone can be really confident again about him for the race. |
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Cyclops WM was at pains to point out throughout all of last season that he was not happy with The Fly and he did not have his first run until Jan 29th. I would accept that the horse has questions to answer but had he produced his previous seasons form he would have had the 2012 champion hurdle field for breakfast. Time will tell of course if he is back to his best. Meanwhile last seasons novices arent setting the world on fire and both the Supreme and Neptune were probably sub-standard.
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Balder Success anyone?
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Oscar Whisky looks bet of Festival at this stage to me. Will strip fit following the Welsh Champion Hurdle and is consistent enough to make a mockery of the odds. The Fly certainly hasn't looked as all conquering as he has in the past and would be surprised if he figures when up against others on the upgrade.
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Hope you right Glossy,big prices on him i have,and hes my fav horse,but think it would have to be soft ground for him to win.
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Not so sure he'll need soft, budd. The only ground he won't want is anything better than good-to-soft which won't happen at Chelt anyway. I think he has a huge chance and would have him amongst the principles and frankly find it incredible that the likes of Countrywide Flame, Darlan and Grandouet are shorter in the market than him.
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Thinking it will help slow down the speedsters for him.
Yep,i would have him shorter as well,certainly less than CF and Darlan. Grandouet looks like he could be a goodun though. |
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thefarmer
09 Sep 12 21:44 Joined: 06 Apr 08 | Topic/replies: 349 | Blogger: thefarmer's blog If Simonsig stays over hurdles then you need look no further for the winner of the Champion Hurdle although i fear Nicky has other ideas. I love these bold statements  |
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Yep agreed, Grandouet could indeed be a good un but hasn't achieved anything like enough to suggest he should be 3 or 4 ticks shorter than OW. Talking myself into a big antepost bet here which is what I want to avoid this year!
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If NH believed what some of the Simonsig worshippers believe he would be running him in the CH. He obviously doesnt and he realises that there is a big difference between winning a champion hurdle and winning a poor Neptune.
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Oscar Whisky will only run if its soft....must be a huge chance of that this year
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Not sure on what basis you've decided this year's Neptune was 'poor' Arklarkle.
We've not seen the 1st or 2nd this season yet but the 3rd has already won a Grade 2 race and was just behind Zaidpour on Sunday; beating the likes of Volder La Vedette in one of Ireland's most prestigious hurdles. The 4th and 8th placed horses finished 1st and 2nd in a decent handicap at the Paddy Power meeting, with Double Ross reversing the places before very nearly going on to make all at Haydock the week after. The 10th placed horse won its first run over fences before finishing 2nd in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Newbury. That's every horse that has run this season who finished in the top 10 in the Neptune; all of whom backed up their race. |
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Bluebirdfan- Balder Success?, I take it your still on page 1 of the Timeform 50 to follow freebie..............I would still be interested in your logic on this one as cant see it myself.
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Glossy, only one of his opposition has won a grade one at any stage and the handicap hurdle form is a long way from Ch hurdle form. 2nd and 5th both ran in April at the Punchestown festival - Felix Yonger could only finish fifth and Sous Le Cieux was beaten by two stable mates. Dont think the trainer (WM) of those four would rate them close to The Fly. Monksland did win an uncompetive race in Down Royal and finished in front of VLV since but I would ignore the mares form this year and they were both beaten by Zaidpour who is ok but not Ch Hur class - I would believe that the Meade stable would have rated him some way behind the ill-fated Go Native. I accept Simonsig was possibly the most impressive winner at the festival and he could only beat what was in the race and he could go to prove himself a world-beater. Jumping of course is the name of the game. Look at Mikail Dhagenuet who won the Neptune 3 1/2 seasons back. Sixteen races later we see him at Punchestown tomorrow attempting to win his first chase. We were told that chasing would be his forte and some were saying he might go for the Gold Cup in his first season - he was even quite low in the betting for it at one stage (a bit like Grands Crus). Hopefully Simonsig turns out soon as I need him for my TTF but am always worried when they turn out late in the season as it normally indicates that all is not well. Anyway GL with your punting.
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Fair enough, good reply Arklearkle. Time will tell and we'll know a bit more in a few months time! GL to you too.
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At the prices i think Binocular at 25-1 represents the value bet, was not far off HF and ROR last year yet massively priced in comparison, should the ground be on the good side come March he would be a threat to all and i think Nicky thinks there could be one more big race in him.
All prep geared to Cheltenham amd still relatively lightly raced including a victory over ROR in the 2011 xmas hurdle, only 3 runs back. Will do for me. |
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Darlan very impressive today.
On a line through Raya Star, you'd have to say Oscar Whisky's price at 14/1 is huge, compared to Darlan's 3/1. OK, Oscar beat him over 2 and a half, but Oscar beat Raya doing hand stands, and his price is 4 times bigger. I still think the best form is the Zark, Grandouet, RoR race though. |
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If Darlan can go straight to being ante-post favourite after beating horses rated a stone below championship class in a slowly run race in heavy ground, that tells you all you need to know at this stage. From the evidence of the season so far it looks a weak division with nothing standing out and the market will ebb and flow on emotional responses to the trials. I won't be backing anything ante-post at this stage as I think there may be a big surprise in store. There are sure to be lots of twists and turns before the big day.
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As this is my favourite race and i come on here once a year,here's my position.For the 3rd year running i have Oscar Whiskey at big prices.I have'nt seen anything today to worry me,also people who think he wont be quick enough should compare the times of the International, and the Relkeel from the last or even the 3rd last, as i have done.
I see only 2 dangers,firm ground, and Peddlers,who i have also backed. Might see them both on New years day! |
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I hope you're wrong with Peddler's as I said on here at the start of last year's horror season that I thought they should target the World Hurdle as I thought he was one of the few worthy of taking on Big Buck's.
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oscar Whisky only runs if its soft,and would have a big chance in those conditions.
Have him at big prices,but my main bet is ROR. If i can back HF and Zarkander as well i reckon i will have the winner,but i may only back one of them,depends on prices. Binocular is the dark horse imo. |
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RoR and Zark are similar. So I'd add Fly to get a speedy type. Ruby was patting him down the neck just after he jumped the last at Leopardstown. Think Ruby knew he was back.
I rewatched his win in Irish Champion from last Jan. Man that was bottomless. Not surprised it took it out of him running on that fto, Unaccompanied couldn't go on it either. If he was not right and missed his first 3 intended runs and then ran on that, he looks tired finishing. Thing is being a 9yo might mean he's lost a bit of his powers. We'll only know on the day I suppose. Shame he missed 2 festivals though when he was young. Especially when he was 6yo, many winners are 6yo. |
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Wouldn't have had much interest in backing anything a/p for the champion hurdle as it has always looked the most open of race and lacked any value. This time last year I was lucky enough to back ROR at 16's. This year I watched him run in the name of a new trainer and wouldn't be overly worried that he won't peak come march. But on all seen so far you couldn't but be IMPRESSED with darlan. To me he was the one that would suffer the most due to a lack of pace and heavy ground. And although the price now reflects it, sometimes you shouldn't ignore a gift horse when its going. ***** 5 star
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Anyone got a steer on when Binocular is going to hit the track, can't see NH wanting to risk him on bad ground.
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Irish Champion Hurdle is his aim, but I wouldn't be surprised if he skipped it if it turned out to be better ground in England.
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Can't understand those backing Darlan at the price this far out. He posted a time over 8 seconds slower than the novice River Maigue, beating a handicapper and another novice. The other horses he beat are perhaps not as good as their trainers have led us to believe and I don't think Darlan's Supreme Hurdle form is special. OK he was visually impressive the other day but I'd want to see him against better horses before backing him.
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Anyone got any thoughts on one i just read about in sporting life, REBEL FITZ. Just looked at his form and ok off 156 he needs to find in excess of 20ib's worth of improvement but the form he showed when slamming course of courses and giving that one 17ib is top notch, and as long as no heavy is in going description, defo an improving type! At 40/1, worth a small speculative punt perhaps
 Would be worried he may head to one of the handicaps and so could be waiting for the weights to be published as well as better ground though off 156, he be one of the top weights surely |
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big fan of the Hurricane but don't think
ROR got the credit he deserved last season and thought he ran well 1st time out when blowing up near the last flight.With Nichols by his name on the card would be shorter than 9&10/1 on the book,I reckon. As for a big price runner Raya Star,EW,could fit the bill@25s(books),90s+ on here. GL ALL |
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Lots of cards to be played yet.
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Rebel Fitz form ties in with Captain Cee Bee a horse obliterated by Hurricane Fly. Twice. He has no chance.
Go back through the CH winners. Never is there a winner that just comes out of nowhere to win. All have run at previous years festival or been grade 1 winners. |
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Try Beech Road.
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Oh Punjabi that was a great result, but piss poor race worst winner in last 10 years but love him.
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he won a tough race imo,Bino and Cel Halo up that hill was not easy.
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As I was at pains to point out to everyone on here punjabi had come 3rd in the previous years race. Had won a Grade 1 at Punchestown, then won the fighting Fifth. Then was about to win the Christmas Hurdle before falling. Hendo said on tv before the Kingwell I'm running him here to get him fit for Cheltenham. He will need this.
Just because the masses are blind to the obvious doesn't mean Punjabi was a surprise winner. Had he not fallen at Kempton he would have won the 1 million wbx bonus. He was a fantastic horse that season. Like many peaking at 6yo. |
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Agree CV he wasn't really the same afterwards but he was very good that season couldn't believe his price tbh after one poor run. Himself and Celestial Halo were at their best that year and it was a cracking race.
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Where i agree with CVByrne in that winners of the champ do not often come out of know where, there was one such 'surprise' winner to most that i remember well cos i backed it on the day!
SUBLIMITY Just to re-iterate, he was 20/1 morning of the race and seemingly did not have the form in the book good enough to win but something stuck out at me as i as always was looking for an outsider to back along with my more fancied runners and i picked this one. I put REBEL FITZ up above as a dark one i plucked from a article in sporting life that i kinda agree with. He maybe only rated 156, too high for a handicap, and his form over 2 miles is good if not outstanding. On ground without heavy in the description his form figs are outstanding, having never finished worse than 2nd in any of these. Is obviously improving and who knows what he could produce if good were ever to be a part of any going description. He only needs to come out once, blow em away, be put up 10ib in ratings and all of a sudden he is 16/1 for this race. At 100 on here now, represents a brilliant if not speculative play that may well pay dividends! Although i am worried as he was 75 yesterday before my above post, once above post was put up, some people took all the money down to 42, now some seemingly RICH **** has decided to put up 74k at 100  . Gosh one can only imagine 1k never mind £74@100  |
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Aye MM. What was great about that race was how mental the early pace was. They were miles clear of the supreme. Then the supreme field came back to them and was almost the exact same time for both races. The did a picture in picture to show it. Was great to see.
Remember Ruby saying in every preview he was not gonna make the running. No chance etc... The off like the clappers he goes. |
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If I remember rightly won a race on his
reappearance by half the track in Ireland,somewhere. |