Cheltenham Festival
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when Rock On Ruby takes on the Hurricane again.....
when Rock On Ruby takes on the Hurricane again.....
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I take a similar view to zilzal. I do think HF is very very special given the right conditions. I'm just not convinced that those conditions are fastish ground at Cheltenham. He just about got away with it last year partly because of his class and partyl because of how the race panned out. I suspect he didn't really like the experience though.
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This had (maybe still does have) the makings of a good old-fashioned seethfest. I'm all for that seeing as we have eons to wait for any other decent Festival...
I think Hurricane Fly is one of the best we've seen for a very long time but Istabraq was a beast and would have picked him up and carried him in my book. When he was ridden to be as good as he could be (instead of to win the race) he was utterly jaw dropping. Watch his first Champion Hurdle and you'll see how much pace and power he had. As for the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, I mostly agree with Booster. All those end of season Grade Ones are worth hugely less than Cheltenham form. Yes, some good horses have won the races (some very good) but you can't tell me that everything arrives spot-on on quickish ground after a long season in the same way they do in mid-March at the theatre of dreams. Even Aintree form is usually considerably less reliable because most of the top-notchers are begging for their holidays (and rightly so) by that point in the year. |
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Dont you think that Horses are being trained more for the Spring festivals as a whole now Tom?? 1st two in the Champion hadnt run this calender year, same with the Gold Cup winner, you are not seeing a lot of horses all season up until the spring, maybe a few at the open meeting, then they are put away, run over hurdles, NH flat etc
You might as well have the off season in Jan and Feb nowdays  |
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There are a few in the Champion Hurdle that look ideal trading opportunities to me. I see nothing wrong with backing at bigger odds and trading out for free bets. Worked for me this year with Rubi Light and Darlan, as well as Simonsig in the Supreme, so saved me a good few quid.
As CV has said, I can't see Hurricane Fly being any bigger than 6/1 from now until post time. I think he'll be shorter after Punchestown and be about 9/2 over the summer, and if he has a trouble free season he could easily be 5/2 - 2/1 after the Irish Champion Hurlde. Oscar Whisky is currently 33/1 which I also think is a good trading price. I see he is only priced up by Sid James though? I haven't heard anything about chasing and he surely won't run in the World Hurdle again. If he runs well at Aintree, I think he could be a 16/1 shot over the summer, and would have a chance if having a proper 2m campaign, and his price will shorten if he wins the Welsh Champion against inferior opposition. I've also had a little bit on Cotton Mill at 70/1 on here. Would have run Simonsig close, and he is 12/1 by those who have priced him up. Can see him going down the Champion route because he seems more speed than stamina; but obvious question marks, so a bit of a shot in the dark, but at 70/1 I think it was worth a few quid. Apart from that, I wouldn't rush out and back any of the Triumph horses, next years Champion could have a very different look about it with the likes of Cinders and Ashes, Darlan, Oscar Whisky, Spirit Son, Grandouet and possibly Go Native and Cotton Mill. At this very early stage its already looking really competitive. |
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WellC, 70/1 looks a huge price on Cotton Mill if he stays hurdling and over 2 m, though I notice he's in the 3 miler at aintree this week. Might he be going chasing? I like Neptune horses for the folllowing Champion - proved again this year though I didn't back RoR - and CM would surely have been third at worst if he'd stood up.
I reckon Simonsig would have the Champion for the taking but it looks strongly like he'll go chasing. Nothing from the Supreme or Triumph really looks like a superstar. hence Cotton Mill looks a nice sporting bet at this stage. |
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Didn't actually see that entry Stront, and just saw that he's got an entry in a 3 mile novice hurdle at Punchestown - already signs are looking bad
 You never know, he might not stay 3 miles and come back to two, but he was still travelling strongly in the Neptune when running out, so to me he looked like a speed horse (then again, I have just seen he's never even ran over 2m, maybe I should do more homework before sticking a few quid on )I also think the Champion could be there for the taking for Simonsig. If he can speed up his hurdling technique, he has such an engine it'll take a serious horse to keep up with him. Actually got a quote of 33/1 before the Neptune for the Champion, but didn't take it because of the chasing rumours. If he were mine I'd have a crack at a Grade 1 hurdle (like the Fighting Fifth) and take it from there. It's still early enough in the season to then have a go at novice chases if it doesn't work out. |
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Vibe at Hendo's yard on friday was Simonsig'll go chasing and that's also what the early betting suggests. Hendo has Darlan, Spirit Son, Grandouet and Oscar Whisky for the Champion - but who knows at this stage!
As for Cotton Mill, he was travelling superbly until he ran out, but I believe the ability to stay 2 1/2 m is exactly what you want in a Champion Hurdler. Next year if they want to target the Festival they'll have to go for the Champion or World Hurlde (if he stays over hurdles) and the Champion looks the more realstic option to me. That said, Paul Jones says he looks like a 3 miler in his Aintree book! I really hope they go down the 2 m route. I don't think ferguson has had a chaser yet (at least not of any note) and it will be intereating to see what happens when he does. |
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Geraghty said Simonsig will go chasing and hopes he'll win the Arkle next year.
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pedrobob
06 Apr 12 14:48 Joined: 27 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 3,775 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog thanks for sharing your angle on betting strategy, cv, including the 1/4 odds IR lay. Is there a minimum price you will back at or is there no such thing, could a 1/10 shot be value in your eyes? You mention that you have carried on backing 20/1+ shots ew. What is generally the maximum price that you find yourself playing at on daily bets, what sort of price range do you generally find the large proportion of your winners in? Sorry only seeing this post now. I usually never touch odds on shots, exceptions are horses like Big Bucks and Quevega. But sometimes I'll take something a shade odds on, but I never really massively raise my stakes when backing them, so my return is usually small. I must quantify this by pointing out I do not bet on flat racing at all, I'm strictly a National Hunt backer, there's less odds on shots in NH. I have no maximum price I back at, value is value. I look at race cards the day before and get a feel for the horses that may interest, then when I see early odds I'll either see something that looks overpriced or I won't. As for trading (headmaster) I think there are angles everywhere that can be exploited to give you an edge. The in running market is one such advantage, as is laying horses who get too short. Take Boston Bob at chelts, backed at antepost he went to 6/5 or whatever when he was a 2/1 shot. Once he is below the price I believe he should be he becomes a lay. It's simple probability. You never stop learning in this game and I've plenty more to learn that's for sure. But I've reached a stage where I'm making a steady profit. Next step is increasing stakes and that's where the bookies become big problems. |
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Apologies, CV. I'm having anger management issues whenever anyone mentions trading or bots or arbers at the moment! You carry on mate, good luck.
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I thought you were just joking or making a valid comment
That's why I explained myself.All set to make Contact after the Grand National   |
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I hope so!
 Trouble I find is, when you spot one a long way off like this, it tends to blur your normal analayis of a race on the day, don't you think? |
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I think everything has gone swimingly, only worry would be the ground, hope it's quick for him. They can throw an experienced conditional up as he'll be racing of a feather weight anyway. Get what you can ew early prices and wait to see what Delboy and Rodney make of his chances. If they hammer him follow them.
My plan anyway. |
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Not 'arf. You have got me going again, CV - will bump thread up to the top.
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follow the plan, hes improved a fair bit hasnt he! quel esprit wouldve won that on the bridle wouldnt he lads!
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cv, many thanks for your advice re trading and value betting
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Might be pocket talking but Cotton Mill is no 3 miler. To my eyes he has to go either Champion Hurdle or Arkle next year
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He didn't seem to get the trip did he (unless he hated the ground), but he was travelling better than anything 3-4 f out (as he was when he ran out in the Neptune). I'd also like to see what he can do over 2 m hurdles but like you that's pocket talk
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You're most welcome Pedrobob
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33/1 on Oscar Whisky still decent value after his win today.
Still don't know about next years plans, but it has to be Arkle or Champion Hurdle; clearly doesn't stay 3 miles. |
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Big Buck's form looks OK.
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whoa, another spanner, looks like 1000 stars is now better than hurricane fly
mugs! |
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Who are the mugs?
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