I'm calling you a moron for saying it's a 2nd rate grade 1.

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Sublimity, Punjabi, Hurricane Fly, Binocular.

That is a list of Champion hurdlers who go for the 2nd rate Grade 1.

That's 6 champion hurdlers from 7 years who went for the "2nd rate" race.

It's a fair amount more than went for the supposedly superior Aintree hurdle.

So, you're a daft moron. Simple as that.

You compare the Punchestown Gold Cup to the Punchy Champion Hurdle, that's like comparing the Aintree Bowl to the Aintree Hurdle you daft fool. Staying chases after the Gold Cup are rubbish, they were only added to the festivals about a decade ago.

You haven't touched a nerve here at all, I'm just laughing at you moron. The fact you subscribe to a tipster makes me laugh even more. Can't even make your own judgements. I love betfair forums for daft fools like you.

And by your own earlier comments there was nothing legendary about Sublimity or Punjabi. The other horses were all top class having proven so at Cheltenham but the quality of opposition not necessarily so. Hurricane Fly only just beat Peddlers Cross in his Champion Hurdle and I'd have to say Rock On Ruby was a more impressive winner of the race by comparison. The point I was making was in response to an earlier poster who said Hurricane Fly would thrash Rock On Ruby when he comes to Ireland but a) there's no proof that that would happen and b) there's no need when there's a better race over here for him.

Your latest piece of insightful info is "Punchestown Grade 1s are an after thought for most trainers both sides of The Irish Sea."

Ah yes, sure every race run that's not at the Cheltenham Festival is an afterthought. Sure nobody cares about anything else, it's all afterthoughts.

I don't really care how much you make from your tipsters, it just shows your own opinion is so useless you need to pay for other peoples opinions to get you winners.

CVB, you have 2 Irish Champion Hurdles so not really fair to compare the longer distance race at Aintree with them ;)

Barnesy you're some judge thinking that the Leopardstown Champion Hurdle victory against Oscars Well and Unaccompanied, who couldn't go in the ground warranted backing a horse at odds on to win the best 2 mile hurdle of the year. Oscars Well had been beaten by the same Thousand Stars and such top class hurdlers as Unaccompanied and The Real Article in his previous races this year.

Just to underline your own deficiencies in reading form here goes. At your end of term party in May last year Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars, a horse who clearly needs an extra mile in top company and couldn't even place in our World Hurdle. Decent County Hurdle winner though. In his 4 previous starts to winning our Champion Hurdle, he'd beaten Solwhit on each occasion.

The Newbury victory of Rock On Ruby gave him 10 lbs in hand of Zarkandar through Raya Star and that had to give him a better than 12-1 chance.


As far as using tipsters goes, I'll make no apology as they've returned me a profit every year since I've done so.

Timeform Jury are 13.65 pts up this year, my Irish tipster over £4000 up and my own tips 58.6 pts up so it all adds up to a decent start to the year. I was introduced to this by a mate who made over 600 grand in 10 years from this sort of thing and my family have benefitted ever since.

Just being rude to people because you've done your brains and are clearly envious of them and the fact that the top hurdlers seem to be this side of The Irish Sea at the moment is pathetic. We all get it wrong, me as much as anyone else but I don't resort to slagging others off to make my own existence seem more tolerable.

Hurricane Fly will in all probability beat Thousand Stars and Oscars Well again at Punchestown, possibly with The Real Article and a couple of handicappers chancing their arm for some place money but that won't change the fact that on the day that matters he wasn't good enough at Cheltenham.

Pedrobob you're spot on. Nobody knows if it's a 1 off or if it's the start of something. Same as with Fly, nobody knows if that CH was just a bad run or if it's the beginning of a decline.

Only morons, who clearly backed RoR and are just rubbing it in peoples faces saying "We knew he'd win, he's the 2nd coming etc.."

As I've pointed out earlier, I backed Katchit and Punjabi in back to back years and not once did I come on here an proclaim them the next big thing. I accepted that they ran a great race was very happy and we'll see how they follow on from it.

I actually was certain Binocular would win the following years Champion hurdle after Punjabi won and backed him, only to trade out of the bet weeks before the race. Plenty of idiots on here were slating Binocular and his backers after that race. Why because this is betfair forums, a sess pool of clueless idiots.

Point is there are plenty of races coming that will tell us more about RoR and Fly among other horses.

I used to only back value the week of the festival, but have become a big antepost player in recent years as have more capital to play with. So back horses on here I know will shorten, that's all I care about. Then in late feb I start trading out of every bet usually at an overall profit and move it all to my fancied selections nrnb with Bookies. It all very fiddly and mathsy.

If you can spot ones who shorten you can end up with free bets on many short priced favs. As a rule of thumb once a horse gets too short I lay my stake back. I try to price up my selections myself and as a rule lay them when they get too short.

All this needs lots of liquidity. Also in running odds for Cheltenham are always crazy. Sizing Europe 1.21, Boston bob 1.33 (somehow) Long run 1.5 etc...

So in running lays for you stake back also works wonders. It's just a big amalgamation of different angles. I try to make notes of lessons for following years too. Learn from mistakes is very important.

Fundamental to racing is the simple fact every horse has its price. you need to make decisions on price alone.

interesting strategy, cv. Do you apply the same to daily racing (eg get out in running at shorter odds) or do you mainly focus on antepost?

Yes Pedrobob,

I did some analysis on my past betting with the help of form.betfair.com which tells you in running lows and highs for horses. I found that if I'd just doubled my stakes on horses rather than betting ew and then put and in running lay up at 1/4 the odds to save stake I'd have come out with more profit in the long run. It was a little less useful for big priced horses, like say 20/1 or higher so I still do ew on horses that big price.

I bet every day usually and keep a record of every bet I place in a spreadsheet and review my bets monthly to try figure out what went right and wrong. So I had good data history to analyse.

My reading of it is that HF despite him winning the 2011 renewal may not be as well suited to the normally faster ground at chelt as he is around Punchestown on slower going, he won well, but Ruby got serious with him and at the cold end of the day he's around a couple of lengths better than Peddlars Cross over the Chelt c/d and we dont know really what that equates to, thats not to knock him as he may have beaten the runner up far more easily on easier ground in Ireland.

The fact that now his age and his c/d form wouldnt compel me to back him to regain his crown back at the festival

zilzal, from experience I know it's very very hard to draw definitive conclusions from a single race. Someone could easily make the case (as the rptv antepost lads did in jan this year) that Fly got better with each run last season and that with only 1 run before chelts this season he wouldn't be in same form as last year.

There are loads of angles and views one could take on the race. Take Punjabi in 2008, he was beaten fair and square by Katchit, yet went on to win in 09 with Katchit back in 5th.

I remember having wars with people on here who said Kauto was not good left handed and only good right handed back before his 09 Gold Cup. Horse has now won 6 grade 1s left handed. There are no definitive conclusions in racing, just little bits of info and angles that influence your betting decisions.

Any wise punter would have a price he'd be willing to back RoR or Fly at. Rather than saying one or the other cant win it again.

And this is why you get shocks at the Festival as bigger field, faster ground and some early pace you get there are hardly replicated all throughout the winter months in the build up.

So we're unlikely to find out until around 4-00 on the 1st day of Cheltenham next year

I can see the angle CY, but the horses age worries me a bit and personally think there's more of a chance that injuries can catch up with him for the potential upside in the price shortening, but thats just me

Im only really involved in ante post in the spring(and NH from Chelt-Whitbread) anyway, i was lucky to back ROR without the fav at 8-1 before the festival

thanks for sharing your angle on betting strategy, cv, including the 1/4 odds IR lay.
Is there a minimum price you will back at or is there no such thing, could a 1/10 shot be value in your eyes?
You mention that you have carried on backing 20/1+ shots ew.
What is generally the maximum price that you find yourself playing at on daily bets, what sort of price range do you generally find the large proportion of your winners in?

You can tell its raining in the Holiday break again

I've strapped myself in and wil take 'em all on

I have just the one of particular interest today, pedrobob.  It went out to my subscribers overnight.

Prime Exhibit and Chapter and Verse are my stabs at today, missed he 13-2 the former that Powers put up yest, but 11-2 suffices