Cheltenham Festival
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will Ruby jump ship?
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probably wont meet again and no
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surely Rock On Ruby will stay hurdling?
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ROR will never go to Ireland.
HF may come over next year but only if there's a little more cut in the ground (and Ruby will ride) - but ROR still wins. |
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rumor is that chasing awaits
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Why wouldn't HF come over next year, he got beat because he wasn't on his A game not because he wasn't good enough, like ruby said he smashed oscars well a few weeks back and this time struggled to get past him, i don't believe for one minute what we were all calling the best champion hurdler since istabraq and perhaps beyond is finished, HF hasn't had a straight run at it this time around and if you want to gauge how good ROR is , just remember that only two horses got into the race and one of them was overturn.!!
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What are you saying about Overturn?
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"The best hurdler since Istabraq" based on ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
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1 grade 1 ffs outside of Ireland,his C/h was one of the slowest in ten years.
Hardy Eustace Brave Inca ???????????????????????????????? |
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Overturn is a better hurdler than Peddler's Cross.
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Looks like Overturn is now better than Peddler's Cross based on that if you believe Walsh didnt fk it up.
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Who cares now, Hurricane will not be a legend he is not even a Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace when we all start looking back. It also showed why Mullins is a poor trainer he still has a problem preparing one to the minute for the really competitive big 4 Festival races. Ok sticking a mare who outclasses the others year on year. With Hurricane it showed he has to get them ready on the track he is hopeless at cotton wool jobs.
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Who cares now, Hurricane will not be a legend he is not even a Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace when we all start looking back. It also showed why Mullins is a poor trainer he still has a problem preparing one to the minute for the really competitive big 4 Festival races. Ok sticking a mare who outclasses the others year on year. With Hurricane it showed he has to get them ready on the track he is hopeless at cotton wool jobs.
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Has anyone considered that was actually Hurricane Fly's true level? At the highest level outside of Ireland the form of his win simply has not stood the test of time. It comes back to the Bino vs Fly debate somewhere on the forum: People's perception of class and right now I think in a couple of years when people look back and compare Bino's and the Fly's Champion Hurdle win they may well be saying Binocular never really got the credit in comparison to the lovefest the Fly enjoyed.
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I think the last poster is right and the Newbury form in November, Rock On Ruby beating Raya Star 10 lengths conceding 13lbs was the key to the race. Hurricane Fly is a very good horse but probably better on soft ground and can't concede ground against top class horses who don't stop. Binocular was brilliant on the day he won his Champion Hurdle but it's difficult to know which Binocular is turning up.
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Ruby said he wasn't going from early and Willie knew at the top of the hill he didn't have much chance.
Am convinced Hurricane Fly was below form by a stone and very confident that he will still prove the best of all of these. At least a good price next time! |
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it was just a one off race!
hot pots get beat all the time. by this logic you are actually suggesting overturn is a superior horse to h'fly  they stole the race from the front, nothing else got in to it and ror's stamina won out. if ror came to punchestown he would get absolutely thrashed by hurricane fly, THRASHED! |
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fwiw, mccain said PC worked 'all over' overturn in a gallop the other day too.
the winner is a good horse but completely false result imo. |
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Prior to last seasons CH I didn't rate HF and was surprised he was able to beat Peddlers Cross. He then
went on to win well in Ireland after which I believed he could be the best 2m hurdler since Istabraq. I think this seasons CH exposed Hurricane Fly as nothing more than a below average CH winner and possibly a fortunate one. If Overturn had set a quick pace last year I'd be pretty confident Peddlers Cross would have beaten him. Overturn set a fast pace this year and Hurricane fly was exposed as being overrated(I include myself as someone who overrated him) and ROR was a very worthy winner. The excuse that he was flat cuts no ice with me as the special horses are usually immune to stable form(plenty of Nicholls horses looked out of sorts and Big Bucks looked dull pre-race yet still won). Hopefully HF will mop up some hurdle races in Ireland and go off a false price for next years CH. I think one of the worst things a punter can do is be unwilling to change his views on a horse by having to admit to a mistake. Not admitting a mistake may massage the ego but it's crippling to the bank balance. |
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I would love to see Rock On Ruby and Noel fehily go to Ireland.
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Booster, I find it absolutely comical that you come here and say the piece of form that was the key to the Champion Hurdle was a handicap won by a horse off 145 (what would Binocular or Hurricane Fly or even Overturn of done to this field off 145??) and use the 3rd who has clearly improved plenty since as the marker for the form conveniently ignoring that there is not one PLACE since from any of the other runners that day.
It's pretty clear to me those at the front stole this race. The only way Overturn could be in the mix was by setting the correct fractions (again it is conveniently ignored he was beaten out of sight in last year's champion by those who believe Hurricane ran to the same form), fair play to Maguire and Fehily for excellent rides. I am absoluetly confident that Rock on Ruby will prove to be a fluke winner of this race. |
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I certainly don't believe Overturn has improved 20 lengths on the Fly, how can anyone? Probably because it suits their agenda, I know a lot were keen on Overturn to make the frame so while basking in the smugness of their success they will not be keen to see it as a fluke.
For me the Fly wasn't near his best, Binocular who knows certainly not me, and the top 2 stole it. This suits my agenda as I was a heavy Fly backer and couldn't see Overturn placing.  |
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Alot will be revealed in the weeks ahead. Both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup left me a little flumexed this year.
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I dont want to get into having a go at HF,cos i do think he is better than that,think hes proved it.
What i will get into though is praising ROR.Really think it would be folly to dismiss him as a fortunate winner,he may have been in the fact that HF werent at his best and AP rode a bad race(imo),but ROR was up with the pace all the way and quickened decisively round the bend and was going away at the end. If a horse can travel as he does and quicken like that plus stay further,then hes a hurdler that will be hard to beat over Churdle conditions. Had HF been at his best and AP had jumped Bino off closer to the pace,then its possible we could have had a different result,but certainly not definite. As for Ireland,personally dont care,for me its all about the horses race that they are trained to peak at,and that was at Cheltenham. |
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You're typical betfair thread.
 Anyone who thinks they can draw definitive conclusions from a single race is not very shrewd at all. Fly was beaten in one race but he's won 10 grade 1's. Given the form of the Mullins string and the fact his prep was nothing like his prep the year before then it's quite possible he wasn't at his best. RoR had been beaten in every grade 1 he contested before the Champion hurdle, the champion trainer didn't judge his talent to be high enough to be trained by himself and the horse was shipped off the the satellite yard. He could well have stolen the race. The point is both horses have plenty of questions to be answered and hopefully both will be there next year to have a rematch. People who know the sport know the champion hurdle is littered with unexpected winners, Sublimity looked impressive winning the race in 2007 what did he do after that? Also Kauto star went into the 2008 Gold Cup with a huge winning streak in Grade 1s and he was beaten and beaten again at Haydock. He was written off, yet came back to post the best winning performance in the Gold cup since Arkle. So hold your horses people, there's plenty left to be decided. You have to look at the fact both horses are priced up as having a 15% chance of getting there and winning next year. There's no hot pot fav this time. |
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HF supporters will find a get out clause if he goes on to get beat next year. "oh, he's just not as good
as he once was" "Somethings niggling him" .When all along he was a below average CH winner who benefited from a lack in quality of Irish 2m hurdlers and a slow early pace in the 2011 CH. Of course I cann't prove this as a fact and its only an opinion, but hopefully it's an opinion that will bare financial fruit. [i]RoR had been beaten in every grade 1 he contested before the Champion hurdle, the champion trainer didn't judge his talent to be high enough to be trained by himself and the horse was shipped off the the satellite yard. He could well have stolen the race.[/i] This is a conveniant misuse of stats; what has been missed out is ROR is 3/4 over 2m and his only defeat was a narrow one. As for stealing the race, does this not happen when the leaders go off slow and pinch a lead whilst putting in little effort.It didn't happen here Overturn went off fast from the start. There may have been a slight speed bias ,but the front 2 never stole the race. |
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You are more than welcome to your opinion tinkler. Why I wouldn't rate your opinion in the slightest is because you are writing off one horse based on one run and rapidly elevating another based off one run.
Anybody with a bit of impartiality would agree the jury is most certainly out on both horses. Was Fly below his best or is it a bubble burst? Is RoR the real deal or did he just steal the race. Wise punters will ask these questions and always keep an open mind. It's dangerous writing off a horse on one run and similarily dangerous putting too much faith in one run. Plenty of questions to be answered by both. But what's always amusing is how the previous years races are always a weak renewal. Every year |
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Whatever way you look at that race,nothing can sway me from the fact that ROR was a darn good winner.
A horse that runs up with the pace,quickens off it and wins going away cannot be knocked. Its pretty much the perfect CHurdle winner imo,doing it that way. Can he repeat that? who knows?? Mighty impressive though. |
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Jury is very much out on all of the Champion Hurdle runners for me, and as for the ROR vs Fly debate, I'm sitting on the fence so much I need tweezers to get the splinters out of my arse!!
Massive fan of the Fly, and immediately made excuses for him; but the more I have looked at the Champion Hurdle the more I see Rock on Ruby as a good winner going away at the line; whether he can win another one is a big unknown at the moment. I've also made no secret of my liking of Overturn, so "just because he beat Overturn" doesn't make him a poor winner imo. As for Peddlers "working all over Overturn", allegedly Vendor was working "all over Grumeti" and Royal Guardsman was "working all over Cue Card", so I take statements like that with a pinch of salt. If the Fly and RoR were to meet again and I had a free bet, I'd back the Fly, but I wouldn't use my own money and would just watch. I'd be very very surprised if Ruby jumped ship from the Fly. I have no doubt (personal point of view) that The Fly is a classier horse, but Rock on Ruby beat him fair and square, with no hard luck stories. For what its worth, the Fly was my biggest ever loss, but had my best ever festival, so it's easier to take. Haven't lost the faith in him, but doubt I will back him at really short odds again - and despite the defeat, he's pretty certain to go off a solid fav for all of his upcoming races. I see very little value in the Champion Hurdle market, at 6/1 the front two. Was Rock on Ruby a one race wonder? Has the Fly's bubble burst? At 12's Spirit Son offers little value having missed the year. |
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Plenty of questions to be answered that's for sure. But would people expect Fly to reverse form with Overturn if or when they meet again?
Also as for RoR I think he is a horse who's price is more likely to remain stable or drift as I would be worried about him winning the Aintree Hurdle given his run there last year was awful and the flat track could mean he gets out paced while people will keep close tabs on him. He'd also be vulnerable in a Fighting fifth and again in the christmas hurdle. So would probably go for the bula. But with Fly, you'd imagine he'd likely go unbeaten from now to next years champion hurdle meaning far more likely to have a price shorten. Taking a price now and laying the stake back before the off next year would be a prudent imo. |
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Hurricane Fly is 8 now, 9 next year. Maybe his natural regression has started.
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That's a distinct possibility.
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I think the problem for Fly lovers is one of their own creation. As soon as all this 'best since Istabraq', no, hang on, 'better than Istabraq, 'the best ever maybe' started, I, for one, raised an eyebrow. I'm sure many others did too. Unless you're a believer, which I'm not, that guff can really turn you off a horse.
He's done nothing to suggest he could cope with Istabraq and has it all to prove now imo. I've also heard he's a nasty pice of work and everyone in the yard hates him! ...and I don't know where you got that stuff about RoR from, CV - he was taken to the satellite because of a problem with the main Ditcheat gallops. I'm sure Nicholls would deeem a horse with his record as good enough to stay with him! |
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Nope he was with satellite yard prior to the problem with ditcheat Headmaster.
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Do you know when he was moved, CV? I'm really struggling to accept the horse was moved due to a perceived lack of talent.....
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I believe he's never been in Ditcheat (i.e. since he was purchased). isn't Richard Barber who runs the satellite one of the owning syndicate?
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Barnesy, comical or not that was the way it panned out and, as I took 16-1 for Cheltenham on the morning of the Christmas Hurdle, I think I'm right to say that. Which other piece of form proved better on the day? Zarkandar's Betfair victory against the horse Rock On Ruby blew out of the water at Newbury? Hurricane Fly's trot round Leopardstown against inferior horses? Binocular's Wincanton defeat of Celestial Halo? Please advise as I obviously missed it and to say you're confident he'll prove a fluke just smacks of having missed out on the day. None of us know if he'll prove a fluke but, as long as people ignore the form book, there'll be value for the rest of us to keep making a second income from betting. He may well not run his race at Aintree although I personally think he will but any price over 3-1 will be attractive enough to make me want to back him and, as for people saying Hurricane Fly would thrash him at Punchestown, who'd want to go for a second rate Grade 1 at the end of a long season when he can run at Aintree next weekend then be put away for a crack at the race which really counts in March. Hurricane Fly can beat the same horses he always does in Ireland but it won't change the fact that he wasn't good enough on the day that mattered and couldn't pick Rock On Ruby up when the jockey asked him to 3 out.
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That isn't true about ROR he's always been with R Barber.
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I backed Punjabi in the 2009 Champion hurdle and I won that day, he beat the fav Binocular. But I know things sometimes go right for horses on the day. That's racing, it went right for him and me that day.
What I didn't do was come out and start slating all Binocular backers and say Punjabi is the best horse around he was always going to win, he'll bolt up next year...etc. I judged Punjabi the following year on what he'd done that season and he hadn't held his form. So people with any bit of a racing head on them will not be proclaiming him next years winner already. As for morons like booster below calling Irish racing second rate, people like you let us have epic years of winners like we did last year. Pretty sure we've had plenty of champion hurdlers in the past decade to show what a moronic statement slating our Grade 1 hurdle races is. More champion hurdlers win our Champion Hurdle than win the Aintree Hurdle. |
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Where have I called Irish racing second rate? I'm no moron but can ignore your insults - I said the race is a second rate Grade 1 which it is. I subscribe to a very well known Irish tipster who has made me a profit in all the years I've been with him and even he acknowledges that the Grade 1s at Punchestown are not the best. This year I know he fancies Captain Chris and, as someone who took 25-1 for Planet Of Sound to win your Grade 1 Gold Cup 2 years ago, I think I know it doesn't take a top class horse to win there. That horse has never won since and the race was nowhere near the standard of our own Gold Cup. The fact is it comes at the end of a long season and the form is unreliable on many occasions. Hurricane Fly was beaten by a better horse on the day, not a luckier horse, just a horse who ran faster than him in all parts of the race.
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