Burton Port - I don't get it?

By that I mean if we have the other horses running to their potential. Obviously if Long Run jumps poorly or the years and his mishap take their toll on Kauto.....

you mean apart from:-

already having beaten the fav in a Championship race at the Festival
never having been out of the first two in a chase
proven to stay the trip from the Hennessey
being given an easy to avoid beating LR at Newbury
Kauto Star being too old at 12
the rest of the field being rubbish handicappers?

other than that I can't think of anything

Now you put it like that where do I sign?

8/1 still available I believe

8/1 still available I believe

You mean apart from him never winning a Grade 1 in his life?
Hurdle or Chase

**** me you miserable coont the poor lad suffered a fecking injury and was off the track through no fault of his own for best part of 16 months

beat fecking long Run in the RSA so don't you think he might have won one if he hadn't got injured? Ran a massive race in the Hennessey too

Kauto too old at 12?  Whether he wins or not I think he has shown twice this season he still has ability to win Grade 1's against this opposition.

I can see Burton Port running into a place too, but I would be surprised to see him come out on top

You posted up a lot of stats for all different races earlier judo,im not 100% certain,but i'd hazard a guess and say i doubt there's been many Horses who's first Grade 1 was a Gold Cup,i could be wrong though.

i dont really get why you keep harping on about him getting the better if LR in the RSA,that was a long time ago,i think its pretty obvious LR has improved a lot since then,a few horses have got the better of LR since then,doesn't mean if they turn up on friday that they'd have a chance of confirming the form,it was a long time ago now,and that hennessey in which he was runner up is worth jack shít as everything apart from Denman was running with no weight on their backs

Brave as a terrier this little horse. He hangs on the coat tails and snaps at the ankles in the home straight. One of my favourite horses who i have never backed. Is he a late improver? Maybe.

Actually your points have reasurred me and I can sleep easily again. I thought you were coming at it from some angle that I hadn't considered and that worried me. I'm going to deal specifically with the issue of Long Run because the rest can fend for themselves:

He hasn't actually beaten Long Run has he? He beat the horse which later became the Long Run we now know. That horse along with Burton was walloped by Weapons Amnesty but given that this one has fallen off the radar and so comparison is made more difficult it should be remembered that they also barely squeaked by Knockara Beau. Admirable and consistent horse though that one is he is no world beater. So I'd argue that race would be one for the straw clutchers.

He hasn't been out of the first two in a chase. Which proves he is tough, genuine and above all else consistent. All admirable traits but crucially given the fact he has some to find not traits which jump out at you that you may have a springer on your hands. All pointing to place prospects.

He didn't prove he stayed the trip in the Hennessy. Like One Man before him he proved that he got the trip at a flat track with 10 stones on his back and there is a world of difference between that and lumping nearly 12 stones up a hill 3 times. Especially for one so slightly built as Burton.

I don't think the win or loss at Newbury amounts to an awful lot. For his chances in the gold cup you should be jumping up and down at the tender way Geraghty rode him. Had he really got stuck into him he may have won by a small margin. Equally we may have found to what extent Long Run was dossing in front. The point is that he was getting 10 lbs on a flat track over 3 miles when we know that had last years gold cup been run over 3 miles Long Run would probably have been third. The final quarter mile saw him take about 10 lengths out of Denman and more out of Kauto.

My final point is the issue of improvement. He needs to show it to beat Long Run. I don't for one minute think Long Run was primed for the Newbury race. The aim has been the gold cup repeat in my view. A case could be made that Burton has improvement to come because he hasn't had that many runs, has had time off and should improve for Newbury. I'm not going to go into the issue of the bounce or the fact that they say that because he is such a slight, light framed horse he is easy to get fit and therefore there may not be as much improvement to come as people think. My final point is to suggest that people look at just how much juice has already been squeezed out of the horse. His RSA run was his 16th. Hardly any horses are that experienced wwhich then miraculously leap to the top of the tree having run to a mark somewhere in the 140's at the time.

yes the point about LR is valid - he has improved

however, who are you to say that Burton Port would not have improved even more in the same period of time if he had not been sidelined through injury? There is no way you can say he wouldn't have maintained the form throughout had he not had an absence.

I think there is every chance he can make up for lost time and both KS and LR have significant trends to overcome on age and defending champion

8/1 is still a nice price and the rest of the runners don't appear to have anything like the class required

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Burton Port could win the Gold Cup. His last run after a long break was very promising, and on that form he wouldn't have to improve too much to turn the tables on Lomg Run (who doesn't quite looks to have reached last season's level of form) and Kauto Star (aged 12 and after a very problematic week or so).

Over chases anyway.

we will see EO

judorick

You can't be serious about the defending champ angle? How many trends did Long Run break when he won as a 6 year old. The fact is that we know that bar Kauto over a flat 3 miles he is already running like the second best horse. We also know or can strongly suspect that he will relish that last hill when others are crying enough. Of course I can't say for sure that Burton wouldn't have gone on to imrpove markedly but my point stands that he was a very experienced horse when he contested the RSA.

Is Diamond Harry still going for the Gold Cup?  Because if you are talking about horses who have beat other horses this one has beaten Burton Port twice and is a 40/1 shot.

Indeed we will see. As I say I just wanted to see if I could flush out an angle which I hadn't considered. If you've got nice prices I hope you've backed it each way.

Eeternaloptimist - do you think the jockey situation will have an impact i.e. do you think Long Run would be better served by a different jock or that Sam W-C is the best man for the job? And does this make a difference to his prospects?

Long Run had also run 14 times before the RSA, so I don't think you can use that as a negative for Burton Port about improvement.

i think people are just looking for something to beat LR for the sake of it,i'd love Kauto to do it,but cant see it happening,
So outside of that its wide open,but the problem is,outside the top 2 is a yawning gap ability wise,
But hey,Something has to come out of the woodwork,i'd be more inclined to look at a horse like Quel Esprit if your looking for a surprise,a young and improving horse who could find even more improvement as he steps up in trip as opposed to one who's career has been halted by injury and is yet to strike at Grade 1 level

no yawning gap to Burton Port and that is easy to conclude

Looks like Diamond Harry is still going for the Gold Cup from what I can see after having a wind op following his last run at Cheltenham.  40/1 NRNB looks a massive price and I could easily see that horse running into a place.

Quel esprit won a grade 1.. Yes but come on more like a grade 2...
Nortons coin,cool ground never won a grade 1 before winning gold cup

JOCI

I'd be a fool if I suggested that someone like Geraghty isn't a far better jockey than Sam. Even so I do think that the difference can sometimes be exagerated. Pick a horse which neither have ridden and I'd guess that Geraghty would be 7-10 lbs the better man. The point is that Geraghty rides all over the place and may not have been on a horse many times before it runs. Long Run is one of Sam's few rides and so he will have established an affinity which sees them together as a team muddle through.

It is a bit like a litigant in person in law. He may beat an experienced lawyer purely on the basis that he knows the case inside out and the lawyer might have got the brief the night before.

Mr Mulligan hadn't won a grade 1, nor had Jodami, Cool Dawn or Master Oats and going back further I'm pretty sure that neither The Thinker or Charter Party had!

Lots had only won grade 1s in novice company, War of Attrition a Punchestown novice chase beating a 146 horse by 1L
Best Mate's only G1 was the Scilly Isles Novice Chase beating Crocadee on heavy ground.
Makes Quel Esprit's grade 1 look quite good!

dtamutants

I disagree. There is plenty of evidence which suggests that horses coming over from France benefit greatly from a summer break to acclimatise. I don't think that Long Run got that in his novice campaign. Throw in the fact that (unlike Burton several times) this thorough stayer had never seen 3 miles in France and I think there is ample scope for asking just how much juice was squeezed out of Burton prior to the RSA?

What I have already conceded is that his Newbury run suggests that he does have a very good chance of a place if he truly acts on the track, if he stays the distance on the track and if the imposition of an extra 10 lbs on such a slight horse doesn't disproportionately negatively affect his chance.

it takes imagination

the horse was on a steep upward curve of form prior to his injury which happened when he was 6yos just after the Hennessey having run 7 times over fences winning 5 times and placing 2nd the other times. He had climbed form an initial RPR of 145 to 170 on his final start and run a massive TS of 168.

Unfortunately he was unable to continue that progression due to injury and we didn't see him again til the Aon chase this year. And what RPR did he produce? Only a lifetime best of 171

Geraghty reported that the horse had a good blow twice during the race and it is my contention that he was given a considerate ride given the return from injury and the fact he was facing his stablemate who happens to be the reigning Gold Cup winner and favourite. Nicholls is quoted as saying that if Long Run had been trained in any other yard Burton Port would have gone past.

So, how does a horse that has been off injured for 16 months manage to run a lifetime best when tenderly ridden and having a good blow?

The answer is that he is now 8 years old and has matured and strengthened, filled out and become a fully developed horse whilst he has been resting and recovering. He was only 6 when he was running in the RSA and Hennessey and reaching RPRs of 170; now, let us imagine he didn't get injured for a moment and continued his career. Which races would he have run in after the Hennessey? The King George maybe? Certainly the Aon Chase and the Gold Cup. Having then turned 7yo what level of performance might he have reached IF he continued that improvement? After all he beat Long Run in the RSA and Long Run went on to improve HIS RPR by another 23lbs then RSA 2010 to the Gold Cup 2011.

What if Burton Port made a similar level of physical improvement to LR standing in his box and simply has not had the opportunity to show it until now?

Can you imagine it now? How much can he improve for the run (he was off from 27/11/10 to 17/02/12 which is a long time)? Yes he might bounce but equally he might come on plenty for it and be ready to show how much he has improved during his time off.

Outside LR, BP and KS I can't imagine any of the other runners being good enough and for me Kauto is a most unlikely winner at 12yo coming off a training set back and having to reverse C&D form from last year.

This then leaves me with a short list of two and I have very good reasons to believe the one at the bigger price is the value to turn over the other on the list.

Only takes some imagination

what does anyone make of the above post that I bashed out while watching Andy Murray get blown off the court 6-4 6-2 by the world #92 at 4.20am?

sounds like you were watching a gay tennis match to me
but top marks for the post

For anyone who is keen to back Burton Port I thought you might like to know he is best priced 9/1 with stan james for today only

nice

Judorick

I think you would be making a fair case for Burton if the race was run at Newbury, over 3 miles and he carried 11 stones. The fact that it is at Cheltenham, over a quarter mile further and he has to carry 12 lbs more will in my view negatively affect his peak capability for the reasons I have given previously. He needs to greatly improve his RPR from Newbury because as it stands he holds a similar chance to the likes of Weird Al, Synchronised and indeed arguably Grands Crus if he ran.

You make a good argument for saying that this could be the case. My case is that any physical improvement from Newbury is likely to be offset by the negative factors I have listed. Which would leave him with a lot to find with both Long Run and indeed Kauto.

as I said it takes imagination (to be able to think he will make the required improvement in form which anyone with a brain can see he needs in order to win)

I was just putting a plausible case for where that improvement will come from

EO, I'm not convinced at all that Newbury suits BP.  It's a course for tall, powerful long striding horses.  If anything it is more suited to Long Run as he is a big horse who got a better rhythm round there than he can round Chelts.  Accept the argument put forward before that the new course is more galloping than the old course and that possibly explains why LR handled the CGC better than his 2 prior visits, but still relative to Newbury it will help BP in relation to LR.

I think burtons got a good chance if nothing else because I think he'll be staying on better than long run at the end. This gold cup wont be set up for LR like the last. Imo Long runs only got his new 'stayer' tag since hes been exposed as being a slowcoach if he has to work hard. Burtons doesn't look the fastest either but I think he'll being travelling faster than long run at the end.

PGMaNoT, agree with that completely.  The stayer tag is largely based on him going past old horses that were feeling the very fast ground in last year's CGC.

...although it would be a problem if the ground comes up that fast again because it will be much harder to draw the sting out of LRs kick. On normal good to soft ground though Im thinking that the RSA from 2010 could be pretty much the gold cup blueprint to come...LR and BP different but a similar level with weapons amnesty too good for the both of them.

judorick
11 Mar 12 12:28
What does anyone make of the above post that I bashed out while watching Andy Murray get blown off the court 6-4 6-2 by the world #92 at 4.20am

A good post,and im now having him on my side.

cheers

I think the Long Run stayer tag has more to it than him merely staying on better than a couple of old horses. He stayed on better than all the field including the first and second in the recent Argento. It is also based on the fact that he was being pushed along on the final bend when he ran on so strongly to win his King George. He also looked like he would be beaten by 10 lengths in this years King George and came home like a stayer.

Peasegiveme.......

Presumably you think that Knockara Beau would be in third if he were running?

Judorick

I take issue with your suggestion that Burton Port imrpoved throughout his novice season. His official rating dropped towards the end of that season and he beat Knockara Beau easier at Ascot before Cheltenham than he did in the RSA.

take issue with what you like

I was talking about the Hennessey on nov 27th where he got an RPR of 170 and the RSA where he got 158 - both ran in the same calendar year when he was 6yo

he clearly improved massively from his first to 7th start and there is every reason to believe he would have continued to improve throughout 2011 had he been racing as many horses do

why should he not make the same progress as Long Run after only 7 runs? Long Run had raced 14 times before the RSA

I'm the kind of bloke who backed Arctic Cosmos for the Leger after the Gordon stakes (finished 3rd) because I could imagine how he would improve, and Poets Voice at 16/1 ante post for the QEII stakes, Rooster Booster in the October at 25/1 and Red Lancer in the Chester Vase at 14s precisely because I imagine the improbable actually being very likely. The improvement Burton Port needs to find is only imaginary at the moment but if Long Run can improve 23lbs from the 2010 RSA then there is no reason why Burton Port can't also although he might need a few runs to get to that level but still worth the risk at the prices I got

EO,some good judges had burton port as there gold cup selection after his hennesey run(paul jones for one).
Now bp is back,better than before according to trainer,and if he wins it it should suprise no one

Have a 40/1 voucher for this one in my pot so would make me a very happy lad if he won as make nice profit, has him as one of my jackpot horses in this race

By: Eeternaloptimist
Peasegiveme.......
Presumably you think that Knockara Beau would be in third if he were running?

No, my poorly constructed post meant that I cant think of a reason why the proximity of WA, BP and LR to each other in the 2010 RSA isnt a fair yardstick for their talent over 3 miles on good to soft - but i admit my post sounded like im predicting them as 123 next year which would be stupid. To be honest my knowledge of knocakara beau is a bit limited
Long Run? Stayer? Still no for me. Kempton isn't a place to prove stayers and neither was lightening fast ground at cheltenham last year. Everything else LR has done over 3 miles is under a blanket with Burton Port, Weird Al, Diamond Harry etc

But my point is that this could only be an accurate reflection of their merits if you take into account the proximity of a consistently reliable horse like Knockara who pretty much always runs to a mark between 140-150. Judorick is making a clear and consistent case that Long Run improved by a load and that he believes that this may also be the case with Burton. Either that has to be the case or they must have run to high 160's in the RSA for your case to stand up. Had that been the case then this would have shown up with Knockara Beau and he has never shown anything like that form. Interestingly he has twice come up against Midnight Chase and been beaten around a dozen lengths. Midnight Chase was beaten about 20 lengths in last seasons gold cup. Which is another strand in this argument that Long Run improved massively from the RSA to the Gold Cup.

Of course that wasn't a smooth and uninterrupted progression. Don't forget that Long Run wasn't able to win a poor Mackeson off an effective mark of 153 the following season but that he was able to absolutely shiit all over a good field of novices in his first race in this country which was over 3 miles at Kempton as a 4 year old.

My case is that he came from France and like many which do he put up his best performance and then regressed until he "acclimatised". His Mackeson run was a prep to get him right for the King George which was his aim for last season where he posted a very high mark. I don't believe that he was quite as good in the Gold Cup but he was still good enough to beat reliable yardsticks.

My view is that the Gold Cup is the aim and that he is being primed to peak for that race. Newbury was a pipe opener having been let down after the King George. The other horses are being rated against a horse which was having a prep run and thus the form is suspect. What makes it even more suspect is that both What A Friend and Burton Port were also being primed for their main aim of the Gold Cup.

I'm questioning whether the conditions of the Gold Cup will suit Burton not whether he could have beaten Long Run at Newbury as I believe he could have.

I'm certainly looking forward to finding out.

aww yeah gotta live for finding out these puzzles totally agree

will be buzzing

i'd like to think Burton port will continue improving,but Horses who have long injury lay offs rarely do,

But if he does end up winning the GC,i'd be happy to see,not financial wise,just the fact his owner is one of the best National Hunt owners out there,a very rare breed indeed

Good post EEO, i see what youre getting at with Knockara Beau. LR is certainly a bitch to handicap and I cant really make the case for BP without knocking LR so will do it on a gold cup thread later in the week.

With a clean round of jumping and a stronger pilot, I believe Knockara Beau would have a 160-165 run in him. Sadly i doubt we'll ever find that out

Its funny how different people see things differently. I find Long Rung relatively easy to assess. You ignore his first run of the season which is essentially a pipe opener and he then runs to somewhere between 175-180 depending on how you view an individual performance. Last year there was a much closer gap between the King George and the Gold Cup. This year I thiunk theyt ook the view that with sucha stuffy horse he would need a prep run which put him in a halfway house position of being more forward than on his first runs back but not quite cherry ripe.

I remain convinced that the Gold Cup is the aim and that if he jumps reasonably it will take at least a high 170's performance to beat him.

Incidentally on the issue of him staying I've just had another look at last years race and to me it confirms the impression I've had every time I've watched it. he gets tapped for toe coming down the hill having been well placed and then runs on whebn he meets the rising ground. The horse which I think was interesting is What A Friend who was ridden essentially to place and was given a very patient ride. he wasn't put into the race to win it but to pick up the crumbs if the others cut each others throats. Partly why I feel Long Run is a strong stayer is that What A Friend was about 3-4 legnths behind Long Run at the 3 mile makr and had about 7-8 lengths taken out of him despiute having that aforementioned considerate ride. Essentially I'm ignoring the runs of Denman and Kauto for that purpose.

I may be wrong but I do feel that Ruby will ride Kauto to seek to hit Long Run with a burst of speed probably just after the home turn and hope he lasts home if he can get an even paced race. I think he knows that the way to beat Long Run on a 3 mile park course is not the same as over a quarter mile further at Cheltenham.

Excuse the spelling. It's late.

burton port is going to creep into it from 3 out and outstay the lot up the hill

mark miwordz

Long Run blundered his way round the RSA as a mere 5yo.
He's a 35-40 length better horse now.
Blundered his way round the Gold Cup last year and he at least looks a safer jumper this season.
His win at Newbury (course record) been grossly underestimated giving 10lbs to the 2nd and 3rd, latter only beaten 11 lengths in last years Gold Cup. Arguably Long Run's best lifetime form, so amazed at the knockers.

Mot playing devils advocate but Burton backers could argue that the problem with that logic is that Burton Port was handled so tenderly that if he comes on for the run and improves for the step up in trip then why shouldn't he beat Long Run if that is the best that Long Run has to offer?

My argument is that it wasn't.

Can't you tell that Cheltenham is almost upon us? I go to bed and can't sleep and the first thing I do is get back into the form books and back on here.

Long run is being knocked because he has been put in his place this year,beat twice at short prices,
By a horse way past his prime.

And yet this horse way past his prime has beaten horse touted on here as live candidates by an easy 10 and 20 lengths in those races. Must have been some prime.

I fully expect Kauto to make me sweat.

Eeternaloptimist, as its your thread and youre talking long run, I will join you

I say hes difficult to assess because theres still different possible answers to the questions he throws up - regression/improvement, fully tuned/not fully tuned, ideal conditions/not ideal conditions. Yes, its easy to fit together that he improved after a break and has then been campaigned at the later races but I find it just as easy to fit together that hes had ideal conditions for his good races.
Maybe im misjudging races to fit this but I see it as:

RSA - Not good enough over a testing 3m on good to soft
Paddy power - Not good enough over a testing 2.5 on good to soft
King George - ideal sprint off on a flat track
Gold cup - ideal sprint off on fast ground
Betfair - Not good enough over a testing 3m on good to soft
King George - more testing race than previous KG - specifically made that way by Ruby
Denman - ideal sprint off conditions

(I may be wrong about this but i always thought the fastest way around any track is to leave enough in the tank for a sprint near the end which is why I have judged his 2 track records as being raced that way)

Must have been some prime.....
Kauto star is a  modern day racing legend,and he is past his best..fact
.

I'm a massive massive fan of this horse. Got a very large bet on him at 33/1 E/W. In the run in you'd fancy Long Run as long as he has a good trip round, but I love the way this one's progressed and he looks a real animal and I don't doubt his stamina. My gut feeling is he's a shoe in to finish in front of Kauto and is Long Run's main and only danger. I've backed Long Run quite heavily at 5/2, was hoping for more after his Boxing Day defeat but wasn't to be. Burton Port is a monster, and you'll see that on Friday, it's just Long Run might be a bigger monster. He's a great bet to beat Kauto Star though, should be heavy odds on to do so, not odds against.

Not backed kauto star but its beaten long run twice this season and long run beat burton port giving it 10 pounds,PAST ITS BEST,you sure about that Jasey,ide rethink that comment.

well he may be past his best,but hes been the best chaser at around that distance this season

Kauto is not a betting proposition at 7/2 nor is Burtons at 7/1.  I don't think the RSA form is relevant (other than for my large ante post bet at 25/1 on the horse that hammered the pair of them

The value in the market is probably to find which of the outsiders will be run to achieve a place - quite a few of them would have a better chance of challenging on softer including my selection Time for Rupert and I can see a very fast paced race and a lot of tiring horses/mistakes which might just set it up for him to nick third from off the pace

Kauto star is past his best.
Did i say that he's not the best chaser

jasey

You didn't say he was past his best. You said he was way past his prime. I don't think his runs this season would agree with that view.

His prime was winning gold cups m8,and he is not at that level any more

Pleasegiveme

There is always room for interpretation but I simply can't have a suggestion that he was outstayed over two and a half off 153 in a below par Mackeson and yet won a Gold Cup because they went a snails pace and he was able to outkick them. Have you seen the race? It was an extremely fast brutal race which despite watering up to the meeting (didn't do that a few years ago) was way faster than standard because of that pace.

He didn't have a sprint off to win his King George. Nacarat set a perfectly respectable pace and Long Run was being pushed along trying to stay with that pace on the home turn only to run on strongly.

These races are freely available on you tube. Have another look and tell me if your theory still stacks up in your view?

jasey

No it wasn't. He was never at his best winning Gold Cups. That is a fallacy. He won Gold Cups because of his class. He was always at his best on a flat 3 miles which played to his strengths. The official ratings clearly show this. They also show that he is in far better form this year than last.

I agree his class won him gold cups,at a course that he as run as many bad runs as good.

Once again I disagree. The lay outs of the new and old course are as diferent as night and day. Plenty of horses haven't been able to cope with the almost constant turns and undulations of the Tues/Wed course which suit beautifully balanced more compact horses but have left unaware punters scratching their heads in disbelief when they have run far better races on the less undulating and more galloping orientated Thurs/Fri course. He failed on the Tues course and he failed over an inadequate distance on his pipe opener on half of the Fri course. he made no mistake in the real deal.

I take it your on kauto

You take it wrong. I'm on Long Run and I fear a stalking ride from Ruby.

you should be fearing you know who

That's why I'm hiding away in bed with the covers over my head trying not to think about you know who. Are you trying to give me nightmares?

Point i am making Jasey,is that he may be past his best but he goes into the race with the best form at around that distance this season,so even if hes past his best does not discount him from winning.

I agree with that.
Just my opinion kauto won't win.
For me LR is the most likely to win,but after watching this season unfold,it would not suprise me if there was a shock winner

tanya stephenson makes it her NAP of the Festival!

Are you sure? Her charity bet was Fox Appeal with Lesley Graham going for Burton Port.

was NAP of the festival not her charity bet for today, they gave a list of all of them at the end

Fair enough. If the Stephenson wedge is down I'll give Nicky a ring and tell him to save Long Run for another day.

Sorry. I wasn't clearer. I taped the morning line and rather than the charity bet of the day I'm pretty sure that Burton Port was given as Lesley Graham's nap of the festival and not Tanya's.

We really are scrabbling around at this stage for evidence.

I'm not scrabbling for anything I just thought it was interesting

EO.
Am i right in thinking you have this has a two horse race

Yes it is between Long Run and Burton Port

Thought you on burton

Silly to totally rule out the best chaser on form this season imo

yes it is a two horse race but I prefer BP at the prices

Last 12 yo winner of GC was in 1969, horse has had training set back and has to reverse C&D form with Long Run - don't see how he can win, nothing silly it's called an opinion

yes,and its my opinion that its silly,as hes the best chaser on form.

He's beat LR twice,but over gold cup trip LR beats kauto

yer probably right,but hes still got a chance.
anyway good luck chaps.

jasey

On the basis of my honestly held view I think it is a one horse race and that horse is Long Run. There is a certain logic which I can see which would give 3 or 4 other horses a chance of beating him but that relies on his jumping as poorly as last year. One of those is Kauto and another is Burton.

Sorry. It sounds as if I am discounting the others. I'm not. I'm picturing each horse giving what I think it is capable of on the day and on that basis on the likely ground, course and pace of the race I think Long Run is the most likely winner. Racing is and will always remain an enigma for which is one of the reasaons why we all love it.

Eeternaloptimist

Have rewatched but seen them plenty anyway. The gold cup was fast but i wouldnt describe it as brutal. For his first KG - does Paddy Brennan looking through his legs coming round the last bend really look like hes trying to make it a test? Rewatching these isnt easing my lingering doubts about LR in testing races (but it wouldnt be the first time my race reading has cost me money!)

I'm taking nothing for granted. They make fools of us all.

They fookin did today

Only one in my case but it was bad enough.