Burton Port - I don't get it?

By that I mean if we have the other horses running to their potential. Obviously if Long Run jumps poorly or the years and his mishap take their toll on Kauto.....

Now you put it like that where do I sign?

8/1 still available I believe

**** me you miserable coont the poor lad suffered a fecking injury and was off the track through no fault of his own for best part of 16 months

beat fecking long Run in the RSA so don't you think he might have won one if he hadn't got injured? Ran a massive race in the Hennessey too

You posted up a lot of stats for all different races earlier judo,im not 100% certain,but i'd hazard a guess and say i doubt there's been many Horses who's first Grade 1 was a Gold Cup,i could be wrong though.

i dont really get why you keep harping on about him getting the better if LR in the RSA,that was a long time ago,i think its pretty obvious LR has improved a lot since then,a few horses have got the better of LR since then,doesn't mean if they turn up on friday that they'd have a chance of confirming the form,it was a long time ago now,and that hennessey in which he was runner up is worth jack shít as everything apart from Denman was running with no weight on their backs

Actually your points have reasurred me and I can sleep easily again. I thought you were coming at it from some angle that I hadn't considered and that worried me. I'm going to deal specifically with the issue of Long Run because the rest can fend for themselves:

He hasn't actually beaten Long Run has he? He beat the horse which later became the Long Run we now know. That horse along with Burton was walloped by Weapons Amnesty but given that this one has fallen off the radar and so comparison is made more difficult it should be remembered that they also barely squeaked by Knockara Beau. Admirable and consistent horse though that one is he is no world beater. So I'd argue that race would be one for the straw clutchers.

He hasn't been out of the first two in a chase. Which proves he is tough, genuine and above all else consistent. All admirable traits but crucially given the fact he has some to find not traits which jump out at you that you may have a springer on your hands. All pointing to place prospects.

He didn't prove he stayed the trip in the Hennessy. Like One Man before him he proved that he got the trip at a flat track with 10 stones on his back and there is a world of difference between that and lumping nearly 12 stones up a hill 3 times. Especially for one so slightly built as Burton.

I don't think the win or loss at Newbury amounts to an awful lot. For his chances in the gold cup you should be jumping up and down at the tender way Geraghty rode him. Had he really got stuck into him he may have won by a small margin. Equally we may have found to what extent Long Run was dossing in front. The point is that he was getting 10 lbs on a flat track over 3 miles when we know that had last years gold cup been run over 3 miles Long Run would probably have been third. The final quarter mile saw him take about 10 lengths out of Denman and more out of Kauto.

My final point is the issue of improvement. He needs to show it to beat Long Run. I don't for one minute think Long Run was primed for the Newbury race. The aim has been the gold cup repeat in my view. A case could be made that Burton has improvement to come because he hasn't had that many runs, has had time off and should improve for Newbury. I'm not going to go into the issue of the bounce or the fact that they say that because he is such a slight, light framed horse he is easy to get fit and therefore there may not be as much improvement to come as people think. My final point is to suggest that people look at just how much juice has already been squeezed out of the horse. His RSA run was his 16th. Hardly any horses are that experienced wwhich then miraculously leap to the top of the tree having run to a mark somewhere in the 140's at the time.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Burton Port could win the Gold Cup. His last run after a long break was very promising, and on that form he wouldn't have to improve too much to turn the tables on Lomg Run (who doesn't quite looks to have reached last season's level of form) and Kauto Star (aged 12 and after a very problematic week or so).

we will see EO

Is Diamond Harry still going for the Gold Cup?  Because if you are talking about horses who have beat other horses this one has beaten Burton Port twice and is a 40/1 shot.

Eeternaloptimist - do you think the jockey situation will have an impact i.e. do you think Long Run would be better served by a different jock or that Sam W-C is the best man for the job? And does this make a difference to his prospects?

i think people are just looking for something to beat LR for the sake of it,i'd love Kauto to do it,but cant see it happening,
So outside of that its wide open,but the problem is,outside the top 2 is a yawning gap ability wise,
But hey,Something has to come out of the woodwork,i'd be more inclined to look at a horse like Quel Esprit if your looking for a surprise,a young and improving horse who could find even more improvement as he steps up in trip as opposed to one who's career has been halted by injury and is yet to strike at Grade 1 level

Looks like Diamond Harry is still going for the Gold Cup from what I can see after having a wind op following his last run at Cheltenham.  40/1 NRNB looks a massive price and I could easily see that horse running into a place.

JOCI

I'd be a fool if I suggested that someone like Geraghty isn't a far better jockey than Sam. Even so I do think that the difference can sometimes be exagerated. Pick a horse which neither have ridden and I'd guess that Geraghty would be 7-10 lbs the better man. The point is that Geraghty rides all over the place and may not have been on a horse many times before it runs. Long Run is one of Sam's few rides and so he will have established an affinity which sees them together as a team muddle through.

It is a bit like a litigant in person in law. He may beat an experienced lawyer purely on the basis that he knows the case inside out and the lawyer might have got the brief the night before.

dtamutants

I disagree. There is plenty of evidence which suggests that horses coming over from France benefit greatly from a summer break to acclimatise. I don't think that Long Run got that in his novice campaign. Throw in the fact that (unlike Burton several times) this thorough stayer had never seen 3 miles in France and I think there is ample scope for asking just how much juice was squeezed out of Burton prior to the RSA?

What I have already conceded is that his Newbury run suggests that he does have a very good chance of a place if he truly acts on the track, if he stays the distance on the track and if the imposition of an extra 10 lbs on such a slight horse doesn't disproportionately negatively affect his chance.

what does anyone make of the above post that I bashed out while watching Andy Murray get blown off the court 6-4 6-2 by the world #92 at 4.20am?

For anyone who is keen to back Burton Port I thought you might like to know he is best priced 9/1 with stan james for today only

Judorick

I think you would be making a fair case for Burton if the race was run at Newbury, over 3 miles and he carried 11 stones. The fact that it is at Cheltenham, over a quarter mile further and he has to carry 12 lbs more will in my view negatively affect his peak capability for the reasons I have given previously. He needs to greatly improve his RPR from Newbury because as it stands he holds a similar chance to the likes of Weird Al, Synchronised and indeed arguably Grands Crus if he ran.

You make a good argument for saying that this could be the case. My case is that any physical improvement from Newbury is likely to be offset by the negative factors I have listed. Which would leave him with a lot to find with both Long Run and indeed Kauto.

EO, I'm not convinced at all that Newbury suits BP.  It's a course for tall, powerful long striding horses.  If anything it is more suited to Long Run as he is a big horse who got a better rhythm round there than he can round Chelts.  Accept the argument put forward before that the new course is more galloping than the old course and that possibly explains why LR handled the CGC better than his 2 prior visits, but still relative to Newbury it will help BP in relation to LR.

PGMaNoT, agree with that completely.  The stayer tag is largely based on him going past old horses that were feeling the very fast ground in last year's CGC.

judorick
11 Mar 12 12:28
What does anyone make of the above post that I bashed out while watching Andy Murray get blown off the court 6-4 6-2 by the world #92 at 4.20am

A good post,and im now having him on my side.

cheers