Powerful mordin Stat for next week-Darlan???

How many were fancied? these throw away stats are useless. What if he did it from 1986 would his stat be ruined?

Just checked the Raceform database going back 8 years which covers the last 36 of them,  8 were under 10/1, here's the list

horse name-horse suffix-horse age-sp-position-0-00-days since run-race title-ospsort
Psycho-IRE-7-5/1-2-10-12-33-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-5.000
Quel Esprit-FR-6-11/2-6-11-07-2-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-5.500
Robin Du Bois-FR-5-7/1-8-10-06-26-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-7.000
Perle De Puce-FR-5-8/1-P-11-00-73-LETHEBY & CHRISTOPHER SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1)-8.000
Miss Sarenne-FR-4-8/1-18-10-10-30-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-8.000
Sway-FR-4-9/1-11-10-11-16-DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1)-9.000
Jayo-FR-4-9/1-8-10-12-17-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1)-9.000
On Raglan Road-IRE-6-9/1-4-11-07-48-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-9.000
Patriarch Express-GB-9-12/1-8-11-10-21-LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-12.000
Miss Academy-FR-4-16/1-4-11-12-18-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A (LISTED RACE) (1)-16.000
Tumbling Dice-IRE-6-16/1-3-11-01-53-CORAL CUP (A HANDICAP HURDLE) CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
Demi Beau-GB-7-16/1-29-10-05-349-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
On Raglan Road-IRE-7-16/1-11-11-01-348-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
Golden Bay-GB-8-20/1-18-10-04-25-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-20.000
Sky Hall-IRE-6-20/1-13-10-06-83-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-20.000
Inch Pride-IRE-7-25/1-7-10-11-115-CORAL CUP (A HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-25.000
Counting House-IRE-5-25/1-7-10-05-78-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-25.000
Shoreacres-IRE-6-25/1-7-11-07-32-WILLIAMHILL.COM SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-25.000
Zanir-FR-7-25/1-13-10-07-28-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-25.000
Stars Du Granits-FR-4-28/1-16-11-10-25-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-28.000
Dusky Lord-GB-8-33/1-8-10-05-108-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-33.000
Trompette-USA-5-33/1-11-10-00-48-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-33.000
On The Way Out-IRE-6-33/1-9-11-07-23-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-33.000
Carrick Oscar-IRE-9-33/1-21-11-01-60-MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS' HANDICAP HURDLE (2)-33.000
Eleazar-GER-9-50/1-15-10-06-145-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-50.000
Fiepes Shuffle-GER-6-50/1-14-11-10-38-SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Regal Exit-FR-8-50/1-13-10-00-26-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-50.000
Vino Griego-FR-5-50/1-8-11-07-17-SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Trop Fort-FR-4-50/1-20-11-00-36-JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Zilcash-GB-4-50/1-4-11-07-45-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1)-50.000
Miss Academy-FR-5-66/1-19-10-00-48-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-66.000
Indian Pipe Dream-IRE-7-66/1-15-10-01-76-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-66.000
Kings Bay-GB-6-100/1-10-11-00-37-BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 2 (1)-100.000
Dalvento-IRE-7-100/1-15-11-07-68-BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 2 (1)-100.000
Izita Star-GB-7-100/1-F-10-06-99-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-100.000
Astonville-FR-12-500/1-13-11-10-289-SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1)-500.000

Will be amazed if this stat is beaten..horse has it all to prove. If he does, that'll be top to watch cos it'll have to be huge by very definition..but..the price is ridiculous. Happy to watch.

I have previously shared my thoughts on this very subject with some friends of fine. I shall now also provide the same discussion for you good folk.
The Mordin stat that given the horse fell last time out should mean Darlan shouldn’t win at the Festival. But why? The more relevant way of looking at the stat is that the horse didn’t win, and if he hadn’t fallen you couldn’t be sure that he would have gone on to win the race.

As the last race in question was the Betfair (Totesport) Hurdle it adds further fuel to the argument. That race is amongst the most competitive races of the calendar, so the usual stuff from the Racing Post needs checking. They’ll always publish pre- and post- race RPR’s to show what was required to win the Supreme. All lovely figures to tuck into…….but in the case of Darlan, one needs to tread carefully.  All of the previous winners I can see had their prep race in a novice event and not one of the top handicap’s of the year. It was also Darlan’s 4 run of the winter, so no cobwebs. The figure estimated by Mr RPR was 149 (in the Betfair), taking into account his predicted finishing position in the race. Roughly level with Raya Star.

He should therefore not win the Supreme if that RPR assessment holds true, and the evidence to date says he should indeed be opposed at the price.

Get Me Out of Here is the proof in the pudding, as he was a winner of the Totesport and came 2nd in the Supreme…….almost identical RPR’s were applied by the rater for those performances by GMOOH. The rater’s are obliged to benchmark senior races against certain horses; with the novice races they can assume that improvement is still taking place.

I note that JP MacManus has also used the ratings issue to justify his belief in the horse......but has he taken into account my rationale regards Darlan having run in the Betfair last time out and not a novice race with the implications on how the raters assess such races.

Dont think this is a meaningless stat at all. It actually says the complete opposite imo, and tells us preparation is everything going into top class races.

I'd also suggest it proves what an effort it was from Grumeti to win his trial just a week after he hit the deck at Newbury. I know it was not a festival race so technically the stat would not apply, but at least it says something about the horses ability imo, and it was a strong race with the form already franked.

I agree with ming that the stat is far from conclusive on  the evidence of the last 8 years. The fact that so many of those horses were unfancied tells its own story though.  Tells you maybe that the market generally knows last time fallers struggle in Cheltenham hurdle races?   Logic says it is difficult for hurdles fallers to come out and win here though so I'd factor that in to the price you'd want.

Also I'd ask how many of those were close to winning their previous race when coming down? Closest I can think of to this situation, is another Henderson novice, Spirit River who looked like winning the Betfair when making a horrendous mistake 3 out bad enough to make him finish only 17th.  He came out and won the Coral Cup.  But he was 14/1 in the Coral Cup which suggests to me he wasn't treated by the public as being a winner without a penalty.  Different situation here.  The market seems to be treating Darlan as if he had won the Betfair.   He didn't and we don't really know if he would have done, as much as my pocket likes to think he would have!  So while I don't think the stat says he can't win, he looks horrible value to me at his current price.

Duncan, you miss the point.

JP McManus has highlighted that the pre-race RPR is generally several pounds lower than the post-race RPR (for the Supreme), and that he expects (extrapolates) that logic to say that Darlan will improve by several further pounds and will therefore attain a figure typical of a Supreme winner.

As I point out Get Me Out of Here attained almost an identical RPR in both the Totesport as it was and the Supreme. The issue is not the finishing position in the latter race, it is the perceived improvement between the two race. Apply the same logic to Darlan and it would be expected that he’ll fall short in the Supreme.

Thieves,

yes, it is that very point. Is the RPR figure of 149 as good as he is? the inference is down to the nature of the race he attained it in......one of the toughest handicaps of the year, and he's also had a few starts to reach his peak. No new kid on the block.

You'll see the stats guys telling you (in the Racing Post) about pre and post race RPR and typical winners......but you'll notice recent winners all prep'd in Novice company. So I believe the RPR figures to be skewed when compared to what would be alloted to a horse coming from a race such as the Betfair Hurdle.

So whose rating present the most likely winner ?

So whose rating present the most likely winner ?

I suppose Galileo's Choice as he already has a 151 in the bag.  The others that are within the 142+ bracket in last 2 starts are Midnight Game 148 Dylan Ross 147 Cinders 144 Trifolium 143 Monksland 143 Prospect Wells 143 Tetlami 142 Montbazon 142 Molotof 142

I'd kick out Molotof on ground of absence and Prospect Wells as a 7yo French bred.   Still leaves 8. 
Those concerned about avoiding flat bred horses for this, only GC and MG from that list started out on the flat.  Both have done pretty solid ratings on ground softer than they will find at the festival so I'd be pretty wary of avoiding those 2 myself and I'd put those 2 plus Montbazon up as three against the field.  Think Montbazon profiles a bit better than the others on the list.

cheers judo, whatever the problem was it sorted itself out...

THANKS

This thread gives me great hope as a Darlan backer because when a horse is totally written off & the stats say he cannot win - we all know what happens!

dumb advice

combine the two plus good sets of ratings

eliminate those that strictly fail on the KEY trends and work through from there, there are strong trends that stand up year on year for decades so ignoring them is not a sensible long term betting strategy

This thread gives me great hope as a Darlan backer because when a horse is totally written off & the stats say he cannot win - we all know what happens!



Well back it then @ 5-1 -- appalling price

GALILEO'S CHOICE has ran to a very high standard on ground that he is not at  his best on .

Every year a stat gets smashed. Put down the stats and read the formbook. This is a new year, totally different to all those previous

Best piece of advice I've read in a while

I just dont see what the Arkle of 1986 has to do with, whether Al Ferof will outstay SS in teh ARkle or get outpaced.
Stick to the formbook and you wont go far wrong. Could not believe people's reason for laying HF in last year's Champ Hurdle is that he wouldnt come up the hill cos he's a Montjeu, even though he won over 2 mile 4f in France.
Elton's John's brother cant sing either.

If Big Buck's fell lto is he a massive lay for the World Hurdle? No because we know he's a class above. This is a stupid stat.

Dreadful English!

*They can help when combining them common sense, the form book, your instinct, market moves, views from connections etc etc - rather than looking at one thing in isolation.

Zealot - I'm already on & 16's avge as have been backing the horse since Nov started @ 32's & quite agree 5's an awful price considering all the negatives. I actually threw my remark in here knowing it would be a 'cat amongst the pidgeons' & to be fair whats been written is very informative & only goes to prove everyone has thier own ideas about 'finding the winner'. This race would appear to be wide open & is probs best avoided as a betting proposition but it's CHELTENHAM & we all want a piece of it.
Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan?
GL to everyone
For what it's worth I think course winning form is important here so have backed Tetlami also. Dylan Ross I think was & still is very good value as 2nd four times on the trot against some useful anilmals always running on at the end this could be his day.

1. GMOOH won the Betfair off 138, Darlan was running off 146
2. The fact that GMOOH came second and ran to its level, yet McCoy chose to be on Darlan is a big clue as to whether it would have finished in front of that horse imo