Cheltenham Festival
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Powerful mordin Stat for next week-Darlan???
Powerful mordin Stat for next week-Darlan???
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How can it be a stupid stat MM when no horse has achieved it?
It gives you an insight into just how important the preparation is when contesting these top races. Lets see how Darlan and Colour Squadron get on. Two horses from top yards with decent form in the book and plenty of supporters. I am not a stats slave by any means and no one is saying they are the holy grail, but neither is the form book. |
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Thanks Mr M for a usefull opinion. The fact that he fell last time out might not stop him winning but it sure makes a difference when considering his value in a competitive race like this. I watched the Betfair again and we all know it was run at a slow pace but when Darlan fell they were possibly going at their fastest. My concern for Darlan would be that he will have to jump more hurdles at a fast pace than he did in the Betfair race where he never really lifted his legs off the ground and just plunged at the hurdle.
Would you really want to take a short price after that? |
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it was way too early to say where Darlan would have finished. If you watch it again youd notice that Sailors Warn was still swinging at the time too and he finished 6th. Even Ruby said on Monday Darlan may have won or may have finished 15th nobody knows. The bare form of Darlans only run at Cheltenham wouldnt entitle him to finish in the first ten not alone win. With so many truly unexposed horses in the race Darlan must be one of the worst antepost favourites of the festival currently
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It's a terrible stat. Kauto Star fell the other day even closer to the festival. If he runs does he have no chance? Oh wait no he gets away from the killer stat as he did it in a schooling ring. It makes no sense does it tbh and doesn't relate to a horses ability or it's chance unless it is a terrible jumper anyway.
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Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan?
Of all the horses in the history of racing that have fallen and either bounced back or failed to bounce back, why would you place particularly significance on Grumeti? |
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I'm not on Darlan but the stats actually dont say he cant win according to RP Book.
He actually hits every single stat other than won last time. He, alongside GC, Monty and Tetlami are the shortlist |
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what about trainers stats in supreme no winner for twenty years.
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it was way too early to say where Darlan would have finished. If you watch it again youd notice that Sailors Warn was still swinging at the time too and he finished 6th.
Well lets say he would have finished joint 6th - gives him the clear beating of Steps to Freedom imo. That races proves to me he has the engine to win the race. I don't particularly like stats but I think this one does have merit.....unfortunately. If a horse falls it could mean that it is a poor jumper and that obviously isn't going to work at the Festival. In the case of Darlan, he is generally a good jumper, not brilliant but by no mean slow. However the fall must leave some kind of mental scar and that may well mean he or any other horse will be a little more cautious next time out and again, in the context of the festival, will be a major disadvantage. |
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crap stat...he won it in 1992 with Flown and there wasnt a Festival in 2001 due to foot and mouth, so he's won 1 of last 19 renewals (not 0 in 20 yrs) plus had recent 2nds with Binocular and Spirit Son.
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that's replying to 1:46
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how many shorties beaten in the 19! years duncan?not so much a crap stat as a crap record. by this time next week it may well be twenty years.
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duncan idaho - I don't place particular significance on Grumeti, I simply used him as an example of how a horse can bounce back in a relatively short space of time simply because he had been mentioned by Sint in the thread. Horses are like humans & each will be different we don't even know how they're thinking - if at all, at least we can speak. Truth is we don't know how Darlan, Kauto Star or Colour Squadron will be after thier falls. If all three run dismally then I suppose that adds a lot of credence to the 'stat'. As I replied earlier to Zealot I was already on Darlan before he fell so am where I am I could have traded off but am happy to give the horse a chance maybe the odds are stacked against him but he doesn't know that. The value had gone for me on others (I was already on Dylan Ross also) so I shall just have to hope. If you want big prices you have to takes your chance (at least he runs) if you want to know all the facts you can wait for the day. GL
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how many shorties beaten in the 19! years duncan?
you tell me....i'm presuming there's plenty |
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it was a poor stat cos it was inaccurate for starters
i've just looked at the last 10 yrs and by my reckoning he's only had 2 runners start shorter than 8/1 (from total of 15 runners:- 2nd 5/1 2nd 8/1 3rd 2/1 3rd 11/1 3rd 20/1 3rd 20/1 4th 11/1 unpl 17/2 unpl 11/1 unpl 14/1 unpl 16/1 unpl 22/1 unpl 25/1 uns rdr 1st 25/1 pu 8/1 doesnt strike me as a particularly bad record |
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duncan idaho Date Joined: 08 Mar 03
Add contact | Send message When: 07 Mar 12 23:11 Joined: Date Joined: 08 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 8,728 | Blogger: duncan idaho's blog Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan? Of all the horses in the history of racing that have fallen and either bounced back or failed to bounce back, why would you place particularly significance on Grumeti? I made a comparison with Grumeti because he bounced back and Won at Cheltenham, probably the most difficult place to do it. It is not because I have backed him, honest.  |
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Sint - you & porkie pies don't go together too well! It's common knowledge Grumeti's come in at least 4 points on the weight of your wagers.
I've kept DB & have nibbles on Ut DS & West Brit. Sadly main bet's on Urb DS & I don't think the rain's gonna come so not even sure he'll turn up? We had a good dollop in the North West Tues night but I'm told it missed Cheltenham. By all accounts it drains like a sieve anyhow. |
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Didn't Spirit Son fall at Newbury before dotting up in the Coral Cup?
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Sorry, meant Spirit River.
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Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.
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Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.
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Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.
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Not sure UDS will be risked either Solving. We'll see, ground might be safe enough.
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Thats is where we beg to differ then Sint. For me it s all about the formbook. Stats for me have no significance. Will BB and Quevega not win because 4 on the bounce hasnt been done before? Its totally different and should be judged year to year
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This is the only horse that mc manus gave at a preview night, he said mc coy told him he would win and that it was good enough for him.
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Not sure what the overall stat is on horses that fell in their last hurdle race but I cann't remember
it being particularly significant. There have been a few high profile horses that have fallen in there last hurdle race this season ,Grandouet fell 2 out at wincanton then won his next 2 races Oscar Whisky fell at the last at Ascot then won his next 3 starts Olofi took a very heavy fall at Newbury then ran a good race a few weeks later at the same track. Maybe there are some high profile cases were it was not the case this season but I cann't think of them off hand. Maybe if you have a quality animal and they fall at a hurdle it sharpens them up at the hurdles. Could this be the case for Darlan as connections seem to have come out with glowing reports on his hurdling since the fall and he's from the same stable as Grandouet and Oscar whiskey. |
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Mr RPR seems to have adopted the line I expected when rating the Supreme.
Darlan awarded 148 for coming 2nd. 1lb less than the Betfair Hurdle assesment. Worth bearing in mind for next year if a horse comes from a handicap in its prep race....no noticeable improvement. |