Powerful mordin Stat for next week-Darlan???

How many were fancied? these throw away stats are useless. What if he did it from 1986 would his stat be ruined?

Exactamondo

Just checked the Raceform database going back 8 years which covers the last 36 of them,  8 were under 10/1, here's the list

horse name-horse suffix-horse age-sp-position-0-00-days since run-race title-ospsort
Psycho-IRE-7-5/1-2-10-12-33-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-5.000
Quel Esprit-FR-6-11/2-6-11-07-2-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-5.500
Robin Du Bois-FR-5-7/1-8-10-06-26-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-7.000
Perle De Puce-FR-5-8/1-P-11-00-73-LETHEBY & CHRISTOPHER SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1)-8.000
Miss Sarenne-FR-4-8/1-18-10-10-30-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-8.000
Sway-FR-4-9/1-11-10-11-16-DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1)-9.000
Jayo-FR-4-9/1-8-10-12-17-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1)-9.000
On Raglan Road-IRE-6-9/1-4-11-07-48-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-9.000
Patriarch Express-GB-9-12/1-8-11-10-21-LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-12.000
Miss Academy-FR-4-16/1-4-11-12-18-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A (LISTED RACE) (1)-16.000
Tumbling Dice-IRE-6-16/1-3-11-01-53-CORAL CUP (A HANDICAP HURDLE) CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
Demi Beau-GB-7-16/1-29-10-05-349-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
On Raglan Road-IRE-7-16/1-11-11-01-348-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-16.000
Golden Bay-GB-8-20/1-18-10-04-25-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-20.000
Sky Hall-IRE-6-20/1-13-10-06-83-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-20.000
Inch Pride-IRE-7-25/1-7-10-11-115-CORAL CUP (A HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-25.000
Counting House-IRE-5-25/1-7-10-05-78-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-25.000
Shoreacres-IRE-6-25/1-7-11-07-32-WILLIAMHILL.COM SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-25.000
Zanir-FR-7-25/1-13-10-07-28-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-25.000
Stars Du Granits-FR-4-28/1-16-11-10-25-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-28.000
Dusky Lord-GB-8-33/1-8-10-05-108-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-33.000
Trompette-USA-5-33/1-11-10-00-48-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-33.000
On The Way Out-IRE-6-33/1-9-11-07-23-ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1)-33.000
Carrick Oscar-IRE-9-33/1-21-11-01-60-MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS' HANDICAP HURDLE (2)-33.000
Eleazar-GER-9-50/1-15-10-06-145-CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (1)-50.000
Fiepes Shuffle-GER-6-50/1-14-11-10-38-SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Regal Exit-FR-8-50/1-13-10-00-26-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 3 (1)-50.000
Vino Griego-FR-5-50/1-8-11-07-17-SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Trop Fort-FR-4-50/1-20-11-00-36-JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 (1)-50.000
Zilcash-GB-4-50/1-4-11-07-45-FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1)-50.000
Miss Academy-FR-5-66/1-19-10-00-48-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-66.000
Indian Pipe Dream-IRE-7-66/1-15-10-01-76-PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1)-66.000
Kings Bay-GB-6-100/1-10-11-00-37-BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 2 (1)-100.000
Dalvento-IRE-7-100/1-15-11-07-68-BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 2 (1)-100.000
Izita Star-GB-7-100/1-F-10-06-99-VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1)-100.000
Astonville-FR-12-500/1-13-11-10-289-SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1)-500.000

That's an awesome post Thieves. Did you say 36? Those at the back say aye.

Will be amazed if this stat is beaten..horse has it all to prove. If he does, that'll be top to watch cos it'll have to be huge by very definition..but..the price is ridiculous. Happy to watch.

Great post thievesrus - it suggests to me that there is no statistical proof here... the results are what we would expect from these prices.

Horses that are unseated LTO probably fare as good as that.

I have previously shared my thoughts on this very subject with some friends of fine. I shall now also provide the same discussion for you good folk.
The Mordin stat that given the horse fell last time out should mean Darlan shouldn’t win at the Festival. But why? The more relevant way of looking at the stat is that the horse didn’t win, and if he hadn’t fallen you couldn’t be sure that he would have gone on to win the race.

As the last race in question was the Betfair (Totesport) Hurdle it adds further fuel to the argument. That race is amongst the most competitive races of the calendar, so the usual stuff from the Racing Post needs checking. They’ll always publish pre- and post- race RPR’s to show what was required to win the Supreme. All lovely figures to tuck into…….but in the case of Darlan, one needs to tread carefully.  All of the previous winners I can see had their prep race in a novice event and not one of the top handicap’s of the year. It was also Darlan’s 4 run of the winter, so no cobwebs. The figure estimated by Mr RPR was 149 (in the Betfair), taking into account his predicted finishing position in the race. Roughly level with Raya Star.

He should therefore not win the Supreme if that RPR assessment holds true, and the evidence to date says he should indeed be opposed at the price.

Get Me Out of Here is the proof in the pudding, as he was a winner of the Totesport and came 2nd in the Supreme…….almost identical RPR’s were applied by the rater for those performances by GMOOH. The rater’s are obliged to benchmark senior races against certain horses; with the novice races they can assume that improvement is still taking place.

I note that JP MacManus has also used the ratings issue to justify his belief in the horse......but has he taken into account my rationale regards Darlan having run in the Betfair last time out and not a novice race with the implications on how the raters assess such races.

I have a stat which is pretty much on the nose, which I got from this forum a few years back and have added to it since; of the last 387 winners at Cheltenham only 13 have won when not completing LTO.

Dont think this is a meaningless stat at all. It actually says the complete opposite imo, and tells us preparation is everything going into top class races.

I'd also suggest it proves what an effort it was from Grumeti to win his trial just a week after he hit the deck at Newbury. I know it was not a festival race so technically the stat would not apply, but at least it says something about the horses ability imo, and it was a strong race with the form already franked.

Get Me Out of Here is the proof in the pudding


beaten a head

I agree with ming that the stat is far from conclusive on  the evidence of the last 8 years. The fact that so many of those horses were unfancied tells its own story though.  Tells you maybe that the market generally knows last time fallers struggle in Cheltenham hurdle races?   Logic says it is difficult for hurdles fallers to come out and win here though so I'd factor that in to the price you'd want.

Also I'd ask how many of those were close to winning their previous race when coming down? Closest I can think of to this situation, is another Henderson novice, Spirit River who looked like winning the Betfair when making a horrendous mistake 3 out bad enough to make him finish only 17th.  He came out and won the Coral Cup.  But he was 14/1 in the Coral Cup which suggests to me he wasn't treated by the public as being a winner without a penalty.  Different situation here.  The market seems to be treating Darlan as if he had won the Betfair.   He didn't and we don't really know if he would have done, as much as my pocket likes to think he would have!  So while I don't think the stat says he can't win, he looks horrible value to me at his current price.

LUFCW, last 8 years GMOOH was the only horse at under 10/1 to go to the Supreme from any handicap and he almost won it so I'd be careful on that one as a potential stat.  That said, looking through the history of Supreme winners not sure I can think of any that ran in a handicap. You would think Large Action would have won the Supreme in 1994 though if  he had run.  He won the race that is now the Betfair as a novice hurdler off a mark of 142 and next time out was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle getting an RPR 20lbs higher than that year's Supreme winner! 

Your logic that Darlan's RPR of 149 is as good as he is going to get is interesting though.  The threshold I use for backing in the Supreme is an RPR of 142 within last 2 starts but this takes into account likely improvement. Actually winning the race has required a performance of at least 150 in 8 of the last 9 years, according to RPRs.

Duncan, you miss the point.

JP McManus has highlighted that the pre-race RPR is generally several pounds lower than the post-race RPR (for the Supreme), and that he expects (extrapolates) that logic to say that Darlan will improve by several further pounds and will therefore attain a figure typical of a Supreme winner.

As I point out Get Me Out of Here attained almost an identical RPR in both the Totesport as it was and the Supreme. The issue is not the finishing position in the latter race, it is the perceived improvement between the two race. Apply the same logic to Darlan and it would be expected that he’ll fall short in the Supreme.

Thieves,

yes, it is that very point. Is the RPR figure of 149 as good as he is? the inference is down to the nature of the race he attained it in......one of the toughest handicaps of the year, and he's also had a few starts to reach his peak. No new kid on the block.

You'll see the stats guys telling you (in the Racing Post) about pre and post race RPR and typical winners......but you'll notice recent winners all prep'd in Novice company. So I believe the RPR figures to be skewed when compared to what would be alloted to a horse coming from a race such as the Betfair Hurdle.

You're right....if there's a point to all that, i'm defo missing it!

So whose rating present the most likely winner ?

Probably 90 % + of the time a horse  falling in it's previous start is a negative but in some instances it
could be looked as a positive. Darlan is probably a good example of an exception, he had a heavy fall and
was left to slow canter home in his own time and apparently got over the fall pretty quickly. But if he'd
stood up ,given the big prize on offer and Mccoy on board, you could pretty much expect he would have been
given the full treatment and have had a very hard race . Given that there is no great gap between newbury
and cheltenham he may not have had enough time to recover as he's a little on the lean side.
For supreme novice backers the fall could be a blessing in disguise.

So whose rating present the most likely winner ?

I suppose Galileo's Choice as he already has a 151 in the bag.  The others that are within the 142+ bracket in last 2 starts are Midnight Game 148 Dylan Ross 147 Cinders 144 Trifolium 143 Monksland 143 Prospect Wells 143 Tetlami 142 Montbazon 142 Molotof 142

I'd kick out Molotof on ground of absence and Prospect Wells as a 7yo French bred.   Still leaves 8. 
Those concerned about avoiding flat bred horses for this, only GC and MG from that list started out on the flat.  Both have done pretty solid ratings on ground softer than they will find at the festival so I'd be pretty wary of avoiding those 2 myself and I'd put those 2 plus Montbazon up as three against the field.  Think Montbazon profiles a bit better than the others on the list.

hey thieves, sent reply

cheers judo, whatever the problem was it sorted itself out...

cool mate!

THANKS

cash and go would have made the shortlist if that helps...

This thread gives me great hope as a Darlan backer because when a horse is totally written off & the stats say he cannot win - we all know what happens!

Every year a stat gets smashed. Put down the stats and read the formbook. This is a new year, totally different to all those previous

dumb advice

combine the two plus good sets of ratings

eliminate those that strictly fail on the KEY trends and work through from there, there are strong trends that stand up year on year for decades so ignoring them is not a sensible long term betting strategy

I go the other way round, use the ratings to get a short list, eliminate what I can on global stats then look at the race as an individual entity, see which from the reduced shortlist have the best profiles.

This thread gives me great hope as a Darlan backer because when a horse is totally written off & the stats say he cannot win - we all know what happens!



Well back it then @ 5-1 -- appalling price

GALILEO'S CHOICE has ran to a very high standard on ground that he is not at  his best on .

judorick     07 Mar 12 16:41 
dumb advice

combine the two plus good sets of ratings

eliminate those that strictly fail on the KEY trends and work through from there, there are strong trends that stand up year on year for decades so ignoring them is not a sensible long term betting strategy

Yeah cos "Favourites have a bad record in this race" really applies to SS, Gran Crus etc this year doesnt it? Didnt we have the Montjeu stat last year? Then there was the " Five year olds dont win the Champion" I've even seen nonsense of "Horses that havent won this calender year"
Different horses different year different circumstances. Cant be having stats really cant

Every year a stat gets smashed. Put down the stats and read the formbook. This is a new year, totally different to all those previous

Best piece of advice I've read in a while

A lot of guessing going on here imo

I just dont see what the Arkle of 1986 has to do with, whether Al Ferof will outstay SS in teh ARkle or get outpaced.
Stick to the formbook and you wont go far wrong. Could not believe people's reason for laying HF in last year's Champ Hurdle is that he wouldnt come up the hill cos he's a Montjeu, even though he won over 2 mile 4f in France.
Elton's John's brother cant sing either.

Using stats blind is stupid I agree, using them in a common sense way to help interpret the formbook is very sensible however.  Common sense tells us, for example, that every horse will reach a point when they start to regress.  Stats can tell us what age that is most likely to happen and can help us to work out what prices are value accordingly.  They can also tell us a lot about how the markets work and we can factor that in too.

If Big Buck's fell lto is he a massive lay for the World Hurdle? No because we know he's a class above. This is a stupid stat.

I'm not a stats person at all, but fully respect your point theives.  They can help when used when combining them common sense, the form book, your instinct, market moves, views from connections etc etc - rather than looking at one thing in isolation.

It's all a learning game and each to their own I guess

Dreadful English!

*They can help when combining them common sense, the form book, your instinct, market moves, views from connections etc etc - rather than looking at one thing in isolation.

Stats are taken into account to some extent in the price you get. Some of the best bets I've placed have been on horses with all the stats against them which has led to an inflated price. If  you want to back a
horse with the best speed rating , top officially rated ,all the stats in its favour and the trainers
bang in form, your very unlikely to be getting value price. In the past maybe ,but now these are common
knowledge and thinking outside these factors is probably the way forward.

Zealot - I'm already on & 16's avge as have been backing the horse since Nov started @ 32's & quite agree 5's an awful price considering all the negatives. I actually threw my remark in here knowing it would be a 'cat amongst the pidgeons' & to be fair whats been written is very informative & only goes to prove everyone has thier own ideas about 'finding the winner'. This race would appear to be wide open & is probs best avoided as a betting proposition but it's CHELTENHAM & we all want a piece of it.
Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan?
GL to everyone
For what it's worth I think course winning form is important here so have backed Tetlami also. Dylan Ross I think was & still is very good value as 2nd four times on the trot against some useful anilmals always running on at the end this could be his day.

sj
07 Mar 12 16:33
Every year a stat gets smashed. Put down the stats and read the formbook. This is a new year, totally different to all those previous

Same as well chief,best piece of advice ive heard as well.

I know its each to their own and i respect that,but i have to say i do get fed up with reading them on here.
And this years threads have had plenty!!

1. GMOOH won the Betfair off 138, Darlan was running off 146
2. The fact that GMOOH came second and ran to its level, yet McCoy chose to be on Darlan is a big clue as to whether it would have finished in front of that horse imo

How can it be a stupid stat MM when no horse has achieved it?

It gives you an insight into just how important the preparation is when contesting these top races.  Lets see how Darlan and Colour Squadron get on. Two horses from top yards with decent form in the book and plenty of supporters.

I am not a stats slave by any means and no one is saying they are the holy grail, but neither is the form book.

Thanks Mr M for a usefull opinion. The fact that he fell last time out might not stop him winning but it sure makes a difference when considering his value in a competitive race like this. I watched the Betfair again and we all know it was run at a slow pace but when Darlan fell they were possibly going at their fastest. My concern for Darlan would be that he will have to jump more hurdles at a fast pace than he did in the Betfair race where he never really lifted his legs off the ground and just plunged at the hurdle.

Would you really want to take a short price after that?

it was way too early to say where Darlan would have finished. If you watch it again youd notice that Sailors Warn was still swinging at the time too and he finished 6th. Even Ruby said on Monday Darlan may have won or may have finished 15th nobody knows. The bare form of Darlans only run at Cheltenham wouldnt entitle him to finish in the first ten not alone win. With so many truly unexposed horses in the race Darlan must be one of the worst antepost favourites of the festival currently

It's a terrible stat. Kauto Star fell the other day even closer to the festival. If he runs does he have no chance? Oh wait no he gets away from the killer stat as he did it in a schooling ring. It makes no sense does it tbh and doesn't relate to a horses ability or it's chance unless it is a terrible jumper anyway.

Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan?


Of all the horses in the history of racing that have fallen and either bounced back or failed to bounce back, why would you place particularly significance on Grumeti?

I'm not on Darlan but the stats actually dont say he cant win according to RP Book.

He actually hits every single stat other than won last time. He, alongside GC, Monty and Tetlami are the shortlist

what about trainers stats in supreme no winner for twenty years.

it was way too early to say where Darlan would have finished. If you watch it again youd notice that Sailors Warn was still swinging at the time too and he finished 6th.

Well lets say he would have finished joint 6th - gives him the clear beating of Steps to Freedom imo. That races proves to me he has the engine to win the race.

I don't particularly like stats but I think this one does have merit.....unfortunately. If a horse falls it could mean that it is a poor jumper and that obviously isn't going to work at the Festival. In the case of Darlan, he is generally a good jumper, not brilliant but by no mean slow. However the fall must leave some kind of mental scar and that may well mean he or any other horse will be a little more cautious next time out and again, in the context of the festival, will be a major disadvantage.

crap stat...he won it in 1992 with Flown and there wasnt a Festival in 2001 due to foot and mouth, so he's won 1 of last 19 renewals (not 0 in 20 yrs) plus had recent 2nds with Binocular and Spirit Son.

that's replying to 1:46

how many shorties beaten in the 19! years duncan?not so much a crap stat as a crap record. by this time next week it may well be twenty years.

duncan idaho - I don't place particular significance on Grumeti, I simply used him as an example of how a horse can bounce back in a relatively short space of time simply because he had been mentioned by Sint in the thread. Horses are like humans & each will be different we don't even know how they're thinking - if at all, at least we can speak. Truth is we don't know how Darlan, Kauto Star or Colour Squadron will be after thier falls. If all three run dismally then I suppose that adds a lot of credence to the 'stat'. As I replied earlier to Zealot I was already on Darlan before he fell so am where I am I could have traded off but am happy to give the horse a chance maybe the odds are stacked against him but he doesn't know that. The value had gone for me on others (I was already on Dylan Ross also) so I shall just have to hope. If you want big prices you have to takes your chance (at least he runs) if you want to know all the facts you can wait for the day. GL

how many shorties beaten in the 19! years duncan?


you tell me....i'm presuming there's plenty

it was a poor stat cos it was inaccurate for starters

i've just looked at the last 10 yrs and by my reckoning he's only had 2 runners start shorter than 8/1 (from total of 15 runners:-

2nd 5/1
2nd 8/1
3rd 2/1
3rd 11/1
3rd 20/1
3rd 20/1
4th 11/1
unpl 17/2
unpl 11/1
unpl 14/1
unpl 16/1
unpl 22/1
unpl 25/1
uns rdr 1st 25/1
pu 8/1


doesnt strike me as a particularly bad record

duncan idaho Date Joined: 08 Mar 03
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Sint - I like your comments about Grumeti as if he could bounce back in that short a time perhaps there's hope for Darlan?


Of all the horses in the history of racing that have fallen and either bounced back or failed to bounce back, why would you place particularly significance on Grumeti?

I made a comparison with Grumeti because he bounced back and Won at Cheltenham, probably the most difficult place to do it. It is not because I have backed him, honest.

Sint - you & porkie pies don't go together too well! It's common knowledge Grumeti's come in at least 4 points on the weight of your wagers.
I've kept DB & have nibbles on Ut DS & West Brit. Sadly main bet's on Urb DS & I don't think the rain's gonna come so not even sure he'll turn up? We had a good dollop in the North West Tues night but I'm told it missed Cheltenham. By all accounts it drains like a sieve anyhow.

Didn't Spirit Son fall at Newbury before dotting up in the Coral Cup?

Sorry, meant Spirit River.

Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.

Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.

Ok, just checked he just blundered v badly, but it was as near to a fall as you'd ever get.

Not sure UDS will be risked either Solving. We'll see, ground might be safe enough.

Thats is where we beg to differ then Sint. For me it s all about the formbook. Stats for me have no significance. Will BB and Quevega not win because 4 on the bounce hasnt been done before? Its totally different and should be judged year to year

This is the only horse that mc manus gave at a preview night, he said mc coy told him he would win and that it was good enough for him.

Not sure what the overall stat is on horses that fell in their last hurdle race but I cann't remember
it being particularly significant.  There have been a few high profile horses that have fallen in there
last hurdle race this season  ,Grandouet fell 2 out at wincanton then won his next 2 races
                               Oscar Whisky fell at the last at Ascot then won his next 3 starts
                               Olofi took a very heavy fall at Newbury then ran a good race a few weeks later at the same track.
         Maybe there are some high profile cases were it was not the case this season but I cann't think of them off hand. Maybe if you have a quality animal and they fall at a hurdle it sharpens them up at the
hurdles. Could this be the case for Darlan as connections seem to have come out with glowing reports on his hurdling since the fall and  he's from the same stable as Grandouet and Oscar whiskey.

Mr RPR seems to have adopted the line I expected when rating the Supreme.

Darlan awarded 148 for coming 2nd. 1lb less than the Betfair Hurdle assesment.

Worth bearing in mind for next year if a horse comes from a handicap in its prep race....no noticeable improvement.