W Mullins 5/4 for top trainer is laughable

Ha Ha!

The joker could be right.  Boston Bob and Sir Deschamps look good but I'm struggling after that

how about the fly?

Nah, don't see him as a dual CH winner.  Do they count that stupid mares race?

Hurra will win for sure but I carn't see any other stand out ones!! He won't win the bumper

if 5/4 is laughable theres value elsewhere?...obviously thieveslikeus never heard of qeuvega(4/6 and fly(evs)?!?!?!...boston bob has a great chance and surely he will get at least one more?...thats 4.i couldnt see any trainer training 5 so maybe 5/4 is a great price?.the man is a great trainer and has great owners so ill be having a bet on him..

Midnight game for the supreme maybe. That will be about it

very poor windup

he's got 3 favourites on day 1 alone (fly, quevega and uncle junior/scotsirish)

apart from those, he's only got boston bob, sir des champs, call the police, sous les cieux, midnight game, mourad, so young and quel espirit off the top of my head before you even start looking at the handicaps

Vaguely heard of quevega but I tend to ignore the stupid mares race.  Scots Irish I've definitely heard of but do they count the stupid gymkhana race?

By: This user is online. thieveslikeus Date Joined: 11 Jan 12
Add contact | Send message When: 05 Mar 12 19:12 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 608 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog
Nah, don't see him as a dual CH winner.  Do they count that stupid mares race?

u dont see HF winning the champ hurdle, have u lost ur marbles?

love it denman 85 ! filled me boots today at 5-4 and got sprinter at 2's in powers! win on the snaff

each to there opinions, we will have a discussion the Friday night and I will be counting my money well winding use up.

theres only one winner of the champ hurdle, others cud set off now and still not win, HF is awsesome

Oh gawd not you again, iq85, which part of me taking on overbacked favourites at the festival don't you understand?   Maybe HF will be one to buck the trend, if it is I while smile and move on to the next one...  If you end up with 2 short priced winners and 3 losers and I end up with one 8/1 winner and 4 losers, who do you think will be smiling most at the end?

Fly, Quevega, Boston Bob, has 2 favs for X country,

then 2 of the first 3 in the NH Chase,
has 2 in top 5 for Neptune
has likely 2nd fav for RSA
has 2 for Jeweson, 2 for triumph

That's before we get onto the handicaps which he won 2 of last year.

He'll have 3 winners by end of day 1 and be 2/5 to be top trainer.

how can you honestly see hf or quevega getting beat? on what grounds? think your clutching at straws personally!

so every 2 in the top 5 of betting win at Cheltenham? stop going on betting when do you ever see all the short price horses win at the festival?

not saying every fav but honestly tell me honest reason as to why you think either hf or quevega can be beaten?

People are silly grouping all short priced favs together.

novices are dangerous as no collateral form to be confident you have everything beat.
then g1 chases you still have fences to jump and fallers etc..
but the graded hurdle races have the less dangers and you usually have the form in the book to be confident.

Fly, BB, Quevega are very strong, while Sizing europe, sprinter sacre and long run would be less strong.

Silly grouping them all together. Moscow Flyer, Azertioup, Kauto Star, Well chief, that's 4 horses who lost because of a fence in a champ chase. 

Name the rock solid Champion hurdlers who came back to defend their crown and were beat? last two I can think of were Istabraq and Hardy Eustace and they retained their crowns.

Big difference

so every 2 in the top 5 of betting win at Cheltenham? stop going on betting when do you ever see all the short price horses win at the festival?

The 5/4 is based on the odds of his runners in the market. Point is he has chances in many races to go with a hugely solid 3 on day 1.

While Hendo and Nicholls best chances seem to be in the same races as eachother, hence taking wins off eachother.

I have said hf will win though. I said maybe midnight game for the supreme as I really like him, I can see quevega getting turned over its a much stronger mares races this time round. And having looked at his over lot don't feel too strong on none of them at all

why is it a stronger mares race this time round?it won last time on the snaff by 15l?...d weld says he will run his if something happened to quevega only?..its a moral if ti shows up in same form as last yr.im big into the fly at 9/4 and 2s but im concerned he only beat peddlers last yr all out bt 1 1/2 lengths?..think hes abetter horse this year.

its a much stronger mares races this time round now we know you haven't a clue. utterly rubbish mares race, worst field ever to take her on.

Don't worry about fly, he'll post a far better performance than last year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpcPjqb4o0g

The Fly will have to do better than last year to beat Binocular who had a higher RPR, higher topspeed and higher Raceform speed rating when winninh his champion.  171+ "held on all out" versus 172+ "ran on strongly"

As for grouping short priced favourites together, 7 clr favs under 3/1 in last 9 CH's - 1 won.  7 clr favs under 3/1 in last 9 World Hurdles - 3 won

^*winning

which binocular turns up? if he even turns up! won well in the end wouldnt say all out and was first trip to cheltenham! great performance

If Bino turns up?  Which horse missed 2 of the last 3 festivals, remind me?

If you strip out Bino's runs after a break he has rarely been beaten and his RPRs improve with each run after a break.  He is due to top 170 again next run.

You even watch the link thieves?

Fly will be quite a bit better this year from last, was far too free for first 1/2 of race and class got him home. Different horse these days and is as solid as you like with Quevega.

BB not as solid as those imv, then chases and novices are as such, open dangers.

also I don't care what horses are favs in races, I care about what horses will win. Fly is a strongly fanced returning champion hurdle winner. They have a great record as I have pointed out.

Group your favs together all you like. I'm talking about 1 horse, not stats. People like you prob did the same talk when Istabraw was around, he won 3. This lad is better than istabraq.

WM will prob have 3 winners on the Tuesday. Quevega is the most bomb-proof of all the favourites at the meeting. Ok something could fall in front of her and bring her down but it certainly wont happen at the last hurdle.

I can afford to oppose HF this year CV because I backed him last year when he was a sensible price.    Yes I did oppose Istabraq after backing him for his first win, made quite a profit the year he was beaten.  You keep backing your "solid" favourites I will find the value against them and finish way ahead of you over time.  One stat you cannot get away from is that punters regularly overback many of the favourites at the festival (particularly in the main non hcps) and there is huge value in the horses behind the favourites as a result.

Thieves its maybe cause you were not on fly at 5/2 nr no bet pal! Oppose him cause he is now too short/ or he wont win?

I don't bet favourites at less than 3/1 on the day, let alone weeks before!  I oppose him because there is a horse that has better form over the c and d, he might be less consistent but on his day is better, he will be primed to perfection for the day so he is value.  I rarely say a horse won't win btw, just not my style.  Will give reasons why one might find winning difficult and/or why one is poor value but will never say "won't win."

CVByrne
05 Mar 12 20:15
Joined:
14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 2,849 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
its a much stronger mares races this time round Laugh now we know you haven't a clue. utterly rubbish mares race, worst field ever to take her on.




not true imo.

if unnacompanied and swincombe flame turn up it would make it more competitive that last year, welds beat thousand stars this season albeit under a canny ride, sparky may would never do that.

quevega still nigh on impossible to beat eitherway and mullins is rightful fav based on the chances of his horses deemed by the market with many favs, some at odds on. if u think the fly and quevega and scotsirish will get beat then u know what to do, simple really!

kinda makes my 13-8 look huge

thieveslikeus
05 Mar 12 23:40 Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 619 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog
I can afford to oppose HF this year CV because I backed him last year when he was a sensible price.    Yes I did oppose Istabraq after backing him for his first win, made quite a profit the year he was beaten.  You keep backing your "solid" favourites I will find the value against them and finish way ahead of you over time.  One stat you cannot get away from is that punters regularly overback many of the favourites at the festival (particularly in the main non hcps) and there is huge value in the horses behind the favourites as a result.

Amazing level of arrogance here, who the hell are you anyway newbie? joined betfair a month or two ago ffs. Plenty on here have track records of quality betting yet you talk down to everyone as if your some punting genius.

I'm not some fool who bets on horses at 4/6 dotr. I've my pockets filled on 9/4 fly and all the 2/1 nrnb fly I wanted. I have followed this horse from day 1. NEVER has he lost me a bet. I spent nearly a week of writing last year on this forum explaining why he was different class.

I don't go round backing all these short favs, I'm not a mug. But when I know one is a cut above I get on him ap at the prices that suite me.

I've also got on quevega @ 6/4 which she traded for pretty much all of last year and all of jan this year.

Finally I've a very large stake on Big bucks to remain unbeaten this season @ 5/2 with William hill.

All of these prices are excellent imv all are very good bets and I make no case, nor do I care what level of odds on they all go off.  By all means lay BB @ 4/9 he's too short as he's never faced one like Oscar Whiskey, lay champion chase horses at odds on as plenty hit fences. Laugh at odds on Gold Cup horses. Go mad laying shorties in novice chases.

But you'd be a little bit of a wiser layer if you sometimes avoided ones that aren't worth taking on. Pick your battles. It's better to win 4/5 than 4/6.

Plenty of the regulars on here know my track record in this race having had Katchit, Punjabi and Hurricane Fly come in for me the past 4 years. I've been around since 2006 you see.


Also re Unaccompanied. She does not run if Quevega runs trainer said. Simple and clear.

No real punter only opens a betfair account in 2012 ffs.

theres one here mate

He's talking about always taking on the favs, he should be a layer. Layers need betfair.

Think WPM is a worthy Fav for this market tbh. Actually tempting to have some 5/4 because outside of his obvious chances you can bet your bottom dollar he'll have a couple of decent handicappers otherwise he'd not spend the time and effort sending them over.

Alan King was the value at 33/1 given he has had a clear and sustained run with his horses this season unlike the last two and he also has some cracking chances, though putting a few of them into multiples would pay more than 33's.

if his shorties win he'll win.

i mean if one thinks h'flys / quevega and lets say scots irish price actually represents their chance of winning then they should be all over this offer because with the likes of sir du champ and boston bob also with outstanding chances (not just on their prices tellling us but are horses with standout form, esp BB imo) the he going to be v hard to beat.

svots irish is a doubtful stayer imo but will prob win anyway and the other 2 look bombproof to me so to me at this stage whether they actually go on to win or not, it looks a good bet imo. he has a better squad of horses than any of the other trainers and some of his horses are standout form chances in the cross country and mares. winning the gold cup with kauto doesnt get pn extra points as u all know!

cv is outspoken but hes right!!

I would not even react to this (thieveslikeus)fella,clearly has no clue what he is talking about,when his first few posts appeared i thought he was just fishing,but reading more just shows he was not and knows nothing of the sport

Mouthy arrogant people are the norm these days,didn't use to be the case a few year ago.Roll on Cheltenham and i would say 5/4 is a reasonably price for Mullins as top trainer.

3 winners won top trainer in 08,last year 3 again was leading until WM won the second last race,even for WM to have only 3 this year it would be hard to imagine him not getting a few seconds and winning it by countback.looks a fair bet.

Mullins should go well - I would not be that surprised if Nicholls is still waiting for a winner when Big Buck's goes to post.

Mull also has Uncle Junior in the cross country and there a few people who believe that he may in fact finish ahead of Scotsirish

add Allee Garde to that,might be 10/1 but id put him down as a good thing in the national hunt chase

kavvie seems to be taking it for granted that hurricane fly evs  quevega 4/6 are already home so isnt it better just to have those in a double at 11/4ish than  take 5/4 mullins to be top trainer as hell almost deffo need another to get home.im not saying i want that double bt id rather that than the trainers bet at 5/4 .

Deffo Agree^^^^^^^

You are right Sick but one or both could lose and he could still win the trainers.

Not my first account on here CVB.  Not hearing of defeat for any particular horse is my own definition of arrogance.

quevega and fly could lose but he could still have 4 winners?scots irish or unc junior,boston bob.sous le sous,sir des champs,quel esprit,the bumper,..he got lots of chances in the handicaps ..5/4 great price

thieveslikeus
06 Mar 12 22:31 Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 620 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog
Not my first account on here CVB.  Not hearing of defeat for any particular horse is my own definition of arrogance.

Illiterate too? Never said Fly can't be beat, think I just mentioned the odds I backed him at.


So you just decided when opening a new account to come on to the forum for the first time.

Why do you need more than one account, why don't you post on here with your other accounts.

Ah because you're one of the hundreds of nonsense all talk pointless prats that come and go on this car crash cluster fck of a site.

gotta love coming back here for a laugh pre festival. Always entertaining.

My last account was hacked last year and looted by some evil little thief.  I decided to restart with a new account rather than rescue the old one.  Read my posts, do I come across as having literacy issues?  No, thought not.  I did post a few times 2 years ago from the old account under the name Crossingnewburystreet (another song title) mostly banging on about why I fancied Imperial Commander and didn't fancy Dunguib so I had no reason to stop posting other than last year I was busy with a new business.  I guess I've posted a lot this year because the person I used to bounce my ideas off died last summer and I have no one to talk to about racing now.  You need to read your own posts, every time any one even suggests an alternative to HF you completely dismiss it.

Ease off Thieves, fellas. Some of his posts/analysis has been pretty good tbf,imo.

Cheers Sint.

Can I just come back to a point I touched on earlier One stat you cannot get away from is that punters regularly overback many of the favourites at the festival (particularly in the main non hcps) and there is huge value in the horses behind the favourites as a result.

I mentioned in one of the 47 grands crus threads that I use a global stat for the main non handicap races that they must have raced in last 84 days,  By main non hcps I mean the 4 championship races, the ryan air and it's predecessors, the rsa, arkle, new jewson, supreme, neptune, albert and triumph  can't remember if that's 88 or 89 races over 8 seasons, but anyway only 2 winners failed that stat and 33 losers  10/1 and under. 

Anyway to get to the point, if you apply the stat as a positive and had bet every horse with an SP in the range 3/1 to 10/1 in the above races that had run within 84 days then you would have made an LSP of 73.83 points! Taken in conjunction with the studies showing horses under 3/1 make a loss, I regard that as proof that the markets at Cheltenham overback one horse at the expense of other fancied runners.  That, in a nutshell, was the only point I have been trying to make with regards to the supposedly bombproof favourites.

You need to read your own posts, every time any one even suggests an alternative to HF you completely dismiss it.

I haven't dismissed anyones alternative to fly. I have commented on no othr horse in the Champion hurdle in this thread. You is defo illiterate.


Sint. what do I care, I only come on here for sh1ts and giggles.

Proper analysis on the proper site. Should come over sint, dunno why you waste your time here.

I actually tried logging onto the bet smart one last night CV but it wouldn't load.

Cheers Thieves. I guess a lot of punters just get ''Cheltenham Fever'' and become lazy. They'll look at a short one and pile in accordingly. Sometimes they'll be on the right fav,othertimes they wont.

What 'proper site' might that be CV ?
you can talk to me i've been here for 10 years...

was fooked the other day, back up now.

But most of us are on another site teetees one. I'll message you the site.

You is defo illiterate.

No I is not.  An mi comprihenshun skils arr eggsilent two.

Can I draw your attention to the statement "he will have three winners by the end of day one" - which part of that I have illiterately miscomprehended?

I've also made it pretty clear I don't like laying.  Your own comprehension skills seem a little challenged on grasping that one.

My point was that you can't group everything as "favs" or "3/1 and under",

novice favs are poor favs, chaing faves net in line, hurdling favs more solid and repeat winners of g1 hurdle races the most solid. Hence my point on Istabraq winning when returning as a fav, Hardy Eustace the same, Big Bucks, Inglis Drever, Barracouda....

Horses coming back to defend their crowns and being favs have a good record. They do eventually lose, but you take age and season form into account of course.

You could apply your opposing favs logic at the same time as betting big on Quevega and Big bucks for example.

That was my point.

Majority of my betting is antepost betting strictly on horses who will shorten, regardless of if I fancy them, so it yields a positive trading position on or near the day yielding free captial to make my decisions.

2/1 nrnb on Fly was obviously a solid position for example. Was only going to shorten, with no risk to my bet.

backed hf at 7/4.think its a great price,but would i be stunned if it lost?of course not.been in the game too long to call anything a certainty.backed swincombe flame against quevega,think it has a sporting each way chance but probably taking on the wrong one.all about opinions thats what makes the sport so great

I understood what you said CV but it seems to me you are remembering repeat winners and forgetting similar short priced losers.  Barracouda was beaten favourite twice at odds on when returning.  Inglis Drever also beaten at odds on.  Hardy Eustace was excellent value at 7/2 when he returned so he actually fits my argument not yours!   

Whatever the type of race, the problem doesn't change,  it is about the market and the way it behaves in all the top festival races regardless of type.  You have a good price compared to now of course you do, but it was never in the price range I would consider, so not for me this year and I now see it as typically overbet and having a winning chance in the 40-45% range (makes your bet value congratulations) and horses with chances in the 12-30% range will now be underbet producing value in the mature market.

40-45% winning chance
maybe in your eyes fella,certainly not in mine,try increasing that percentage by quite some way

It's not toally bomb proof, yes Barracouda was beaten at odds on on his attempt for 3 in a row, but when he was beaten the second time he wasn't a returning champ and was a year older. So doesn't fit what I'm saying.

The Dreaver was never beat at odds on by the way.

My point is you look at the horses returning to defend their crowns in the two hurdle races and go off fav they have a great record.

for this reason i'm saying you are incorrect in grouping all the favs together. Novices races can't have solid short priced favs they are novices, Chases have fences.

Hurlde races have plenty of horses retaining their crowns when fancied to do so. It should be treated seperately.

The market puts it at slightly over 50% but we know short priced festival favourites are globally overbet.  45% equates to a genuine 5/4 shot.  40% to a genuine 6/4 shot.  Thinking he is significantly higher than that is a symptom of the market phenomenon I have just been describing.

So horses who fit my group of repeat winners of hurdle races

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Barracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Bucks.

Only one who let it down was Barracouda being beaten when going for 3 in a row.

But all of those 5 were successful when returning to retain their crowns for the first time.

Fly fits this grouping. He as such needs to be looked at away from your favs grouping. They are not one and the same.

thieveslikeus
The market puts it at slightly over 50% but we know short priced festival favourites are globally overbet.  45% equates to a genuine 5/4 shot.  40% to a genuine 6/4 shot.  Thinking he is significantly higher than that is a symptom of the market phenomenon I have just been describing.

In general that would be true, but many of short priced favs chances are better than their odds. Big bucks was a 10/11 shot last year, no he wasn't he was a 2/5 shot who went of 10/11.

In general odds on favs are under priced. But not always. You must accept this?

Fly is a 66% chance of winning imv. So that puts him at a 1/2 shot. But if you're betting on him at 10/11 that means he's priced as a 52% chance of winning. Not a big margin of error there given the stakes required

But if you bet at 2/1 and that prices him at a 33% chance of winning, now your margin is double the chances he is priced at.

This is more conductive to normal betting on a 4/1 shot that you think is a 6/4 shot. 20% in relation to 40%.

When they are too long CV I can afford to miss them as more often than not they get beat and I get the one that beats them often enough to keep a smile on my face.   Apologies btw misremembered Inglis Drever, he didn't make it back.  Can think of a number of horses that have got beat returning for a second CH as favs though, Alderbrook, Rooster Booster spring straight to mind.  They would have fit your profile pretty well.

I see it differently CV, I don't rate him as having a 67% chance of beating a back to form Binocular round this track let alone the whole field.  You disagree with the race readers interpretation of last year's race, I don't. You think he ran free and is unlikely to do so again, I think he might well do so again.  Whatever, I will stick to the part of the market where the value lies again and again and again.  I don't mind the fact that I will be wrong more often than right as I know I will be right often enough and at good enough prices to keep me happy year after year.  Anyway, going to leave it there as I can't believe this joke of a thread has led to such a serious argument.

Rooster Booster was a beaten fav but was 10 years old and lost 3/4 races that season. So wasn't as solid as Fly is. Alderbrook was indeed beat as 10/11 fav. But interestingly both came 2nd. So ran well.

Stick to your method, but you could improve your method by sometimes avoiding very solid hurdle favs.

fwiw, I opposed Sizing with Katchit and Binocular with Punjabi. So understand taking on favs in this race. Just think you're taking on the wrong one, like Istabraq before him Fly is dominant and best left un opposed.

I've binocular ew and backed w/o Fly btw, he's the only possible danger imv.

'back to form binocular' sick of hearing that rubbish,an unfit Bino beat CH by 16 lengths in the fighting fifth in nov,he then went on to beat CH by 6 lengths in the kingwell in feb,how does that make him back to form?

quite frankly,if there are still people out there who cant see that Hurricane Fly is by far and away the best hurdler in training and the best that has graced a racetrack in many a year,then you should not be gambling,

If I were a layer I'd just skip Fly, Quevega and BB and focus on getting the others beat. But bookies have to take them all on, thats the point. It comes out in profit in the end, they lose on some horses in their careers and win on others in the long run.

Keep up the hyperbole form man, loving seeing the groupthink in action again. 

CVB, I'm not stupid, when the favourite profiles well, I make sure I more than cover myself through ew and/or w/o markets.

Might take on BB actually, around now is when you start taking him on as he'll lose eventually.

Might take on BB actually, around now is when you start taking him on as he'll lose eventually.

I think Binocular is very solid in w/o market.

Exactly my thinking on BB.  Funny as it sounds to some, but over hurdles 9 is old for a French bred, and someone on here who knows their stuff on breeding pointed out his sire's progeny deteriorate particularly early which has given me further encouragement. I haven't fully taken him on before, he was my main bet for the race (saver on Punchestowns) when taking on Kasbah Bliss 3 years ago and I played Time For Rupert ew and in the w/o market 2 years ago. last year I was struggling and ended up with peanuts ew on fiveforthree and half a hazelnut ew on mourad and in the w/o. Didn't quite break even. 

Age wise of course, I will also be opposing Binocular when he comes back to try and win  a third CH in 2013

It's been a good race for forecasts, if BB wins Ow will chase him home and vice versa.

BB -  Crus - Mourad -1-2-3 in betting
BB - Time for rupert

ow out of wh apparently!

3 winners on day 1???

1 winner not bad for a stable of sick/not right horses,lay them all from here on in

2 in the first layed,both fell

Me too. All these mugs on here about he will get 3 on the first day Lol, his horses win average races in Ireland and come over for the festival hyped up. I didn't fall for it ;)

3 more in the neptune beaten at shortish prices,all layed

turning into a bloodbath backing WMs horses. but if you get off, you know sometyhing will sluice in and make it all better. dilemma.

had some mates ringing me from the course saying that most of them look like sh1t up close and in the paddock,something not right i think

2 more hammered in the rsa,easy pickings

well ive only got boston bob left of WMs. thats it for me.

i might just leave him alone unless he is backed into a crazy price,then i would lay