Personally I think he started the season on too high a mark as it wasn't known at the time that last year has turned out to be a poor one for the staying novices.

I think his current mark reflects his ability, perhaps he has a couple of lbs in hand. Just think in this race there will be a couple with a lot more in hand but as you say perhaps that is balanced by the price. Good luck but for me the price isn't attractive enough

Sorry cut and paste wonky there:
Better in small fields =10 00220P32517085PP3 1/17

Anyone know whats up with Hold On Julio......looks to be drifting with no money up on the lay side ...injured ???

I agree TFR is well handicapped - problem with the festival is there are bound to be 2 or 3 plot horses in there against him.  Anyone know if TFR is running here or GC?

Running on the Tuesday might make more sense then?

Cant have TFR at all tbh. He loves Cheltenham but for me did not jump as well as he has done last time out and is probably in the grip of the handicapper.

I would go as far to say he is an underachiever, he has won and placed in a fair share of decent races, but he looks a top rate hadicapper at this stage nothing more. Might even be a Grand National horse next year.

TIME FOR RUPERT GOING FOR GOLD CUP...

Maybe they feel he ran below par in the Argento ? Eitherway i'd not be a backer , did my dosh on him last time out.

At least your going to get a run for your money now. I suspect a lot of people will be pleased with this decision actually.

The ORISH in th JLT....


14 Magnanimity, D T Hughes

16 Leanne, W Harney

20 Tharawaat, Gordon Elliott

24 Shakervilz, W P Mullins

I actually did laugh out load at Budd backing TFR at 15

good on ya for taking it like a sport!

The Package (6) , Quantitativeeasing (13/2) , Hold On Julio (7) , Our Mick (12) , Tullamore Dew (12) , Baile Anrai (16) , Time For Rupert (16) , Zarrafakt (16) , Cappa Bleu (20) , Magnanimity (20) , Mossley (20) , Walkon (20) , Blenheim Brook (25) , Cannington Brook (25) , Divers (25) , Fruity ORooney (25) , Hectors Choice (25) , Leanne (25) , Alfie Sherrin (33) , Arbor Supreme (33)  - Others  33 or more

I think I read somewhere on here that last time out fallers have a pretty poor record at the festival. I like Baile Anrai but the fact he fell last time putting me off a little. Also like the favourite. I know he has top weight but his win last time out couldn't be working out any better.

Nick Mordin was very impressed with Pentiffic on his website if you're interested EC.

PENTIFFIC (37) was unbeaten in three steeplechases in Australia, including the country's most valuable and prestigious chase, the Grand National at Sandown. But those races are counted as hurdles under UK and Irish rules, so he's qualified to run in novice chases over here.

This fact now becomes rather interesting following Pentiffic's terrific performance in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster where he tipped up at the last with a two length lead when tiring.

Most likely Pentiffic would have been caught. But he would still have clocked a pattern class time. And the mid race move he made was quite remarkable. He quickened to jump the six fences just before the homestraight 1.8 seconds faster than they did in the good two mile chase later on the same card. Seeing that he was running in a three and a quarter mile chase that is quite something.

Pentiffic is an athletic, rather classy looking sort. When he made his big move he instantly had all his rivals under pressure and opened up a lead of a dozen lengths. If he'd been restrained just a little he would have had enough energy left to jump the last cleanly and hold off his rivals.

Pentiffic put up this smart performance off a mark of 131. But he could run off a mark off only 124 and against novices if he makes the cut in the big novices handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

It could be that Pentiffic’s big run was brought about by the fact he was racing on fast ground for the first time in Britain - seeing that in Australia they rarely have going as soft as the Winter ground we race on in Britain and Ireland. It may also be that Pentiffic will do even better around courses as tight as those he was used to back home. It could be he prefers them dead flat like they are in Australia too. In which case he starts to look rather interesting for the novices handicap chase at the Aintree Festival.

In any event Pentiffic will surely be winning something decent soon following this smart run.

Is Extreme Conviction about this year ?

STATS fwiw

Only two favourites have won since 1977
Only one winner has carried 11 stone or more for 13 years
No winner rated over 150 in the last 30 years
11yo and older horses are unplaced (0-40) since1997
Horses aged seven to 10 have won the last 14 renewals
11 of the last 13 winners have won over at least 3 miles
10 of the last 13 winners were placed in the first three last time out
11 of the last 13 winners had run no more than 11 times over fences
11 of the last 13 winners had run no more than four times that season
Nine out of the last 12 winners were in the first four in the betting
Nine of the last 13 winners went of at SP’s between 5/1 and 10/1
Six of the last 10 winners won their previous outing
Six of Nicky Henderson’s last 13 runners have won or been placed

Choc Thornton has ridden 3 of the last 9 winners (sadly NO Choc this year)
2 of Chocs wins were on Alan King trained horses
JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
8 of the last 10 winners had a prep run between 24 and 63 days beforehand
Winners have been officially rated between 128 and 143
4 of the last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143
Just one winner has carried more than 10-12 to victory in the last decade

Just thrown £2 at Planet of Sound. Has a good record at the meeting but has been disappointing lately.

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 112F8 Quartz De Thaix24 9 11-12 Venetia Williams57 Aidan Coleman 153 140 156
2 17-3P4 Midnight Chase45 t 11 11-11 Neil Mulholland17 Dougie Costello 152 144 163
3 230-53 Planet Of Sound88 t 11 11-9 Philip Hobbs62 Richard Johnson 150 112 155
4 14F11 Cloudy Too24 7 11-5 Sue Smith40 Wayne Hutchinson 146 125 160
5 4-14P The Package59 t 10 11-5 David Pipe63 Timmy Murphy 146 150 157
6 P7P52 Hey Big Spender10 t 10 11-4 Colin Tizzard50 Joe Tizzard 145 142 159
7 1133-U Our Mick45 7 11-4 Donald McCain56 Jason Maguire 145 145 161
8 7-13U3 Nadiya De La Vega45 p 7 11-3 Nicky Henderson53 A P McCoy 144 155 161
9 5-P800 Quantitativeeasing17 8 11-3 Nicky Henderson53 Barry Geraghty 144 141 152
10 0P1344 Knockara Beau34 t 10 11-1 George Charlton Paddy Brennan 142 162 168
11 F81F13 Tour Des Champs24 6 10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies30 Sam Twiston-Davies 139 114 162
12 5-4122 Merry King80 p 6 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill50 Richie McLernon 139 141 163
13 5-0732 Fruity O´Rooney45 p 10 10-12 Gary Moore31 Jamie Moore 139 150 165
14 345P14 Jadanli21 p 11 10-11 Paul John Gilligan A E Lynch 138 149 159
15 614U3 Tenor Nivernais16 p 6 10-11 Venetia Williams57 Robert Dunne3 138 142 159
16 11113P Pete The Feat32 9 10-10 Charlie Longsdon57 Noel Fehily 137 150 167
17 6P-121 Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161
18 67311 Nuts N Bolts28 t 7 10-8 Lucinda Russell67 Peter Buchanan 135 107 160
19 F-3223 Poole Master26 8 10-7 David Pipe63 Tom Scudamore 134 90 161
20 25151 Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158
21 P-U234 Tullamore Dew45 t 11 10-6 Nick Gifford83 Tom Cannon3 133 151 160
22 22P32 White Star Line17 9 10-5 D T Hughes68 Bryan Cooper 132 94 156
23 401-39 Summery Justice17 9 10-5 Venetia Williams57 Liam Treadwell 132 120 160
24 1P3633 Golden Chieftain18 tp 8 10-5 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell3 132 147 163

Funny you should say that mushroom23, having gone on about the stats on another thread and why I think low weights are favoured, I then applied my usual non-Cheltenham method of analysis to the race and Cloudy Too comes out joint top with Loch Ba well clear of the rest, with Merry King 3rd top, hmmmmmmm!  Maximum progression points and maximum points for style of victory is a pretty rare combo under my method, maximum 6 points in both for CT...