Cheltenham Festival
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***JLT Festival Handicap Chase Preview***
***JLT Festival Handicap Chase Preview***
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Despite what Ruby said I don't want Noland in my book. The 80's on betfair were there for a good few mins before someone took them. He ain't winning imv.
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I'm not saying he's going to win CVB but backing at high prices and knowing he's going to shorten based on connections can't do any harm. I have layed 15 horses and only backed 3.
My plan is to be green on everything on the day. mainly laying the high weights now as a few wont run and the shape of the race will change with lower weights being backed in. I have backed Noland and Riguez dancer because connections said it would be targeting the race and they were big prices, nearly certain to contract. There will be a big shake up tomorrow with the confirmation stage and hopefully I can take advantage of a few over reactions |
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Does Mossley show up for this? Got a chance on his hurdles form.
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Never mind hurdles form, if Join Togethers rating is accurate Mossley looks very well weighted imo.
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Billie Magern looks a good e/w bet to me at 33/1 NRNB. Has a very respectable record at Cheltenham and goes off only 1 lb higher than Lie Forrit.
Difficult to argue with his 3rd place behind The Giant Bolster and Poquelin (and finishing ahead of the recent winner Aerial) on Festival Trials Day. Also a more than respectable 5th in the Paddy Power along with a Chelt Grade 2 win in October stands him in good stead. Twiston-Davies usually comes up with a surprise winner or 2 at the Festival; could this be it? |
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Billie Magern was entered in the Paddy Power where NTDavies usually puts his better/improving chasers so you have a point Glossy. As the stable has been out of form until recently he may not have shown his best form yet.... I would say his handicap mark was about right rather than lenient though.
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Anyone got the 5 day decs yet ?
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41 Confirmed of the 84 (BUT ONLY 24 Allowed !)
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Evan Williams said just now on ATR he will make a decisions on whether Cappa Bleu runs at the weekend. Sounded to me like they might run tbh, 4 weeks between races this year.
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Sorted the first 24 (BUT where do the other 17 go ?)
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Has this race provided the winner or placed horses of the Grand National in the past or am I mixing it up with something else?
IF Cappa Bleu does run, and run well, he is likely to be put up by the handicapper but obviously wont be for the GN. |
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BARRY
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Lieforrit out. Thank god for NRNB!
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BJG
Yon miised out on these 41  |
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BJG
Yon missed out on these 41 |
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BJG
You missed out on these 41 |
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ffs
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Riguez Dancer 8.g Ferdy Murphy 9st 7lb to be riden by Lucy Alexander(5)
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Tullamore Dew fits all the treds, 143 rated and placed at last years festival.
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The only one's that fit the trends mentioned in my preview above are:
Cappa Bleu, Hector's Choice, Tullamore Dew, Baile Anrai, Alfie Sherrin and Magnanimity. Not particularly taken by any of them to be honest. Tullamore Dew should be thereabouts and is certainly one for the placepot, but struggle to see him being handicapped well enough for win a race of this nature. It's very dull but I think Hold on Julio is by far the most likely winner if he's over his recent troubles. The only stat he fails on is that he hasn't placed in a Class 1, however, the race he took easily last time could easily have been a Listed Handicap with the top weight being Neptune Collonges off 159. |
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Think Billie Magern needs a small field Glossy. Magnanimity on my radar, despite a slightly higher than ideal weight/rating.
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Quantitativeeasing (IRE) 7.g Nicky Henderson 11st 7lb
Time For Rupert (IRE) 8.g Paul Webber 11st 5lb Walkon (FR) 7.g Alan King 11st 3lb Cannington Brook (IRE) 8.g Colin Tizzard 11st 2lb Noland 11.g Paul Nicholls 11st 0lb Cappa Bleu (IRE) 10.g Evan Williams 10st 13lb Hector's Choice (FR) 8.g Richard Lee 10st 13lb Hold On Julio (IRE) 9.g Alan King 10st 11lb........Robert Thornton Mon Mome (FR) 12.g Venetia Williams10st 11lb Consigliere (FR) 9.g David Pipe 10st 11lb Zarrafakt (IRE) 8.g Emma Lavelle 10st 11lb Our Mick 6.g Donald McCain 10st 10lb........Jason Maguire Arbor Supreme (IRE) 10.g Jonjo O'Neill 10st 10lb Magnanimity (IRE) 8.g D. T. Hughes, Ireland 10st 10lb Matuhi 9.g David Pipe 10st 10lb Tullamore Dew (IRE) 10.g Nick Gifford 10st 9lb Divers (FR) 8.g Ferdy Murphy 10st 8lb Mossley (IRE) 6.g Nicky Henderson 10st 8lb Tharawaat (IRE) 7.g Gordon Elliott, Ireland 10st 7lb Fruity O'Rooney 9.g Gary Moore 10st 6lb The Package 9.g David Pipe 10st 5lb Billie Magern 8.g Nigel Twiston-Davies 10st 5lb Shakervilz (FR) 9.g W. P. Mullins, Ireland 10st 5lb Leanne (IRE) 10.m W. Harney, Ireland 10st 5lb Blenheim Brook (IRE) 7.g Lucinda Russell 10st 4lb Mount Oscar (IRE) 13.g Colin Tizzard 10st 1lb Summery Justice (IRE) 8.g Venetia Williams10st 0lb Charingworth (IRE) 9.g Ferdy Murphy 9st 13lb Baile Anrai (IRE) 8.g Ian Williams 9st 13lb Golden Chieftain (IRE) 7.g Colin Tizzard 9st 12lb Major Malarkey (IRE) 9.g Nigel Twiston-Davies 9st 9lb Alfie Sherrin 9.g Jonjo O'Neill 9st 8lb Bottman (IRE) 7.g Tim Vaughan 9st 7lb Riguez Dancer 8.g Ferdy Murphy 9st 7lb..........Lucy Alexander(5) Definite Dawn (IRE) 8.g Tim Vaughan 9st 5lb Pentiffic (NZ) 9.g Venetia Williams9st 4lb Marescsou (FR) 7.g Venetia Williams9st 3lb Free World (IRE) 10.g Warren Greatrex 9st 3lb Runshan (IRE) 12.g David Bridgwater9st 1lb Ballyvesey (IRE) 7.g Peter Bowen 8st 12lb Le Burf (FR) 11.g Giles Smyly 8st 5lb |
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EC - didn't you say that Fruity O'Rooney also met your trends and he is still in?
Obviously by the process of elimination, he must be the winner  |
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Oh yeah - my bad... Bad news... I don't like him either
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That is bad news........for you obviously
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Go on Fruity on at 33s nr no bet,with Tullamore and Julia at 8s must get a return? LOl!
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Julio
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Why do you say that carvishill? Finished 5/20 in the Paddy Power and a decent 8/24 in the Kim Muir last year, carrying 11-9.
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Hold On Julio (6) , Quantitativeeasing (7) , The Package (8) , Tullamore Dew (14) , Baile Anrai (16) , Time For Rupert (16) , Zarrafakt (16) , Cappa Bleu (20) , Magnanimity (20) , Our Mick (20) , Walkon (20) , Blenheim Brook (25) , Cannington Brook (25) , Divers (25) , Fruity ORooney (25) , Hectors Choice (25) , Leanne (25) , Mossley (25) , Arbor Supreme (33) , Billie Magern (33) - Others 33 or more
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Cant see why people backing riguez dancer on here at 50 when he's 50s NRNB at ladb's. security if he doesn't run and the place price
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Cant find any angle in here. Been looking at Golden Chieftan. I must be desperate.
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Magnanimity as stated meets most of the trends,lightly raced this season hopefully to protect what looks like a workable mark.His RSA form reads well in the context of this race.The pilot is definately a worry should mr Russell be aboard!
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Not sure the form of last year's RSA has worked out - looks quite a poor renewal with 2 of the 3 horses finishing ahead of Magnanimity being disappointing (Bostons Angel & Wayward Prince) and the other not seen since (Jessies Dream).
Wouldn't use that race as much of a yardstick IMO. |
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Fair point Glossy and its well documented how that race can take its toll on novices.On the plus side his last run was more encouraging,giving way in the home straight in a grade 2.Watching replays of last year he travelled well on likely smilar ground to next week,and I hope that might be the key to him.
Age wise at 8 he may have a little improvement,and not too many miles on the clock.Should he be 20/1? I think his overall form,and the fact he ran well at last years fetival in a grade1 entitle him to run well. |
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Hope he runs well for you mate.
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does anyone know if time for rupert is an intended runner? I think a rating of 153 is generous, he could still be a 165 horse,I'm struggling to pick holes in any of his form and he certainly likes the course
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Have lost faith in him. Let me down last year, was one of my more sizeable wagers.
Probably romp home now! |
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but is he really 2 stone behind the best in training, last year had a problem but still ran acceptably well
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nah he's a disappointing, over rated under achiever whose best victory remains a Listed handicap hurdle at Aintree off 138 or something, don't like the horse even if he is theoretically well handicapped
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When u consider he was only 3 1/2 lengths behind Weird Al(now rated 164) who is being talked of by many as a live Gold Cup contender on his seasonal reapperance and has also beat The Giant Bolster on the bridal(whos now rated 160)on his penultimate run then 153 gives him a serious chance.The problem i have with him is that sandwiched in between his two eyecatching runs are two below par efforts albeit both of which were in grade one and grade two company.He has the stat of no winner being rated over 143 in recent times to overcome also but his current price of around 16-1 has a bit of juice in it on the balance IMHO
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