Cheltenham Festival
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Worst Value Of The Festival?
Worst Value Of The Festival?
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Going back to the Arkle, how can PC be ahead of AF in the betting? SS thumped PC at Kempton and, unless it was ultra lame, which it did not look, has little chance in reversing the form. AF however has won a G1 nov ch, beating a future G1 nov ch, then running a good 3rd to older established 2 milers.
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Yes but "he wasn't beaten far by the Fly last year"
 This gets trotted out from all angles, probably the same angles that rubbish SS's CHASE form. |
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In the same vein that "he wasn't beaten far by the Fly last year" is trotted out by those who support Peddlers, those who are against him put far too much credence in his beating at Kempton by Sprinter imo. He wasn't right and absolutely clouted the first, there's little more that could have gone wrong for him, not to mention the track unlikely to be playing to his strengths. Anyway this has and will go round and round til the day so I don't mean to start it up here.
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I should clarify though that I do think Peddlers is too short.
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As he is shortening all the time would add Darlan for several reasons:-
(1)He is returning from a very nasty fall. (2)He is short because of what might have been - seemingly people think he would have quickened off the bridle but he could just as easily have plugged on at one pace and finished unplaced. (3)Albertas Run apart, I wouldn't view AP as a positive booking on anything at the Festival. (4)I have looked pretty closely at the offspring of Milan and although he has had plenty of winners after a slow start there is a definite shortage of quality. We are effectively looking at the fourth crop and so far the best look likely be no better than reasonable handicappers. Darlan might be an exception but I wouldn't bank on it. |
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^ And (5) His one fairly disappointing run came at Cheltenham as opposed to flatter tracks that seem to really suit.
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Grands Crus in either race, Sprinter Sacre (I accept he could be top class, but I'm willing to let the Arkle prove that to me first at his price), Peddlers Cross is even worse value, and Bobs Worth. All of those look like lays to me.
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ffs diff, Ive just jumped on with 365 at 7s nrnb.
My reasoning is: It was a fairly fast run race at Newbury. Faster than Monbazon did anyway. The Supreme will be the same. He was only getting 5lbs from Zarkandar and was giving weight away to a lot of good handicappers like Get Me Out Of Here (Schweppes winner and Supreme runner up)Raya Star (Ladbroke winner lto)Sire De Grugy won nto off 141, Third Intention (impressive winner yesterday of the National Spirit. To name but a few. The Betfair looked a fair race, and to my eyes, there aint a 2ml nov hurdler this season with this kind of form. I do agree about his fall though, it looked a sore one. I hope he has recovered enough, hence the nrnb. |
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seems there is a whole lot of bad value to be had
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re darlan lads, read a preview night write up that andrew tinkler was on the panel and has ridden
darlan out since the fall and reported no ill effects and was extremely keen on him for the supreme and that it was all systems go.i reckon he would have run zarkader very close and if he,s ch class darlan must have a nice chance in the supreme |
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darlan flat track bully lay at 1/2 mile pole
cinders lay short in the run won't get up the hill 7-1 with coral montbazon pure hype horse hasn't achieved much and would of been beaten by colour squadron last time...trainer thinks the world of him but i don't and makes no appeal at the odds...would of liked to of seen him in the neptune myself. steps to freedom hasn't prepped and is the worse price in recorded memory also form doesn't add up to much imo galileos choice if ridden by robbie mcnamara would become a 14's shot overnight all poor value for the roulette wheel that is the supreme...if any of these win it will be the worst supreme in living memory apart from galileos if ridden by a jockey |
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Harry, I think it's a bit harsh calling Montbazon a hype horse.
I think he's slipped under most people's radar (apart from Koral's). He doesn't seem particularly flashy to me, and I think he's been overlooked by a lot of people; prefering ones that travel strongly and win on the bridle ie Darlan, Simonsig etc. Mont is one of very few in the Supreme that has proven he can quicken off the bridle and can gets his head down and relish a fight; that's a pretty decent trait to have going into the Supreme imo. |
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All of the hotpots are overbacked and I will be opposing most of them. The worst value though has to be Zarkandar. His profile is a mile away from the winner of a Champion Hurdle and I wouldn't be interested at 3 times his current price. He also lacks the speed of a CH winner. I reserve the right to back him in the 2013 World Hurdle though.
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totally agree thieves his price of 5-2 in the without hurricane market defies belief and i will be laying it to the max on this market come the day...
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just been making the same point on another thread
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any short priced novice lay lay lay
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thieves mick fitz said on ATR the other day that triumph hurdle winners usually get 3 miles in time, think you might be right RE zarkander world hurdle, although next year might be a year too soon
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Anything now that isn't NRNB! All the value AP has gone, targets for some still to be finalised and whilst the cards have now all been dealt, some will not be played. There are always defections, normally through injury or illness right up to the start of the meeting, including (unfortunately) some high profile entries.
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Noble Price fav when he hasn't won for ages.
Bobs Worth - how he can be shorter now than at start of the season. First Lientenant - awful price was 20s 3 weeks ago that was about right. |
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First Lieutenant is a great shout. Awful price.
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Grands Crus stats are all against it for RSA and I wouldnt be touching that. Last 48 winners all ran in same calendar year and he hasn't for a start. Spent more than one season over hurdles and is also the Feltham winne whose record is shocking. 10-1 Gold Cup is just plain daft.
Sprinter Sacre is woefully short at 5-4 Oscar Whisky was treading on water over 2m 4 Aintree hurdle so upped 4f against Big Bucks at 9-2 isnt the best Rubi Light is poor at 5s for Ryanair given he lost in this last year and needs a bog Simonsig found nothing against Fingal Bay at Sandown so how can he win over 1f further in a Neptune? Sizing Europe - 10 of last 11 defending champs beat. 11-10? Record of 5yos in Champion Hurdle is something like 1 win from 100 and that was Katchit in the worst Champ Hurdle ever so Zarkandar is crap at 6s against a winning machine |
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I am with Harry in having doubts about Montbazon - that was a pretty average bumper he couldn't win earlier in the season and I wonder if he could also be a flat track bully.
There are a multitude who are opposable at the head of the Albert Bartlett market. I am having increasing doubts about Brindisi Breeze in terms of the ground but for me he still goes there with the best performance in the book. Probably the two worst value are Sea Of Thunder and Rocky Creek. Sea Of Thunder is priced up on the basis of that pretty ordinary novice he would have won but for falling. Can't really see why Make Your Mark is a much bigger price for both his entries given that he has already shown that he is the superior animal. Rocky Creek is priced up purely on reputation. He had the run of the race at Doncaster and shouldn't be any shorter than 20/1. On the book Knock A Hand is better than both Sea Of Thunder and Rocky Creek but is currently four times the price. |
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still lots of bad value to be had if you want
seriously suspect a lot of these will be bigger on the day, bookies just catching all those punters who just have to be "on" |
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Any horse that could run in more than one race is probably bad value at this stage e.g
If horse A is 12/1 for the supreme novice and 12/1 for the neptune and its 50/50 as to which race it will run in ,then the true odds your getting is 6/1 if you back it for one or both of these races ,unless it's NRNB. |
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differentdrum am with you all the way on the albert bartlett...and i have some on sea of thunder but he was woeful the last day and at the prices, is not appealing, the ground will suit more at cheltenham, but at the prices makes no appeal...cannot wait to get involved here as soon as i know for sure that bostons goes the other way...rocky creek won a race where gullinburst found nothing and the pipe horse ran like a drain...
scotsirish at 5-2 is horrible...an habitual loser his whole career he makes no appeal in the x country...he will show up for a long way before doing what he does best...flatter to deceive...one thing for sure, we won't be seeing a 1 next to his name after this race...horrid creature |
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differentdrum -
Sandy Seymour, his owner, is keen to go to Cheltenham but like us he recognises that Brindisi Breeze will need a cut in the ground. He will be prepared for the Albert Bartlett 3m novice hurdle. Quote from Lucinda Russell. |
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Surely the worst value at the festival will be my favourite horse (Not a contradiction in terms) Quantativeeasing. I'm not one to argue with trainers but surely Henderson has missed a trick in not running him in the 'Plate' on the Thurs. I'm sure the stat boys on here can confirm but if QE wins off 153 but I suspect not..... If it does, you will see a Jamaican man walking naked on the Cheltenham course & believe me I dont want to do that. Waited 3 mths for this horse & I believe Hendo as made the biggest ***k up since Greville rode DB in the 86' derby.
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Peddler's Cross is the worst of the lot for me (I actually think the favourite is decent at 5/4 but even if that's mistaken i'd still prefer Al Ferof and Cue Card at the prices to Peddler's who ought to be about 8s)
Hurricane Fly too short at odds on ante post in my view although of course the most likely winner. Long Run looks pretty short given how unconvincing he has been this season. 5/1 Finian's Rainbow is another shocking price. Wouldnt take 10s. |
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Agree with Peddlers Cross. Done nothing to conclusively suggest he is the real deal as a chaser. Beat nothing in two runs at Bangor and was well and truly put in its place behind Sprinter Sacre, even if it was slightly below par (although they were always going to say that).
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Henderson is trying to get QE qualified for the National your majesty. Needs to finish 1,2,3,4 in a 3m chase.
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Oscar Whisky for me in the World Hurdle at 7/2... Has no chance for me of winning the race, and I wouldn't be certain he'll place anyway. May as well just set money on fire than back him to win it!
Not a definate stayer, and Thousand Stars & Dynaste will not be far away. |
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without a doubt the worst value at the festival is one of these two...take your pick
1,a lap dance in the fez bar,at 20nicker a time 2,a hot food snack on track,at 7nicker a time 3,10-1 about t itsup getting the first round of beers in. |
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tweedledumbtweedletwat, worse thing about option 1 is a Vodka Coke in a club in Cheltenham tends to be job done... 1/5 of price and more entertaining!
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Kauto in the GC. Has absolute no chance. It's between Long Run and Grands Crus if it runs. Only decent outsider is Weird Al.
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^er, OK. 2 from 2 in Grade 1 races this season, both against his main opponent, = "no chance"?
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Stronny you silly mug. Remember to read this on GC day when it trails in 4th or 5th
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He might well, but even then that means he had a finite chance of winning. I think Long Run is the most likley winner and Burton Port has a strong chance, but to say Kauto has "no chance" is silly.
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I suppose you'd be tempted backing Seb Coe to win the 2012 1500m. Face it man, the horse is finished as far as Cheltenham is concerned. It's been one of the best ever but it's gone. It has NO CHANCE
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I'm reliably informed that Lord Coe is going to use his power and influence to turn the 2012 1500m into a weight for age handicap with the 1984 Olympic Champion getting in on a very favourable mark so I'd be careful with that analogy.
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I'm not going to be backing Kauto, but to say he has no chance is dumb. Most people including myself thought he would never win a Grade 1 again but he has done twice this season
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