Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle winner??
Champion Hurdle winner??
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Replies: 66
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^^^
thats the news the Mullins yard has been dreading and the layers wanted to hear. |
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Can't really understand the price on Rock On Ruby. Just caught on the line in last year's Neptune, beat Raya Star 8 lengths further than Zarkandar at Newbury conceding 1lb more then ran Binocular very close over a course and distance which favoured O'Neills horse over Christmas. On RPRs he's 10lbs ahead of Zarkandar and 7lbs below Hurricane Fly and 4lbs below Binocular. Also going forward verey rapidly and likely to be better still at Cheltenham on better ground.
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Can't really understand the price on Rock On Ruby. Just caught on the line in last year's Neptune, beat Raya Star 8 lengths further than Zarkandar at Newbury conceding 1lb more then ran Binocular very close over a course and distance which favoured O'Neills horse over Christmas. On RPRs he's 10lbs ahead of Zarkandar and 7lbs below Hurricane Fly and 4lbs below Binocular. Also going forward verey rapidly and likely to be better still at Cheltenham on better ground.
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You don't get an edge following mainstream opinion but for me there has to be sound reasons for taking on the fav and in this case I don't see them. It is indicative of HF's ability that he could beat Group 1 winners on the flat and I for one can't see him beaten
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You oppose a fave when there are ****s in the armour, in this case there are none.
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LAY IT OFF AT 7.0 AND TAKE A PORFIT
WIN OR LOSE TRADING LAD # |
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You don't get an edge following mainstream opinion but for me there has to be sound reasons for taking on the fav and in this case I don't see them. It is indicative of HF's ability that he could beat Group 1 winners on the flat and I for one can't see him beaten
I cannot disagree with that and it did beat PC fair and square, HF is the most likely winner for sure but I do feel Zark is a decent threat , ROR too as mentioned by poster above is a threat as is Binocular who in many good judges opinion put up a better performance than HF when winning two years ago. |
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Bino beat Khyber Kim and Zaynar in his CH. The fav got injured in the race and the second fav had an interrupted preparation. It was a very poor race for a CH
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Or you could look at last year's in the same way and say that in HF's CH he beat 2 horses just out of novice class, who really needed further, after the most likely winner missed the race because of a badly timed course of antibiotics...
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Im going to Fly(pardon the pun) against the general consensus here for a couple of reasons. im taking him on in a couple of ways, unless the ground turns soft and then ill play in the without market
1. Champion Hurdle 2011, hes quite hard ridden to win although he's travelled well into it. so on the bare bones of the form he's, 1.5l better than Peddlars and 8l in front of Thousand Stars. Doesnt sound that scary, what price would peddlars be in this CH?? 2. Forgetting Punchestown, where Bino was ridden from the front on seemingly one of his days under a cloud, HF has been beating up the same old faces again and again, he hasnt faced a on song Bino or indeed the up and coming ROR or Zarkander The only bet ive had so far is ROR without HF, i dont think there is that great a depth in the race to keep him out of the 4 if he runs to his best and the better pace will suit him well. if its good ground at Chelt id play a ROR/Bino rfc and both to beat Zark, not saying that Hurricane cant win, but if im right i want to be REALLY right. Cue abuse and potential Egg on face, but if i was backing a 8/11 shot at the festival(which i probably never will) id want him to have beaten all his rivals |
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thieves thats a big assumption that he was the most likely winner ! Lets stick to what actually happened on the track. Are you for one minute trying to tell me that the field for last years CH was worse than in Bino's CH. In beating PC and OW he beat horses with any amount of potential. What I would concede is that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th possibly/probably need further but at least their subsequent performances have upheld the form unlike those in the 2010 CH.
zilzal I can understand people looking for alternatives on the grounds of price. I backed HF to win both CH's at 3/1 and am not fond of backing odds on, although I have previously made exceptions where HF is concerned. Your comments re HF beating the same horses was trotted out last year as a negative. Since he has come over from France he has shown a huge amount of class in beating everything put in front of him, you're hardly going to hold that against him are you? I can see ROR running well but hope HF proves himself as champion again for those (for reasons beyond me) who weren't convinced first time around |
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Khyber Kim won a Grade 1 AFTER the 2010 CH, same G1 race as Oscar Whisky in fact but more convincingly. I don't see that race as in any way weaker, whatever the excuses for some of the runners. People also forget how progressive Zaynar was before he went funny.
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HF should win and its hard to find a weakness when a horse just keeps on winning. The only one i can think of is that hes hard to train and Mullins always pulls him out of races that he doesn't think hes 100% for (anyone got any idea how many times thats happened?).
Not saying he would pull him out of the champion hurdle but it could be one of those rare times when you might see a 95% HF race. |
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1. Khyber Kim
2. Muirhead 3. Zaynar 4. Won In The Dark 5. Petit Robin 6. Quwetwo F Celestial Halo Aintree Hurdle 2010 - another stellar line up.....well something had to win it. Well done thieves you found the only meaningful winner from the 2010 CH |
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Meant to say the only meaningful winner from the vanquished in 2010 CH
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I can confirm that eastayrshire is NOT Nick Luck.
Nick Luck buys his round. |
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Lots of graded winners in the race markphisto, including a defending champion, was far from a weak renewal. In the absence of a defending champion, HF had far less to beat and did it less impressively. Out of interest, the official handicapper rated both performances equally at 172, while Racing Post ratings had Binocular's CH win as 1lb better than HF's. Raceform timefigures say Bino was actually 8L faster than HF while Top Speed put the gap 14lbs in Bino's favour. Not just me then...
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Lots of graded winners in the race markphisto, including a defending champion, was far from a weak renewal. In the absence of a defending champion, HF had far less to beat and did it less impressively. Out of interest, the official handicapper rated both performances equally at 172, while Racing Post ratings had Binocular's CH win as 1lb better than HF's. Raceform timefigures say Bino was actually 8L faster than HF while Top Speed put the gap 14lbs in Bino's favour. Not just me then...
This is what I alluded to, I knew I had read this but cba tracking it down and posting it  |
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I can confirm that eastayrshire is NOT Nick Luck.
Nick Luck buys his round. Oh noes, I'm being dissed by a forum heavyweight , I can confirm that Johnn himself likes the Zark despite an HF position ] |
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So it'll be Binocular then?
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I can confirm the rumours about 'eastayrshire' and his non-round buying form.... poor
 .Oh....and it's 'The Fly' all the way in Ch hurdle....pity the value has long gone. |
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He's watching a replay of the Betfair with his breeks round his ankles as we type.....
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am goin all in on the fly got 250 all in on him so far and will be putting every penny i have on him 2 weeks tomo the fly just blows the rivals away everytime even if the best form bino turns up its got no chance can anyone see the fly getting beat as easy in the fighting 5th from overturn they way bino did and no excuse he was fully wound up that day the flys one run this season not fully wound up and still laughs at them bigger cert than big bucks this year for me lets av it come fly with to the cash cow
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I am a fan of Hurricane Fly and I think he’ll win. However, if you want to make a case against, consider the following.
Apart from his maiden, I think the fastest ground conditions he has encountered were at Punchestown in 2010 when Solwhit got the closest he ever got to him (apart from the time he beat him when Hurricane was injured), and in last year’s champion when he had a struggle against Peddlers. His two runs after last year’s champion have both been on awful days weatherwise at Punchestown and Leopardstown, and they have been possibly his two best performances, along with when he slaughtered Go Native on soft at Leopardstown three months before Go Native won the Supreme. So if we get a nice day with ground similar to last year, we may not see Hurricane at his best. I think that’s just straw-clutching though. His trainer’s comments suggest that the horse has matured this year, that he is less buzzy day-to-day, and therefore the hard-pulling which counted against him last year might not happen this year, and so he may show some improvement, even if the ground isn’t ideal. Montjeu used to race with his head in the air a bit, and there was a suspicion that he was a bit soft. There is zero evidence of that with this horse. His neck always stretches out, not up, when it gets tough. He’s bombproof (apart from the fact that he’s a horse and anything can go wrong). |
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@thieveslikeus - The 2011 CH has already produced double the amount of subsequent Grade 1 wins compared to the 2010 version. In any event I doubt the Mullins camp are too worried about Bino......seen as he hasn't even managed to beat Thousand Stars yet !
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Markphisto, you know it isn't as simple as that. Don't believe me believe the professional form and time raters.
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Just a bit of banter. Lets hope they all get there and may the best horse win
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