Champion Hurdle winner??

And Binocular wins :-( lol, have backed the Zark myself , tbh I'd be looking simply to trade out to get a free bet if poss, I'm not a huge fan of the opinion that HF is totally unbeatable, I'm convinced if Zark is near it going up the hill it will battle well, not to mention Binocular whose performance when winning the CH IMHO is at least equal to HFs  win, it's run LTO also seems to confirm it is in excellent form. Free bet for me, take your value now IMHO .

Lay it off - that's the whole point of betfair!!

You've found yourself in the fortuntae position of backing well ante post and now is the time to take advantage and have a free ride. Also, 5yr olds have an horrific record in the CH!

think Zarkander looks more of a stayer its the Fly all the way.

It didn't take an impressive 5yo to beat the 5yo stat, it took an experienced one (Katchit).  As far as I'm concerned there is no negative 5yo stat just a negative inexperienced horses stat.

It didn't take an impressive 5yo to beat the 5yo stat, it took an experienced one (Katchit).  As far as I'm concerned there is no negative 5yo stat just a negative inexperienced horses stat.


Fair if moot point  ;-), katchit as a lone beacon of support for the experience theory can't be regarded as a definitive and objective example of proof positive, then again that's the nature of this puzzle , I've read your theory on this and you make a beguiling argument which I wouldn't disagree with, whatever this imperceptible effect is the Zark would need to overcome it, one facet it has that I feel sure will stand it in good stead is its battling qualities AND a very impressive gear right where it counts at the business end of a race, surely a big positive for Cheltenham

Eastayrshire, yes it is moot on Zarkandar but far from moot when considering the race as a whole.  Minimum 15 starts under rules, any age in last 2 decades.  Only the exceptional Hardy Eustace with 15 starts, every other winner 17+.   Wish I'd worked it out 10 years ago and not 2 years ago...

The question is Nick, how good was that form? Zarkander ran to 160 ish which leaves him a stone to find with Hurricane Fly. he was sick after the race. Did that affect him on the Betfair? Will he get over it? Will he improve for the run? How much? Lots and lots of uncertainties.

Even if they were rated closely, i'd back the battle hardened champion over the near-novice.

still think triumph hurdle winners make better stayers than speedsters.the fly to have too many gears for me think Ruby thinks so too.

The question is Nick, how good was that form? Zarkander ran to 160 ish which leaves him a stone to find with Hurricane Fly. he was sick after the race. Did that affect him on the Betfair? Will he get over it? Will he improve for the run? How much? Lots and lots of uncertainties.

Even if they were rated closely, i'd back the battle hardened champion over the near-novice.

Sadly for us Zark lovers this makes absolute sense and is difficult to rationally oppose, but yknow when you just get that feeling about a horse?.......lol , seriously tho strontiums appraisal is spot on, def worrying about the cough etc too.

Yeah he probably does still have a stone to find with HF but firstly he was ill for the betfair which would have made a difference, secondly the went a slow untrue pace which didn't suit him as he can definitely stay further than 16f so a fast pace with the likes of overturn it will make it a bigger test of stamina & thirdly & most importantly fto after 10 months off he will definitely benefit massively from the run & can improve enough to challenge HF but the big question is will it be enough! I for one can't wait to find out!!

Here...no-one has mentioned the possibility of 'bounce' factor....just sayin'

Imagine if he doen't make it at all.....then all the top 5yo's would be missing !!

True strontium but needless to say their presence would have added greatly to this years race

Food for thought.....What if Darlan had stood up in the Betfair and not impeded Get Me Out of Here. Possible that Zarkandar could have only finished third to a novice (who was only receiving 5lb). Couple that with the way he travelled, his illness and well... peoples expectations in the CH could be quite different....

The "bounce" factor is an oft used term which for me means nothing, it's an unprovable hypotheses that has caught some people's imagination, it kinda sounds plausible, sloppy thinking IMHO, it may exist it may not so factoring that in to any appraisals is folly imho.
As for Darlan, dear oh dear , it takes a HUGE leap of faith to extrapolate the outcome described , fgs no way can anyone tell how it would have fared,furthermore Zark beat GMOOH fair and square, which reminds me that it's beating of GMOOH confirms that it can beat shores we know has performed well at Cheltenham , there are way too many positive indicators about Zark for it to be misinterpretation IMHO , and don't be fooled by jockeys opinions, yes sometimes they know but here's the news,OFTEN they don't , if Zark  wins look over to the best mate stand and you'll see me cartwheeling down the steps :-), not that I have a huge amount on it £15 @ 11 to be precise.

I'd sit tight on the bet. Clearly you were happy to lose £100 otherwise you wouldn't of placed the bet, so don't let the fact you can trade off force your hand!

which reminds me that it's beating of GMOOH confirms that it can beat shores we know has performed well at Cheltenham

eastayrshire????

Clearly Zarkandar is very talented, the question is can he win the CH. You talk about many positive indicators. In terms of winning this years CH there are many negatives;
1. 5yo's have a terrible record...fact
2. Whether you believe it or not it takes time for horses to get over a hard race after a long layoff...so I personally wouldn't dismiss this possibility out of hand especially as he has been unwell.
3. Looks like he possibly needs further and his chances are dependant on a fast run race.
4. Judged on previous performances he may well still get outpaced at a vital stage of the race.
5. Clearly not ideal to be coughing and on antibiotics so close to the big day.
6. Formwise must improve alot on what he has done to date IMO

If it was me I'd lay it back

I think laying off for a free bet is the smart call. Personally believe Hurricane Fly and Binocular have much better chances than Zark, for all that he is improving and exciting.

The other issue if you are considering laying off is that Zark has looked like being beaten in his last three races and traded at big odds in running. I very much doubt that he will tank through the Champion. His only chance is staying on past the speedier types, and I doubt he will be able to outstay the Fly (or have the speed to get to Binocular). Either way, he looks unlikely to trade shorter in the run unless he wins, so if you are thinking of covering your stake I'd suggest pre-race is the time to do it.

Yes I concede that Zark beating  GMOOH isn't a huge plus as regards winning the CH, GMOOH however so nearly won the SN and has proven tenacity, fair point tho tbh I was merely adding as many positives as I could :-), however as for Zark being outpaced , erm it won yeah?, AND IMHO if Zark is with HF going up the hill I'm thinking Zark will prevail, to be fair though it might not get near HF. One thing I AM sure of though is there is a huge amount of hyperbole surrounding HF, it may or may not be warranted, but you don't get an edge by following mainstream opinion, just sayin.........

I know the winner its 100% HF.