Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 125 comments are related to the topic:
PW Ryanair Pick
PW Ryanair Pick
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 125
|
By:
am a big gr8 endevour fan trip course for excellent granted has bit to find but really improved this year going each way trble with buena vista and balder succes
|
|
By:
rubi light can go on fast ground as he proved in last yrs race, it was only 3 out cost him, improved mountains since then, any ground will do, as long as he still got 4 legs come raceday he cud round backwards and still win, there'll be monster gamble on this come raceday trust me, will go off 3's a t best
|
|
By:
that's not what the trainer thinks
he has been quoted several times saying "he don't want it too quick" if it's quick going I think it will drift like a barge so one of us is going to be wrong at least - if not both and as a ratings man myself I can tell you I have studied Rubi Lights performance since and including the Ryan Air and the performances have a spread of no more than 7lbs from best to worst - consistent efforts yes, not really any significant improvement Look up any reliable sets of ratings you like, I am convinced they will all say the same. Oh, and his two highest ratings of 169 and 167 both came on heavy going where he front ran in fields of 5 and 4 runners. Ignore those and his best effort is 166 in last years Ryan Air... and 166 aint gonna get it done but what do I know? |
|
By:
rubi light has stuffed horses that have been running over inadequate trips.a do not think it will win .but a lot off shrewdies i know say its there nap of meetinga all bowt opinions
|
|
By:
Someone only has to mention the words "Rubi" and "Light" and you're all over it like flies round ****
|
|
By:
only mention?
ffs read the post I was responding to "massive gamble", "goes on anything" "massive improvement" complete subjective bollox written by a fan boy with zero objectivity that's why I was responded - it was a bs post but then most of the posts surrounding that horse are |
|
By:
"go round backwards and win"
 |
|
By:
Do you just use numbers and ratings blind?
Big Bucks has been on an official rating of 174 since April 09. Are you telling me he hasn't improved one pound in nearly 3 years. Hurricane Fly had 4 runs rated 166,166,166 and 167 - did he only improve 1 pound over 4 runs? I'd rather use my judgement and my eye. Just because a horse doesn't improve an OR or an RPR doesn't mean they're not improving! |
|
By:
right, of course you can just look and be able to tell that and that the form is better than any other horse is capable of producing without referring to any ratings
I must be massively inferior because I actually look for evidence and measurements to support my opinions rather than using visual impression. |
|
By:
well chief
that just about sums it up for me too. |
|
By:
I can't see which form has Rubi Light improving. Ok he would have beaten SE if he stayed on his feet but SE was massively below form that day as the proximity of the 3rd shows. He beat Joncol 5 lengths but is that a better run than last years Ryanair? Too early to **** his latest run. It's possible Chicago Grey hs been under performing until the GN weights came out and will now show better form.
|
|
By:
I have no doubt Judorick you know your horses and everyone is entitled to their opinion but I think by the sound of it you are coming under pressure!
|
|
By:
judo u constanlty yapping on about ratings, its tiring, this horse is a class act improving and cant wait til it wins and u can admit u got this 1 wrong
|
|
By:
he aint improved judo, but last years winner albertas, chelt specialist is 12/1 , ys rubi 5's? and albertas likely gonna get the ground he wants
|
|
By:
rubi lights run in last years ryanair proves he doesn't need bad ground, what's the first thing to go if that were the case...outpaced!! yet he travelled easily on the ground and it was he that quickened the pace and had them in trouble, even after the bad mistake at the 3rd last he stayed on again well....and as for beating horses like chicago grey over its wrong trip, well yes, but he beat him 16 and it could have been doubled at will, what's wrong with that.
|
|
By:
As an interesting intermediary on this one, I fancy two horses in the Ryanair and they are Rubi Light and Great Endeavour
 !The latter I feel was as impressive a winner of the Paddy Power as I have ever seen, and I agree with Judo's position that the Ryanair could well provide every single one of the characteristics that allow him to run to his peak, which I don't think it does for any of the others (save maybe Alberta's). Also, I know this is a simplistic view, but have a read of the roll of honour for the Paddy Power and it is not hard to see this one following a long-established pattern of proving himself a Grade One horse. As for Rubi Light, I think he is very classy, ran a blinder last year, will not be as inconvenienced by good ground as many think, and is coming in to the race in peak form. I am sure he is capable of running in the 170s and that could be good enough. I am not a ratings man as much as some others, so for me I couldn't really care that he has not improved his RPR much this season. He has maintained it at a very high level, and I don't think it is easy to run in the 170s when you are beating up weak opposition in small field chases. I don't think he stayed three miles and has not really had the chance to run much higher than he has in his other races, but last year's Ryanair effort points to his ability to do so in my opinion. |
|
By:
Tom, as usual I can't fault any of that.
When a horse reaches a certain rating they can still run to a very high level and not have that rating improved. My Big Bucks and Hurricane Fly examples above show that. Somersby ran a blinder at Ascot and never had his rating increased, Oscar Whisky has ran to a high level and has never had his rating increased since last year. Why? Because he hasn't raced in as competitive race, but that doesn't mean he hasn't improved since the Champion Hurdle. Its only when all the big boys line up at Cheltenham do ratings of those in the 160's go up. Its easy to raise a second season novice a good few pounds, or one that is low in the handicap, but the higher in the weights you get the more they level out no matter how well you run. Just because Rubi Light hasn't improved his rating, it does not mean he has not improved. When comparing Grade 1 horses, ratings are meaningless to me. Poquelin has the highest rating of all the Ryanair horses, which says it all to me. |
|
By:
I think Somersby has the class to win this. Not the easiest of horses to get a handle on. Seems to love Ascot but has run well at Cheltenham a few times too. Looks the hardest non handicap race to have a very strong fancy in tbh.
|
|
By:
The most pertinent part of today's PW feature for me was an upbeat quote from Jonjo O'Neill with regard to the well being of Albertas Run.
|
|
By:
Alberta's is definitely a tough one for me to weigh up. I very nearly backed him two years ago and got it right 12 months ago when he dug me out of a hole at a nice price ante-post. You have to respect him hugely based on this race giving him exactly what he needs to excel, but from what is probably an illogical standpoint, I am struggling having him as a four-time Festival winner when so many genuine champions fail to win more than twice.
I am concerned about his absence, too. Not because he won't run well fresh but because we have no idea if at the age of 11 he is still as good as he was, and given the strength in depth here, I think he'll have to be. For those reasons I am dodging him but can completely understand why people would back him at the prices. Fantastic horse. |
|
By:
he is an amazing horse and one that i've never backed
i remember watching him trying to keep tabs on MM at ascot early last season and taking an horrendous looking fall as a consequence...i thought to myself at that moment, well that's the last we'll see of him!! |
|
By:
Hes never been fashionable to back imo,always a big price and often delivers when it matters ie at the festival.
Just love it when hes ignored and punted against,and its happening again,although with his problems i can understand that this year.But if he is right on the day he will be bang there.Not one horse in the race that has proved better than Albertas over 21f at Cheltenham. |
|
By:
wouldnt touch this race with a barge pole from a betting point of view, any of the first 8 in the betting could win this on his day, although it will be one hell of a race...
|
|
By:
Wellchief,
You make good points re ratings and in particular Oscar Whisky. Its clear to me that the horse has improved this season but if his rating remains the same,it cannot be accurate. Ive never as far as i can remember ever looked at a horses rating when punting. I do ok,maybe if i did i would do better,but then again the opposite might happen. I will stick i think. |
|
By:
Budd - it's amazing about Albertas isn't it? This is a genuinely top class horse with a superb record at the major festivals and in the highest class. Maybe it's because he specialises in an unfashionable trip, or maybe it's because he always struggles in the winter, but people always underrate him. I know he's 11 now and he's coming back from an injury, but his price is unbeliveable for a track and Festival specialist. I'll probably keep backing hem until he shows me he can't do it any more.
|
|
By:
Yeh,i certainly find it anazing mate,people are always backing shorter priced horses,poquelin being a perfect example,and no mater how many times AR goes and proves them wrong,you can be sure it happens again next time,amazing but great!!
Hes won me more money then any other horse and thats due to his price being too big,and his consistency on the big occasion. Yep,keep backing him mate,i will. |
|
By:
Was it last year or the year before someone put AR up on this very forum as a dark horse at 33/1 antepost for the ryanair, put me onto it too, and it dotted up!
|
|
By:
Anyone know what race is being PW'd next week?
|
|
By:
I had Albertas Run for his RSA win at 5/1 and then two years ago at 33/1 antepost. I wasnt going to back him last year but then as soon as Buena Vista went in in the race before, me and my mate looked at each other, and both said the same thing. The ground is good, lets get on Albertas Run. We both did sizeable doubles on it and Big Buck's and it turned our festivals around.
Love that horse! |
|
By:
@MPR Its the Neptune
|
|
By:
Did Pricewise go for Albertas Run then?
Two 11 year olds have managed to win a race in the last 10 Festivals, only trouble is 202 have run which makes it seem an usual tip for PW where I thought the idea was to get an edge |
|
By:
He tipped Medermit
|
|
By:
thats good,had him backed after Exeter when the price was rather generous i thought.
Will be backing another and did not want pw ruining the price. |
|
By:
ah thanks
|
|
By:
talking of albertas - jonjo latest - "he came back injured after the Old Roan but he's recovering and we cant wait for the festival. He'll go straight to Cheltenham - he might have a racecourse gallop or two but that will be it"
i've defended this horse to the hilt and always will. always underestimated...... |
|
By:
not the best prep and 11 yo now, a very unlikely winner statistically but each to their own methods I suppose
|
|
By:
Thats good to hear pun run,like you i always defend the horse,age will catch up,but till he shows me it has he will be on my side.
|
|
By:
Great Endeavour looking a little weak in the market - had thought this was because Pipe was considering handicaps as well but he looks weak enough in them too. Hope all is well...
|
|
By:
Yeah, he is taking a little bit of a walk, out to 17.
Nothing to be alarmed at the moment, maybe people backing him hoping he'd be Pricewised, and now getting rid? I'd keep an eye on it if I was a backer anyway. |
|
By:
Great Endeavour. Not alone has he never won a grade one he has not even run in a grade one or a grade 2. Of course he might prove me wrong but ....
|