Cheltenham Festival
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PW Ryanair Pick
PW Ryanair Pick
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Replies: 125
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did Seagull go for Medermit then?
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Its difficult enough to pick the winner of a race without having to second guess some tipster or other - crazy - a bit like virtual racing.
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judorick,watch last yrs again, KK only finished 2nd because of a very poor ride from G lee,
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fair enough if you say so, makes it even harder for RL to win then if you are correct
as for quick ground, the meeting is likely to start on good with good to soft in places and get quicker - by the Thursday it could easily be the quick side of good see what the time of the Arkle comes in at |
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Yes he did Judorick re Medermit, good mention for Endeavour as well.
Think it should be drifting not coming in given his previous ante-post selections. Captain Chris 20/1 Gold Cup Oscars Well ( e/w ) 25/1 Champion Hurdle Wishful Thinking 20/1 Champion Chase Carlito Brigante ( e/w ) 50/1 World Hurdle Menorah 16/1 Arkle Silviniaco Conti 16/1 Sun Alliance First Lieutenant 12/1 " " Midnight Game 14/1 Supreme Vulcanite 20/1 " How many of these would you back now? Best chance maybe Oscars Well place imo. |
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i dont think they will let it go the quick side of gd mate, theyll water if it starts to get to dry
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they stop watering on the tuesday
cant ever remember them watering during the week |
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Correct when was last time they ran on Good-Firm at Festival since watering policy?
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they ll have it maybe good , but def no quicker !
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I agree that I find it hard to see Rubi Light winning on the likely ground. He is indeed very good with dig in the ground but imo will always come up a little short in a Grade 1 on good ground.
However judo you were the person who brought up last year's form, so how do you see GE turning the formlines round? as wellchief said Poquelin beat GE conceding over a stone - twice. And RL beat Poquelin in last year's Ryanair obviously off levels? |
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also you need to remember that there is frequently a difference between what the official going description is and what the race times indicate
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just watched lasts yrs again FFS lee!!!!!
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I already rate Great Endeavour better than Medermit and that's all I can say - they both have outstanding claims
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will they water after the tuesday if needed?
I mean have they done so before? |
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I may have to write to the C of the C
I attended the Festival for every day of racing for 9 years straight and they never watered after the tuesday because of the rsk of false ground etc... I don't know if they would water in the evening but even if they did it would only be to keep the grass fresh the track drains so quickly that without watering or rain the going quickens up from tuesday to thursday AND the water table will be very low this year because of the lack of rain meaning there is a steep gradient could be quick going this year |
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I'm sure I remember last year on the day, a few of PW ante post selections actually going off around the price he tipped them up at in his column.
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got a very quick response
They will water "to maintain safety" during the Festival but not during racing on either track and we need remember they change to the new course on the Thursday |
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So they are gonna water. Get on Rubi Light!!!!!
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the going is currently good
they are going to maintain which it will remain good this is no way suggests anyone should back Rubi Light |
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not going to respond on the formlines with poquelin then judo?
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kk holds poquelin on last yr even with the shockin ride on kk
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No referring to GE in relation to Rubi Light
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that was TWO years ago and so NO! because it is irrelevant as it is easy to see that the horse has im[proved bundles since the December Gold Cup 2010 or whenever
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It was last season actually and YOU brought up the formline with Rubi Light and Poquelin in last years Ryanair.
Yes I am sure GE has improved, I would suggest that Rubi Light has as well. I am actually genuinely interested in understanding why you believe GE will win from a form perspective |
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On all known form GE cannot win,has to be a hunch i reckon.
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No I didnt it was that total mug that did
I dont give two figs about last years race, that to me is irrelevant I dont think Rubi Light can be said to have improved much at all RPR 166 in last years RA and in 4 races since his best is 169 beating Chicago Grey ( a 4 mile stayer) on heavy. the form line that makes me think GE is top class is the Paddy Power and Spinal Research form with QE and Medermit. I happen to believe that had GE not blundered in the Spinal Race he would have won and quite impressively too (I know he did blunder but you cant factor that) So through QE who won the race, I have GE winning by a couple of lengths or more and producing a rating of 174 which would be enough to win if he produces it |
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Presumably it's that the form of the December handicap is very strong (won by quantitativeeasing) and GE beat Quant quite easily in the Paddy Power. I'm not sure handicap form translates so weel to the Ryanair nowadays (it certainly used to), but it's a reasonable form line to follow.
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Medermit confirmed the strength of the form in the Ascot chase and I rate Great Endeavour better than Medermit by about 6lbs really. Medermit just got 170 RPR which I think is 2lb high, so GE is 174 for me and he loves the track and needs good ground. The faster they go the better for him too
that's just my analysis and Medermit backs it up - just have to see if GE matches my estimation |
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Judo, out of interest, and generally (ie not just in this case), do you find ratings you generate in handicaps translate to G1 races? I feel with ORs a "170" in a G1 is often a lot sounder than a "170" obtained for a handicap.
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Last years race is very relevant as far as im concerned,and i would add NP and Medermit to those that ran in the race and i think thats where the winner will be found.
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So do i Stront.
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The aforementioned Poquelin is a good example of being wary of 170 ratings in a handicap. Although there is a big difference in the price Poquelin went off to the one GE will go off at.
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We shall see what happens
I am looking for potential and evidence that potential has been underestimated or indeed overestimated I set, as I have said, a potential peak performance rating for races/horses based on experience and generating ratings for best part of 25 years. I don't normally share all this but as I'm on and the prices have gone it don't matter. So in the Paddy Power Hcp Chase I awarded Great Endeavour a "peak potential" of 174 and I fully trust that rating. I expect him without question to be able to run to that when given ideal conditions. The last bit is important because the ideal conditions will vary for each horse - they all want something different - and for me Great Endeavour wants a true run race on good ground at slightly further than 2.5 miles but less than 3 miles in order to produce a 174 performance. Therefore, I will say now IF the first mile of the Ryan AIr is run at only a steady gallop Great Endeavour will lose unless it is he that is setting it. Same argument goes for Medermit. Anyway, there you go that's what I have been doing for years and years. There's no point in me telling you all the winners I have found with this method. I did, as you may have heard me say, run a very long running thread on a now extinct forum from 2002 to 2004 which made vast profits using exactly these methods and when you are betting 10-16/1 shots you don't need may winners to end up in front |
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True,but if they aint good enough,the price being bigger dont really matter.
Of course the price can make one take a chance,and its not an exact science,but i just think their are more likely winners of the race than GE. |
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Thanks judo - I appreciate your insight.
I can see what you mean about the strength of that race but to my eye it takes a huge leap of faith to say it would have won impressively as the mistake was so far out. It did make up ground okay and and then felt it in the last 3 furlongs but if you have it 6lbs ahead of Medermit on that, then that's for you to choose. One thing I completely disagree with however is that last year's Cheltenham form is irrelevant |
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Thanks Judo, I see.
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that's why it is a game of opinions - we will find out if he is good enough soon enough. I say "he has the potential" and at 14s to me it was worth finding out if my analysis is accurate as I know from experience it has been often enough to make it worthwhile
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Even i found that interesting Judo
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rubi light will be one of my biggest bets of the weak, cudnt possibly take it easy on this one! class act thats fur sure
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same method made me rate the Sprinter as a peak 165 after his debut run, that did not increase for his second run but the win at newbury has raised his peak potential to 175 on my method. He could yet increase that
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