Cheltenham Festival
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Anyone worried about the Paul Nicholls string??
Anyone worried about the Paul Nicholls string??
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CHAMPION trainer Paul Nicholls has cancelled his Cheltenham Festival media day on Wednesday and reported several horses in his yard to have coughed.
Nicholls, whose 16 runners on Saturday were all beaten, tweeted on Moneday morning: "Unfortunately we've had to cancel the Chelt media day on Wed. After a moderate weekend some horses have a cough. 1st priority now is to the horses and their owners." Expanding in his Betfair blog, Nicholls added: "It is fairly obvious that we had a moderate weekend with only one winner from 31 [Zarkandar at Newbury on Friday]. We have several horses coughing and not running to their form. "In these circumstances we do not feel it is appropriate to invite the media on Wednesday. I'm sure everyone agrees my horses and owners must come first at this stage." |
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Mr Henderson must have a smile on his face lol.
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And Mr Mullins
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Very grim news, though no great surprise. It might make some of my antepost bets on other horses look healthier but it will be a massive loss if his horses can't run, especially Big Bucks and Kauto Star.
Makes Zarkandars effort all the more meritorious. |
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Bad for the Festival though. Surely everyone wants to see the best horses running their best?
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Do you guys actually think there's a legitimate chance that some of his horses won't make the Festival? How long does it take a horse to recover from a cough? Not being sarcastic btw, just interested and concerned.
I agree about the Zarkandar point though, the fact that he still managed to win despite that, and having had the race not run to suit makes him more impressive. |
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dt - At this stage they'll probably make it, but they'll be missing work and Nicholls generally leaves a bit to work on at this time of year.
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Given the form of the rest of the stable, it makes the runs of Zarkander and Neptune Collonges look especially good, but also What a Friend.
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At least for his Gold Cup horses we'll know what sort of form the stable is in. More worrying if you're on one of his for the Champion Hurdle etc.
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I see Oscar Whisky has contracted a little today
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If they need antibiotics then they need be out of the horses system before they can run - see Binocular last year. The other worry may be that they could have spread the infection at the racecourse stables to other yards?
The only one of his that I might want to win is Big Bucks (but only if the other 3 reigning champs also win). |
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As long as they get on top of it very quickly, do not envisage too much of a problem for those who have not run recently.
However for those who have run, including Zarkandar, it may have a more negative effect if they were sick. Yes it may show Zarkandar's performance in a better light, but even less inclined to bet it on this news |
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most likely viral rather than bacterial so antibiotics are pointless
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of a horse has this cough now,whats the chances of it turning up at the festival fit to run??
not an expert on this myself |
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By the way, excellent OP Harry - good (if sad) call.
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I'd say just keep a very close eye on the betfair markets as regards his runners, if they stay somewhat stagnant then all is ok, but if there is any drift, get worried in my very honest opinion, there really is not a lot to worry over at this stage cos his horses are not drifting, you would imagine a small drift of say a couple of points in light of news of this nature but nothing has really!
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Cheers stront - well awful stuff with the festival just round the corner...all the doubles and trebles going on big bucks and kauto...desperate shame because like you say no one wants to see the champ trainer not have runners at the meeting...not big on viruses but can't imagine they will be able to work the horses others will know more???
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Lets not get carried away with this I think it's unlikely every horse in the stable is ill. The likes of Zarkandar, Neptune Collonges, What A Friend etc. are probably fine after running well. There is also the fact that the stables horses are pretty well spread out at Ditcheat and the likes of Rock On Ruby are miles away down at Richard Barbers. Hopefully they can diagnose the horses that have the virus, separate them from the others and get them back. Will they be ready for Cheltenham? How long is a piece of string? We have all had a cold for 24 hours or the flu that can linger for a week or two. It will depend on the strain of the virus and the individual horse like any other animal. I think if it's just a cough hopefully they can sort it out but the concern has to be missing crucial work before the festival.
Let's not forget the now very much back in form Alan King. He had a problem in his yard for how long? I would say years and he must now finally be delighted that his horses are back in flying form. I hope Paul's problem is minimal & like I say with the horses spread out it's unlikely to be a problem for them all. |
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Fair comments masterminded but it isn't good whichever way you cut it...it can take weeks - months to get over these sort of viruses and especially in a big yard...the problem is he ran some very high profile horses saturday silvi and kauto and they both hit the wall...I would be very concerned myself because if it is deep through the yard he won't be able to work them...I remember jonjo a few years ago took him 3 years to get it out the yard...very worrying stuff and now punting his horses are going to be very hit and miss I'd say...panic button stuff...
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Don't know if you have read his blog yet but believe it or not the only one he mentions that is ill is Zark? Kauto & Silvi fine?
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KS and SC ran against horses from other yards,trainers of those i imagine could be a tad concerned.
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Zark was up against quite a few.
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I haven't masterminded but if that is the case I'd be even more concerned...because for me a true sign of a virus that is bad is when horses travel and hit the wall which is exactly what happened to silvi and kauto...because that tells me they don't know what is wrong with them...
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Awful stuff for nicholls, owners, punters and fans. Fingers crossed they get rid quick time
Great spot Harry. I've also noticed you've picked up on other things too, like... Feeling MENORAH needs head gear Thinking CASH AND GO should be given more time and that Henderson has done a poor job trying to educate SPRINTER SACRE so would I be right in thinking you used to be a trainer or head lad yourself? |
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Cedre Bleu another one who did it & Rolling Aces at Wincanton. They come there travelling well but are not seeing out their races which is one of the strengths of PN's horses in general. Agree I think he would have been happier if he did find something wrong with them.
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Paul Nicholls is one of the most open and honest trainers around and in his betfair piece he said they might miss a few days work and then get back to it. I don't think he seemed overly concerned yet.
Massive over reaction if you ask me. |
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nicholls has runners at taunton tomorrow and I will be paying attention - the one in the novice hurdle should give Urb de Sivola on the ratings so let's see
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no never been a trainer...but like picking the bones out of things lets say, when valid...don't ever remember saying hendo had done a poor job with sprinter though...
yes master and hold fast never picked a leg up either, all the hallmarks of sick horses...would love to know which ones have been shipped out... |
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I wouldn't call it a massive over reaction crescent when he hasn't had a winner for 20 days apart from the lucky zarkander and a large amount of them running like drains and with the biggest jumping showpiece 3 weeks away...how anyone cannot be concerned defies logic imo...
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This is worth a read:
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/ante-post-plans/paul-nicholls-coughs-go-as-quickly-as-they-come-200212.html |
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the thing is with ailments it's not about how quickly you get over the symptoms it's about how long it takes you to recover peak performance and it can take weeks for any athlete
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"Buffy has run tests and washes on a lot of the horses and 80% haven't shown any negative signs."
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big thanks for the link strontium. sounds like its 1) blown out of proportion and 2)well under control. great honesty from a great trainer who seems like he will do everything in his power to ensure that nothing is left to chance with ALL of his string.
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good point judo...and thats where i'm at...
this paragraph i found interesting... Silivinaico Conti and Kauto Stone both disappointed but neither have shown any signs of illness since. In fact Buffy has run tests and washes on a lot of the horses and 80% haven't shown any negative signs. I think Silvinaico needed the run more than I thought as he didn't find much after the second last and we'll go straight to Aintree with him. I'll expect huge improvement from him there. Whilst Kauto Stone was way to head strong and looks like he ruined his chances by the time he got to the business end of the race. The plan is still the Ryanair for him as we know he is better than Saturday's showing. this made me laugh when they backed them both silly...make your own judgement but this wreaks of the plague to me.... heres a list of his fancied horses recently make your own mind up... 4/12 21L, Grandioso 11-2 15/8F Daryl Jacob 102 0 Video 18Feb12 Asc 16GS C4NHF 3K 7/14 20+L, Sin Bin 11-6 13/2 Sam Thomas 106 -12 Video 18Feb12 Asc 16GS C4NHF 3K 2/14 7+L, Atlantic Roller 11-2 7/2 R Walsh 113 — Video 18Feb12 Wcn 16Sft C1HG2 34K 2/5 6L, Celestial Halo 11-10 tb 7/4 Daryl Jacob 160 -4 Video 18Feb12 Asc 20GS C2HcH 24K 13/18 33L, Crack Away Jack 11-12 8/1 R Walsh 130 -25 Video 18Feb12 Hay 28Hy C1HcChG3 42K 2/14 ¼L, Neptune Collonges 11-5 8/1 Harry Derham 169 3 Video 18Feb12 Wcn 21Sft C3HcCh 7K 2/10 2¼L, Flaming Gorge 11-4 14/1 Daryl Jacob 133 6 Video 18Feb12 Asc 22GS C1ChG1 84K 7/8 71L, Kauto Stone 11-7 11/4 R Walsh 120 -46 Video 18Feb12 Wcn 21Sft C2HcCh 15K UR/13 Frankie Figg 10-7 t 16/1 David Prichard — — Video 18Feb12 Asc 24GS C1HcChL 22K F/12 The Minack 11-10 7/2F R Walsh — — Video 18Feb12 Hay 24Hy C1NvHG2 12K PU/9 Ruben Cotter 11-4 16/1 Ryan Mahon — — Video 18Feb12 Wcn 22GS C3HcH 5K 14/15 108L, Indian Daudaie 11-5 b1 33/1 David Prichard 48 -84 Video 18Feb12 Wcn 22GS C3HcH 5K 12/15 61L, Rolling Aces 11-5 t 4/1 Daryl Jacob 83 -47 Video 18Feb12 Asc 24GS C1NvChG2 14K 4/7 10½L, Silviniaco Conti 11-7 11/10F R Walsh 147 -17 Video 18Feb12 Asc 20GS C2NvH 10K F/10 Saint Roque 11-0 7/2 R Walsh — — Video 18Feb12 Wcn 16GS C4NvH 3K 4/13 24L, The Pretender 11-2 3/1 Daryl Jacob 96 -5 Video 17Feb12 Nby 17GS C1NHFL 5K 5/12 5¾L, Vrai Vert 11-2 7/1 R Walsh 130 10 Video 17Feb12 San 25Gd C3Ch 5K 2/10 ¼L, Aldertune 11-12 5/2 L-Bdr Jody Sole — — Video 17Feb12 Fak 25GS C3HcCh 7K 3/10 14L, Carlicue 10-11 t 5/1 Ryan Mahon — — Video 17Feb12 Nby 20GS C1NvChG1 14K 5/7 22L, Cedre Bleu 11-2 7/1 R Walsh 133 -7 Video 17Feb12 Nby 20GS C1NvChG1 14K F/7 Pacha Du Polder 11-2 18/1 Daryl Jacob — — Video 17Feb12 Fak 20GS C3NvH 5K 6/12 64L, Balding Banker 10-13 11/2 Ryan Mahon — — Video 17Feb12 Nby 25GS C2HcH 5K 6/15 27L, Deireadh Re 10-13 5/1 Harry Derham 124 -16 Video 17Feb12 San 25Gd C3HcCh 6K 2/13 5L, Martys Mission 9-12 3/1F Mr James Cowley — — Video 17Feb12 Fak 25GS C4Ch 4K 2/6 13L, Like Minded 10-11 t 10/11F Ryan Mahon — — Video 17Feb12 Nby 17GS C1HcHG3 86K 15/20 26L, Empire Levant 10-4 12/1 Daryl Jacob 131 -10 Video 17Feb12 Nby 17GS C1HcHG3 86K 7/20 9½L, Brampour 11-5 33/1 Harry Derham 158 -7 Video 17Feb12 Nby 17GS C1HcHG3 86K 1/20 1¼L, Zarkandar 11-1 11/4F R Walsh 156 2 Video 17Feb12 Nby 24GS C1ChG2 17K 5/5 19½L, Tidal Bay 11-0 5/1 R Walsh 154 -9 Video 17Feb12 Nby 24GS C1ChG2 17K 3/5 4¼L, What A Friend 11-0 b 9/1 Daryl Jacob 167 -5 Video 17Feb12 Nby 17GS C1ChG2 17K 5/6 37L, Hold Fast 11-4 6/1 |
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as I said Harry I am not planning to back any of his anyway, with a possible exception of R on R, so I am not losing sleep... in fact, it might help get an edge
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me to judo...and yes looking forward to the edge
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those results aren't as bad as they 1st seem. ok a few of the shorter priced runners got well beaten but every stable has those but there is also quite a few long priced runners in there. i would just see that as a couple of bad days at the office.
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correct me if im wrong.....isnt hold on julio been pulled out due to the horse coughing 2 weeks ago?
Has kingys yard suffered?hes in tremendous form.... my point is a yard which houses 100plus horses will always have a few coughing,anmd it need not affect the whole yard. Lets hope all the best horses make it fit n well. |
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Hasn't stopped AF shortening by the best part of half a point on here in the last 24hrs. Price will be the number 1 indicator in all of this. No matter how tightly a yard is run word will get out and some staff will use info to their advantage. If the prices are stable or better still contracting it's safe to assume that all is well with that particular horse.
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