theives- i actually think long run is the most underatted out of the horses menitioned, afterall hes won 6 gr1 and 2nd in 2, denman in his entire career only won 4, so LR not doing bad considering hes only 7yo, i see him a great bet for this yrs' gold cup, and whose to say he cant but on a good show in a few  more gold cups?

ye ur rite jumping is name of the game, but with long runs engine, he only has to jump half decent, i think its shows how good he acutually is as he was out jumped all the way around when he won the gold cup and still won a street, kG as different he jumped awful and got going to late, 3m on flat track is totally different to wha he'll get at chelt, any 1 in the rite mind cant say that kauto wud of won kg if they had another 2f uphill, neways i cashed in last yr and i think ill be cashing in again! we'll c

This is the first I've really talked of the Gold Cup on here.  Might sound stupid to a lot of people, but its a race that I've never really been that bothered about.  I much prefer 2m hurdlers and chasers jumping at pace, but anyways.

I took a punt on Long Run in the GC last year, because I couldn't have an emphatic King George winner being around 6/1.

However this year, he has been beaten by Kauto twice, and although he may have had excuses, he has still been beaten on both occasions.  Therefore I think taking around 2/1 is on the very skinny side if you ask me.  Long Run is a good horse, but wouldn't have lived with Denman when he won the Gold Cup and wouldn't have lived with Kauto on his second.

For this years, this is one of the trickiest races to bet in imo.  Its a big risk taking a short price assuming Long Run will need the extra 2 furlongs and will improve his jumping, and its risky taking a fairly short price on Kauto from a stats point of view.  You can dutch the two, but again, that'll be even shorter.

I also think it will be tricky backing in the w/out the 2 market.  Some will ride for the win, some (imo) will ride to try and get placed, and we don't know which ones will do which.  Gold Cups have a tendency for an unfancied one to go past beaten horses by the final fence, and imo its a lottery for who gets third.

Watching brief for me only, whilst screaming Kauto on.

Richard Johnson hit the deck with another Hobbs star today .. Colour Squadron.

With the news on Kauto and the questionable jumping of Long Run this Gold Cup is up for grabs.

An improving King George third will never get a better chance than this now. They nearly ducked the Arkle, lets hope they see the opportunity here this Gold Cup is up for grabs and on a going day Captain Chris has the engine and stays imo.

agreed eric although must admit pocket talking as on th captain at decent odds each way  big time, i said  that this gold cup was not cut and dried even before the kauto news and with the doubts about the fav and possible bounce factor regarding burton port its still there for the taking . the doors have been thrown  opened wide imo .

that would be cos he has shown them he dont stay

hobbs has said it is the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, nothing else.

he just outstayed Somersby who is a complete non stayer at 3m,and was at a guess about 20l behind the front 2.

hes a non stayer,who was bl00dy awful lto at the course,and pulled up.
good luck!!

Seem to remember you were a non believer for the Arkle as well. Good luck to you also

Let us just say there must have been a hell of a lot of non stayers in the King George if an under-prepared Captain Chris trying anything like a staying trip for the first time came 3rd. Hobbs clearly stated they knew they needed some more time with him. There is no doubt to me the horse who powered past non stayer Finians Rainbow up the hill last year can do the same over this longer trip on the ground that transforms him in a year where the 2 Gold Cup favourites look vulnerable. He is the one with the engine to take advantage with a good round like last year. He is schooling well at home, you cant pass a chance like this up even Medermit's connections fancy it.

am on nrnb so not a disaster if he dos not go !

Sounds like he might go Ryanair if anything from Hobbs own lips Eric.  I'd probably back him in that if he turned up, left him alone last time after backing him in the King George as he clearly didn't get home there.  I'm still a fan of the horse after taking a nice price in the Arkle but the CGC seems a bad idea with such a doubtful stayer when there is an obvious alternative race.  Think he is going to miss both mind you so we are probably wasting our time even discussing it.

You can write off the Argento .. he has never done that before. He always jumps to the right but has performed really well at Cheltenham in the past putting up his best performances there. It is being positive at his fences with a clear view of them and the spring ground that brings out the best in him.

He will stay alright and the way the 2 market leaders are going I'd take him over the likes of Medermit and Quel Esprit in the pack behind the market leaders. Grand Crus also wont like this race so early in his career. Captain Chris was fav for the Argento if he performs as he has and is spot on with the ground making a big big difference to him they hav to give it a go. If we see Quel Esprit in 1st spot in the history books in a few weeks time they will wonder what they had to lose and why they didnt go for it.

Think the ground this year will add the turbo over the trip provided the jumping goes as well as it has prior to the Argento there.

its all complete guesswork on your part Eric to say he will stay alright,hes never before when tried at 3m,now he has to go an extra 2f on a track hes just run appalling at,or should i say jumped appalling!!

The trainer has told you he was under-prepared for that so you cannot judge that as being his true form at a trip. Personally that told me he would stay as I believed connections re his prep and could see the improvement to come on spring Festival ground he loves and which he has definitely improved hand over fist upon in the past. There is a case to be made for saving him for a spring campaign as this time of year sees him turn around form with horses previously beating him as before the Arkle, this fooled a lot of people last year.

In a year where an upset now seems most likely he has to take his chance if well, against a favourite Long Run who spends, not just a visit like Captain Chris post Argento which has helped reading comments but nearly all of his time at Yogi Breisner's. Kauto Star will be declining, it could be this is what connections are seeing at his age rather than the effects of a fall though it wont have helped. Of all recent years this is the most likely for an upset and Captain Chris could be that outsider who puts a great round in as he did last year. We also know the big advantage having past Festival winners on your side in subsequent Festivals.

I would agree with the comments on here about backing in-running. I have watched the King George video a number of times and don't believe Captain Chris is gaining on the other two. However if Long run were to fall and / or Kauto was a no-runner then he would come into the reckoning assuming his own jumping has been put right. Synchronised for me can't go in the ground and some of the other runners are a way from top class. CC at least has the potential to be a 175 horse.

Still so many if's, but's and maybe's that you can't overly confident. For me an in-running play or nothing.

Looks like Finians needs a lead rather than being the sitting the duck like he was last year in the Arkle for CC.

Jumped a lot better yesterday but still away to his right Still think he needs to go righthanded to be seen
at his best.Must be the green light for Punchestown