yeah fair do s stront and buddi just think this horse has potential and to me he looks a bit of value ! but one mans poison is another mans wine, good luck and we will all be discussing where we went wrong or right after the gold cup.lets hope they all get back safely win or lose !

just a thought and go easy on me here ,  what if dicky put capt chris right on the inside ,would that help the horse and stop him jumping markedley to his right or would he cause mayhem with the other runners.

denman85 - why would I want to be taking on the top 2?  Because I have been playing this game for over 3 decades and doing rather well at it, and that is how I do it.  I believe LR is overrated.  Simple as that.  And, here is an admission, I have never backed Kauto Star in any race he has run in, ever.  I am not going to start now he is 12yo and at least 10lbs below his peak.  You may think it is folly never to have backed KS but I have got him beat a couple of times and have most certainly made a profit overall opposing him, including  by far and away the biggest win of my life!

TLU- I think he was fairly short by now because he was Pricewised, but you're right from the price point of view. Midnight Chase maybe has a similar course profile, Captain Chris was a Festival G1 winner last season, only Weird Al has got anywhere near the big 2 so far this season. There's nothing this year with the overall package Imperial Commander had (though of course I am retro-fitting the data to Imperial Commander after the event).

He was 3rd favourite though iirc? Quite a few are going to shorten as running plans become clear even if nothing happens on Friday to blow the market apart. If What a Friend stuffs Long Run we've all got some thinking to do

Anything like that Thieves. That's why we watch it, bet on it, love it

stront what if medermit stuffs the lot of em ,long run  included on friday ,king would surely be tempted to go gold cup route .and then capt chrises form with medermit would not look too bad .backed medemit e.way  gold cup big prices to small stakes just in case .

Some reliable looking person on AP forum said that chocolate thornperson said that medermit is missing newbury for ascot

So the progressive young chaser has to be the the even more progressive, even younger The Giant Bolster?

yes i saw that thieves but if the progresive young hurdler medemit were to route the field going away impressivly with long run running his race  then a rethink by king and connections then the gold cup would be hard to resist ,what would they have to be afraid of ! pure conjecture of course but not impossible .

Some good discussion on here lads,i fear theres some straw clutching going on,but interesting reading still.
WAF coming out and beating Long Run i just cannot for the life of me see,wheres he getting all that improvement from?
Medermit is young and is an improver this season but nothing like 3m2f in his form,1/2 a mile further than his best forms at,cannot see that either,and it looks like they are seeing sense and going to Ascot anyway.
Like yer style lads,and you may come up with something,hope yer do for the race needs it,but i will stick to the 2 horse race,and betting without the favs.

Backed Captain Chris at 33s e/w before King George has no chance off turning form round,given his last debacle would be surprised if he showed in Gold Cup imo hope he does just to maybe get a run as spring horse on goodish ground.
But jumping is major issue!

Foyles forgotten last run, King George wasnt too bad but jumping at home and on course are completely different.
How many times has Long Run been to Yogi many times, and still cant jump very well imo.
Maybe Friday may see some improvement as no Kauto, should win cant wait as going Newbury looking a decent card.
Shame Cue Card not runnibg against Sacre though. looking forward most to the novice hurdle if all show.

of course Stront,and maybe some horse will challenge the front 2,and if it does its sure to be a good price - just never know in this game.

What do ppl think about Burton Port's chances? Seems to have gone under the radar a little & cld put in a decent run?

It was a joke you pill-ock.  Is 85 your IQ by the way?

I rate LR a normal gold cup winner EO, no more no less.  If he repeats his run he has a chance of winning but I am not as convinced as others than stamina is as strong a point as it seems at first look.  The ground was unbelievably fast in last year's gold cup and I think rather than staying on stoutly he simply ran faster than a field of horses that were feeling their ages and/or the ground.

Although he is rejuvenated and running to 175, I don't believe KS will be able to reproduce 175 at Cheltenham.  He is better at Kempton/Haydock and is unlikely to reproduce that level this year.

The chasers that have ratings that put them within reach of 175 all have big question marks and it remains to be seen if any of them can do it, but I'm working on the theory that if I can find the right progressive profiles there is a 175 horse in there somewhere.

Medermit is already mid 160s and might be better over further but looks like he goes for the Ryanair. 

The Giant Bolster put up a 165 performance when winning at Cheltenham.  If he stays further he is seriously going to push 170 at least.  If he doesn't stay then high 160s is probably his limit, time will tell us.

Burton Point got an RPR of 170 in last season's Hennessy.  I don't rate that race so highly but I might be wrong, it appeared Denman was below his best based on the clock and Diamond Harry might be better than I think or even just better on a flat track!  If he is truly over the injury, BP could push on.

Quel Esprit, I was writing off after Sunday but I've been told his sectional times were very good and he turned the race into a real test of stamina.  I thought the proximity of Treacle was a big negative, but he is a stout stayer and was running on through horses that QE had burned off so it might be wrong to write the race off so quickly.  QE has never been beaten when completing.  Problem I have now is, either the run was nothing special and he isn't good enough OR it was an outstanding performance and will be difficult to reproduce so quickly at Cheltenham. 

Midnight Chase might be another Cool Ground but I just don't see it, don't think he is good enough and he is very exposed.  Weird Al is a decent horse but surely not good enough.  I have him at 165 and he is the benchmark for KS's 175s this season.  I think that is as good as he is going to get.

Thieves, I know you think on figures LR and Kauto are 175ish horses now. Do you think the OR's of some of the others (Midnight, Weird Al etc) are about right or are they also inflated? It stikes me that what's important is not the absolute value of the various ratings but the gap between the top 2 and the others.

Denman, KS WAS in the 180s, so was Denman 2 between 4 and 2 seasons ago, so was IC 2 years ago. It is my belief that the official handicapper and RPRs are wrong for the Gold Cup last year and as a result for the King George this year.  LR isn't as good as those 3 and if you actually used your eyes instead of blindly following the hype you would perhaps see that.  The alternate theory that LR has regressed this season I don't buy.  My theory that he just isn't that good and has taken advantage of regression in the top chasers simply makes more sense and I will stick to it until evidence proves differently.

Stront, it isn't the same argument.  I agree there has been ratings inflation overall but I believe there have been 2 specific mistakes made by the main handicappers, one in overrating Denman at age 11 overrating LR's Gold Cup, and the second, as a consequence of that now giving an inflated rating to Kauto Star by rating him through Long Run's incorrect rating.  My ratings fit better with the beaten horses in the Gold Cup and make sense in this season's KG too as the beaten horses didn't stay and/or were out of form.  I certainly don't believe Captain Chris ran to his best, he ran horribly and a rating of 157 makes total sense given the clear problems we have witnessed with the horse since.  So, to conclude, there is only a knock on to those horses that are overrated form the races effected (the betfair Chase too, to a lesser extent) - in particular What A Friend, Weird Al

TLU, totally agree that last years gold cup can not be trusted for ratings (if thats what you meant) and that long run is being too highly rated on a race that fell into his hands. I'm not sure about denman being overrated on that performance though - the ground was totally out of his comfort zone and I think he was flat out most of the way. Im no good at rating races but given a true run race on good to soft, i have denman emerging from the last gc as highest rated with long run and then kauto (but as i have said before, i think long run is only a 175s horse if you set him up and a 165s if you don't)