Cheltenham Festival
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OSCAR WHISKY
OSCAR WHISKY
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Replies: 148
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If we are going through the formbook this season .. BB has two beatings of Five Dream who was rated 137 prior.
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Giggsy, when he beat Poungach he was hard on the steel. It was rather impressive.
Sint - my only doubt is that I think BB is a (much) better horse than OW. As said above, I think OW will get the trip. |
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sin odds r an indication of the horses chance so r not irrelevant and must be taken into consideration
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I can see them jumping the last together. Oscar will have had Big Bucks at it for a while. Big Bucks jumps the last better and powers up the hill and sees off Oscar by a cozy length. They are about 6 or 7 ahead of the rest. Simple as.....
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They are not a reliable indicator though Shando.
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Post hoc ergo proter hoc.
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his odds mean that he was expected to win these races easily due to the lack of decent opposition.
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sin i agree but they r something u must consider when u bet if they thought ow had a real chance he would be shorter the stable whould be upbeat and word get out the price would come down
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Let me put it this way
At the start of an 8 runner horse race, any of the 8 runners has an equal chance of winning, the odds however, are a reflection of every ones opinion and nothing more! |
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the market is a very good indication of a horses chance sometimes i only look at the betting and not the form to inform me and i have done alright
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?????? seathestars i dont get that at all. so your saying that in an 8 runner race a 50/1 shot has the same chance of winning as a 1/2 shot?
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Exactly right shando, i do this too, as the more people think one particular horse will win, the more chance it has imo, of course this also means the price of that horse will be shorter. This, in essence, is exactly what betfair is all about!
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No, because the 1/2 shot of course would have more than a 50% chance of winning and the 50/1 shot a 2% lets say. C above comment about betfair. It is all a game of opinions!
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Why worry STS? The more people bet like that the happier I am !
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FWIW, the odds on here are a very accurate reflection of a horses chances of winning in general.
Studies have shown that horses priced at 2 win very close to 50% of the time, horses priced 20 win close to 5% of the time etc. |
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Then every horse doesn't have the same chance of winning.
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You are backing your judgement against the crowd. How can you do that if you just follow the crowd by blindly following the odds?
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For me much depends on how the race will be run. Last yr's renewal was unsatisfactory and would play to Oscar's evident speed strength. A searching test of stamina would take Oscar into the unknown but I am guessing he will stay. One thing you should not give BB is a target IMO. I can see the jockey waiting as long as possible.
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What do people think about whether Celestial Halo will be used to ensure a true test of stamina this year?
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He will be. He'll be able to keep up a strong pace for at least the 1st 2m.
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Good point by Sintonian on BB's form this year. We don't actually know yet if he is as good as previous seasons as he has been beating some very suspect horses classwise. Two wins over failed chaser Five Dream who was beaten off 131 in an Exeter handicap previously and a win over Dynaste who's form over regular hurdles prior to that was very ordinary and who is rated on a win in a fixed brush event. Strongest field he will have faced, shortest price he will have been. I will be taking him on.
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A very interesting possibility yes, BB can prevail in virtually any circumstances but his superiority IMO is more likely to emerge in a truly run race.
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OW may be the first horse he has faced for a long while that would give him a serious race over 2 miles, and may even be better over that trip. Don't think this should be overlooked. Up until now, Ruby has just had to make sure that he is within half a dozen lengths of the winner with half a mile to go and he's confident that he is on the fastest horse.
If they use their heads they will ensure a fast pace for BB and hope to stretch OW's stamina. If OW stays a truly run 3m then it will be pretty damn close between them. |
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Big Bucks can travel fast for a very long way (like a hurlding Denman). Can OW?
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If they are thinking genuinely about using CHalo,then that shows they are taking OW seriously,and so they should.
As i have said a few times now,its all about OW staying well enough to show his speed at the end of the race,that is the unknown and the intriguing bit. I can understand people saying why he may or may not stay,but none of us know and wont know till the day. Stront,exactly mate,we dont know.He travels great at a few furlongs less,at 2m and 2 m4,if he does it at 3,we are in for a great race. |
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Just think at Ascot, and also his recent Cheltenham run, he hit a flat spot with 3 furlongs to run and needed every yard of the 3 miles. Last season he never did that and we all thought he was over hitting his customary flat spot (which he showed in his first season over hurdles). I think the fact the owner will use Celestial Halo as a pacemaker and forego a run in the Champion Hurdle despite his impressive form over 2 miles this season suggests they know BB is becoming a stayer more and more as the seasons go on, where as before you'd have no worries dropping him back in trip.
I am not for one minute saying he will be beat, and he is a remarkable horse, one of a lifetime, but the market has finally caught up with how good he is now. The Bank of Bucks is offering no value this March.  |
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Buddelia. Frankel used a pacemaker in his last run at Ascot. It didn't mean that connections thought he'd get beat if they didn't. They just wanted to make sure they gave their horse the best chance of winning as possible. Same if Nicolls uses CH to make sure it's a strong pace. If he does then that will give BB a better chance of winning.
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yeh i see that giggsy,but its something they dont normally do.
By using CH it could be seen as a sign they are concerned about this opposition. |
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Different day different situation. Last year they were against Grand crus who would have loved a fast pace because he was very keen so it was to BB advantage that the pace was not overly strong. This year he's up against a horse who may not stay so a strong pace will put OW stamina under pressure.
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Taking on a horse that has been 3rd in a Champion Hurdle and won the race I still want to call the Templegate Hurdle is indeed a very different situation from running against a handicapper that has managed to win a weak grade 2 race beating Knockara Beau!
The person who was disgracefully abused for pointing out that this is by far the weakest "championship" race is quite right. All the efforts to upgrade this race to somehow be the equal of the CH, GC and CC have been predictably futile. It's still just the same as the old stayers hurdle, no more no less. |
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yes giggsy,we are agreeing mate.It all about the opposition.
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Thieves - won the race I still want to call the Templegate Hurdle
 We'll be discussing Night Nurse and Monksfield next! Happy memories! |
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LOL R Carver, I barely remember them as I was just a kid trying to pick winners from the paper but I grew up with it as the Templegate, same as the whitbread will always be the whitbread and the schweppes the schweppes
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It is true!
It takes an effort to not still refer to the Sun Alliance and the Sun Alliance as opposed to the RSA and Neptune - whenever people talked about the Sun Alliance in the old days, you seemed to instinctively know which race they were referring to without distinguishing between the hurdle and chase! (Q: Who do you fancy for the Sun Alliance?' A: 'Rolling Ball', 'nah I cannot have it on my mind, I fancy Esha Ness strongly' etc). |
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I actually prefer it like this, cos i always did get confused when people talked about a horse for the sun alliance i used to always have to ask, the chase or the hurdles especially if it was a relatively unknown novice for me. I suppose it all boils down to how good with names you are, personally for me i have to write them all down before i bet them, cos as sure as eggs are eggs, i will have forgotten their names before i got to the shop to bet them. By shop i mean cos 99% of my antepost bets are cash in shop, not online. Prefer it that way, then try and keep all the winning and placed slips till after the last race of the festival, when the shops have got relatively quiet then go and collect them all at the same time! Gives me a false sense of achievement for a few minutes picking up a nice big wad of cash even if it has been a losing antepost portfolio, and i aint had too many of them this last few years, Royal Ascot last year being only one in around 4 years of trying!
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The owner of BB was interviewed on ATR yesterday about this race. I couldn't hear what he said clearly but thought he said Celestial Halo WOULD NOT run in the world hurdle ?? Did I hear that wrong ..
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Nope, you heard correctly, CH does NOT run in the world hurdle!
Get the wheel barrow out for OW each way, lay off in place market on the day imo! Wont be a better bet all week! |
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Well,thinking about it they probably think CH deserves a crack at winning a race,given his form this season.
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Barry will have to play Oscar after last behind Bucks, if still within range otherwise no chance of winning should be a great tactical race,with Oscar bet to nothing at 5/1 e/w imo.
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Did Andy Stewart suggest where CH will run?
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