Cheltenham Festival
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OSCAR WHISKY
OSCAR WHISKY
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I meant he isn't by Cadoudal!
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oh,ok
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He's by Village Star who sired nothing else with any ability at all. (But it is remakrable Kauto has managed to stay so good having been on the go since he was 3).
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he ripped up all the trends and stats books and ate them.
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I have a stats based general rule that I don't usually consider horses above certain ages. French bred hurdles 8, chases 9. GB bred hurdles 9, chases 10 to 1st July then hurdles 8, chases 9. Irish bred hurdles 9, chases 10.
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One exception to any rule doesn't worry me budd. Missing a horse that wins at odds on but being put off dozens of losers is not a problem!
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It was nice to get him out the other day and Nicky can train him now for the World Hurdle," Geraghty told At The Races.
"He's a horse that does so well over two and a half it makes more sense to go up in trip rather than go back in trip. "Hopefully he can beat Big Buck's - you have to live in hope. Big Buck's is the best stayer we've had in my lifetime. "He's a very good horse and deserves all the respect in the world, but you have to be prepared to take him on. "Oscar Whisky was third in the Champion Hurdle last year and seems to stay well, although he hasn't run over three miles yet. "He's a high-class horse and I'd be hoping he can stay that trip and lower his colours." Thats what i like to hear. |
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Very sensible comments from BG there Budd. You can't say fairer than that really - optimistic but realistic.
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yep,
He knows the task ahead and whats required to achieve that |
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Fair point regarding the French bred Cadoudal stats, I will consider Bucksy innocent until proven guilty tho
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BB's three WorldHurdle wins have been at 6/1, Evens and Evens. This year he will be a 1/2 shot as the market has finally caught up with how good he is. This is the time to take him on.
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so u'r plan is to take him on when he's MORE of a cert? good luck.
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If OW, Thousand Stars and Mikael D'Haguenet all take part then I think it'll be BB's toughest test so far. Thousand Stars would have beaten OW in another few strides at Aintree last year, and I think he's still an underrated horse. Now that HF has proved his wellbeing, surely they'll let him take his chance in the WH, where I'd have him as a more likely winner than OW.
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I thought Bucksy 10/11 last year
 went on cheltenham .co.uk says he 4/6 now I am more confused  6/1 5/6 and 4/6 it says any advance on this as i am not having it...? |
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10/11 last yr according to RP.
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Indeed strontium. Calling themselves cheltenham.co.uk and can't get it right
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yep 10/11 last year. 4/6 at Aintree.
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The World hurdle for me is usually the weakest of the championship races , basically because any horse
with ability to stay 3m hurdles is highly likely to be running in 3m chases. So the race is left with horses that are either in their first year out of novice company(these tend to run in the race for 1 year before going chasing, see Punchestowns, Grand crus ,time for rupert) , failed chasers (big Bucks) or horses that are obviously a bit on the thin or small side for chasing (baracouda). It's interesting to note that when Punchestowns and TFR went chasing they were highly thought of but have proved to be overated ,some of the overating coming from their 2nd's to Big Bucks in the world hurdle. Big bucks is running in these 3m hurdles by default, if he'd jumped fences better he would have continued chasing. Others are possibly going to run in it also by default, Oscar whisky( due to henderson having other topend 2m hurdlers and the prersence of HF) and 1,000 stars ( trainer has HF).These top end 2m hurdlers are a rare occurence in the race. All in all this could lead to one of the most competitive world hurdles there has been for a number of years. |
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The last top quality 2m hurdler to run in it won the race was 3 time winner Inglis Drever who burst the Barracouda bubble having
previously won the 2m Kingwell hurdle at wincanton. With Hurricane fly it's pretty easy to see that he's a significantly better horse than anything else at 2m but with Big Bucks you cannot say that at 3m, Oscar whisky and 1,000 stars are a lot better quality horses than the ones he's faced over hurdlers and both are unexposed over 3m and bring in totally different form lines. If the ground rides very much on the soft side I'd expect BB to win but if it dries out to near good as the week progress's then Oscar whisky could burst the Big Bucks bubble. |
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tinkler be best if u keep ur stupid opinions to ur selve do us all a favour!
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giggsy3444 Date Joined: 17 Aug 05
Add contact | Send message When: 12 Feb 12 16:30 Joined: Date Joined: 17 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: giggsy3444's blog so u'r plan is to take him on when he's MORE of a cert? good luck. Er no. I am saying if you have not backd him previously at better prices then why back him now ? Also, the short the price no way means the stronger chance of winning. These odds are implied by everyone else and like I said, the market has finally caught with how good this horse is. |
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Even money was widely available on day of race last year.
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I am in no doubt and under no illusion that BB will be available at a bigger price on the morning of the 15th March as to that he is now currently trading at antepost! This is almost set in stone if OW and TS run, poss if OW runs, almost defo is both go! He has been every year he has run in it!
I agree also with tinkler, me thinks most people are under the illusion BB is unbeatable, of course he is beatable, he is not a machine and he will lose one day! I am (as stated on here and other threads) well and truly in the OW e/way camp! But fully expect BB to win, but maybe, just maybe OW would have the class to scare him, and then who knows, but what is there in the field, if he stays that would be good enough to keep OW out of the frame? 5/4 a place, is a cracking bet! |
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as i said on a previous thread connections will do all they can to make sure BB wins. celestial halo will be used as a pacemaker and he will keep up the gallop for at least the first 2m. then dynaste etc will take over. OW will have 2 stay every inch of 3m and then some to have even a slight chance of beating BB. when the others are under pressure BB is only getting going. he put 7 lengths between himself and dynaste from the last to the line the last time and was very strong at the line.
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ow wont even be placed will be out stayed by a few
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ow wont even be placed will be out stayed by a few
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clueless.
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seathestars- hows OW a great e.w bet? i take it ur completly guessing he'll get 3 mile as hes never ran over further 2m4 1/2f, so its guess e.w bet at best?
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i agree. the pressure will be on early. if OW doesnt stay then its going to be a long way home.
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sintonian if ow trys to beat bb he will use to much energy up and will be passed by a few if ow goes for second he may get it
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sint has it spot on, use are all clueless!!!
OW is a great bet because on the day he will be the dirtiest filthiest e/way cert there is all of that week! Get on at the 5/1 now imo, cos he wont be bigger than 7/2 ish on the day, with BB trading around the 8/11 mark that makes TS (if he runs) about an 11/2 chance! On a book of that nature, OW will not be bigger than 1.5 to place in the place market on betfair, thus allowing those who want to to lay off their entire stake in the place market thus assuring a bet to nothing! Profit if he is placed, stake back if he dont stay and is unplaced, jackpot if he wins! I am pretty sure i said this same thing on this thread a page or two back! Mark my words, the above will likely happen! |
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The problem is, everyone is assuming OW wont get the trip just because he has not tried. I dont get that at all.
He is 3/3 over 21f around Cheltenham. Why would anyone be so confident of the extra 3 furlongs being his undoing ? |
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Have to agree with that point also sint! Which is why if i do lay off in the place market, it will only be approx half my stake.
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There are a few real doubts about OW but they are factored into his price. For me, having seen him over 2 1/2 miles at Chelts it's hard to believe he won't get the WH trip.
tinkler, I think you seriously underestimate Big Buck's. He is well ahead of anything he has faced over 3m hurdles. People often describe him as gthe best staying hurdler there has ever been and that could well be true. Until recently he never won his races by much whoever her faced so we have no real quantitative measure of how good he is. Oscar Whisky and 1000 Stars might be better than anything BB has faced so far, they might not. We hear that every year and it's what then races are for. Personally I think BB is the best horse in training and he is wonderfully tactically versitile. |
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this is what makes horse racing great so many diff views let the horses do the talking at chelts ow 5th bad luck bb all the way
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I remember when Jamie Spencer rode Delegator to finish 2nd to the mighty Sea The Stars in the 2K Guineas. Afterwards, when John Oxx had said the Derby was STS next race, Spencer said STS showed so much speed that day that he thought STS could not win the Derby.
What other doubts do you have Stront other than the trip ? |
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what did he beat in those races. if memory serves me right the horses that were 2nd in those races were cape tribulation (failed chaser and OW was heavy odds on), get me out of here (who didnt stay OW again heavy odds on) and pungotch (under pressure a long way out again OW way odds on). dont think any of those races put pressure on his stamina to even atay 2.5m never mind 3m at a strong pace.
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Why do you make relation to his odds. Black Caviar has been hacking up at 1/25. Does this mean she is no good ? Odds are irrelevant.
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* odds are irrelevant to a horses performance.
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