Cheltenham Festival
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10 Feb 12
23:05
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
The RSA Chase on paper this year looks a good renewal. This is largely on the basis that we have a good crop of hurdlers who have been sent over the larger obstacles. However, looking at recent past renewals, hurdling success hasn't always been translated into the success many people think it should bring.
The race has a history of being won by traditional staying chasers rather than those who were classy over hurdles. In the last two seasons we have had previous season's World Hurdle runner up go off a short price favourite and get beaten (Time for Rupert and Punchestowns). We are again faced with a similar situation this year, in the form of Grand Crus.
In fact 8 of the last 11 winners had recorded an RPR of no higher than 135 in their previous season hurdling. With the top of the market the way it is and this being the case, I still think there is some serious value around.
Grand Crus - 3/1f
The obvious first problem with him is that he may not run. When last quoted the owner said he was "70:30" to miss the race. Although I think he's more likely than that to run (I'd have it 50:50) the price offers no value as a consequence.
If he does run there is a question mark is him being able to show his best at the trip. He is such a strong going sort that there is a big question mark on him being able to produce his best in what is typically a stamina sapping test. People were even calling for him to run in the Arkle after his first start this season.
Many people are keen on him because he finished close to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. However, playing Devil's Advocate you could say he only finished 3l in front of Cross Kennon that day. At Aintree off a stronger pace Big Bucks showed his true superiority and Grand Crus only finished 7l in front of the 147 rated Won in the Dark. Also as I have previously mentioned hurdles form doesn't translate to RSA glory.
I also would not have him such a short price on chasing form. First time out his main danger fell and then he was receiving weight from Champion Court, and the form has worked out poorly of his second run. Last time to be fair to him, he was impressive when winning the Feltham but he noticeably didn't put any distance between him and his challengers in the home straight. The Feltham is a totally different test to the RSA, and this is shown by the fact that all 17 Feltham winners have been beaten in the RSA.
Bobs Worth - 5/1
Have nothing against the horse and think he is as likely winner as anything in the field. However, his price of 5/1 is not that generous at the moment and I would prefer to see if the Wind Op he's had since his last run has the desired effect. Also although it is harsh to hold it against him yet, he's still only had two chase starts.
The record of horses with two or less chase starts in the RSA is appaling in recent seasons. In the past 5 years 11 horses have run who have had two or less chase starts recording figures of 5FP5P6PP2P0. Looking at just the "fancied" runners (12/1 or below) they still produce figures of 5P5P6PP0. These horses are no mugs either: Time For Rupert, Aiteen ThirtyThree, Punchestowns, Diamond Harry, What A Friend, Killyglen, Starzaan and Dom D'Orgeval.
He is hopefully going to run at Ascot next week, but with the weather the way it is at the moment you can't be sure, so it's just a point to keep a note of if he can't get a prep in.
First Lieutenant - 9/1
A prime example of a horse being priced up on hurdles form. He has been very disappointing over fences and hasn't looked a complete natural. He's started a short priced favourite on all five starts but only has two narrow unimpressive victories to his name. Even Davy Russell must be losing patience with him having stuck with him over less fancied stable mates the last twice, only to see him been beaten by them easily. He had his ground last time but was brushed aside easily, and only just finished in front of a horse who is 50/1 for this.
People use the fact he won at Cheltenham last season as a reason to follow him, but on his last start before that he'd won a Grade 1 on ground he would have hated. Over fences, on ground he would have loved he couldn't even get close to matching that level of form. He also has to break the stat that the last 48 winners had all run in the calendar year of their win!
Join Together - 10/1
To put it simply, I don't think he's good enough and I don't think Mr Nicholls thinks he is either. He hasn't committed him to the race all season and has said from the outset he saw him as a 4 miler contender. I wasn't impressed with him in November and although better last time, I'd be surprised if he could win a RSA. Nicholls also stated last time that he thinks he's much better suited to the New Course (RSA run on Old). It must also be remembered he was all out at sea in the Albert Bartlett (fancied - 8/1) last season when faced with a big field/quick ground.
Silviniaco Conti - 12/1
Another runner who isn't 100% likely to turn up, so as an ante post selection he makes no appeal whatsoever. Paul Nicholls has always said Aintree is the main aim and it's hard to see him being suited by a 3 mile slog round Cheltenham as he would be the test that Aintree will produce. The big stat against him is that he's a 6 year old and only two have won since 1978.
Selection: 1pt E/W Lambro 25/1 (General)
Having gone through the race in detail, at the prices this is a straight forward selection. A winner of a good bumper over 20f (RPR 125) he took to hurdles very well last season. First time out he was beaten a short head, but it was a race he should have definitely won. He was given a very poor ride by Townend and in their summary Racing Post said:
"Runner-up Lambro somehow failed to win and all the blame has to fall on the shoulders of Paul Townend. Held up in mid-division, he made up his ground stylishly enough and was in a good position before the second-last, but his rider completely overdid the confidence bit expecting his mount to just pick up and go past whenever he wanted instead of going about his business earlier. He didn´t even really produce his stick until the last 50 yards. Townend has earned plenty of plaudits over the last couple of seasons and rightly so, but this was a poor performance by his standards."
Stepped up to three miles next time he won with ease before taking a Grade 2 on his next start. The form of the Grade 2 has worked out well, with Last Installment, Flemenstar and Gift of Dgab all behind him. The drop down to 2m4f wasn't thought to suit him that day either and Willie Mullins said after the win "we came here more in hope than confidence because he was dropping down in distance". He then disappointed at Punchestown 8 days later, but it is likely the run came too soon.
This season he has taken to fences well on won impressively first time out disposing of Shinrock Paddy (runner up in Grade 1 since) with consumate ease since. After that win over 19f his trainer commented "I'm a little surprised. I thought the trip would be too short but his jumping was so good. We'll step him up in trip".
Surprisingly he was dropped back to 16f last time and gave Flemenstar a fright only going down by 3.5l. Flemenstar won a Grade 1 by 19l next time out and that form is red hot. Also both his runs this season have been on very soft ground and he has always promised to be suited by better ground. The fact he can run a Grade 1 winner so close on ground that suits and over a totally inappropiate trip shows what an engine he has.
He has three entries at Cheltenham (2.5,3,4m) and although it doesn't pay to second guess Wille Mullins, I think he'll end up in the RSA. Firstly, Willie Mullins main other hope is Sir Des Champs, but with Gigginstown having more fancied options it is likely he will go for the Jewson, leaving the path clear for Lambro to go this route. Also Mullins usually uses the Dr P.J Moriarty (entered overnight) as his prep for his RSA candidates. His last 5 runners in the event have been MDH, Quel Espirit, Citizen Vic, Cousin Vinny and Cooldine. Cousin Vinny went back over hurdles for the festival (World Hurdle - 3 miles still!) and the other 4 all ran in the RSA. Also MDH, Citizen Vic and Cooldine had all run over 17f or shorter that season, so the fact Lambro has should not be seen as a negative.
It must also be noted Willie Mullins has a very good record in the RSA with 3 wins.
I also like Last Installment (who he runs against on Sunday) but at 3 x the price Lambro is the obvious bet of the pair. 25/1 could look very big come this time Sunday.
The race has a history of being won by traditional staying chasers rather than those who were classy over hurdles. In the last two seasons we have had previous season's World Hurdle runner up go off a short price favourite and get beaten (Time for Rupert and Punchestowns). We are again faced with a similar situation this year, in the form of Grand Crus.
In fact 8 of the last 11 winners had recorded an RPR of no higher than 135 in their previous season hurdling. With the top of the market the way it is and this being the case, I still think there is some serious value around.
Grand Crus - 3/1f
The obvious first problem with him is that he may not run. When last quoted the owner said he was "70:30" to miss the race. Although I think he's more likely than that to run (I'd have it 50:50) the price offers no value as a consequence.
If he does run there is a question mark is him being able to show his best at the trip. He is such a strong going sort that there is a big question mark on him being able to produce his best in what is typically a stamina sapping test. People were even calling for him to run in the Arkle after his first start this season.
Many people are keen on him because he finished close to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. However, playing Devil's Advocate you could say he only finished 3l in front of Cross Kennon that day. At Aintree off a stronger pace Big Bucks showed his true superiority and Grand Crus only finished 7l in front of the 147 rated Won in the Dark. Also as I have previously mentioned hurdles form doesn't translate to RSA glory.
I also would not have him such a short price on chasing form. First time out his main danger fell and then he was receiving weight from Champion Court, and the form has worked out poorly of his second run. Last time to be fair to him, he was impressive when winning the Feltham but he noticeably didn't put any distance between him and his challengers in the home straight. The Feltham is a totally different test to the RSA, and this is shown by the fact that all 17 Feltham winners have been beaten in the RSA.
Bobs Worth - 5/1
Have nothing against the horse and think he is as likely winner as anything in the field. However, his price of 5/1 is not that generous at the moment and I would prefer to see if the Wind Op he's had since his last run has the desired effect. Also although it is harsh to hold it against him yet, he's still only had two chase starts.
The record of horses with two or less chase starts in the RSA is appaling in recent seasons. In the past 5 years 11 horses have run who have had two or less chase starts recording figures of 5FP5P6PP2P0. Looking at just the "fancied" runners (12/1 or below) they still produce figures of 5P5P6PP0. These horses are no mugs either: Time For Rupert, Aiteen ThirtyThree, Punchestowns, Diamond Harry, What A Friend, Killyglen, Starzaan and Dom D'Orgeval.
He is hopefully going to run at Ascot next week, but with the weather the way it is at the moment you can't be sure, so it's just a point to keep a note of if he can't get a prep in.
First Lieutenant - 9/1
A prime example of a horse being priced up on hurdles form. He has been very disappointing over fences and hasn't looked a complete natural. He's started a short priced favourite on all five starts but only has two narrow unimpressive victories to his name. Even Davy Russell must be losing patience with him having stuck with him over less fancied stable mates the last twice, only to see him been beaten by them easily. He had his ground last time but was brushed aside easily, and only just finished in front of a horse who is 50/1 for this.
People use the fact he won at Cheltenham last season as a reason to follow him, but on his last start before that he'd won a Grade 1 on ground he would have hated. Over fences, on ground he would have loved he couldn't even get close to matching that level of form. He also has to break the stat that the last 48 winners had all run in the calendar year of their win!
Join Together - 10/1
To put it simply, I don't think he's good enough and I don't think Mr Nicholls thinks he is either. He hasn't committed him to the race all season and has said from the outset he saw him as a 4 miler contender. I wasn't impressed with him in November and although better last time, I'd be surprised if he could win a RSA. Nicholls also stated last time that he thinks he's much better suited to the New Course (RSA run on Old). It must also be remembered he was all out at sea in the Albert Bartlett (fancied - 8/1) last season when faced with a big field/quick ground.
Silviniaco Conti - 12/1
Another runner who isn't 100% likely to turn up, so as an ante post selection he makes no appeal whatsoever. Paul Nicholls has always said Aintree is the main aim and it's hard to see him being suited by a 3 mile slog round Cheltenham as he would be the test that Aintree will produce. The big stat against him is that he's a 6 year old and only two have won since 1978.
Selection: 1pt E/W Lambro 25/1 (General)
Having gone through the race in detail, at the prices this is a straight forward selection. A winner of a good bumper over 20f (RPR 125) he took to hurdles very well last season. First time out he was beaten a short head, but it was a race he should have definitely won. He was given a very poor ride by Townend and in their summary Racing Post said:
"Runner-up Lambro somehow failed to win and all the blame has to fall on the shoulders of Paul Townend. Held up in mid-division, he made up his ground stylishly enough and was in a good position before the second-last, but his rider completely overdid the confidence bit expecting his mount to just pick up and go past whenever he wanted instead of going about his business earlier. He didn´t even really produce his stick until the last 50 yards. Townend has earned plenty of plaudits over the last couple of seasons and rightly so, but this was a poor performance by his standards."
Stepped up to three miles next time he won with ease before taking a Grade 2 on his next start. The form of the Grade 2 has worked out well, with Last Installment, Flemenstar and Gift of Dgab all behind him. The drop down to 2m4f wasn't thought to suit him that day either and Willie Mullins said after the win "we came here more in hope than confidence because he was dropping down in distance". He then disappointed at Punchestown 8 days later, but it is likely the run came too soon.
This season he has taken to fences well on won impressively first time out disposing of Shinrock Paddy (runner up in Grade 1 since) with consumate ease since. After that win over 19f his trainer commented "I'm a little surprised. I thought the trip would be too short but his jumping was so good. We'll step him up in trip".
Surprisingly he was dropped back to 16f last time and gave Flemenstar a fright only going down by 3.5l. Flemenstar won a Grade 1 by 19l next time out and that form is red hot. Also both his runs this season have been on very soft ground and he has always promised to be suited by better ground. The fact he can run a Grade 1 winner so close on ground that suits and over a totally inappropiate trip shows what an engine he has.
He has three entries at Cheltenham (2.5,3,4m) and although it doesn't pay to second guess Wille Mullins, I think he'll end up in the RSA. Firstly, Willie Mullins main other hope is Sir Des Champs, but with Gigginstown having more fancied options it is likely he will go for the Jewson, leaving the path clear for Lambro to go this route. Also Mullins usually uses the Dr P.J Moriarty (entered overnight) as his prep for his RSA candidates. His last 5 runners in the event have been MDH, Quel Espirit, Citizen Vic, Cousin Vinny and Cooldine. Cousin Vinny went back over hurdles for the festival (World Hurdle - 3 miles still!) and the other 4 all ran in the RSA. Also MDH, Citizen Vic and Cooldine had all run over 17f or shorter that season, so the fact Lambro has should not be seen as a negative.
It must also be noted Willie Mullins has a very good record in the RSA with 3 wins.
I also like Last Installment (who he runs against on Sunday) but at 3 x the price Lambro is the obvious bet of the pair. 25/1 could look very big come this time Sunday.
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Nice write up EC.I peronally would not discount Join Together.I have a vague recollection of Nicholls saying he was his Gold Cup horse for next year(apologies if that is incorrect).The horse I would want to back is Sir Des Champs,but as you say,with doubts over his participation its impossible to second guess Mullins intentions,and from the market the 2 1/2 miler seems more likely.I could not have Bob's Worth on my mind.I seem to remember doubts last year about his size/scope for jumping fences,and to my eye this year has shown that to be the case.Fantastic horse that he is,it seems a major effort for him to clear the fences,and as such he is not on my radar.
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Think I have heard Paul Nicholls say that too I think, but I just get the impression that Nicholls thinks he's still a bit backwards. Personally I just rate both Lambro's hurdling and chasing form better than that of Join Together and don't understand how he can be 2.5x the price.
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If Last Instalment runs and jumps like he did last time, Lambro won't even see which way he went on Sunday.
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Lambro is totally underrated in the context of this race, been given a typical RSA preparation by Mullins, running over short distances so he learns how to jump at speed. I fully expect him to run in the race and is a big player.
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First Lieutenant has to be the worst value of all antepost markets surely? Even when he did win at Chelt, two of his main rivals blundered the last and Rock on Ruby's stamina came to an abrupt halt. He's done nothing over fences to justify single figures.
It's an annoying race for me with doubtful participants so will play nearer the time. |
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EC-Fantastic write up as usual and Lambro seems really good value as you say with FL halving in price over the past week or so.
I'm leaning towards Last Installment but will probably play him on the day of race as Davy R seems to be very loyal to FL despite Last Installment beating him readily lto. However now adding Lambro to my book. |
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Well, had another look at Lambro and he should improve as he steps up in trip and have had a bit on him as a saver. Still confused why the OP has missed the 3rd fav out from his otherwise excellent write up, other than saying he likes him! On that basis Lambro has to have some value in him for tomorrow. Tote and Ragfred have priced up the market including Bog Warrior who isn't intended to run. Bookies pricing w/o BW have him at 9/4, approx same as on here, while TS and Ragfred have him at 9/2, which will be 3.15/1 after rule 4 at 30%(BW 9/4).
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Good job on the write up and should start some interesting discussions. However, completely disagree with your view on join together. Reading your write up on him it would seem your reasons for disregarding his chances are (old) comments from his trainer. Nicholls has sounded fairly confident recently. His win in December was pretty impressive. Using champion court as (rough) yardstick (diff trips and improving novices make it difficult) and it's hard to say he's got a huge amount to find with grand crus. The way he won was impressive in December as he saw off all challengers one by one and jumped great. Kept finding more and more.
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Thieves - In the OP I was more going through reasons why I didn't fancy some of the main contenders, and to be honest there are no massive negatives about Last Installment apart from the price compared to Lambro (which I tried to mention in the conclusion).
David - I just think even at the beginning of the season you know if you have a Cheltenham horse and for Nicholls to say even after he won at the Paddy Power Meeting "I'm not thinking about the RSA Chase at the moment" just doesn't fill me with confidence at all, he reminds me a bit of 1833 last year. Also I personally don't rate his last win. The second, Mossley, isn't built for chasing, had been unimpressive first time out and also finished this race distressed, so something may have been amiss and there's a good chance he didn't run to form. Champion Court was bang there til three out when a shuddering error all but ruined his chance. |
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Having watched his last run again, think I was a bit extreme when talking about Champion Courts error three out... But it certainly didn't help his matter.At the end of the day it is all about price and I think Lambro has been given a typical RSA prep by his trainer, has arguably better hurdling and chasing form than Join Together yet is 2.5x the price. If he wins tomorrow and goes for the RSA, I'd be surprised if Ruby choose to ride Join Together over him.
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I don't think anyone with any sense was ever suggesting Grands Crus was Arkle material. He has always raced freely to the extent you would think something was wrong if he didn't. He had no problem staying three miles over hurdles and probably put up as good a challenge to Big Bucks as anything has during the unbeaten sequence. For whatever reason I don't think he ran to his best at Newbury. At Kempton do you not feel the fact he was not pulling away had something to do with him cantering to the front so early? As soon as he hit the front the race was shot to pieces and he was very impressive. I am not big on times but it is worth bearing in mind that he was quicker than the King George field. He may not stay but I don't see too much if any racecourse evidence to support the view. The biggest worry I have is Tom Scudamore being able to hold on to him and time the run. I certainly hope he goes Gold Cup as Midnight Chase should make sure there is an even gallop.
Biggest concern with Bobs Worth is his deliberate jumping - reminds me a little of Burton Port who had who threw away his chance with an horrendous round of jumping a couple of years ago. Silviniaco Conti's Gold Cup was the Feltham. He wants a flat, right handed track to show his best so no value whatsoever should he take his chance. I would hope that Lambro will go the National Hunt Chase route as I don't see him being good enough for an RSA. Milan's offspring so far have generally been short on quality. |
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Lambro you mention it all being about price which is correct. However, what you have to factor into lambros price is that
He hasn't yet tested himself at the top over fences He has still to prove he will be able to produce a top class performance on goodish ground over 3 miles at Cheltenham He is entered into 3 races at the festival which would suggest his participation I'n the rsa is uncertain These three things are unknowns which will have to lengthen his odds albeit for now. He could of course answer these three points by winning tomorrow , for which he is 5/2 to do. Back to join together I don't have access to the December race at the moment but from memory watching the race he seemed to be the type of horse who would love a head to head. I just got the impression when one went to take him on they didn't like it and couldn't get passed. Almost like denman I'n that respect. Mossley finishing distressed and champion court making an error just when taking him on would back that up. |
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I'll be interested to see the race tomorrow as I must admit I hadn't given much consideration to Lambro.
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i quiet like Join Together for the RSA,and he alongside First Lieutenant are my backup should my main fancy Last Instalment not turn up.
Think JT is the sort of horse that could really get some in behind struggling during the race,hes a sound jumper that stays really well,and should relish the RSA conditions. |
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Slightly worried by the apparent drift on join together. There is only £10 waiting to back him. Hope everythings ok.
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nice article, however your conclusion doesnt really fit the rest of your arguments for not backing the other horses... i was expecting u to go for last installment as i was reading down,, jumps, stays, not flashy. however glad u like lambro as i got some 80s
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Slightly worried Mossley is going for the 2m4f Scily Isles chase tomorrow.
Have backed him at 8's to be placed in the RSA, but he also has an entry in the Jewson. Hopefully this will be a prep as he relished the stamina test of the AB last year. |
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I hope so too WellC, but I'm sure you're right - 2 m 4 looks an inadequte trip. However, I like the angle of novices running below their optimum trip to teach them to jump at pace - it's something Mullins is a master of for example. Plus it looks like Bobs Worth is an intended runner in the Reynoldstown and NH doesn't likle running his novices against each other.
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I've backed him tbp for the RSA too. I would imagine that's the target but no point giving him too hard a race this close to the festival
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if id backed mossley id be more worried that he cant jump.
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some form just taken a knock at ascot
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Bobs Worth's jumping reminds me of Long Run.
He pings them when in his comfort zone, but when he is taken out of his comfort zone his jumping goes all over the place |
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stayer,further the better.
SC will be in jewson i imagine. |
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Invictus looks the most likely threat to Grands Crus imo.
your right Budd, Bobs Worth looks an out and out stayer, even though he had the speed to beat Rock on Ruby over hurdles. However, his jumping is a big concern for me; although I thought he jumped left handed today and that will suit him at Cheltenham. Can't have First Leuitenant as a 7/1 shot at all based on his form over fences. Last Instalment coming out is a massive blow to the race. I'd have Sir Des Champs ahead of First Leuitenant, but it's unclear where he'll run. 12/1 that is available for Invictus is not a bad ew bet for me. Hard to think Bobs Worth can reverse that form even though he was gaining, but I think Invictus had a lot more left in the tank. |
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* Lieutenant - had one eye on Massinis Maguire when typing that
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yeh,i dont like his jumping either.
I would put him back over hurdles. |
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If he stays chasing,they should look at the 4 miler maybe,might suit him better as re his jumping.
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Have to say thought bobs worth ran a cracking RSA trial for me...he jumped ok but just feel he is crying out for going back left handed, his last 2 runs, the tracks haven't played to his strengths and I think he could be an entirely different proposition back at cheltenham and for me he will turn the tables on invictus on 3lb better terms...looking to need the race to me and the ground (tacky) wouldn't of been his cup of tea and I thought geraghty gave him a very easy time of it with cheltenham in mind....
I think ok corals 7-1 on offer a nice ew play here, whether he is good enough to shake up grands crus I don't know but I like the fact he has prepped, where as a lot of the other runners haven't and Nicky hendersons comments after the race "He ran a fantastic race. If you´d have seen him three weeks ago you´d have thought he was finished for the season." After a breathing op and needing the race I will be very surprised if this lovely horse cannot at least make the places and if he can eye ball and get Grands Crus off the bridle I'm sure this warrior will find plenty...got to love him... Stats are sometimes to be used with a pinch of salt...but looking back, not one horse from 2000 (can't be asked to go further) onwards has won this race without a preparation race in january or febuary...make what you will of it but I think it is quite a big one when First Lieutenant, Grands Crus and join together all his main market rivals haven't...of course todays winner has but like I say I fancy Bobs Worth to be different gravy going back left handed...7-1 ew a pleasure...many thanks... |
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I agree with harry, I'll be surprised if Invictus can confirm form. The return to Cheltenham will suit Bob's who almost certainly wants to go left over fences. He looked badly in need of it today imo. Invictus was impressive but was very disappointing on his only visit to Cheltenham and is still to prove he acts on the course. To me he would of been primed today (King is in rude form as well) whereas the runner up's day is at Cheltenham in March. Despite this they came out about the same horse at the weights.
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Agree. Bobs will be better at Cheltenham and would expect him to reverse form with Invictus. Still not entirely certain Grands Crus will go for this, but I think First Lieutenant will improve for the demands of the race and will be the main challenger to GC should he run.
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I'm still struggling to work out Bobs Worth.
The best he has jumped was his opening chase over 2m4f against Cue Card when they were going faster. I just don't like the way his jumping goes to pieces when he's off the bridle, and that will certainly happen in the RSA. To me, Grands Crus looks a much more natural jumper than Bobs Worth. Invictus improved a lot for the extra distance today imo. I'm not convinced that Bobs Worth will be able to turn the form around, but there you go. FWIW, I've backed neither in the race, so that's an independent opinion |
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I think Grands Crus might be the hype horse of the Festival this year. He's a flashy grey and he's got a big rep, but his form keeps taking knock after knock. He's a weak favourite imo and horses like Join Together and perhaps some of the Irish, with little collateral form, are where I'm looking.
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I do think Grands Crus has some top notch novice form though. Whether he should be 6/4 for the RSA is another matter.
He was very impressive against Champion Court and at Kempton on Boxing Day. I think Bobs Worth's price is very poor tbh; and would want bigger than 5 and 6/1, which is his general price. He beat Cue Card getting a lot of weight, although short of his ideal distance. I don't think Tizzard covered himself in glory in that race, and maybe Bobs Worth was a slightly fortunate winner. Then there was Kempton where he didn't run a yard and jumped poor, and then today, where his jumping went poor when off the bridle. I think he jumps a hurdle much better than a fence, but its a game of opinions. Again, I haven't backed him, Invictus or Grands Crus (well I backed GC on here at 5.6 but layed it off last week). I thought Bobs Worth would go right to the top over fences (and he may still do); I backed Mossley for the RSA for small stakes because of his proximity to Bobs Worth in the Albert Bartlett, and I put Bobs Worth in my 10 to follow. He's just disappointed me a bit this season that's all |
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Well Chief I can sort of see where your coming from but think he will a different horse back left handed on a different track...then we can criticize I'd say...his jumping will have to improve to win though but thats possible given the preparation he has had this season...his attitude is second to none and he will improve plenty if good enough...
What do you guys make of the stat of horses prepping for this race??? Quite important I'd say, not that I'm really a stat man... |
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True Harry, I'm far from writing him off at this stage.
Maybe my hopes were too high going in to the start of the season, based on his hurdles runs (where he had the perfect blend of speed and stamina). You can't question his attitude; in all three races this year he has looked well beaten, but he battled back to beat Cue Card, he came from a mile back at Kempton and flew past Conti today. Win, lose or draw in the RSA you'll definitely get a run for your money. Good luck if you took the 7's with Coral - if he makes it he'll be shorter than that on the day. As for the stats, I suppose Grands Crus run was only 5 days outside of January, but like you, I don't really follow stats that much. |
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It's a stat that might be quite important, for novices especially, though iirc Sizing Europe turned a similar stat over either for the Arkle or QMCC.
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Sorry stront, what does iirc mean? I've noticed you've used it a bit recently.
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If I recall correctly.
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Yes stats are there to be turned over but its no coincidence in this race...on the sizing europe stat he had had plenty of experience early season the same can be said of first lieutenant I suppose...but I think the free going grands crus I would of been keen to have seen prepped if I were a backer...
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