Cheltenham Festival
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RSA Chase Preview
RSA Chase Preview
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 Cheers |
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No worries.
The stat is something likle the last 47 RSA winners have run in the same calendar year. That's the sort of stat judo would not ignore  |
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From the ATR stats guide to the RSA
Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences so that is as good as any combination of factors to home in on for starters. Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three strong negative patterns kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year. He also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience having had just two outings over fences beforehand whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles. Furthermore, no RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie. For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start. In addition, the Irish supplied last season’s runner-up and close-up fourth in addition to the winner. Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds with the British challenge headed by Paul Nicholls with two winners since 2006. If the Feltham Novices’ Chase winner, Grands Crus, heads here and goes on to win, then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed. Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings so take particular note of those but beware horses aged one year younger as this is a tough race and they have been found out on numerous occasions winning just twice since 1978. Star De Mohaison did win this race as a five-year-old but that was when they received a 10lbs weight-for-age allowance that has now been slashed to just 1lb so they can go too. Neither am I tempted by novices aged nine or over as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those and 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993. Summary Positives Seven-year-olds Contested novice hurdles last season Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase Negatives Finished outside the first two last time out Less than three chase starts Not run during the same calendar year Aged younger than seven and older than eight The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner |
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** Final paragraph should start:
Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving here off an incompletion is hardly ideal. |
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Bob's will be better suited by the track at Cheltenham surely, and will be running off levels, from the sounds of things will be fitter but IMO his jumping is like a 7lb penalty.
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Lots of stats negatives for Grands Crus - the no run this year, the Feltham (which I think is a red herring), the no more than one season over hurdles.
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Looking at those stats, Last Instalment would have fitted perfectly
Positives Seven-year-olds - YES Contested novice hurdles last season - YES Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins - YES Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase - YES Negatives Finished outside the first two last time out - NO Less than three chase starts - NO Not run during the same calendar year - NO Aged younger than seven and older than eight - NO The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner - NO Bl00dy shame he's out  |
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I don't like the form from today at all. Invictus may be better than the result suggests, certainly looked to have a lot left and jumped well. Bob's Worth hasn't seemed a natural chaser on his last two starts and Silvinaco let the form down badly, especially given Ascot suits the horse. Don't like the proximity of Alfie Spinner.
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Wicketd - what do you think that all means for/about Grands Crus?
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This race is so hard to get the winner of, Its a hype horses graveyard. I've had Weapons Amnesty and Boston's Angel the last two years. I think just picking the horse with the biggest heart and the biggest balls gets you a long way. It is so easy to see Grand Crus as another Long Run/Punchestowns/Time for Rupert. That doesnt mean he will be but of the two I'd still take Bob's Worth.
I've backed Bob's Worth to win at 5/1, and I'd have loved to see the horse romp home today, but there's a decent price about it for an each way poke now, and in conditions that will surely suit it much better it should be on the premises, and still plugging on when others have cried enough. |
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I follow the stats a lot for all races at Cheltenham. But I cannot for the life of me see Grand Crus not winning the RSA. The fact that even the trainer is very tempting for the Gold Cup should be enough neither mind and the way he won his races very easily. Also I like the fact that Pipe yard will have all there horses sweet for Cheltenham as always. But another note shame on Last Installment as he was my each way alternative. Roll on the festival................!!
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watching that yesterday and the Feltham their is no way i will be backing Bobsworth,he just dont jump well enough for me.
I appreciate he may be better left handed,but current price for that hope - no thanks. |
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I agree with that Budd and to me he just seems slow as well. Looks an out and out staying plodder.
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budd and stront do you not think the tracks have been against bobs worth his last 2 runs??
I just think his newbury run should be how you judge him...but agree his jumping has to improve... don't know why but just have a bad feeling for grands crus and he missed a prep race with just another 4 days just to go there fresh...just smells a tad I don't know why. |
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Harry, I think BW will be suited more by Cheltenham than by Ascot or Kempton yes. That might mean he wins the RSA - he surely has enough stamina. But he doesn't look a top 3 m chaser in the making to me because his jumping is sticky and he seems to get outpaced very easily before staying on. He looks the kind of horse that would stay for ever and might be one for Welsh/Irish/Scots Nationals (etc) off his current mark.
As for Grands Crus, the negatives just keep mounting for me. I could be totally wrong - he might be the best thing since sliced bread - or even since Sprinter Sacre - but so far I think he's all hype. |
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ran a few nice races for a hype horse mind....even going back to last season over hurdles.
whether he should be 7/4 im not sure but i think hes a worthy fav. i can see first leiutenant,invictus and if he runs call the police being interesting. |
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Tweedle - I accept he was a very good hurdler but hurdling is not steeplechasing. I've only been really impressed by one of his 3 chases to date which was his first. The Newbury run now looks poor and the Feltham form is clearly nothing special. Last season Time For Rupert was the second coming.
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Have to disagree stont I thought the kempton run was top draw from grands crus...they went very quick and the time was very fast to back up the form...nicholls horses are not running well and bobs worth was in desperate need of the yesterday...
I am with tweed think he is a worthy fav, whether he wins or not is another matter... very difficult race to fathom now as first lieutenant as much as i respect him is similar to bobs worth in regard to his fencing, it is not impressive... |
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Harry, you might be right. But to rate the Feltham form we have to say Silv C and Bobs Worth were at their best that day and a long way off yesterday. That could be the case, but not necessarily. In any case, I don't think beating Silvianco Conti by a fast diminishing 2 l is a great performance and I have some doubts that Grands Crus truly stays. That could all be wrong!
It's a real shame Last Instalment is out as he looked the best of the Irish. There are a few possibles - Join Together and now Invictus are interesting. It's possible the RSA won't be a great race this year, lacking stars if I'm right about Grands C. |
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Ye agree but still a lot of potential...
I would say grands crus though put more pace to the race after they had already gone quick...agree though he did look tired and if the pace is on which is likely he will have to stay every yard at cheltenham...I still think grands crus to be at his very best needs more cut in the ground... I don't normally bet 2 or more but may do here...could be a good in running race to play with bobs worth and first lieutenant needing to jump better to get in the mix...am totally against join together here don't know why just feel he beat a load of plodders first time then beat the hard to evaluate mossley next time and we haven't seen him since he is also an old vic progeny I don't particularly like... I see him more as a grand national type if the trainer doesn't muck his mark up to much as his his want...also think he will need proper cut in order for him to seen at his very best I maybe wrong of course...agree on the last instalment he was a fascinating runner... |
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Harry, I think Join Together's mark is already shot for big handicaps (157, unbelievably). I liked his Cheltenham run as he clearly did stay and handle the course very well but you're right his form (through Mossley) has also taken a knock and he's not been out for a while. There's also the suspicion that Nicholls didn't really rate the horse as an RSA type at the start of the season.
I didn't feel Grands Crus quickened away in the Feltham, but to be fair that's probably because they were going at such a good gallop already. |
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Yes lots of questions to answer think I'm going to play bobs worth ew and the same on first lieutenant...think they are both good enough to get in the money then just play in the run...will be laying grands crus short as he does everything on the snaffle and you can guarantee he will be cruising at the top of the hill...might change my mind of course...
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Actually need to think again with the 2 mentioned not being great jumpers I could double my losses...
ahh...annoying race because I like you, want to get grands crus... maybe don't bet...but I still have bobs worth already win only...maybe just play in the run now...yep thats the way to go... |
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Harry,
yes its possible hes better left handed,his runs thus far suggest that,but will that mean he jumps a lot better at Cheltenham?? at the odds im not prepared to pay to find out. Join together is the one im looking at to test this field,think he will try to stretch them and could potentially get a few at it,so to speak.He will be on my side along with FL,who i have backed ages ago,although i aint that confident about him as re his jumping,but he does finish well and is gutsy,just hope his jumping holds up. Grand Crus could literally be anything,but at the prices im willing to take him on,and like others i would be a tad concerned at him getting home as well as some of the opposition. |
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Yes good points and the jury is out on the jumping of bobs worth and first lieutenant...
pace - as always is going to be key and like you say join together does look the pace angle...I just wonder what his form is worth with mossley not looking a steeplechaser at all and his run before just looking decent handicap form...I am against him...first lieutenant is the imponderable here because we know he is decent but its just whether he can put a clear round in...I have to say he hasn't convinced me so far. |
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Apparantly Bobs Worth only started galloping again last week after his wind operation. That may explain the drift in the market yesterday and if it is true that was a massive run all things considered.
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Would question the argument that Invictus didnt act at Cheltenham , he was absolutely cruising at the top of the hill , then flat to the boards from two out ie having come down the hill . I assumed he wanted further , but as the trainer said , he had lost a shoe early on and finished sore . He too jumped a couple to the left at Ascot , my only worry with his very athletic jumping is that occassionally he jumps too big .
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Invictus - Big drifter on here today for whatever reason now trading at 16...
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i'm devastated Last Instalment is out as he was my banker for the festival (bar BB and Quevaga). Go completely with stats on RSA which led me to Bostons Angel last year and LS was the one for this year.
Wouldn't back Grand Crus with someone elses money - far too good a hurdler, too many seasons over hurdles and wont have run between 24-53 days of festival. Also, you are looking for a horse with maximum of 9-12 career runs |
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It looks to me like Bobs Worth is the stats horse for the RSA and Champion Court if that's where he goes.
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Agree the old trend says you want 9-12 career starts but recent winners had had
bostons 15 weapons 13 cooldine 16 just shows trends can be misleading if used by the book... I would certainly back grands crus with someone elses cash...very bold to say he can't win with the likely line up I'd say...although I also am keen to get him. |
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Bobs Worth falls down on hurdle RPR. Ideally no bigger than 135 and his was 153. However, out of the 10 stats, the hurlde stat is the only one that doesnt have an 80% accuracy factor. Lost book from last year but think it was something like 60%
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I'm not saying that GC can't win, that would be stupid, just saying that he isnt the pick on stats.
hmm, cant remember then if you exclude NHF races from calcualtion which based on that would actually take GC down to the required number of runs |
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Tory - that trend about the hurdles RPR is weakening - 3 of the last 5 didn't meet it iirc.
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Also wouldn't take that stat seriously either...that has also proven to be unreliable
denman 155 cooldine 150 weapons 154 all recent winners had run to this prior to winning an RSA hope this helps tory but would suggest doing a tad of homework yourself...otherwise you maybe mislead... |
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I did say that out of the 10 stats given in the book last year the hurdle stat was the only one below the 80% factor as a minimum.
Bobs Worth hits every single stat bar that one, and if all others are falling down on an 80% factor stat then he would of course score the highest |
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EC's Lambro does very well against the stats above. Only fails on 3rd vs top 2 last time out.
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More worrying is whether he's good enough after he got stuffed last week.
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Going on last year's he also falls down on being within 14lb of RPR top rated. GC is 168 and he is 146.
Bobs Worth hits more stats than any other and only one he falls down on is hurdles, which has also been discussed as being the least relevant. Champion Court does well bar running on 1st Jan and he is very close to hurldes RPR of 135. His is 139. Invictus hits every one bar age |
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I could well back CC if he runs in this but I suspect the Jewson is more likely.
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