Cheltenham Festival
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10 Feb 12
23:05
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
The RSA Chase on paper this year looks a good renewal. This is largely on the basis that we have a good crop of hurdlers who have been sent over the larger obstacles. However, looking at recent past renewals, hurdling success hasn't always been translated into the success many people think it should bring.
The race has a history of being won by traditional staying chasers rather than those who were classy over hurdles. In the last two seasons we have had previous season's World Hurdle runner up go off a short price favourite and get beaten (Time for Rupert and Punchestowns). We are again faced with a similar situation this year, in the form of Grand Crus.
In fact 8 of the last 11 winners had recorded an RPR of no higher than 135 in their previous season hurdling. With the top of the market the way it is and this being the case, I still think there is some serious value around.
Grand Crus - 3/1f
The obvious first problem with him is that he may not run. When last quoted the owner said he was "70:30" to miss the race. Although I think he's more likely than that to run (I'd have it 50:50) the price offers no value as a consequence.
If he does run there is a question mark is him being able to show his best at the trip. He is such a strong going sort that there is a big question mark on him being able to produce his best in what is typically a stamina sapping test. People were even calling for him to run in the Arkle after his first start this season.
Many people are keen on him because he finished close to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. However, playing Devil's Advocate you could say he only finished 3l in front of Cross Kennon that day. At Aintree off a stronger pace Big Bucks showed his true superiority and Grand Crus only finished 7l in front of the 147 rated Won in the Dark. Also as I have previously mentioned hurdles form doesn't translate to RSA glory.
I also would not have him such a short price on chasing form. First time out his main danger fell and then he was receiving weight from Champion Court, and the form has worked out poorly of his second run. Last time to be fair to him, he was impressive when winning the Feltham but he noticeably didn't put any distance between him and his challengers in the home straight. The Feltham is a totally different test to the RSA, and this is shown by the fact that all 17 Feltham winners have been beaten in the RSA.
Bobs Worth - 5/1
Have nothing against the horse and think he is as likely winner as anything in the field. However, his price of 5/1 is not that generous at the moment and I would prefer to see if the Wind Op he's had since his last run has the desired effect. Also although it is harsh to hold it against him yet, he's still only had two chase starts.
The record of horses with two or less chase starts in the RSA is appaling in recent seasons. In the past 5 years 11 horses have run who have had two or less chase starts recording figures of 5FP5P6PP2P0. Looking at just the "fancied" runners (12/1 or below) they still produce figures of 5P5P6PP0. These horses are no mugs either: Time For Rupert, Aiteen ThirtyThree, Punchestowns, Diamond Harry, What A Friend, Killyglen, Starzaan and Dom D'Orgeval.
He is hopefully going to run at Ascot next week, but with the weather the way it is at the moment you can't be sure, so it's just a point to keep a note of if he can't get a prep in.
First Lieutenant - 9/1
A prime example of a horse being priced up on hurdles form. He has been very disappointing over fences and hasn't looked a complete natural. He's started a short priced favourite on all five starts but only has two narrow unimpressive victories to his name. Even Davy Russell must be losing patience with him having stuck with him over less fancied stable mates the last twice, only to see him been beaten by them easily. He had his ground last time but was brushed aside easily, and only just finished in front of a horse who is 50/1 for this.
People use the fact he won at Cheltenham last season as a reason to follow him, but on his last start before that he'd won a Grade 1 on ground he would have hated. Over fences, on ground he would have loved he couldn't even get close to matching that level of form. He also has to break the stat that the last 48 winners had all run in the calendar year of their win!
Join Together - 10/1
To put it simply, I don't think he's good enough and I don't think Mr Nicholls thinks he is either. He hasn't committed him to the race all season and has said from the outset he saw him as a 4 miler contender. I wasn't impressed with him in November and although better last time, I'd be surprised if he could win a RSA. Nicholls also stated last time that he thinks he's much better suited to the New Course (RSA run on Old). It must also be remembered he was all out at sea in the Albert Bartlett (fancied - 8/1) last season when faced with a big field/quick ground.
Silviniaco Conti - 12/1
Another runner who isn't 100% likely to turn up, so as an ante post selection he makes no appeal whatsoever. Paul Nicholls has always said Aintree is the main aim and it's hard to see him being suited by a 3 mile slog round Cheltenham as he would be the test that Aintree will produce. The big stat against him is that he's a 6 year old and only two have won since 1978.
Selection: 1pt E/W Lambro 25/1 (General)
Having gone through the race in detail, at the prices this is a straight forward selection. A winner of a good bumper over 20f (RPR 125) he took to hurdles very well last season. First time out he was beaten a short head, but it was a race he should have definitely won. He was given a very poor ride by Townend and in their summary Racing Post said:
"Runner-up Lambro somehow failed to win and all the blame has to fall on the shoulders of Paul Townend. Held up in mid-division, he made up his ground stylishly enough and was in a good position before the second-last, but his rider completely overdid the confidence bit expecting his mount to just pick up and go past whenever he wanted instead of going about his business earlier. He didn´t even really produce his stick until the last 50 yards. Townend has earned plenty of plaudits over the last couple of seasons and rightly so, but this was a poor performance by his standards."
Stepped up to three miles next time he won with ease before taking a Grade 2 on his next start. The form of the Grade 2 has worked out well, with Last Installment, Flemenstar and Gift of Dgab all behind him. The drop down to 2m4f wasn't thought to suit him that day either and Willie Mullins said after the win "we came here more in hope than confidence because he was dropping down in distance". He then disappointed at Punchestown 8 days later, but it is likely the run came too soon.
This season he has taken to fences well on won impressively first time out disposing of Shinrock Paddy (runner up in Grade 1 since) with consumate ease since. After that win over 19f his trainer commented "I'm a little surprised. I thought the trip would be too short but his jumping was so good. We'll step him up in trip".
Surprisingly he was dropped back to 16f last time and gave Flemenstar a fright only going down by 3.5l. Flemenstar won a Grade 1 by 19l next time out and that form is red hot. Also both his runs this season have been on very soft ground and he has always promised to be suited by better ground. The fact he can run a Grade 1 winner so close on ground that suits and over a totally inappropiate trip shows what an engine he has.
He has three entries at Cheltenham (2.5,3,4m) and although it doesn't pay to second guess Wille Mullins, I think he'll end up in the RSA. Firstly, Willie Mullins main other hope is Sir Des Champs, but with Gigginstown having more fancied options it is likely he will go for the Jewson, leaving the path clear for Lambro to go this route. Also Mullins usually uses the Dr P.J Moriarty (entered overnight) as his prep for his RSA candidates. His last 5 runners in the event have been MDH, Quel Espirit, Citizen Vic, Cousin Vinny and Cooldine. Cousin Vinny went back over hurdles for the festival (World Hurdle - 3 miles still!) and the other 4 all ran in the RSA. Also MDH, Citizen Vic and Cooldine had all run over 17f or shorter that season, so the fact Lambro has should not be seen as a negative.
It must also be noted Willie Mullins has a very good record in the RSA with 3 wins.
I also like Last Installment (who he runs against on Sunday) but at 3 x the price Lambro is the obvious bet of the pair. 25/1 could look very big come this time Sunday.
The race has a history of being won by traditional staying chasers rather than those who were classy over hurdles. In the last two seasons we have had previous season's World Hurdle runner up go off a short price favourite and get beaten (Time for Rupert and Punchestowns). We are again faced with a similar situation this year, in the form of Grand Crus.
In fact 8 of the last 11 winners had recorded an RPR of no higher than 135 in their previous season hurdling. With the top of the market the way it is and this being the case, I still think there is some serious value around.
Grand Crus - 3/1f
The obvious first problem with him is that he may not run. When last quoted the owner said he was "70:30" to miss the race. Although I think he's more likely than that to run (I'd have it 50:50) the price offers no value as a consequence.
If he does run there is a question mark is him being able to show his best at the trip. He is such a strong going sort that there is a big question mark on him being able to produce his best in what is typically a stamina sapping test. People were even calling for him to run in the Arkle after his first start this season.
Many people are keen on him because he finished close to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. However, playing Devil's Advocate you could say he only finished 3l in front of Cross Kennon that day. At Aintree off a stronger pace Big Bucks showed his true superiority and Grand Crus only finished 7l in front of the 147 rated Won in the Dark. Also as I have previously mentioned hurdles form doesn't translate to RSA glory.
I also would not have him such a short price on chasing form. First time out his main danger fell and then he was receiving weight from Champion Court, and the form has worked out poorly of his second run. Last time to be fair to him, he was impressive when winning the Feltham but he noticeably didn't put any distance between him and his challengers in the home straight. The Feltham is a totally different test to the RSA, and this is shown by the fact that all 17 Feltham winners have been beaten in the RSA.
Bobs Worth - 5/1
Have nothing against the horse and think he is as likely winner as anything in the field. However, his price of 5/1 is not that generous at the moment and I would prefer to see if the Wind Op he's had since his last run has the desired effect. Also although it is harsh to hold it against him yet, he's still only had two chase starts.
The record of horses with two or less chase starts in the RSA is appaling in recent seasons. In the past 5 years 11 horses have run who have had two or less chase starts recording figures of 5FP5P6PP2P0. Looking at just the "fancied" runners (12/1 or below) they still produce figures of 5P5P6PP0. These horses are no mugs either: Time For Rupert, Aiteen ThirtyThree, Punchestowns, Diamond Harry, What A Friend, Killyglen, Starzaan and Dom D'Orgeval.
He is hopefully going to run at Ascot next week, but with the weather the way it is at the moment you can't be sure, so it's just a point to keep a note of if he can't get a prep in.
First Lieutenant - 9/1
A prime example of a horse being priced up on hurdles form. He has been very disappointing over fences and hasn't looked a complete natural. He's started a short priced favourite on all five starts but only has two narrow unimpressive victories to his name. Even Davy Russell must be losing patience with him having stuck with him over less fancied stable mates the last twice, only to see him been beaten by them easily. He had his ground last time but was brushed aside easily, and only just finished in front of a horse who is 50/1 for this.
People use the fact he won at Cheltenham last season as a reason to follow him, but on his last start before that he'd won a Grade 1 on ground he would have hated. Over fences, on ground he would have loved he couldn't even get close to matching that level of form. He also has to break the stat that the last 48 winners had all run in the calendar year of their win!
Join Together - 10/1
To put it simply, I don't think he's good enough and I don't think Mr Nicholls thinks he is either. He hasn't committed him to the race all season and has said from the outset he saw him as a 4 miler contender. I wasn't impressed with him in November and although better last time, I'd be surprised if he could win a RSA. Nicholls also stated last time that he thinks he's much better suited to the New Course (RSA run on Old). It must also be remembered he was all out at sea in the Albert Bartlett (fancied - 8/1) last season when faced with a big field/quick ground.
Silviniaco Conti - 12/1
Another runner who isn't 100% likely to turn up, so as an ante post selection he makes no appeal whatsoever. Paul Nicholls has always said Aintree is the main aim and it's hard to see him being suited by a 3 mile slog round Cheltenham as he would be the test that Aintree will produce. The big stat against him is that he's a 6 year old and only two have won since 1978.
Selection: 1pt E/W Lambro 25/1 (General)
Having gone through the race in detail, at the prices this is a straight forward selection. A winner of a good bumper over 20f (RPR 125) he took to hurdles very well last season. First time out he was beaten a short head, but it was a race he should have definitely won. He was given a very poor ride by Townend and in their summary Racing Post said:
"Runner-up Lambro somehow failed to win and all the blame has to fall on the shoulders of Paul Townend. Held up in mid-division, he made up his ground stylishly enough and was in a good position before the second-last, but his rider completely overdid the confidence bit expecting his mount to just pick up and go past whenever he wanted instead of going about his business earlier. He didn´t even really produce his stick until the last 50 yards. Townend has earned plenty of plaudits over the last couple of seasons and rightly so, but this was a poor performance by his standards."
Stepped up to three miles next time he won with ease before taking a Grade 2 on his next start. The form of the Grade 2 has worked out well, with Last Installment, Flemenstar and Gift of Dgab all behind him. The drop down to 2m4f wasn't thought to suit him that day either and Willie Mullins said after the win "we came here more in hope than confidence because he was dropping down in distance". He then disappointed at Punchestown 8 days later, but it is likely the run came too soon.
This season he has taken to fences well on won impressively first time out disposing of Shinrock Paddy (runner up in Grade 1 since) with consumate ease since. After that win over 19f his trainer commented "I'm a little surprised. I thought the trip would be too short but his jumping was so good. We'll step him up in trip".
Surprisingly he was dropped back to 16f last time and gave Flemenstar a fright only going down by 3.5l. Flemenstar won a Grade 1 by 19l next time out and that form is red hot. Also both his runs this season have been on very soft ground and he has always promised to be suited by better ground. The fact he can run a Grade 1 winner so close on ground that suits and over a totally inappropiate trip shows what an engine he has.
He has three entries at Cheltenham (2.5,3,4m) and although it doesn't pay to second guess Wille Mullins, I think he'll end up in the RSA. Firstly, Willie Mullins main other hope is Sir Des Champs, but with Gigginstown having more fancied options it is likely he will go for the Jewson, leaving the path clear for Lambro to go this route. Also Mullins usually uses the Dr P.J Moriarty (entered overnight) as his prep for his RSA candidates. His last 5 runners in the event have been MDH, Quel Espirit, Citizen Vic, Cousin Vinny and Cooldine. Cousin Vinny went back over hurdles for the festival (World Hurdle - 3 miles still!) and the other 4 all ran in the RSA. Also MDH, Citizen Vic and Cooldine had all run over 17f or shorter that season, so the fact Lambro has should not be seen as a negative.
It must also be noted Willie Mullins has a very good record in the RSA with 3 wins.
I also like Last Installment (who he runs against on Sunday) but at 3 x the price Lambro is the obvious bet of the pair. 25/1 could look very big come this time Sunday.
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nice article, however your conclusion doesnt really fit the rest of your arguments for not backing the other horses... i was expecting u to go for last installment as i was reading down,, jumps, stays, not flashy. however glad u like lambro as i got some 80s
Slightly worried Mossley is going for the 2m4f Scily Isles chase tomorrow.
Have backed him at 8's to be placed in the RSA, but he also has an entry in the Jewson. Hopefully this will be a prep as he relished the stamina test of the AB last year.
Have backed him at 8's to be placed in the RSA, but he also has an entry in the Jewson. Hopefully this will be a prep as he relished the stamina test of the AB last year.
I hope so too WellC, but I'm sure you're right - 2 m 4 looks an inadequte trip. However, I like the angle of novices running below their optimum trip to teach them to jump at pace - it's something Mullins is a master of for example. Plus it looks like Bobs Worth is an intended runner in the Reynoldstown and NH doesn't likle running his novices against each other.
I've backed him tbp for the RSA too. I would imagine that's the target but no point giving him too hard a race this close to the festival
if id backed mossley id be more worried that he cant jump.
Bobs Worth's jumping reminds me of Long Run.
He pings them when in his comfort zone, but when he is taken out of his comfort zone his jumping goes all over the place
He pings them when in his comfort zone, but when he is taken out of his comfort zone his jumping goes all over the place
stayer,further the better.
SC will be in jewson i imagine.
SC will be in jewson i imagine.
Invictus looks the most likely threat to Grands Crus imo.
your right Budd, Bobs Worth looks an out and out stayer, even though he had the speed to beat Rock on Ruby over hurdles. However, his jumping is a big concern for me; although I thought he jumped left handed today and that will suit him at Cheltenham.
Can't have First Leuitenant as a 7/1 shot at all based on his form over fences. Last Instalment coming out is a massive blow to the race.
I'd have Sir Des Champs ahead of First Leuitenant, but it's unclear where he'll run.
12/1 that is available for Invictus is not a bad ew bet for me. Hard to think Bobs Worth can reverse that form even though he was gaining, but I think Invictus had a lot more left in the tank.
your right Budd, Bobs Worth looks an out and out stayer, even though he had the speed to beat Rock on Ruby over hurdles. However, his jumping is a big concern for me; although I thought he jumped left handed today and that will suit him at Cheltenham.
Can't have First Leuitenant as a 7/1 shot at all based on his form over fences. Last Instalment coming out is a massive blow to the race.
I'd have Sir Des Champs ahead of First Leuitenant, but it's unclear where he'll run.
12/1 that is available for Invictus is not a bad ew bet for me. Hard to think Bobs Worth can reverse that form even though he was gaining, but I think Invictus had a lot more left in the tank.
* Lieutenant - had one eye on Massinis Maguire when typing that 
yeh,i dont like his jumping either.
I would put him back over hurdles.
I would put him back over hurdles.
If he stays chasing,they should look at the 4 miler maybe,might suit him better as re his jumping.
Have to say thought bobs worth ran a cracking RSA trial for me...he jumped ok but just feel he is crying out for going back left handed, his last 2 runs, the tracks haven't played to his strengths and I think he could be an entirely different proposition back at cheltenham and for me he will turn the tables on invictus on 3lb better terms...looking to need the race to me and the ground (tacky) wouldn't of been his cup of tea and I thought geraghty gave him a very easy time of it with cheltenham in mind....
I think ok corals 7-1 on offer a nice ew play here, whether he is good enough to shake up grands crus I don't know but I like the fact he has prepped, where as a lot of the other runners haven't and Nicky hendersons comments after the race "He ran a fantastic race. If you´d have seen him three weeks ago you´d have thought he was finished for the season." After a breathing op and needing the race I will be very surprised if this lovely horse cannot at least make the places and if he can eye ball and get Grands Crus off the bridle I'm sure this warrior will find plenty...got to love him...
Stats are sometimes to be used with a pinch of salt...but looking back, not one horse from 2000 (can't be asked to go further) onwards has won this race without a preparation race in january or febuary...make what you will of it but I think it is quite a big one when First Lieutenant, Grands Crus and join together all his main market rivals haven't...of course todays winner has but like I say I fancy Bobs Worth to be different gravy going back left handed...7-1 ew a pleasure...many thanks...
I think ok corals 7-1 on offer a nice ew play here, whether he is good enough to shake up grands crus I don't know but I like the fact he has prepped, where as a lot of the other runners haven't and Nicky hendersons comments after the race "He ran a fantastic race. If you´d have seen him three weeks ago you´d have thought he was finished for the season." After a breathing op and needing the race I will be very surprised if this lovely horse cannot at least make the places and if he can eye ball and get Grands Crus off the bridle I'm sure this warrior will find plenty...got to love him...
Stats are sometimes to be used with a pinch of salt...but looking back, not one horse from 2000 (can't be asked to go further) onwards has won this race without a preparation race in january or febuary...make what you will of it but I think it is quite a big one when First Lieutenant, Grands Crus and join together all his main market rivals haven't...of course todays winner has but like I say I fancy Bobs Worth to be different gravy going back left handed...7-1 ew a pleasure...many thanks...
I agree with harry, I'll be surprised if Invictus can confirm form. The return to Cheltenham will suit Bob's who almost certainly wants to go left over fences. He looked badly in need of it today imo. Invictus was impressive but was very disappointing on his only visit to Cheltenham and is still to prove he acts on the course. To me he would of been primed today (King is in rude form as well) whereas the runner up's day is at Cheltenham in March. Despite this they came out about the same horse at the weights.
Agree. Bobs will be better at Cheltenham and would expect him to reverse form with Invictus. Still not entirely certain Grands Crus will go for this, but I think First Lieutenant will improve for the demands of the race and will be the main challenger to GC should he run.
I'm still struggling to work out Bobs Worth.
The best he has jumped was his opening chase over 2m4f against Cue Card when they were going faster.
I just don't like the way his jumping goes to pieces when he's off the bridle, and that will certainly happen in the RSA. To me, Grands Crus looks a much more natural jumper than Bobs Worth.
Invictus improved a lot for the extra distance today imo. I'm not convinced that Bobs Worth will be able to turn the form around, but there you go.
FWIW, I've backed neither in the race, so that's an independent opinion
The best he has jumped was his opening chase over 2m4f against Cue Card when they were going faster.
I just don't like the way his jumping goes to pieces when he's off the bridle, and that will certainly happen in the RSA. To me, Grands Crus looks a much more natural jumper than Bobs Worth.
Invictus improved a lot for the extra distance today imo. I'm not convinced that Bobs Worth will be able to turn the form around, but there you go.
FWIW, I've backed neither in the race, so that's an independent opinion
I think Grands Crus might be the hype horse of the Festival this year. He's a flashy grey and he's got a big rep, but his form keeps taking knock after knock. He's a weak favourite imo and horses like Join Together and perhaps some of the Irish, with little collateral form, are where I'm looking.
I do think Grands Crus has some top notch novice form though. Whether he should be 6/4 for the RSA is another matter.
He was very impressive against Champion Court and at Kempton on Boxing Day.
I think Bobs Worth's price is very poor tbh; and would want bigger than 5 and 6/1, which is his general price.
He beat Cue Card getting a lot of weight, although short of his ideal distance. I don't think Tizzard covered himself in glory in that race, and maybe Bobs Worth was a slightly fortunate winner.
Then there was Kempton where he didn't run a yard and jumped poor, and then today, where his jumping went poor when off the bridle.
I think he jumps a hurdle much better than a fence, but its a game of opinions.
Again, I haven't backed him, Invictus or Grands Crus (well I backed GC on here at 5.6 but layed it off last week). I thought Bobs Worth would go right to the top over fences (and he may still do); I backed Mossley for the RSA for small stakes because of his proximity to Bobs Worth in the Albert Bartlett, and I put Bobs Worth in my 10 to follow.
He's just disappointed me a bit this season that's all
He was very impressive against Champion Court and at Kempton on Boxing Day.
I think Bobs Worth's price is very poor tbh; and would want bigger than 5 and 6/1, which is his general price.
He beat Cue Card getting a lot of weight, although short of his ideal distance. I don't think Tizzard covered himself in glory in that race, and maybe Bobs Worth was a slightly fortunate winner.
Then there was Kempton where he didn't run a yard and jumped poor, and then today, where his jumping went poor when off the bridle.
I think he jumps a hurdle much better than a fence, but its a game of opinions.
Again, I haven't backed him, Invictus or Grands Crus (well I backed GC on here at 5.6 but layed it off last week). I thought Bobs Worth would go right to the top over fences (and he may still do); I backed Mossley for the RSA for small stakes because of his proximity to Bobs Worth in the Albert Bartlett, and I put Bobs Worth in my 10 to follow.
He's just disappointed me a bit this season that's all
Well Chief I can sort of see where your coming from but think he will a different horse back left handed on a different track...then we can criticize I'd say...his jumping will have to improve to win though but thats possible given the preparation he has had this season...his attitude is second to none and he will improve plenty if good enough...
What do you guys make of the stat of horses prepping for this race??? Quite important I'd say, not that I'm really a stat man...
What do you guys make of the stat of horses prepping for this race??? Quite important I'd say, not that I'm really a stat man...
True Harry, I'm far from writing him off at this stage.
Maybe my hopes were too high going in to the start of the season, based on his hurdles runs (where he had the perfect blend of speed and stamina).
You can't question his attitude; in all three races this year he has looked well beaten, but he battled back to beat Cue Card, he came from a mile back at Kempton and flew past Conti today.
Win, lose or draw in the RSA you'll definitely get a run for your money. Good luck if you took the 7's with Coral - if he makes it he'll be shorter than that on the day.
As for the stats, I suppose Grands Crus run was only 5 days outside of January, but like you, I don't really follow stats that much.
Maybe my hopes were too high going in to the start of the season, based on his hurdles runs (where he had the perfect blend of speed and stamina).
You can't question his attitude; in all three races this year he has looked well beaten, but he battled back to beat Cue Card, he came from a mile back at Kempton and flew past Conti today.
Win, lose or draw in the RSA you'll definitely get a run for your money. Good luck if you took the 7's with Coral - if he makes it he'll be shorter than that on the day.
As for the stats, I suppose Grands Crus run was only 5 days outside of January, but like you, I don't really follow stats that much.
It's a stat that might be quite important, for novices especially, though iirc Sizing Europe turned a similar stat over either for the Arkle or QMCC.
Sorry stront, what does iirc mean? I've noticed you've used it a bit recently.
Yes stats are there to be turned over but its no coincidence in this race...on the sizing europe stat he had had plenty of experience early season the same can be said of first lieutenant I suppose...but I think the free going grands crus I would of been keen to have seen prepped if I were a backer...
No worries.
The stat is something likle the last 47 RSA winners have run in the same calendar year. That's the sort of stat judo would not ignore
The stat is something likle the last 47 RSA winners have run in the same calendar year. That's the sort of stat judo would not ignore
From the ATR stats guide to the RSA
Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences so that is as good as any combination of factors to home in on for starters.
Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three strong negative patterns kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year.
He also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience having had just two outings over fences beforehand whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles. Furthermore, no RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie.
For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start.
In addition, the Irish supplied last season’s runner-up and close-up fourth in addition to the winner. Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds with the British challenge headed by Paul Nicholls with two winners since 2006.
If the Feltham Novices’ Chase winner, Grands Crus, heads here and goes on to win, then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed.
Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving
Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings so take particular note of those but beware horses aged one year younger as this is a tough race and they have been found out on numerous occasions winning just twice since 1978. Star De Mohaison did win this race as a five-year-old but that was when they received a 10lbs weight-for-age allowance that has now been slashed to just 1lb so they can go too. Neither am I tempted by novices aged nine or over as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those and 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993.
Summary
Positives
Seven-year-olds
Contested novice hurdles last season
Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins
Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase
Negatives
Finished outside the first two last time out
Less than three chase starts
Not run during the same calendar year
Aged younger than seven and older than eight
The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner
Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences so that is as good as any combination of factors to home in on for starters.
Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three strong negative patterns kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year.
He also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience having had just two outings over fences beforehand whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles. Furthermore, no RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie.
For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start.
In addition, the Irish supplied last season’s runner-up and close-up fourth in addition to the winner. Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds with the British challenge headed by Paul Nicholls with two winners since 2006.
If the Feltham Novices’ Chase winner, Grands Crus, heads here and goes on to win, then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed.
Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving
Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings so take particular note of those but beware horses aged one year younger as this is a tough race and they have been found out on numerous occasions winning just twice since 1978. Star De Mohaison did win this race as a five-year-old but that was when they received a 10lbs weight-for-age allowance that has now been slashed to just 1lb so they can go too. Neither am I tempted by novices aged nine or over as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those and 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993.
Summary
Positives
Seven-year-olds
Contested novice hurdles last season
Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins
Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase
Negatives
Finished outside the first two last time out
Less than three chase starts
Not run during the same calendar year
Aged younger than seven and older than eight
The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner
** Final paragraph should start:
Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving here off an incompletion is hardly ideal.
Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so a novice arriving here off an incompletion is hardly ideal.
Bob's will be better suited by the track at Cheltenham surely, and will be running off levels, from the sounds of things will be fitter but IMO his jumping is like a 7lb penalty.
Lots of stats negatives for Grands Crus - the no run this year, the Feltham (which I think is a red herring), the no more than one season over hurdles.
Looking at those stats, Last Instalment would have fitted perfectly
Positives
Seven-year-olds - YES
Contested novice hurdles last season - YES
Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins - YES
Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase - YES
Negatives
Finished outside the first two last time out - NO
Less than three chase starts - NO
Not run during the same calendar year - NO
Aged younger than seven and older than eight - NO
The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner - NO
Bl00dy shame he's out
Positives
Seven-year-olds - YES
Contested novice hurdles last season - YES
Irish-trained and notably Willie Mullins - YES
Contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase - YES
Negatives
Finished outside the first two last time out - NO
Less than three chase starts - NO
Not run during the same calendar year - NO
Aged younger than seven and older than eight - NO
The winner Feltham Novices’ Chase winner - NO
Bl00dy shame he's out
I don't like the form from today at all. Invictus may be better than the result suggests, certainly looked to have a lot left and jumped well. Bob's Worth hasn't seemed a natural chaser on his last two starts and Silvinaco let the form down badly, especially given Ascot suits the horse. Don't like the proximity of Alfie Spinner.
Wicketd - what do you think that all means for/about Grands Crus?
This race is so hard to get the winner of, Its a hype horses graveyard. I've had Weapons Amnesty and Boston's Angel the last two years. I think just picking the horse with the biggest heart and the biggest balls gets you a long way. It is so easy to see Grand Crus as another Long Run/Punchestowns/Time for Rupert. That doesnt mean he will be but of the two I'd still take Bob's Worth.
I've backed Bob's Worth to win at 5/1, and I'd have loved to see the horse romp home today, but there's a decent price about it for an each way poke now, and in conditions that will surely suit it much better it should be on the premises, and still plugging on when others have cried enough.
I've backed Bob's Worth to win at 5/1, and I'd have loved to see the horse romp home today, but there's a decent price about it for an each way poke now, and in conditions that will surely suit it much better it should be on the premises, and still plugging on when others have cried enough.
I follow the stats a lot for all races at Cheltenham. But I cannot for the life of me see Grand Crus not winning the RSA. The fact that even the trainer is very tempting for the Gold Cup should be enough neither mind and the way he won his races very easily. Also I like the fact that Pipe yard will have all there horses sweet for Cheltenham as always. But another note shame on Last Installment as he was my each way alternative. Roll on the festival................!!
watching that yesterday and the Feltham their is no way i will be backing Bobsworth,he just dont jump well enough for me.
I appreciate he may be better left handed,but current price for that hope - no thanks.
I appreciate he may be better left handed,but current price for that hope - no thanks.
I agree with that Budd and to me he just seems slow as well. Looks an out and out staying plodder.
budd and stront do you not think the tracks have been against bobs worth his last 2 runs??
I just think his newbury run should be how you judge him...but agree his jumping has to improve...
don't know why but just have a bad feeling for grands crus and he missed a prep race with just another 4 days just to go there fresh...just smells a tad I don't know why.
I just think his newbury run should be how you judge him...but agree his jumping has to improve...
don't know why but just have a bad feeling for grands crus and he missed a prep race with just another 4 days just to go there fresh...just smells a tad I don't know why.
Harry, I think BW will be suited more by Cheltenham than by Ascot or Kempton yes. That might mean he wins the RSA - he surely has enough stamina. But he doesn't look a top 3 m chaser in the making to me because his jumping is sticky and he seems to get outpaced very easily before staying on. He looks the kind of horse that would stay for ever and might be one for Welsh/Irish/Scots Nationals (etc) off his current mark.
As for Grands Crus, the negatives just keep mounting for me. I could be totally wrong - he might be the best thing since sliced bread - or even since Sprinter Sacre - but so far I think he's all hype.
As for Grands Crus, the negatives just keep mounting for me. I could be totally wrong - he might be the best thing since sliced bread - or even since Sprinter Sacre - but so far I think he's all hype.
ran a few nice races for a hype horse mind....even going back to last season over hurdles.
whether he should be 7/4 im not sure but i think hes a worthy fav.
i can see first leiutenant,invictus and if he runs call the police being interesting.
whether he should be 7/4 im not sure but i think hes a worthy fav.
i can see first leiutenant,invictus and if he runs call the police being interesting.
Tweedle - I accept he was a very good hurdler but hurdling is not steeplechasing. I've only been really impressed by one of his 3 chases to date which was his first. The Newbury run now looks poor and the Feltham form is clearly nothing special. Last season Time For Rupert was the second coming.
Have to disagree stont I thought the kempton run was top draw from grands crus...they went very quick and the time was very fast to back up the form...nicholls horses are not running well and bobs worth was in desperate need of the yesterday...
I am with tweed think he is a worthy fav, whether he wins or not is another matter...
very difficult race to fathom now as first lieutenant as much as i respect him is similar to bobs worth in regard to his fencing, it is not impressive...
I am with tweed think he is a worthy fav, whether he wins or not is another matter...
very difficult race to fathom now as first lieutenant as much as i respect him is similar to bobs worth in regard to his fencing, it is not impressive...
Harry, you might be right. But to rate the Feltham form we have to say Silv C and Bobs Worth were at their best that day and a long way off yesterday. That could be the case, but not necessarily. In any case, I don't think beating Silvianco Conti by a fast diminishing 2 l is a great performance and I have some doubts that Grands Crus truly stays. That could all be wrong!
It's a real shame Last Instalment is out as he looked the best of the Irish. There are a few possibles - Join Together and now Invictus are interesting. It's possible the RSA won't be a great race this year, lacking stars if I'm right about Grands C.
It's a real shame Last Instalment is out as he looked the best of the Irish. There are a few possibles - Join Together and now Invictus are interesting. It's possible the RSA won't be a great race this year, lacking stars if I'm right about Grands C.
Ye agree but still a lot of potential...
I would say grands crus though put more pace to the race after they had already gone quick...agree though he did look tired and if the pace is on which is likely he will have to stay every yard at cheltenham...I still think grands crus to be at his very best needs more cut in the ground...
I don't normally bet 2 or more but may do here...could be a good in running race to play with bobs worth and first lieutenant needing to jump better to get in the mix...am totally against join together here don't know why just feel he beat a load of plodders first time then beat the hard to evaluate mossley next time and we haven't seen him since he is also an old vic progeny I don't particularly like... I see him more as a grand national type if the trainer doesn't muck his mark up to much as his his want...also think he will need proper cut in order for him to seen at his very best I maybe wrong of course...agree on the last instalment he was a fascinating runner...
I would say grands crus though put more pace to the race after they had already gone quick...agree though he did look tired and if the pace is on which is likely he will have to stay every yard at cheltenham...I still think grands crus to be at his very best needs more cut in the ground...
I don't normally bet 2 or more but may do here...could be a good in running race to play with bobs worth and first lieutenant needing to jump better to get in the mix...am totally against join together here don't know why just feel he beat a load of plodders first time then beat the hard to evaluate mossley next time and we haven't seen him since he is also an old vic progeny I don't particularly like... I see him more as a grand national type if the trainer doesn't muck his mark up to much as his his want...also think he will need proper cut in order for him to seen at his very best I maybe wrong of course...agree on the last instalment he was a fascinating runner...
Harry, I think Join Together's mark is already shot for big handicaps (157, unbelievably). I liked his Cheltenham run as he clearly did stay and handle the course very well but you're right his form (through Mossley) has also taken a knock and he's not been out for a while. There's also the suspicion that Nicholls didn't really rate the horse as an RSA type at the start of the season.
I didn't feel Grands Crus quickened away in the Feltham, but to be fair that's probably because they were going at such a good gallop already.
I didn't feel Grands Crus quickened away in the Feltham, but to be fair that's probably because they were going at such a good gallop already.
Yes lots of questions to answer think I'm going to play bobs worth ew and the same on first lieutenant...think they are both good enough to get in the money then just play in the run...will be laying grands crus short as he does everything on the snaffle and you can guarantee he will be cruising at the top of the hill...might change my mind of course...
Actually need to think again with the 2 mentioned not being great jumpers I could double my losses...
ahh...annoying race because I like you, want to get grands crus...
maybe don't bet...but I still have bobs worth already win only...maybe just play in the run now...yep thats the way to go...
ahh...annoying race because I like you, want to get grands crus...
maybe don't bet...but I still have bobs worth already win only...maybe just play in the run now...yep thats the way to go...
Harry,
yes its possible hes better left handed,his runs thus far suggest that,but will that mean he jumps a lot better at Cheltenham?? at the odds im not prepared to pay to find out.
Join together is the one im looking at to test this field,think he will try to stretch them and could potentially get a few at it,so to speak.He will be on my side along with FL,who i have backed ages ago,although i aint that confident about him as re his jumping,but he does finish well and is gutsy,just hope his jumping holds up.
Grand Crus could literally be anything,but at the prices im willing to take him on,and like others i would be a tad concerned at him getting home as well as some of the opposition.
yes its possible hes better left handed,his runs thus far suggest that,but will that mean he jumps a lot better at Cheltenham?? at the odds im not prepared to pay to find out.
Join together is the one im looking at to test this field,think he will try to stretch them and could potentially get a few at it,so to speak.He will be on my side along with FL,who i have backed ages ago,although i aint that confident about him as re his jumping,but he does finish well and is gutsy,just hope his jumping holds up.
Grand Crus could literally be anything,but at the prices im willing to take him on,and like others i would be a tad concerned at him getting home as well as some of the opposition.
Yes good points and the jury is out on the jumping of bobs worth and first lieutenant...
pace - as always is going to be key and like you say join together does look the pace angle...I just wonder what his form is worth with mossley not looking a steeplechaser at all and his run before just looking decent handicap form...I am against him...first lieutenant is the imponderable here because we know he is decent but its just whether he can put a clear round in...I have to say he hasn't convinced me so far.
pace - as always is going to be key and like you say join together does look the pace angle...I just wonder what his form is worth with mossley not looking a steeplechaser at all and his run before just looking decent handicap form...I am against him...first lieutenant is the imponderable here because we know he is decent but its just whether he can put a clear round in...I have to say he hasn't convinced me so far.
Apparantly Bobs Worth only started galloping again last week after his wind operation. That may explain the drift in the market yesterday and if it is true that was a massive run all things considered.
Would question the argument that Invictus didnt act at Cheltenham , he was absolutely cruising at the top of the hill , then flat to the boards from two out ie having come down the hill . I assumed he wanted further , but as the trainer said , he had lost a shoe early on and finished sore . He too jumped a couple to the left at Ascot , my only worry with his very athletic jumping is that occassionally he jumps too big .
Invictus - Big drifter on here today for whatever reason now trading at 16...
i'm devastated Last Instalment is out as he was my banker for the festival (bar BB and Quevaga). Go completely with stats on RSA which led me to Bostons Angel last year and LS was the one for this year.
Wouldn't back Grand Crus with someone elses money - far too good a hurdler, too many seasons over hurdles and wont have run between 24-53 days of festival. Also, you are looking for a horse with maximum of 9-12 career runs
Wouldn't back Grand Crus with someone elses money - far too good a hurdler, too many seasons over hurdles and wont have run between 24-53 days of festival. Also, you are looking for a horse with maximum of 9-12 career runs
It looks to me like Bobs Worth is the stats horse for the RSA and Champion Court if that's where he goes.
Agree the old trend says you want 9-12 career starts but recent winners had had
bostons 15
weapons 13
cooldine 16
just shows trends can be misleading if used by the book...
I would certainly back grands crus with someone elses cash...very bold to say he can't win with the likely line up I'd say...although I also am keen to get him.
bostons 15
weapons 13
cooldine 16
just shows trends can be misleading if used by the book...
I would certainly back grands crus with someone elses cash...very bold to say he can't win with the likely line up I'd say...although I also am keen to get him.
Bobs Worth falls down on hurdle RPR. Ideally no bigger than 135 and his was 153. However, out of the 10 stats, the hurlde stat is the only one that doesnt have an 80% accuracy factor. Lost book from last year but think it was something like 60%
I'm not saying that GC can't win, that would be stupid, just saying that he isnt the pick on stats.
hmm, cant remember then if you exclude NHF races from calcualtion which based on that would actually take GC down to the required number of runs
hmm, cant remember then if you exclude NHF races from calcualtion which based on that would actually take GC down to the required number of runs
Tory - that trend about the hurdles RPR is weakening - 3 of the last 5 didn't meet it iirc.
Also wouldn't take that stat seriously either...that has also proven to be unreliable
denman 155
cooldine 150
weapons 154
all recent winners had run to this prior to winning an RSA
hope this helps tory but would suggest doing a tad of homework yourself...otherwise you maybe mislead...
denman 155
cooldine 150
weapons 154
all recent winners had run to this prior to winning an RSA
hope this helps tory but would suggest doing a tad of homework yourself...otherwise you maybe mislead...
I did say that out of the 10 stats given in the book last year the hurdle stat was the only one below the 80% factor as a minimum.
Bobs Worth hits every single stat bar that one, and if all others are falling down on an 80% factor stat then he would of course score the highest
Bobs Worth hits every single stat bar that one, and if all others are falling down on an 80% factor stat then he would of course score the highest
EC's Lambro does very well against the stats above. Only fails on 3rd vs top 2 last time out.
More worrying is whether he's good enough after he got stuffed last week.
Going on last year's he also falls down on being within 14lb of RPR top rated. GC is 168 and he is 146.
Bobs Worth hits more stats than any other and only one he falls down on is hurdles, which has also been discussed as being the least relevant.
Champion Court does well bar running on 1st Jan and he is very close to hurldes RPR of 135. His is 139.
Invictus hits every one bar age
Bobs Worth hits more stats than any other and only one he falls down on is hurdles, which has also been discussed as being the least relevant.
Champion Court does well bar running on 1st Jan and he is very close to hurldes RPR of 135. His is 139.
Invictus hits every one bar age
I could well back CC if he runs in this but I suspect the Jewson is more likely.
I wouldn't get too hung up on stats and trends personally.
Champion Court has loads to find with Join Together and Grands Crus, so to me, he could hit every stat perfectly and I still wouldn't back him.
This race isn't looking as strong to me as it once was, and is looking more like Grands Crus is the likely winner.
I'm struggling to find creditable opposition to him, but then again I never gave Bostons Angel a chance last year. Sir Des Champs interests me, but only when NRNB comes in
Champion Court has loads to find with Join Together and Grands Crus, so to me, he could hit every stat perfectly and I still wouldn't back him.
This race isn't looking as strong to me as it once was, and is looking more like Grands Crus is the likely winner.
I'm struggling to find creditable opposition to him, but then again I never gave Bostons Angel a chance last year. Sir Des Champs interests me, but only when NRNB comes in
Yes, my plan originally was to back BW and CC but then looked into it and agree Jewson is possibly more likely. Have a tinge of disappointment
Wellchief - this is a very strong stats race indeed for those who like to punt that way.
Thinking about it today I'm starting to wonder if Grands Crus will win almost by default. Not because he's as good as the hype, just because there may not be anything in the race good enough to beat him.
Thinking about it today I'm starting to wonder if Grands Crus will win almost by default. Not because he's as good as the hype, just because there may not be anything in the race good enough to beat him.
I agree mate.
I just can no longer see too many creditable opponents.
First Lieutenant has no real form in Ireland and is being priced up on his Neptune run, Bobs Worth has jumping issues, Join Together hasn't been seen in a long time and flopped in the AB last year, Bog warrior may not run, Lambro was put in his place in Ireland, Sir Des champs may not run and neither will Conti.
That leaves Invictus as the best challenger imo. There are better hurdlers in the field than Invictus but I was taken with the way he travelled lto.
Thats being a bit simplistic, and novices improve at vastly different rates, but gramds Crus looks to be a decent way ahead of the others. The one that beats him may be himself with his flashy style.
I just can no longer see too many creditable opponents.
First Lieutenant has no real form in Ireland and is being priced up on his Neptune run, Bobs Worth has jumping issues, Join Together hasn't been seen in a long time and flopped in the AB last year, Bog warrior may not run, Lambro was put in his place in Ireland, Sir Des champs may not run and neither will Conti.
That leaves Invictus as the best challenger imo. There are better hurdlers in the field than Invictus but I was taken with the way he travelled lto.
Thats being a bit simplistic, and novices improve at vastly different rates, but gramds Crus looks to be a decent way ahead of the others. The one that beats him may be himself with his flashy style.
bobsworth for me .
reportedly miles short of work since his wind op.
obviousy has to brush up on his jumping.
nothing will be staying on up the hill better and is an each way bet to nothing imo.
reportedly miles short of work since his wind op.
obviousy has to brush up on his jumping.
nothing will be staying on up the hill better and is an each way bet to nothing imo.
Longchamps, you do love your Henderson's don't you. Bobs Worth is a fair shout but he'll need to come on a ton from yesterday. In that sense it's good to know he's short of work as it explains a disappointing performance. You're right he'll stay. My doubt is that he'll be outpaced when they quicken and then be too far behind to catch up.
Stront (regarding GC), I'm not sure. He made a move in the Feltham that not many could make and sustain, so I'm not that surprised the distance was being whittled down. Importantly he never looked like being beaten, and jumped well. I'm not a backer or a layer of GC though.
I refuse to accept as relevant any stat that says a horse is too good to win a race... GC is poor value and I don't see him as the RSA type at all. Don't like Bobs Worth either. With Last Instalment out though I don't know what I do like...
Wicket - that's perfectly reasonable. racing is about getting to the line in front, not getting there by a huge margin and he did that very well. I suppose my point about Grands Crus is that he hasn't achieved anything as a chaser to justify some of the things people are saying about him - 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup ffs. He could turn out to be very good indeed, but at the moment I think many people are seeing what they want to see, not what is actually there.
Still really like Lambro if he turns up as an each way bet. Couldn't be thinking of Invictus at the prices, don't think the form is worth anything on Saturday.
Grands Crus (9/4) , Bobs Worth (7/2) , First Lieutenant (6) , Invictus (8) , Join Together (8) , Sir Des Champs (11) , Bog Warrior (20) , Lambro (25) , Call The Police (33) , Champion Court (33) , Walkon (33) , Berties Dream (40) , Cristal Bonus (40) , Allee Garde (50) , Mossley (50) , Teaforthree (50) , Benbane Head (66) , Cannington Brook (66) , Gift of Dgab (66) , Harpsy Cord (66) - Others 66 or more
EC - I also have Lambro e/w at 25s but my main bet is Invictus.
Very interested to understand what you don't like about Invictus, especially as when you posted he was 12s. To my eye he jumped like a stag over fences that are as stiff or not stiffer than Cheltenham and whilst it doesn't have the undulations, last 6F all uphill means that you need to stay. Also seemed to have a change of gear that will only stand him in good stead on typical Cheltenham ground.
Very interested to understand what you don't like about Invictus, especially as when you posted he was 12s. To my eye he jumped like a stag over fences that are as stiff or not stiffer than Cheltenham and whilst it doesn't have the undulations, last 6F all uphill means that you need to stay. Also seemed to have a change of gear that will only stand him in good stead on typical Cheltenham ground.
RSA CHASE comments.......
Paul Nicholls - We’ve purposely not run Join Together saving him for this. He jumps well and stays very well. Stamina is his forte so he would prefer the New Course (RSA run on Old Course). Paul Nicholls said Join Together has won twice at the course, and would stay on as well as anything in the race. Join together not far off Grand Crus on ratings. In good order. Proper chaser thought he was slow but kept on improving. Ruby not said who he's riding yet. S Conti goes to Aintree. Didn't feel he stayed at Kempton or Ascot.
David Pipe - If I could have £1 for every time I have been asked where Grands Crus will run. It’s a nice dilemma to have. It’s frightening looking at the media every day seeing who is missing the Festival so let’s see. We will decide five days before. David Pipe said Grand Crus was in great form at home, probably wouldn’t decide on the race, until the 5 day decs. After hearing news about Kauto Star, Grand Crus will be left in both 5 day entries. Grand Crus done nothing wrong. Gave him an entry in Betfair not worried about taking on older horses. Long way to go & plenty to happen. Not totally sure he will get the 3 m 2. Said everything up in the air has the ability to travel & jump in a Gold Cup. If Kauto's out he's 2nd fav. He seemed very undecided at times but just get the feeling he was edging towards Gold Cup.
Paul Jones - Grands Crus wouldn’t be a stats horse as Feltham winners have a shocking record but we know he bounds up the hill. I strongly fancy Bobs Worth each-way. He was giving Invictus weight at Ascot when not beaten far having only had one gallop since a wind op and is much better racing left-handed being unbeaten at Cheltenham in three starts. He also only had five lengths to find with Grands Crus in the Feltham and has had a wind op since and will be happier away from Kempton. Paul Jones respected Invictus and Bobs Worth who is 3/3 at Cheltenham. Indeed thought Bobs Worth EW at 5-1 was one of the best bets at the meeting
Andrew King - Grands Crus has to be one of the better bets of the meeting of those at short prices. Andrew king thought Bobs Worth would go well, but Grand Crus would win if running
Charlie Longsdon - I really can’t see past Grands Crus, he has too much class for these.
Andrew Tinkler - I’ve not had much to do with Bobs Worth until five days before Ascot when I was asked to school him beforehand. He has no wow factor about him and I would be a bit surprised if he can beat Grands Crus. It can often take a run to get over a wind operation as they think it might hurt them the next time they race. I think that might have happened at Ascot as he looked quite laboured but then when he realised it wasn’t going to hurt he ran on.
Kevan Minter - Grands Crus is one of my bankers of the meeting. He has high-class hurdles form and travels really easily. Invictus would be my idea of the main danger.
Ruby Walsh – Grand Crus doesnt really see out his races,Ruby also doesnt like peddlers cross,says he doesnt have a good enough cut at his fences. Grand Crus is beatable. Sir De Champs has a chance with a run.
Barry Geraghty was quite sweet on Bobs Worth in the RSA. Grand Crus is beatable. Bobs Worth is his choice.
Davy Russell - First Lieutenant/Sir de Champs. First Lieutenant does not have a chance and his form is not good enough and would prefer 2m 5f. He fancies Call the Police with a run.
Jim McGrath - Grand Crus/First Lieutenant
Tanya Stephenson - Grand cru's will go for gold- First Lieutenant/Bobsworth. Always felt Bob's Worth crying out for Cheltenham.
Joe Tizzard - Cannington Brook got an entry but might go handicap.
Paddy Power - A lot of people waiting for NRNB. Bob's Worth 3/3 at Chelt. 4/4 Left handed. First Lieutenant ran well behind Last Installment. Bobs Worth.
Jessica Harrington - Grand Crus, but admits he is vulnerable.
Colm Murphy - Whatever Davy Russell rides.
Donn McCVlean - First Lieutenant. But was disappointed to hear what DR had to say.
Both Kevin O’Ryan and Tony Martin solidly against Grand Crus.
Tony Martin preferring Sir Des Champs
Both Kevin O’Ryan and Damien McElroy opted for First Lieutenant, confident of Mouse Morris’s abilities with his small string to get one ready for the meeting.
Paul Nicholls - We’ve purposely not run Join Together saving him for this. He jumps well and stays very well. Stamina is his forte so he would prefer the New Course (RSA run on Old Course). Paul Nicholls said Join Together has won twice at the course, and would stay on as well as anything in the race. Join together not far off Grand Crus on ratings. In good order. Proper chaser thought he was slow but kept on improving. Ruby not said who he's riding yet. S Conti goes to Aintree. Didn't feel he stayed at Kempton or Ascot.
David Pipe - If I could have £1 for every time I have been asked where Grands Crus will run. It’s a nice dilemma to have. It’s frightening looking at the media every day seeing who is missing the Festival so let’s see. We will decide five days before. David Pipe said Grand Crus was in great form at home, probably wouldn’t decide on the race, until the 5 day decs. After hearing news about Kauto Star, Grand Crus will be left in both 5 day entries. Grand Crus done nothing wrong. Gave him an entry in Betfair not worried about taking on older horses. Long way to go & plenty to happen. Not totally sure he will get the 3 m 2. Said everything up in the air has the ability to travel & jump in a Gold Cup. If Kauto's out he's 2nd fav. He seemed very undecided at times but just get the feeling he was edging towards Gold Cup.
Paul Jones - Grands Crus wouldn’t be a stats horse as Feltham winners have a shocking record but we know he bounds up the hill. I strongly fancy Bobs Worth each-way. He was giving Invictus weight at Ascot when not beaten far having only had one gallop since a wind op and is much better racing left-handed being unbeaten at Cheltenham in three starts. He also only had five lengths to find with Grands Crus in the Feltham and has had a wind op since and will be happier away from Kempton. Paul Jones respected Invictus and Bobs Worth who is 3/3 at Cheltenham. Indeed thought Bobs Worth EW at 5-1 was one of the best bets at the meeting
Andrew King - Grands Crus has to be one of the better bets of the meeting of those at short prices. Andrew king thought Bobs Worth would go well, but Grand Crus would win if running
Charlie Longsdon - I really can’t see past Grands Crus, he has too much class for these.
Andrew Tinkler - I’ve not had much to do with Bobs Worth until five days before Ascot when I was asked to school him beforehand. He has no wow factor about him and I would be a bit surprised if he can beat Grands Crus. It can often take a run to get over a wind operation as they think it might hurt them the next time they race. I think that might have happened at Ascot as he looked quite laboured but then when he realised it wasn’t going to hurt he ran on.
Kevan Minter - Grands Crus is one of my bankers of the meeting. He has high-class hurdles form and travels really easily. Invictus would be my idea of the main danger.
Ruby Walsh – Grand Crus doesnt really see out his races,Ruby also doesnt like peddlers cross,says he doesnt have a good enough cut at his fences. Grand Crus is beatable. Sir De Champs has a chance with a run.
Barry Geraghty was quite sweet on Bobs Worth in the RSA. Grand Crus is beatable. Bobs Worth is his choice.
Davy Russell - First Lieutenant/Sir de Champs. First Lieutenant does not have a chance and his form is not good enough and would prefer 2m 5f. He fancies Call the Police with a run.
Jim McGrath - Grand Crus/First Lieutenant
Tanya Stephenson - Grand cru's will go for gold- First Lieutenant/Bobsworth. Always felt Bob's Worth crying out for Cheltenham.
Joe Tizzard - Cannington Brook got an entry but might go handicap.
Paddy Power - A lot of people waiting for NRNB. Bob's Worth 3/3 at Chelt. 4/4 Left handed. First Lieutenant ran well behind Last Installment. Bobs Worth.
Jessica Harrington - Grand Crus, but admits he is vulnerable.
Colm Murphy - Whatever Davy Russell rides.
Donn McCVlean - First Lieutenant. But was disappointed to hear what DR had to say.
Both Kevin O’Ryan and Tony Martin solidly against Grand Crus.
Tony Martin preferring Sir Des Champs
Both Kevin O’Ryan and Damien McElroy opted for First Lieutenant, confident of Mouse Morris’s abilities with his small string to get one ready for the meeting.
I think its just an incredibly weak market atm. Not really any money for anything
Unless someone has "hit him on the head with a hammer" while nobbling Long Run too
Spec,yeah your right i suppose,haven't backed him yet,but he's a fav of mine
and will do on the day
and will do on the day
I will definitely be keeping him onside too tt, will surely be bang there
Yeah,i think so,needs to go left handed badly imo and needs Cheltenham
Bang where? looking up the hill at First Lieutenant sailing away? 
I'm just doing my usual 'winding the fook up of tt' because he's in a triangular and very physical love relationship with Bob's Worth and a non-Betfair forumite 
Can't have Invictus, Join Together and to a lesser extent Sir Des Champs and Grands Crus. There my cards on the table
Walkon looks a decent e/w bet to me. Has won and Cheltenham and always shaped like he needs the trip.
Anybody heard if Call The Police will run here or in the Jewson? Interesting outsider imo
Grands Crus (2) , Bobs Worth (10/3) , Sir Des Champs (9/2) , First Lieutenant (5) , Join Together (7) , Bog Warrior (12) , Call The Police (25) , Lambro (25) , Walkon (33) , Cannington Brook (50) , Mossley (50) , Mr Moonshine (50) , Saint Are (66) , Benbane Head (80) , Gift of Dgab (80)
Bit (well,very) left field this - but seem to recall Tony Martin brought Gift of DGab to Plumpton for better ground - then it turned out heavy and they ran into Invictus.
Horse has plenty to find but has been running in the better races - if he does improve for further and better ground (and pedigree suggests he might well do), would not be without a squeak.
It's very competitive obviously but I've taken a bit of 80s ew (and backed Bob's Worth outright to prove I'm not going mad!)
Horse has plenty to find but has been running in the better races - if he does improve for further and better ground (and pedigree suggests he might well do), would not be without a squeak.
It's very competitive obviously but I've taken a bit of 80s ew (and backed Bob's Worth outright to prove I'm not going mad!)
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